La "révolution agraire" de l’Écosse, 1755-1815 : une construction historiographique? : étude de cas sur l’Aberdeenshire

L’Écosse du XVIIIe siècle connaît de grands changements qui seront à l’aune des transformations socio-économiques sous-tendant sa Révolution industrielle. L’historiographie sur le sujet est divisée entre deux visions du développement – nommées pour le bienfait de cette étude traditionnelle et révisionniste – à savoir si ces transformations valident la notion d’une « révolution agraire ». Cette étude propose une recension de ces deux courants et propose d’appliquer leur analyse sur une région circonscrite, l’Aberdeenshire. À l’aide de l’Old Statistical Account, source majeure pour l’étude de l’histoire moderne écossaise, nous tenterons de démontrer que le caractère particulier du développement des régions ne correspond pas à l’application des conclusions nationales. Nous accorderons une attention spéciale à la propriété foncière, à l’impact des enclosures et à la temporalité des changements. De par ses spécificités, et son retard de modernisation agraire et agricole, nous croyons que la région suit le schéma dressé par les historiens révisionnistes, c.-à-d. des changements structurels s’étendant sur un temps long et ne s’inscrivant pas directement dans la période 1755-1815, traditionnellement désignée comme « révolution agraire ». Il s’agirait plutôt d’une adaptation partielle et originale des nouvelles idées mises de l’avant par les protagonistes de la modernisation.

Étude sur l’oxygénation des lits capillaires du disque optique au cours du cycle menstruel chez les femmes

Il est connu qu’on retrouve chez les femmes en post-ménopause un risque plus important de développer des maladies oculaires comparativement aux hommes du même groupe d’âge. Il semble que les changements hormonaux, et en particulier la baisse importante des niveaux d’estradiol, secondaires à la sénescence folliculaire constituent un facteur étiologique à long terme. Cela étant, il est légitime de se demander si les variations des niveaux d’hormones sexuelles endogènes peuvent également occasionner des effets à court terme sur les tissus de l’œil. Cette interrogation constitue d’ailleurs le motif principal de l’élaboration de la présente étude. Sachant qu’il se produit chez les femmes non ménopausées des variations continuelles des niveaux d’hormones sexuelles stéroïdiennes au cours de leur cycle menstruel, des femmes en âge de procréer ont été recrutées comme sujets d’étude. Dans un deuxième temps, afin de trouver le paramètre d’intérêt, on a effectué une revue de la documentation scientifique qui révèle un fait bien établi : les estrogènes favorisent la vasodilatation des vaisseaux sanguins par l’intermédiaire du monoxyde d’azote, et permettent, par le fait même, l’accroissement du débit sanguin tissulaire. Or, comment mesurer des variations de débit sanguin dans des tissus oculaires? Comme il est expliqué dans la discussion du présent mémoire, les variations d’oxygénation dans un organe dont le métabolisme est relativement stable sont le reflet de variations de débit sanguin. Grâce à une technique de mesure basée sur la spectroréflectométrie, il est possible de mesurer le taux d’oxyhémoglobine (HbO2) des lits capillaires du disque optique. En observant les variations du taux d’oxyhémoglobine au cours du cycle menstruel chez les sujets, on peut ainsi mesurer l’effet des variations hormonales cycliques sur l’irrigation des tissus oculaires. En somme, l’objectif de cette recherche est de mieux comprendre, en suivant le cycle menstruel des femmes, l’effet des hormones sexuelles endogènes sur l’oxygénation des lits capillaires du disque optique. Étant à la base du métabolisme de l’œil, l’apport en oxygène et en divers substrat véhiculés par la circulation sanguine est important au maintien de la santé oculaire. L’éclaircissement du lien entre les hormones et l’oxygénation de la rétine constituerait un avancement important, puisqu’il permettrait de comprendre pourquoi certaines atteintes oculaires, comme la cécité, touchent davantage les femmes. Les résultats de cette étude ont démontré que le taux d’oxyhémoglobine mesuré dans les lits capillaires du disque optique de l’œil ne subit pratiquement pas de variations significatives durant le cycle menstruel lorsqu’on considère les incertitudes des valeurs mesurées. Également, on observe une variabilité similaire des taux d’oxyhémoglobine mesurés chez les femmes en âge de procréation et chez les hommes du même groupe d’âge. Cela suggère que les changements hormonaux cycliques, qui ne se produisent que chez les femmes, n’occasionnent probablement pas de variation significative mesurable du taux d’oxyhémoglobine. Bref, malgré les effets possibles des estrogènes sur le diamètre artériolaire, il semble que les mécanismes locaux de régulation du débit sanguin tissulaire maintiennent un état d’équilibre propre au tissu irrigué et adapté aux besoins métaboliques locaux.

