942 resultados para Surf Beat


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A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of the Masters in Molecular Genetics and Biomedicine

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This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

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\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

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RoboCup was created in 1996 by a group of Japanese, American, and European Artificial Intelligence and Robotics researchers with a formidable, visionary long-term challenge: “By 2050 a team of robot soccer players will beat the human World Cup champion team.” At that time, in the mid 90s, when there were very few effective mobile robots and the Honda P2 humanoid robot was presented to a stunning public for the first time also in 1996, the RoboCup challenge, set as an adversarial game between teams of autonomous robots, was fascinating and exciting. RoboCup enthusiastically and concretely introduced three robot soccer leagues, namely “Simulation,” “Small-Size,” and “Middle-Size,” as we explain below, and organized its first competitions at IJCAI’97 in Nagoya with a surprising number of 100 participants [RC97]. It was the beginning of what became a continously growing research community. RoboCup established itself as a structured organization (the RoboCup Federation www.RoboCup.org). RoboCup fosters annual competition events, where the scientific challenges faced by the researchers are addressed in a setting that is attractive also to the general public. and the RoboCup events are the ones most popular and attended in the research fields of AI and Robotics.RoboCup further includes a technical symposium with contributions relevant to the RoboCup competitions and beyond to the general AI and robotics.

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OBJECTIVE: To report the hemodynamic and functional responses obtained with clinical optimization guided by hemodynamic parameters in patients with severe and refractory heart failure. METHODS: Invasive hemodynamic monitoring using right heart catheterization aimed to reach low filling pressures and peripheral resistance. Frequent adjustments of intravenous diuretics and vasodilators were performed according to the hemodynamic measurements. RESULTS: We assessed 19 patients (age = 48±12 years and ejection fraction = 21±5%) with severe heart failure. The intravenous use of diuretics and vasodilators reduced by 12 mm Hg (relative reduction of 43%) pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (P<0.001), with a concomitant increment of 6 mL per beat in stroke volume (relative increment of 24%, P<0.001). We observed significant associations between pulmonary artery occlusion pressure and mean pulmonary artery pressure (r=0.76; P<0.001) and central venous pressure (r=0.63; P<0.001). After clinical optimization, improvement in functional class occurred (P< 0.001), with a tendency towards improvement in ejection fraction and no impairment to renal function. CONCLUSION: Optimization guided by hemodynamic parameters in patients with refractory heart failure provides a significant improvement in the hemodynamic profile with concomitant improvement in functional class. This study emphasizes that adjustments in blood volume result in imme-diate benefits for patients with severe heart failure.

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Background: The mechanisms associated with the cardiovascular consequences of obstructive sleep apnea include abrupt changes in autonomic tone, which can trigger cardiac arrhythmias. The authors hypothesized that nocturnal cardiac arrhythmia occurs more frequently in patients with obstructive sleep apnea. Objective: To analyze the relationship between obstructive sleep apnea and abnormal heart rhythm during sleep in a population sample. Methods: Cross-sectional study with 1,101 volunteers, who form a representative sample of the city of São Paulo. The overnight polysomnography was performed using an EMBLA® S7000 digital system during the regular sleep schedule of the individual. The electrocardiogram channel was extracted, duplicated, and then analyzed using a Holter (Cardio Smart®) system. Results: A total of 767 participants (461 men) with a mean age of 42.00 ± 0.53 years, were included in the analysis. At least one type of nocturnal cardiac rhythm disturbance (atrial/ventricular arrhythmia or beat) was observed in 62.7% of the sample. The occurrence of nocturnal cardiac arrhythmias was more frequent with increased disease severity. Rhythm disturbance was observed in 53.3% of the sample without breathing sleep disorders, whereas 92.3% of patients with severe obstructive sleep apnea showed cardiac arrhythmia. Isolated atrial and ventricular ectopy was more frequent in patients with moderate/severe obstructive sleep apnea when compared to controls (p < 0.001). After controlling for potential confounding factors, age, sex and apnea-hypopnea index were associated with nocturnal cardiac arrhythmia. Conclusion: Nocturnal cardiac arrhythmia occurs more frequently in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and the prevalence increases with disease severity. Age, sex, and the Apnea-hypopnea index were predictors of arrhythmia in this sample.

