Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Comparison of energy evaluation systems and a mechanistic model for milk production by dairy cattle offered fresh grass-based diets

Grass-based diets are of increasing social-economic importance in dairy cattle farming, but their low supply of glucogenic nutrients may limit the production of milk. Current evaluation systems that assess the energy supply and requirements are based on metabolisable energy (ME) or net energy (NE). These systems do not consider the characteristics of the energy delivering nutrients. In contrast, mechanistic models take into account the site of digestion, the type of nutrient absorbed and the type of nutrient required for production of milk constituents, and may therefore give a better prediction of supply and requirement of nutrients. The objective of the present study is to compare the ability of three energy evaluation systems, viz. the Dutch NE system, the agricultural and food research council (AFRC) ME system, and the feed into milk (FIM) ME system, and of a mechanistic model based on Dijkstra et al. [Simulation of digestion in cattle fed sugar cane: prediction of nutrient supply for milk production with locally available supplements. J. Agric. Sci., Cambridge 127, 247-60] and Mills et al. [A mechanistic model of whole-tract digestion and methanogenesis in the lactating dairy cow: model development, evaluation and application. J. Anim. Sci. 79, 1584-97] to predict the feed value of grass-based diets for milk production. The dataset for evaluation consists of 41 treatments of grass-based diets (at least 0.75 g ryegrass/g diet on DM basis). For each model, the predicted energy or nutrient supply, based on observed intake, was compared with predicted requirement based on observed performance. Assessment of the error of energy or nutrient supply relative to requirement is made by calculation of mean square prediction error (MSPE) and by concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). All energy evaluation systems predicted energy requirement to be lower (6-11%) than energy supply. The root MSPE (expressed as a proportion of the supply) was lowest for the mechanistic model (0.061), followed by the Dutch NE system (0.082), FIM ME system (0.097) and AFRCME system(0.118). For the energy evaluation systems, the error due to overall bias of prediction dominated the MSPE, whereas for the mechanistic model, proportionally 0.76 of MSPE was due to random variation. CCC analysis confirmed the higher accuracy and precision of the mechanistic model compared with energy evaluation systems. The error of prediction was positively related to grass protein content for the Dutch NE system, and was also positively related to grass DMI level for all models. In conclusion, current energy evaluation systems overestimate energy supply relative to energy requirement on grass-based diets for dairy cattle. The mechanistic model predicted glucogenic nutrients to limit performance of dairy cattle on grass-based diets, and proved to be more accurate and precise than the energy systems. The mechanistic model could be improved by allowing glucose maintenance and utilization requirements parameters to be variable. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reaching for the skies: Time and turbulence in digital technologies and practices

This research examines dynamics associated with new representational technologies in complex organizations through a study of the use of a Single Model Environment, prototyping and simulation tools in the mega-project to construct Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport, London. The ambition of the client, BAA. was to change industrial practices reducing project costs and time to delivery through new contractual arrangements and new digitally-enabled collaborative ways of working. The research highlights changes over time and addresses two areas of 'turbulence' in the use of: 1) technologies, where there is a dynamic tension between desires to constantly improve, change and update digital technologies and the need to standardise practices, maintaining and defending the overall integrity of the system; and 2) representations, where dynamics result from the responsibilities and liabilities associated with sharing of digital representations and a lack of trust in the validity of data from other firms. These dynamics are tracked across three stages of this well-managed and innovative project and indicate the generic need to treat digital infrastructure as an ongoing strategic issue.

Interaction of sulphur-containing aroma compounds with proteins in both model systems and real food systems

Irreversible binding of key flavour disulphides to ovalbumin has been shown previously to occur in model systems. The extent of binding is determined by the availability of the sulphydryl groups to participate in disulphide exchange, influenced either by pH, or the state of the protein (native or heat-denatured). In this study, two further proteins, one with sulphydryl groups available in the native state (beta-lactoglobulin) and one with no sulphydryl groups in the native state (lysozyme) were used to confirm this hypothesis. When the investigation was extended to real food systems, a similar effect was shown when a commercial meat flavouring containing disulphides was added to heat-denatured ovalbumin. Furthermore, comparison of the volatiles generated from onions, cooked either alone, or in the presence of meat, showed a significant reduction of key onion-derived disulphides when cooked in the presence of meat, and an even greater reduction of trisulphides. These findings may have implications for consumer acceptance of food products; where these compounds are used as flavourings or where they occur naturally.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices of farmers on rodent pests and their management in the lowlands of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor, Philippines

A survey of the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of 100 rice farmers and 50 coconut farmers was conducted in the coastal lowland agro-ecosystems of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor, Luzon, Philippines to identify current rodent management practices and to understand the extent of rat damage and the attitudes of farmers to community actions for rodent management. Pests were most commonly listed as one of the three most important rice and coconut production constraints. Other major crop production constraints were typhoons and insufficient water. Farmers consider rats to be the major pest of coconut and of rice during the wet season rice crop, with average yield losses of 3.0% and 13.2%, respectively. Rice and coconut farmers practised a wide range of rodent management techniques. These included scrub clearance, hunting and trapping. Of the 42 rice farmers and 3 coconut farmers that applied rodenticides to control rodents, all used the acute rodenticide, zinc phosphide. However, only ten rice farmers (23.8%) applied rodenticides prior to the booting stage and only seven farmers (15.6%) conducted pre-baiting before applying zinc phosphide. The majority of farmers belonged to farmer organisations and believed that rat control can only be done by farmers working together. However, during the last cropping season, less than a third of rice farmers (31.2%) applied rodent management as a group. In order to reduce the impact of rodents on the farmers of the coastal lowlands of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor, integrated management strategies need to be developed that specifically target the pest rodents in a sustainable manner, and community actions for rodent management should be promoted.