Le jour où la Terre en avait vu d'autres. Tome 1 ; suivi de La tension ajarienne

La partie création de ce mémoire se veut soutenue par une tension narrative reliée à la curiosité suscitée par le personnage principal, de prime abord énigmatique, qui se dévoile de façon capricieuse par un changement constant de focalisation et de temporalité. Nathan vit à une ère où l’humanité a frôlé l’extinction, et où tout est à repenser après l’annihilation du virus ramenant les morts à la vie. N’ayant pas été témoin de ces horreurs, ses plus grandes préoccupations concernent son cheminement vers l’authenticité. Saltimbanque de métier, il voyage de communauté en communauté, où chacune a fait ses choix pour recréer le monde. Sa volonté de prôner l’art dans un processus de reconstruction sociale et sa poursuite d’une image perdue le pousseront toujours plus loin dans ses pérégrinations; vers des réalités qui le conduiront à redéfinir son univers. La partie essai s’interroge sur les procédés formant la tension narrative des romans d’Émile Ajar, pseudonyme laissant deviner la plume expérimentée de Romain Gary qui se réinvente dans l’anonymat. L’attention est centrée sur les jeux de narration, le rôle actanciel des personnages et l’orchestration formelle des récits, à savoir s’ils sont assez similaires pour lier les opus et les constituer en une série unifiée. Cette réflexion à la recherche de l’essence de l’oeuvre ajarienne, touchante par ses antihéros souvent démunis dans leur quête existentielle, a été une inspiration pour la rédaction de Le jour où la Terre en avait vu d’autres. Les rêves de Nathan sont racontés à la première personne, rejoignant certaines modalités ajariennes où la psyché des protagonistes se révèle par une narration au “je”. Les questionnements sur la tension narrative ont été déclencheurs de cette première démarche d’écriture romanesque, même si elle est située dans un cadre complètement autre et use d’une plume bien différente de celle d’Ajar.

A study on mitigating the effect of sulphates in lime stabilised Cochin marine clays

