Knowledge based improvement:simulation and artificial intelligence for identifying and improving human decision-making in an operations systems

The performance of most operations systems is significantly affected by the interaction of human decision-makers. A methodology, based on the use of visual interactive simulation (VIS) and artificial intelligence (AI), is described that aims to identify and improve human decision-making in operations systems. The methodology, known as 'knowledge-based improvement' (KBI), elicits knowledge from a decision-maker via a VIS and then uses AI methods to represent decision-making. By linking the VIS and AI representation, it is possible to predict the performance of the operations system under different decision-making strategies and to search for improved strategies. The KBI methodology is applied to the decision-making surrounding unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant.

Analysis and simulation of computer controlled cellular mobile radio systems

Cellular mobile radio systems will be of increasing importance in the future. This thesis describes research work concerned with the teletraffic capacity and the canputer control requirements of such systems. The work involves theoretical analysis and experimental investigations using digital computer simulation. New formulas are derived for the congestion in single-cell systems in which there are both land-to-mobile and mobile-to-mobile calls and in which mobile-to-mobile calls go via the base station. Two approaches are used, the first yields modified forms of the familiar Erlang and Engset formulas, while the second gives more complicated but more accurate formulas. The results of computer simulations to establish the accuracy of the formulas are described. New teletraffic formulas are also derived for the congestion in multi -cell systems. Fixed, dynamic and hybrid channel assignments are considered. The formulas agree with previously published simulation results. Simulation programs are described for the evaluation of the speech traffic of mobiles and for the investigation of a possible computer network for the control of the speech traffic. The programs were developed according to the structured progranming approach leading to programs of modular construction. Two simulation methods are used for the speech traffic: the roulette method and the time-true method. The first is economical but has some restriction, while the second is expensive but gives comprehensive answers. The proposed control network operates at three hierarchical levels performing various control functions which include: the setting-up and clearing-down of calls, the hand-over of calls between cells and the address-changing of mobiles travelling between cities. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the control netwvork and indicate that small mini -computers inter-connected via voice grade data channels would be capable of providing satisfactory control

Simulation of optical fibre communication systems influenced by stimulated brillouin scattering

Boyd's SBS model which includes distributed thermal acoustic noise (DTAN) has been enhanced to enable the Stokes-spontaneous density depletion noise (SSDDN) component of the transmitted optical field to be simulated, probably for the first time, as well as the full transmitted field. SSDDN would not be generated from previous SBS models in which a Stokes seed replaces DTAN. SSDDN becomes the dominant form of transmitted SBS noise as model fibre length (MFL) is increased but its optical power spectrum remains independent of MFL. Simulations of the full transmitted field and SSDDN for different MFLs allow prediction of the optical power spectrum, or system performance parameters which depend on this, for typical communication link lengths which are too long for direct simulation. The SBS model has also been innovatively improved by allowing the Brillouin Shift Frequency (BS) to vary over the model fibre length, for the nonuniform fibre model (NFM) mode, or to remain constant, for the uniform fibre model (UFM) mode. The assumption of a Gaussian probability density function (pdf) for the BSF in the NFM has been confirmed by means of an analysis of reported Brillouin amplified power spectral measurements for the simple case of a nominally step-index single-mode pure silica core fibre. The BSF pdf could be modified to match the Brillouin gain spectra of other fibre types if required. For both models, simulated backscattered and output powers as functions of input power agree well with those from a reported experiment for fitting Brillouin gain coefficients close to theoretical. The NFM and UFM Brillouin gain spectra are then very similar from half to full maximum but diverge at lower values. Consequently, NFM and UFM transmitted SBS noise powers inferred for long MFLs differ by 1-2 dB over the input power range of 0.15 dBm. This difference could be significant for AM-VSB CATV links at some channel frequencies. The modelled characteristic of Carrier-to-Noise Ratio (CNR) as a function of input power for a single intensity modulated subcarrier is in good agreement with the characteristic reported for an experiment when either the UFM or NFM is used. The difference between the two modelled characteristics would have been more noticeable for a higher fibre length or a lower subcarrier frequency.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.

The analogue computer simulation of integrated chemical plant and controller systems

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