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Background:Cardiovascular diseases affect people worldwide. Individuals with Down Syndrome (DS) have an up to sixteen-time greater risk of mortality from cardiovascular diseases.Objective:To evaluate the effects of aerobic and resistance exercises on blood pressure and hemodynamic variables of young individuals with DS.Methods:A total of 29 young individuals with DS participated in the study. They were divided into two groups: aerobic training (AT) (n = 14), and resistance training (TR) (n = 15). Their mean age was 15.7 ± 2.82 years. The training program lasted 12 weeks, and had a frequency of three times a week for AT and twice a week for RT. AT was performed in treadmill/ bicycle ergometer, at an intensity between 50%-70% of the HR reserve. RT comprised nine exercises with three sets of 12 repetition-maximum. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean blood pressure (MBP) and hemodynamic variables were assessed beat-to-beat using the Finometer device before/after the training program. Descriptive analysis, the Shapiro-Wilk test to check the normality of data, and the two-way ANOVA for repeated measures were used to compare pre- and post-training variables. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated to correlate hemodynamic variables. The SPSS version 18.0 was used with the significance level set at p < 0.05.Results:After twelve weeks of aerobic and/or resistance training, significant reductions in variables SBP, DBP and MBP were observed.Conclusion:This study suggests a chronic hypotensive effect of moderate aerobic and resistance exercises on young individuals with DS.

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AbstractBackground:One of the most important thyroid hormone targets is the cardiovascular system. Hemodynamic changes, such as decreased resting heart rate (HR), myocardial contractility, and cardiac output, and increased diastolic pressure and systemic vascular resistance, have been observed in hypothyroid patients. Moreover, in these patients, ECG changes include sinus bradycardia and low voltage complexes (P waves or QRS complexes).Objective:This study aimed at evaluating the prophylactic effect of apelin on HR changes and QRS voltage that occur in propylthiouracil (PTU)-induced hypothyroid rats.Method:In this study, 48 adult male Wistar rats weighing 170-235g were randomly divided into 6 groups: Control group (normal saline ip injection + tap water gavage); P group (PTU 0.05%, in drinking water); A group (apelin 200 µg.kg-1.day-1, ip); PA group [co-administration of PTU and apelin]; PT group [co-administration of PTU + T4 (0.2 mg/g per day, gavage)]; and PAT group (co-administration of PTU, apelin and T4). All experiments were performed for 28 consecutive days, and then the animals were anesthetized with an ip injection of ketamine (80 mg/kg) and xylazine (12 mg/kg). Lead II electrocardiogram was recorded to calculate HR and QRS voltage.Results:Heart rate and QRS voltage increased more significantly in the hypothyroid group that consumed both apelin and T4 (201 ± 4 beat/min, 0.71 ± 0.02 mv vs. hypothyroid 145 ± 9 beat/min, 0.563 ± 0.015 mv; respectively).Conclusion:The co-administration of apelin and T4 showed a protective effect on QRS voltage and HR in PTU‑induced hypothyroid rats.

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Background:Diabetes affects approximately 250 million people in the world. Cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy is a common complication of diabetes that leads to severe postural hypotension, exercise intolerance, and increased incidence of silent myocardial infarction.Objective:To determine the variability of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) in recently diagnosed diabetic patients.Methods:The study included 30 patients with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes of less than 2 years and 30 healthy controls. We used a Finapres® device to measure during five minutes beat-to-beat HR and blood pressure in three experimental conditions: supine position, standing position, and rhythmic breathing at 0.1 Hz. The results were analyzed in the time and frequency domains.Results:In the HR analysis, statistically significant differences were found in the time domain, specifically on short-term values such as standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN), root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD), and number of pairs of successive NNs that differ by more than 50 ms (pNN50). In the BP analysis, there were no significant differences, but there was a sympathetic dominance in all three conditions. The baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) decreased in patients with early diabetes compared with healthy subjects during the standing maneuver.Conclusions:There is a decrease in HR variability in patients with early type 2 diabetes. No changes were observed in the BP analysis in the supine position, but there were changes in BRS with the standing maneuver, probably due to sympathetic hyperactivity.