Soft clays known for their high compressibility, low stiffness and low shear strength are always associated with large settlement. In place soil treatment using calcium-based stabilizers like lime and cement is a feasible solution to readdress strength deficiencies and problematic shrink/swell behaviour of unstable subgrade soils. Out of these, lime has been proved unambiguously as the most effective and economical stabilising agent for marine clays. Lime stabilisation creates long-term chemical changes in unstable clay soils to create strong, but flexible, permanent structural layers in foundations and other pavement systems. Even though calcium-based stabilizers can improve engineering properties of soft clays, problems can arise when they are used in soils rich in sulphates. It is possible for marine clays to be enriched with sulphates, either by nature or due to the discharge of nearby industrial wastes containing sulphates. The presence of sulphates is reported to adversely affect the cation exchange and pozzolanic reactions of cement and lime treated soil systems. The anions of sulphates may combine with the available calcium and alumina, and form insoluble ettringite in the soil system. Literature on sulphate attack in lime treated marine clays reports that formation of ettringite in lime-sodium sulphate-clay system is capable of adversely affecting the engineering behavior of marine clays. Only very few studies have been conducted on soft marine clays found along the coastal belt of Kerala and that too, is limited to Cochin marine clays. The studies conducted also have the limitation that the strength behaviour of lime stabilised clay was investigated only for one year. Practically no data pertaining to long term adverse effects likely to be brought about by sulphates on the strength and compressibility characteristics of Cochin marine clays is available. The overriding goal of this investigation was thus to examine the effectiveness of lime stabilisation in Cochin marine clays under varying sulphate contents. The study aims to reveal the changes brought about by varying sulphate contents on both physical and engineering properties of these clays stabilised by lime and the results for various curing periods up to two years is presented in this thesis. Quite often the load causing an unacceptable settlement may be less than the load required to cause shear failure and therefore attempt has been made in this research to highlight sulphate induced changes in both the compressibility and strength characteristics of lime treated Cochin marine clays. The study also aimed at comparing the available IS methods for sulphate quantification and has attempted to determine the threshold level of sulphate likely make these clays vulnerable by lime stabilisation. Clays used in this study were obtained from two different sites in Kochi and contained sulphate in two different concentrations viz., 0.5% and 0.1%. Two different lime percentages were tried out, 3% and 6%. Sulphate content was varied from 1% to 4% by addition of reagent grade sodium sulphate. The long term influence of naturally present sulphate is also investigated. X-ray diffraction studies and SEM studies have been undertaken to understand how the soil-lime reactions are affected in the presence of sodium sulphate. Natural sulphate content of 0.1% did not seem to have influenced normal soil lime reactions but 0.5% sulphate could induce significant changes adversely in both compressibility and strength behaviour of lime treated clays after long duration. Compressibility is seen to increase drastically with increasing sulphate content suggesting formation of ettringite on curing for longer periods. Increase in compression index and decrease in bond strength with curing period underlined the adverse effects induced in lime treated marine clays by the presence of sulphates. Presence of sulphate in concentrations ranging from 0.5 % to 4% is capable of adversely affecting the strength of lime treated marine clays. Considerable decrease is observed with increasing concentrations of sulphate. Ettringite formation due to domination of sodium ions in the system was confirmed in mineralogical studies made. Barium chloride and barium hydroxide is capable of bringing about beneficial changes both in compressibility and strength characteristics of lime treated Cochin marine clays in the presence of varying concentrations of sulphate and is strongly influenced by curing time. Clay containing sodium sulphate has increased strength values when either of barium compounds was used with lime ascompared with specimens treated with lime only. Barium hydroxide is observed to remarkably increase the strength as compared to barium chloride,when used in conjunction with lime to counteract the effect of sulphate.

Dynamic characterization of olfactory receptors in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster

Temporal changes in odor concentration are vitally important to many animals orienting and navigating in their environment. How are such temporal changes detected? Within the scope of the present work an accurate stimulation and analysis system was developed to examine the dynamics of physiological properties of Drosophila melanogaster olfactory receptor organs. Subsequently a new method for delivering odor stimuli was tested and used to present the first dynamic characterization of olfactory receptors at the level of single neurons. Initially, recordings of the whole antenna were conducted while stimulating with different odors. The odor delivery system allowed the dynamic characterization of the whole fly antenna, including its sensilla and receptor neurons. Based on the obtained electroantennogram data a new odor delivery method called digital sequence method was developed. In addition the degree of accuracy was enhanced, initially using electroantennograms, and later recordings of odorant receptor cells at the single sensilla level. This work shows for the first time that different odors evoked different responses within one neuron depending on the chemical structure of the odor. The present work offers new insights into the dynamic properties of olfactory transduction in Drosophila melanogaster and describes time dependent parameters underlying these properties.

Large-Area Photo-Mosaics Using Global Alignment and Navigation Data

Seafloor imagery is a rich source of data for the study of biological and geological processes. Among several applications, still images of the ocean floor can be used to build image composites referred to as photo-mosaics. Photo-mosaics provide a wide-area visual representation of the benthos, and enable applications as diverse as geological surveys, mapping and detection of temporal changes in the morphology of biodiversity. We present an approach for creating globally aligned photo-mosaics using 3D position estimates provided by navigation sensors available in deep water surveys. Without image registration, such navigation data does not provide enough accuracy to produce useful composite images. Results from a challenging data set of the Lucky Strike vent field at the Mid Atlantic Ridge are reported

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales: the spatial variation of topsoil nutrient status and pH between 1971 and 2001

