837 resultados para Subjective-probability
Resumo:
Disturbed sleep is common in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Conventional hypnotics worsen nocturnal hypoxemia and, in severe cases, can lead to respiratory failure. Exogenous melatonin has somnogenic properties in normal subjects and can improve sleep in several clinical conditions. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study was carried out to determine the effects of melatonin on sleep in COPD. Thirty consecutive patients with moderate to very severe COPD were initially recruited for the study. None of the participants had a history of disease exacerbation 4 weeks prior to the study, obstructive sleep apnea, mental disorders, current use of oral steroids, methylxanthines or hypnotic-sedative medication, nocturnal oxygen therapy, and shift work. Patients received 3 mg melatonin (N = 12) or placebo (N = 13), orally in a single dose, 1 h before bedtime for 21 consecutive days. Sleep quality was assessed by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and daytime sleepiness was measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. Pulmonary function and functional exercise level were assessed by spirometry and the 6-min walk test, respectively. Twenty-five patients completed the study protocol and were included in the final analysis. Melatonin treatment significantly improved global PSQI scores (P = 0.012), particularly sleep latency (P = 0.008) and sleep duration (P = 0.046). No differences in daytime sleepiness, lung function and functional exercise level were observed. We conclude that melatonin can improve sleep in COPD. Further long-term studies involving larger number of patients are needed before melatonin can be safely recommended for the management of sleep disturbances in these patients.
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The calyx of Held, a specialized synaptic terminal in the medial nucleus of the trapezoid body, undergoes a series of changes during postnatal development that prepares this synapse for reliable high frequency firing. These changes reduce short-term synaptic depression during tetanic stimulation and thereby prevent action potential failures during a stimulus train. We measured presynaptic membrane capacitance changes in calyces from young postnatal day 5-7 (p5-7) or older (p10-12) rat pups to examine the effect of calcium buffer capacity on vesicle pool size and the efficiency of exocytosis. Vesicle pool size was sensitive to the choice and concentration of exogenous Ca2+ buffer, and this sensitivity was much stronger in younger animals. Pool size and exocytosis efficiency in p5-7 calyces were depressed by 0.2 mM EGTA to a greater extent than with 0.05 mM BAPTA, even though BAPTA is a 100-fold faster Ca2+ buffer. However, this was not the case for p10-12 calyces. With 5 mM EGTA, exocytosis efficiency was reduced to a much larger extent in young calyces compared to older calyces. Depression of exocytosis using pairs of 10-ms depolarizations was reduced by 0.2 mM EGTA compared to 0.05 mM BAPTA to a similar extent in both age groups. These results indicate a developmentally regulated heterogeneity in the sensitivity of different vesicle pools to Ca2+ buffer capacity. We propose that, during development, a population of vesicles that are tightly coupled to Ca2+ channels expands at the expense of vesicles more distant from Ca2+ channels.
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Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating present state capabilities or future developments of capabilities in the context of technology forecasting. Three levels are necessary for a model describing effects of technologies on military capabilities. These levels are capability areas, systems and technologies. The contribution of this paper is to present one possible model for interdependencies between technologies. Modelling interdependencies between technologies is the last building block in constructing a quantitative model for technological forecasting including necessary levels of abstraction. This study supplements our previous research and as a result we present a model for the whole process of capability modelling. As in our earlier studies, capability is defined as the probability of a successful task or operation or proper functioning of a system. In order to obtain numerical data to demonstrate our model, we conducted a questionnaire to a group of defence technology researchers where interdependencies between seven representative technologies were inquired. Because of a small number of participants in questionnaires and general uncertainties concerning subjective evaluations, only rough conclusions can be made from the numerical results
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Several recent studies have described the period of impaired alertness and performance known as sleep inertia that occurs upon awakening from a full night of sleep. They report that sleep inertia dissipates in a saturating exponential manner, the exact time course being task dependent, but generally persisting for one to two hours. A number of factors, including sleep architecture, sleep depth and circadian variables are also thought to affect the duration and intensity. The present study sought to replicate their findings for subjective alertness and reaction time and also to examine electrophysiological changes through the use of event-related potentials (ERPs). Secondly, several sleep parameters were examined for potential effects on the initial intensity of sleep inertia. Ten participants spent two consecutive nights and subsequent mornings in the sleep lab. Sleep architecture was recorded for a fiiU nocturnal episode of sleep based on participants' habitual sleep patterns. Subjective alertness and performance was measured for a 90-minute period after awakening. Alertness was measured every five minutes using the Stanford Sleepiness Scale (SSS) and a visual analogue scale (VAS) of sleepiness. An auditory tone also served as the target stimulus for an oddball task designed to examine the NlOO and P300 components ofthe ERP waveform. The five-minute oddball task was presented at 15-minute intervals over the initial 90-minutes after awakening to obtain six measures of average RT and amplitude and latency for NlOO and P300. Standard polysomnographic recording were used to obtain digital EEG and describe the night of sleep. Power spectral analyses (FFT) were used to calculate slow wave activity (SWA) as a measure of sleep depth for the whole night, 90-minutes before awakening and five minutes before awakening.