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The main object of the present paper consists in giving formulas and methods which enable us to determine the minimum number of repetitions or of individuals necessary to garantee some extent the success of an experiment. The theoretical basis of all processes consists essentially in the following. Knowing the frequency of the desired p and of the non desired ovents q we may calculate the frequency of all possi- ble combinations, to be expected in n repetitions, by expanding the binomium (p-+q)n. Determining which of these combinations we want to avoid we calculate their total frequency, selecting the value of the exponent n of the binomium in such a way that this total frequency is equal or smaller than the accepted limit of precision n/pª{ 1/n1 (q/p)n + 1/(n-1)| (q/p)n-1 + 1/ 2!(n-2)| (q/p)n-2 + 1/3(n-3) (q/p)n-3... < Plim - -(1b) There does not exist an absolute limit of precision since its value depends not only upon psychological factors in our judgement, but is at the same sime a function of the number of repetitions For this reasen y have proposed (1,56) two relative values, one equal to 1-5n as the lowest value of probability and the other equal to 1-10n as the highest value of improbability, leaving between them what may be called the "region of doubt However these formulas cannot be applied in our case since this number n is just the unknown quantity. Thus we have to use, instead of the more exact values of these two formulas, the conventional limits of P.lim equal to 0,05 (Precision 5%), equal to 0,01 (Precision 1%, and to 0,001 (Precision P, 1%). The binominal formula as explained above (cf. formula 1, pg. 85), however is of rather limited applicability owing to the excessive calculus necessary, and we have thus to procure approximations as substitutes. We may use, without loss of precision, the following approximations: a) The normal or Gaussean distribution when the expected frequency p has any value between 0,1 and 0,9, and when n is at least superior to ten. b) The Poisson distribution when the expected frequecy p is smaller than 0,1. Tables V to VII show for some special cases that these approximations are very satisfactory. The praticai solution of the following problems, stated in the introduction can now be given: A) What is the minimum number of repititions necessary in order to avoid that any one of a treatments, varieties etc. may be accidentally always the best, on the best and second best, or the first, second, and third best or finally one of the n beat treatments, varieties etc. Using the first term of the binomium, we have the following equation for n: n = log Riim / log (m:) = log Riim / log.m - log a --------------(5) B) What is the minimun number of individuals necessary in 01der that a ceratin type, expected with the frequency p, may appaer at least in one, two, three or a=m+1 individuals. 1) For p between 0,1 and 0,9 and using the Gaussean approximation we have: on - ó. p (1-p) n - a -1.m b= δ. 1-p /p e c = m/p } -------------------(7) n = b + b² + 4 c/ 2 n´ = 1/p n cor = n + n' ---------- (8) We have to use the correction n' when p has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. The greek letters delta represents in the present esse the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution for the three conventional limits of precision : 1,64; 2,33; and 3,09 respectively. h we are only interested in having at least one individual, and m becomes equal to zero, the formula reduces to : c= m/p o para a = 1 a = { b + b²}² = b² = δ2 1- p /p }-----------------(9) n = 1/p n (cor) = n + n´ 2) If p is smaller than 0,1 we may use table 1 in order to find the mean m of a Poisson distribution and determine. n = m: p C) Which is the minimun number of individuals necessary for distinguishing two frequencies p1 and p2? 