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme (RSSS) has monitored the soil of agricultural land in England and Wales since 1969. Here we describe the first spatial analysis of the data from these surveys using geostatistics. Four years of data (1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001) were chosen to examine the nutrient (available K, Mg and P) and pH status of the soil. At each farm, four fields were sampled; however, for the earlier years, coordinates were available for the farm only and not for each field. The averaged data for each farm were used for spatial analysis and the variograms showed spatial structure even with the smaller sample size. These variograms provide a reasonable summary of the larger scale of variation identified from the data of the more intensively sampled National Soil Inventory. Maps of kriged predictions of K generally show larger values in the central and southeastern areas (above 200 mg L-1) and an increase in values in the west over time, whereas Mg is fairly stable over time. The kriged predictions of P show a decline over time, particularly in the east, and those of pH show an increase in the east over time. Disjunctive kriging was used to examine temporal changes in available P using probabilities less than given thresholds of this element. The RSSS was not designed for spatial analysis, but the results show that the data from these surveys are suitable for this purpose. The results of the spatial analysis, together with those of the statistical analyses, provide a comprehensive view of the RSSS database as a basis for monitoring the soil. These data should be taken into account when future national soil monitoring schemes are designed.

Metal bioaccumulation and cellular fractionation in an epigeic earthworm (Lumbricus rubellus): the interactive influences of population exposure histories, site-specific geochemistry and mitochondrial genotype

Subcellular fractionation techniques were used to describe temporal changes (at intervals from T0 to T70 days) in the Pb, Zn and P partitioning profiles of Lumbricus rubellus populations from one calcareous (MDH) and one acidic (MCS) geographically isolated Pb/Zn-mine sites and one reference site (CPF). MDH and MCS individuals were laboratory maintained on their native field soils; CPF worms were exposed to both MDH and MCS soils. Site-specific differences in metal partitioning were found: notably, the putatively metal-adapted populations, MDH and MCS, preferentially partitioned higher proportions of their accumulated tissue metal burdens into insoluble CaPO4-rich organelles compared with naive counterparts, CPF. Thus, it is plausible that efficient metal immobilization is a phenotypic trait characterising metal tolerant ecotypes. Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase II (COII) genotyping revealed that the populations indigenous to mine and reference soils belong to distinct genetic lineages, differentiated by 13%, with 7 haplotypes within the reference site lineage but fewer (3 and 4, respectively) in the lineage common to the two mine sites. Collectively, these observations raise the possibility that site-related genotype differences could influence the toxico-availability of metals and, thus, represent a potential confounding variable in field-based eco-toxicological assessments.

Examination of the persistency of milk fatty acid composition responses to fish oil and sunflower oil in the diet of dairy cows

Based on the potential benefits of cis-9, trans-11 conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) for human health, there is a need to develop effective strategies for enhancing milk fat CLA concentrations. Levels of cis-9, trans-11 CLA in milk can be increased by supplements of fish oil (FO) and sunflower oil (SO), but there is considerable variation in the response. Part of this variance may reflect time-dependent ruminal adaptations to high levels of lipid in the diet, which lead to alterations in the formation of specific biohydrogenation intermediates. To test this hypothesis, 16 late lactation Holstein-British Friesian cows were used in a repeated measures randomized block design to examine milk fatty acid composition responses to FO and SO in the diet over a 28-d period. Cows were allocated at random to corn silage-based rations (8 per treatment) containing 0 (control) or 45 g of oil supplement/ kg of dry matter consisting (1:2; wt/wt) of FO and SO (FSO), and milk composition was determined on alternate days from d 1. Compared with the control, the FSO diet decreased mean dry matter intake (21.1 vs. 17.9 kg/d), milk fat (47.7 vs. 32.6 g/kg), and protein content (36.1 vs. 33.3 g/kg), but had no effect on milk yield (27.1 vs. 26.4 kg/d). Reductions in milk fat content relative to the FSO diet were associated with increases in milk trans-10 18: 1, trans-10, cis-12 CLA, and trans-9, cis-11 CLA concentrations (r(2) = 0.74, 0.57, and 0.80, respectively). Compared with the control, the FSO diet reduced milk 4: 0 to 18: 0 and cis 18:1 content and increased trans 18:1, trans 18:2, cis-9, trans-11 CLA, 20: 5 n-3, and 22: 6 n-3 concentrations. The FSO diet caused a rapid elevation in milk cis-9, trans-11 CLA content, reaching a maximum of 5.37 g/100 g of fatty acids on d 5, but these increases were transient, declining to 2.35 g/100 g of fatty acids by d 15. They remained relatively constant thereafter. Even though concentrations of trans-11 18: 1 followed the same pattern of temporal changes as cis-9, trans-11 CLA, the total trans 18:1 content of FSO milk was unchanged because of the concomitant increases in the concentration of other isomers (Delta(4-10) and Delta(12-15)), predominantely trans-10 18:1. In conclusion, supplementing diets with FSO enhances milk fat cis-9, trans-11 CLA content, but the high level of enrichment declines because of changes in ruminal biohydrogenation that result in trans-10 replacing trans-11 as the major 18:1 biohydrogenation intermediate formed in the rumen.

