‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming and its Influence on the Tropical Atmosphere'

The stratospheric warming events are categorized into major and minor warming depending on the temperature increase in the polar stratosphere. The warming is called a ‘major’, when the polar temperature increases poleward from 60 degree latitude and followed by a reversal in the zonal wind at 10 hPa (~32 Km). Usually major warming events are associated with the displacement of polar vortex from high to mid latitudes or the splitting of vortices in to two. The warming is called a "Minor", when the polar temperature increases more than 25 degree in a period of a week or less, at any stratospheric level with less intensified easterly wind anomalies. The stratospheric warmings generated during the transition period of winter to spring are called final warmings. The warming events observed in the early winter period (November to early December) over Canadian region are called Canadian warmings. There is strong interaction between stratosphere and troposphere during SSW period over high and low latitudes regions. The thesis consists of 7 chapters

Meteorological aspects of an abnormal cooling event over Iran in April 2009

During the period from 12 to 15 April, 2009 nearly the entire Iran, apart from the southern border, experienced an advective cooling event. While winter freezing concerns are typical, the nature of this freezing event was unusual with respect to its date of occurrence and accompanying synoptic meteorological situation. To analyze the freezing event, the relevant meteorological data at multiple levels of the atmosphere were examined from the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset. The results showed that a polar vortex was responsible for the freezing event over the country extending southward extraordinarily in such a way that its ridge influenced most parts of Iran. This was recognized as an abnormal extension of a polar vortex in the recent years. The sea-level pressure fields indicated that a ridge of large-scale anticyclone centered over Black Sea extended southward and prevailed over most parts of Iran. This resulted in the formation of a severe cold air advection from high latitudes (Polar region) over Iran. During the study period, moisture pumping was observed from the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. The winds at 1000 hPa level blew with a magnitude of 10 m s-1 toward south in the region of convergence (between -2 9 10-6 s-1 and -12 9 10-6 s-1). The vertical profilesof temperature and humidity also indicated that the ICE structural icing occurred at multiple levels of the atmosphere, i.e, from 800 hPa through 400 hPa levels. In addition to the carburetor (or induction), icing occurred between 900 and 700 hPa levels in the selected radiosonde stations during the study period. In addition, the HYSPLIT backward trajectory model outputs were in quite good agreement with the observed synoptic features

Distinct Unfolding and Refolding Pathways of Ribonuclease A Revealed by Heating and Cooling Temperature Jumps

Heating and cooling temperature jumps (T-jumps) were performed using a newly developed technique to trigger unfolding and refolding of wild-type ribonuclease A and a tryptophan-containing variant (Y115W). From the linear Arrhenius plots of the microscopic folding and unfolding rate constants, activation enthalpy (ΔH#), and activation entropy (ΔS#) were determined to characterize the kinetic transition states (TS) for the unfolding and refolding reactions. The single TS of the wild-type protein was split into three for the Y115W variant. Two of these transition states, TS1 and TS2, characterize a slow kinetic phase, and one, TS3, a fast phase. Heating T-jumps induced protein unfolding via TS2 and TS3; cooling T-jumps induced refolding via TS1 and TS3. The observed speed of the fast phase increased at lower temperature, due to a strongly negative ΔH# of the folding-rate constant. The results are consistent with a path-dependent protein folding/unfolding mechanism. TS1 and TS2 are likely to reflect X-Pro114 isomerization in the folded and unfolded protein, respectively, and TS3 the local conformational change of the β-hairpin comprising Trp115. A very fast protein folding/unfolding phase appears to precede both processes. The path dependence of the observed kinetics is suggestive of a rugged energy protein folding funne

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century

Changes to stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) over the coming century, as predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) chemistry climate model [Atmospheric Model With Transport and Chemistry (AMTRAC)], are investigated in detail. Two sets of integrations, each a three-member ensemble, are analyzed. The first set is driven with observed climate forcings between 1960 and 2004; the second is driven with climate forcings from a coupled model run, including trace gas concentrations representing a midrange estimate of future anthropogenic emissions between 1990 and 2099. A small positive trend in the frequency of SSWs is found. This trend, amounting to 1 event/decade over a century, is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level and is consistent over the two sets of model integrations. Comparison of the model SSW climatology between the late 20th and 21st centuries shows that the increase is largest toward the end of the winter season. In contrast, the dynamical properties are not significantly altered in the coming century, despite the increase in SSW frequency. Owing to the intrinsic complexity of our model, the direct cause of the predicted trend in SSW frequency remains an open question.

A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part III. Polar vortex evolution and vertical structure

The evolution of the Arctic polar vortex during observed major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is investigated for the period 1957-2002, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Ertel’s potential vorticity (PV) and temperature fields. Time-lag composites of vertically weighted PV, calculated relative to the SSW onset time, are derived for both vortex displacement SSWs and vortex splitting SSWs, by averaging over the 15 recorded displacement and 13 splitting events. The evolving vertical structure of the polar vortex during a typical SSW of each type is clearly illustrated by plotting an isosurface of the composite PV field, and is shown to be very close to that observed during representative individual events. Results are verified by comparison with an elliptical diagnostic vortex moment technique. For both types of SSW, little variation is found between individual events in the orientation of the developing vortex relative to the underlying topography, i.e. the location of the vortex during SSWs of each type is largely fixed in relation to the Earth’s surface. During each type of SSW, the vortex is found to have a distinctive vertical structure. Vortex splitting events are typically barotropic, with the vortex split occurring near-simultaneously over a large altitude range (20-40 km). In the majority of cases, of the two daughter vortices formed, it is the ‘Siberian’ vortex that dominates over its ‘Canadian’ counterpart. In contrast, displacement events are characterized by a very clear baroclinic structure; the vortex tilts significantly westward with height, so that the top and bottom of the vortex are separated by nearly 180◦ longitude before the upper vortex is sheared away and destroyed.