1) When pl and p2 are values between 0,1 and 0,9 we have: n = { δ p1 ( 1-pi) + p2) / p2 (1 - p2) n= 1/p1-p2 }------------ (13) n (cor) We have again to use the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution. The correction n' should be used if at least one of the valors pl or p2 has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. A more complicated formula may be used in cases where whe want to increase the precision : n (p1 - p2) δ { p1 (1- p2 ) / n= m δ = δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p2 ( 1 - p2) c= m / p1 - p2 n = { b2 + 4 4 c }2 }--------- (14) n = 1/ p1 - p2 2) When both pl and p2 are smaller than 0,1 we determine the quocient (pl-r-p2) and procure the corresponding number m2 of a Poisson distribution in table 2. The value n is found by the equation : n = mg /p2 ------------- (15) D) What is the minimun number necessary for distinguishing three or more frequencies, p2 p1 p3. If the frequecies pl p2 p3 are values between 0,1 e 0,9 we have to solve the individual equations and sue the higest value of n thus determined : n 1.2 = {δ p1 (1 - p1) / p1 - p2 }² = Fiim n 1.2 = { δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p1 ( 1 - p1) }² } -- (16) Delta represents now the bilateral limits of the : Gaussean distrioution : 1,96-2,58-3,29. 2) No table was prepared for the relatively rare cases of a comparison of threes or more frequencies below 0,1 and in such cases extremely high numbers would be required. E) A process is given which serves to solve two problemr of informatory nature : a) if a special type appears in n individuals with a frequency p(obs), what may be the corresponding ideal value of p(esp), or; b) if we study samples of n in diviuals and expect a certain type with a frequency p(esp) what may be the extreme limits of p(obs) in individual farmlies ? I.) If we are dealing with values between 0,1 and 0,9 we may use table 3. To solve the first question we select the respective horizontal line for p(obs) and determine which column corresponds to our value of n and find the respective value of p(esp) by interpolating between columns. In order to solve the second problem we start with the respective column for p(esp) and find the horizontal line for the given value of n either diretly or by approximation and by interpolation. 2) For frequencies smaller than 0,1 we have to use table 4 and transform the fractions p(esp) and p(obs) in numbers of Poisson series by multiplication with n. Tn order to solve the first broblem, we verify in which line the lower Poisson limit is equal to m(obs) and transform the corresponding value of m into frequecy p(esp) by dividing through n. The observed frequency may thus be a chance deviate of any value between 0,0... and the values given by dividing the value of m in the table by n. In the second case we transform first the expectation p(esp) into a value of m and procure in the horizontal line, corresponding to m(esp) the extreme values om m which than must be transformed, by dividing through n into values of p(obs). F) Partial and progressive tests may be recomended in all cases where there is lack of material or where the loss of time is less importent than the cost of large scale experiments since in many cases the minimun number necessary to garantee the results within the limits of precision is rather large. One should not forget that the minimun number really represents at the same time a maximun number, necessary only if one takes into consideration essentially the disfavorable variations, but smaller numbers may frequently already satisfactory results. For instance, by definition, we know that a frequecy of p means that we expect one individual in every total o(f1-p). If there were no chance variations, this number (1- p) will be suficient. and if there were favorable variations a smaller number still may yield one individual of the desired type. r.nus trusting to luck, one may start the experiment with numbers, smaller than the minimun calculated according to the formulas given above, and increase the total untill the desired result is obtained and this may well b ebefore the "minimum number" is reached. Some concrete examples of this partial or progressive procedure are given from our genetical experiments with maize.