Fecal microbiota in patients receiving enteral feeding are highly variable and may be altered in those who develop diarrhea

Background: The pathogenesis of diarrhea in patients receiving enteral feeding includes colonic water secretion, antibiotic prescription, and enteropathogenic colonization, each of which involves an interaction with the gastrointestinal microbiota. Objective: The objective was to investigate temporal changes in the concentrations of fecal microbiota and short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) in patients starting 14-d of enteral feeding and to compare these changes between patients who do and do not develop diarrhea. Design: Twenty patients starting exclusive nasogastric enteral feeding were monitored for 14 d. Fecal samples were collected at the start, middle, and end of this period and were analyzed for major bacterial groups by using culture independent fluorescence in situ hybridization and for SCFAs by using gas-liquid chromatography. Results: Although no significant changes in fecal microbiota or SCFAs were observed during enteral feeding, stark alterations occurred within individual patients. Ten patients (50%) developed diarrhea, and these patients had significantly higher concentrations of clostridia (P = 0.026) and lower concentrations (P = 0.069) and proportions (P = 0.029) of bifidobacteria. Patients with and without diarrhea had differences in the proportion of bifidobacteria (median: 0.4% and 3.7%; interquartile range: 0.8 compared with 4.3; P = 0.035) and clostridia (median: 10.4% and 3.7%; interquartile range: 14.7 compared with 7.0; P = 0.063), respectively, even at the start of enteral feeding. Patients who developed diarrhea had higher concentrations of total fecal SCFAs (P = 0.044), acetate (P = 0.029), and butyrate (P = 0.055). Conclusion: Intestinal dysbiosis occurs in patients who develop diarrhea during enteral feeding and may be involved in its pathogenesis. Am J Clin Nutr 2009; 89: 240-7.

An eye for an eye: robust motion segmentation by applying the latest in human vision research

Automatically extracting interesting objects from videos is a very challenging task and is applicable to many research areas such robotics, medical imaging, content based indexing and visual surveillance. Automated visual surveillance is a major research area in computational vision and a commonly applied technique in an attempt to extract objects of interest is that of motion segmentation. Motion segmentation relies on the temporal changes that occur in video sequences to detect objects, but as a technique it presents many challenges that researchers have yet to surmount. Changes in real-time video sequences not only include interesting objects, environmental conditions such as wind, cloud cover, rain and snow may be present, in addition to rapid lighting changes, poor footage quality, moving shadows and reflections. The list provides only a sample of the challenges present. This thesis explores the use of motion segmentation as part of a computational vision system and provides solutions for a practical, generic approach with robust performance, using current neuro-biological, physiological and psychological research in primate vision as inspiration.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

The coupled δ13C-radiocarbon systematics of three Late Glacial/early Holocene speleothems: insights into soil and caveprocesses at climatic transitions