Sudden stratospheric warmings as noise-induced transitions

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are usually considered to be initiated by planetary wave activity. Here it is asked whether small-scale variability (e.g., related to gravity waves) can lead to SSWs given a certain amount of planetary wave activity that is by itself not sufficient to cause a SSW. A highly vertically truncated version of the Holton–Mass model of stratospheric wave–mean flow interaction, recently proposed by Ruzmaikin et al., is extended to include stochastic forcing. In the deterministic setting, this low-order model exhibits multiple stable equilibria corresponding to the undisturbed vortex and SSW state, respectively. Momentum forcing due to quasi-random gravity wave activity is introduced as an additive noise term in the zonal momentum equation. Two distinct approaches are pursued to study the stochastic system. First, the system, initialized at the undisturbed state, is numerically integrated many times to derive statistics of first passage times of the system undergoing a transition to the SSW state. Second, the Fokker–Planck equation corresponding to the stochastic system is solved numerically to derive the stationary probability density function of the system. Both approaches show that even small to moderate strengths of the stochastic gravity wave forcing can be sufficient to cause a SSW for cases for which the deterministic system would not have predicted a SSW.

A Possible Influence of Equatorial Winds on the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Warming Event

The stratospheric sudden warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in September 2002 was unexpected for two reasons. First, planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere is very weak, and midwinter warmings have never been observed, at least not since observations of the upper stratosphere became regularly available. Second, the warming occurred in a west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere. This is unexpected because warmings are usually considered to be more likely in the east phase of the QBO, when a zero wind line is present in the winter subtropics and hence confines planetary wave propagation to higher latitudes closer to the polar vortex. At first, this evidence suggests that the sudden warming must therefore be simply a result of anomalously strong planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. However, recent model studies have suggested that the midwinter polar vortex may also be sensitive to the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the semiannual oscillation. In this paper, the time series of equatorial zonal winds from two different data sources, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and the Met Office assimilated dataset, are reviewed. Both suggest that the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa were anomalously easterly in 2002. Idealized model experiments are described in which the modeled equatorial winds were relaxed toward these observations for various years to examine whether the anomalous easterlies in 2002 could influence the timing of a warming event. It is found that the 2002 equatorial winds speed up the evolution of a warming event in the model. Therefore, this study suggests that the anomalous easterlies in the 1–10-hPa region may have been a contributory factor in the development of the observed SH warming. However, it is concluded that it is unlikely that the anomalous equatorial winds alone can explain the 2002 warming event.

The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002

Recent research has established that a small but statistically significant link exists between the stratosphere and the troposphere in the northern hemisphere extratropics. In this paper it is shown that a similar link exists between the stratosphere and troposphere during the unprecedented September 2002 sudden warming in the southern hemisphere. Two ensemble forecasts of the stratospheric sudden warming are run which have different stratospheric initial conditions and identical tropospheric initial conditions. Stratospheric initial conditions have an impact on the tropospheric flow at the peak of the major warming (5 days into the run) and on longer time-scales (18 days into the run). The character of this influence is a localized, equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm track. The averaged impact of the change in the position of the storm-track maps strongly onto the Southern Annular Mode structure, but does not have an annular character.

Variability in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere

The longwave radiative cooling of the clear-sky atmosphere (Q(LWc)) is a crucial component of the global hydrological cycle and is composed of the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to space (OLRc) and the net downward minus upward clear-sky longwave radiation to the surface (SNLc). Estimates of QLWc from reanalyses and observations are presented for the period 1979-2004. Compared to other reanalyses data sets, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) produces the largest Q(LWc) over the tropical oceans (217 W m(-2)), explained by the least negative SNLc. On the basis of comparisons with data derived from satellite measurements, ERA40 provides the most realistic QLWc climatology over the tropical oceans but exhibits a spurious interannual variability for column integrated water vapor (CWV) and SNLc. Interannual monthly anomalies of QLWc are broadly consistent between data sets with large increases during the warm El Nino events. Since relative humidity ( RH) errors applying throughout the troposphere result in compensating effects on the cooling to space and to the surface, they exert only a marginal effect on QLWc. An observed increase in CWV with surface temperature of 3 kg m(-2) K-1 over the tropical oceans is important in explaining a positive relationship between QLWc and surface temperature, in particular over ascending regimes; over tropical ocean descending regions this relationship ranges from 3.6 to 4.6 +/- 0.4 W m(-2) K-1 for the data sets considered, consistent with idealized sensitivity tests in which tropospheric warming is applied and RH is held constant and implying an increase in precipitation with warming.

A continuum of sudden stratospheric warmings

The k-means cluster technique is used to examine 43 yr of daily winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratospheric data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The results show that the NH winter stratosphere exists in two natural well-separated states. In total, 10% of the analyzed days exhibit a warm disturbed state that is typical of sudden stratospheric warming events. The remaining 90% of the days are in a state typical of a colder undisturbed vortex. These states are determined objectively, with no preconceived notion of the groups. The two stratospheric states are described and compared with alternative indicators of the polar winter flow, such as the northern annular mode. It is shown that the zonally averaged zonal winds in the polar upper stratosphere at 7 hPa can best distinguish between the two states, using a threshold value of 4 m s−1, which is remarkably close to the standard WMO criterion for major warming events. The analysis also determines that there are no further divisions within the warm state, indicating that there is no well-designated threshold between major and minor warmings, nor between split and displaced vortex events. These different manifestations are simply members of a continuum of warming events.