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The temporal variability of benthic macrofauna on Cassino beach, southernmost Brazil, was studied for a period of one year (June 2004 to May 2005) based on monthly sampling. Three sites were selected distant 50m from each other. At each site, 3 transects were established, 2m equidistant from one another. Each transect extended from the base of the primary dunes to the inner surf zone at approximately 1m in depth, with 7 or 8 sampling levels. Within transects, the distance between the levels was 20m until the upper swash zone, from which distance was 10m until the 1-meter isobath. The temporal variation in the abundance of benthic macrofauna observed in the present study can be attributed to (1) the positive effects of the recruitment peaks and migration of particular species to the swash zone and (2) negative effects of the migration of some species to deeper waters, as well (3) as mortality through natural causes (stranding and action of predators) and (4) human causes (harvesting and vehicle transit). We attribute the expressive abundance increase of benthic macrofauna to recruitment. The stranding, that is, the trapping of the organisms on the upper parts of the beach, is likely the main cause of abrupt drops in benthic macrofauna abundance.

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Here we present data on the reproductive behavior of Leptodactylus mystacinus (Burmeister, 1861), including details on courtship behavior. We also describe and compared the courtship calls of L. mystacinus, L. furnarius Sazima & Bokermann, 1978 and Leptodactylus sp. (L. aff. andreae). Field works were conducted in Uberlândia (central Brazil). During courtship, a female approaches a calling male and is led to a previously excavated chamber; a female can approach a silent male that beat his hands and/or feet on the ground as well. The courtship call of L. mystacinus consists of one single arch-shaped note (duration = 0.04 s) repeated 258 times per minute; the courtship calls of L. furnarius (0.06 s, 84 times per minute) and Leptodactylus sp. (0.15 s, 5 times per minute) also are arch-shaped. The courtship behavior of L. mystacinus is similar to that of other species of the L. fuscus (Schneider, 1799) group; unique to it is that males can beat his hands and/or feet on the ground while courting. The male behavior of conducting the female to a previously excavates chamber and the arch-shaped courtship call may represent other shared derived features of members of the L. fuscus group, including the former Adenomera species.

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O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar a variação diária da zonação da macrofauna bentônica nas praias de Tramandaí, Harmonia e Jardim do Éden, Rio Grande do Sul. As coletas foram feitas ao longo de cinco dias consecutivos, utilizando-se um tubo de PVC de 20 cm de diâmetro. Foram demarcadas três transversais distantes 50 m uma da outra, com 4 estações de coleta e três amostras cada. As estações se estenderam desde 8 m acima do limite superior da zona de varrido (definida a cada dia) até 1 m de profundidade. Também foram coletados diariamente dados dos perfis topográficos de cada praia. Os resultados mostraram que a macrofauna bentônica apresenta um padrão de zonação regular ao longo dos dias. O intermareal foi marcado pela presença do isópode Excirolana armata (Dana, 1853) e do poliqueta Euzonus furciferus (Ehlers, 1897). A zona de varrido apresentou grande abundância do caranguejo hipídeo Emerita brasiliensis (Schmitt, 1935), do bivalvo Donax hanleyanus (Philippi, 1842) e do poliqueto Scolelepis gaucha (Orensanz & Gianuca, 1974). As zonas de "surf" e arrebentação interna não apresentaram diferenças na composição de espécies, sendo dominantes os juvenis de D. hanleyanus, Mesodesma mactroides (Deshayes, 1854), o anfípode Phoxocephalopsis zimmeri (Schellenberg, 1931), o poliqueto Hemipodus olivieri (Orensanz & Gianuca, 1974), além do bivalve Donax gemmula (Morrison, 1971). Os resultados indicaram que, apesar do padrão de zonação da macrofauna ter sido regular ao longo do estudo, algumas mudanças na posição vertical das espécies foram observadas, principalmente em função da variação da zona de varrido.

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Metamysidopsis atlantica elongata (Bascescu, 1968) is a common mysid in the surf zone of sandy beaches from the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, where it is frequently recorded forming dense aggregations. Trough laboratory trials, behavioral responses to salinity (10, 20, 25, 28, 30, 40 e 45), temperature (10, 15, 20, 30±1ºC) and light (yes/no) were tested using adult males, adult females and juveniles. Although there was no response to temperature, the species showed clear response to salinity and light. In the presence of light, organisms remained in the bottom of the aquaria, but moved to surface when bottom salinities were increased. In the absence of light, adults moved to the surface. However, juveniles moved down to or remained on the bottom, maybe as a response to avoid adult predation.

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Este proyecto nace de la necesidad de dar más seguridad a nuestros datos cuando navegamos por Internet. Se ha implementado un plug-in para el navegador Firefox de Mozilla, que detecta un formulario de login/password conocido y rellena el campo de la contraseña automáticamente. La contraseña estará en nuestro dispositivo móvil y la comunicación entre el navegador y el dispositivo se hará mediante la tecnología Bluetooth.