The coupled δ13C-radiocarbon systematics of threeEuropean stalagmites deposited during the Late Glacial and early Holocene were investigated to understand better how the carbon isotope systematics of speleothems respond to climate transitions. The emphasis is on understanding how speleothems may record climate-driven changes in the proportions of biogenic (soil carbon) and limestone bedrock derived carbon. At two of the three sites, the combined δ13C and 14C data argue against greater inputs of limestone carbon as the sole cause of the observed shift to higher δ13C during the cold Younger Dryas. In these stalagmites (GAR-01 from La Garma cave, N. Spain and So-1 from Sofular cave, Turkey), the combined changes in δ13C and initial 14C activities suggest enhanced decomposition of old stored, more recalcitrant, soil carbon at the onset of the warmer early Holocene. Alternative explanations involving gradual temporal changes between open- and closed-system behaviour during the Late Glacial are difficult to reconcile with observed changes in speleothem δ13C and the growth rates. In contrast, a stalagmite from Pindal cave (N. Spain) indicates an abrupt change in carbon inputs linked to local hydrological and disequilibrium isotope fractionation effects, rather than climate change. For the first time, it is shown that while the initial 14C activities of all three stalagmites broadly follow the contemporaneous atmospheric 14C trends (the Younger Dryas atmospheric 14C anomaly can be clearly discerned), subtle changes in speleothem initial 14C activities are linked to climate-driven changes in soil carbon turnover at a climate transition.

Sources of variation in the ampicillin-resistant Escherichia coli concentration in the feces of organic broiler chickens

Currently, there are limited published data for the population dynamics of antimicrobial-resistant commensal bacteria. This study was designed to evaluate both the proportions of the Escherichia coli populations that are resistant to ampicillin at the level of the individual chicken on commercial broiler farms and the feasibility of obtaining repeated measures of fecal E. coli concentrations. Short-term temporal variation in the concentration of fecal E. coli was investigated, and a preliminary assessment was made of potential factors involved in the shedding of high numbers of ampicillin-resistant E. coli by growing birds in the absence of the use of antimicrobial drugs. Multilevel linear regression modeling revealed that the largest component of random variation in log-transformed fecal E. coli concentrations was seen between sampling occasions for individual birds. The incorporation of fixed effects into the model demonstrated that the older, heavier birds in the study were significantly more likely (P = 0.0003) to shed higher numbers of ampicillin-resistant E. coli. This association between increasing weight and high shedding was not seen for the total fecal E. coli population (P = 0.71). This implies that, in the absence of the administration of antimicrobial drugs, the proportion of fecal E. coli that was resistant to ampicillin increased as the birds grew. This study has shown that it is possible to collect quantitative microbiological data on broiler farms and that such data could make valuable contributions to risk assessments concerning the transfer of resistant bacteria between animal and human populations.

Rapid assessment of historic, current and future habitat quality for biodiversity around UK Natura 2000 sites

Changes in landscape composition and structure may impact the conservation and management of protected areas. Species that depend on specific habitats are at risk of extinction when these habitats are degraded or lost. Designing robust methods to evaluate landscape composition will assist decision- and policy-making in emerging landscapes. This paper describes a rapid assessment methodology aimed at evaluating landcover quality for birds, plants, butterflies and bees around seven UK Natura 2000 sites. An expert panel assigned quality values to standard Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) landcover classes for each taxonomic group. Quality was assessed based on historical (1950, 1990), current (2000) and future (2030) land-cover data, the last projected using three alternative scenarios: a growth applied strategy (GRAS), a business-as-might-beusual (BAMBU) scenario, and sustainable European development goal (SEDG) scenario. A quantitative quality index weighted the area of each land-cover parcel with a taxa-specific quality measure. Land parcels with high quality for all taxonomic groups were evaluated for temporal changes in area, size and adjacency. For all sites and taxonomic groups, the rate of deterioration of land-cover quality was greater between 1950 and 1990 than current rates or as modelled using the alternative future scenarios (2000– 2030). Model predictions indicated land-cover quality stabilized over time under the GRAS scenario, and was close to stable for the BAMBU scenario. The SEDG scenario suggested an ongoing loss of quality, though this was lower than the historical rate of c. 1% loss per decade. None of the future scenarios showed accelerated fragmentation, but rather increases in the area, adjacency and diversity of high quality land parcels in the landscape.