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According to Diener (1984), the three primary components of subjective well-being (SWB) are high life satisfaction (LS), frequent positive affect (P A), and infrequent negative affect (NA). The present dissertation extends previous research and theorizing on SWB by testing an innovative framework developed by Shmotkin (2005) in which SWB is conceptualized as an agentic process that promotes and maintains positive functioning. Two key components ofShmotkin's framework were explored in a longitudinal study of university students. In Part 1, SWB was examined as an integrated system of components organized within individuals. Using cluster analysis, five distinct configurations of LS, P A, and NA were identified at each wave. Individuals' SWB configurations were moderately stable over time, with the highest and lowest stabilities observed among participants characterized by "high SWB" and "low SWB" configurations, respectively. Changes in SWB configurations in the direction of a high SWB pattern, and stability among participants already characterized by high SWB, coincided with better than expected mental, physical, and interpersonal functioning over time. More positive levels of functioning and improvements in functioning over time discriminated among SWB configurations. However, prospective effects of SWB configurations on subsequent functioning were not observed. In Part 2, subjective temporal perspective "trajectories" were examined based on individuals' ratings of their past, present, and anticipated future LS. Upward subjective LS trajectories were normative at each wave. Cross-sectional analyses revealed consistent associations between upward subjective trajectories and lower levels of LS, as well as less positive mental, physical, and interpersonal functioning. Upward subjective LS trajectories were biased both with respect to underestimation of past LS and overestimation of future LS, demonstrating their illusional nature. Further, whereas more negative retrospective bias was associated with greater current distress and dysfunction, more positive prospective bias was associated with less positive functioning in the future. Prospective relations, however, were not consistently observed. Thus, steep upward subjective LS trajectory appeared to be a form of wishful-thinking, rather than an adaptive form of selfenhancement. Major limitations and important directions for future research are considered. Implications for Shmotkin's (2005) framework, and for research on SWB more generally, also are discussed
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Univalent attitudes toward gay people have been widely studied, but no research to date has examined ambivalent (i.e., torn, conflicted) attitudes toward gay people. However, the Justification-Suppression Model (JSM; Crandall & Eshleman, 2003) proposes that ambivalence leads to biased expressions through intrapsychic processes which facilitate biased expression, particularly in contexts presenting strong justifications for expressing prejudice and weak pressures to suppress prejudice. I test these implications in the context of bias toward gay people. In Study 1, the measurement of ambivalence is examined in terms of both subjective ambivalence (i.e., the reported experience of “torn” attitudes) and calculated ambivalence (i.e., mathematical conflict between positive and negative attitude components). I find that higher subjective ambivalence is only associated with more negative attitudes toward gay people (and not positive attitudes toward gay people), and that higher subjective ambivalence predicts less gay rights support even after taking negative and positive attitudes toward gay people into account. Further, higher subjective ambivalence is associated with ideological opposition to gay people and more negative intergroup emotions (e.g., intergroup disgust). These findings suggest it is valuable to examine the unique component of subjective ambivalence separate from univalent negativity. Because calculated ambivalence measures are mathematically dependent upon a univalent negative measure, they cannot be examined separately from negativity. Therefore, subjective ambivalence is the focus of Study 2. The main goals of Study 2 were to determine why and when subjective ambivalence is related to bias. I examined the extent to which the negative relation between subjective ambivalence and opposition to anti-gay bullying can be accounted for by lower intergroup empathy and lower collective guilt, which may facilitate the expression of bias in keeping with the JSM. The relation between subjective ambivalence and anti-gay bullying opposition was examined within four social contexts based on a 2 (high vs. low offensiveness) x 2 (normatively unjustified vs. normatively justified) manipulation. I expected that higher subjective ambivalence would be most strongly related to lower intergroup empathy and collective guilt when there are the strongest justifications for bias expression, and that lower intergroup empathy and collective guilt would lead to less opposition to anti-gay bullying. Higher subjective ambivalence predicted less anti-gay bullying opposition. After accounting for positivity and negativity, the direct effect of subjective ambivalence was no longer significant, yet subjective ambivalence uniquely predicted intergroup empathy, which in turn predicted less anti-gay bullying opposition. These findings provide evidence that subjective ambivalence is largely negative in nature, but also presents evidence for a unique component of subjective ambivalence (separate from univalent attitudes) associated with low intergroup empathy and negativity. In contrast to previous research, I found very little evidence for the context-dependency of subjective ambivalence. Further research on subjective ambivalence, including subjective ambivalence toward other social groups, may expand our understanding of the factors leading to biased expressions.
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The current study considered affect-related variables as predictors of the quality of helping relationships between older mothers and their adult daughters. Specifically, self-reported and observed emotional responses to the dyadic discussion of a disagreement between mothers and daughters, as well as baseline measures of respiratory sinus arrhythmia were considered as predictors of mothers' and daughters' satisfaction with their helping relationships. Relationship satisfaction was measured by considering mothers' and daughters' subjective well-being specifically in regards to the help they gave and received. Overall, these variables predicted more variance in mothers' satisfaction with their helping relationships than daughters', and RSA (respiratory sinus arrhythmia) was a stronger predictor than the self-reported or observed emotional reactions to the dyadic discussion of a disagreement. Implications of these findings and limitations to the current study are discussed.
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A number of studies have found a significant link between sleep and psychosocial functioning among university students. A critical examination of this literature, however, indicates that one important gap within the literature is the need for longitudinal studies that specifically test for bidirectional associations between these two constructs. The main purpose of my dissertation was to address this gap by conducting three studies that examined bidirectional associations between sleep and psychosocial functioning among a sample of university students. Participants were 942 (71.5% female) undergraduate students enrolled at a Canadian university, who completed survey assessments annually for three consecutive years, beginning in their first year of university. In the first study, I assessed bidirectional associations between two sleep characteristics (sleep quality and sleep duration) and three psychosocial functioning variables (academics, friendship quality, and intrapersonal adjustment). Results based on cross-lagged models indicated a significant bidirectional association between sleep quality and intrapersonal adjustment, such that more sleep problems predicted more negative intrapersonal adjustment over time, and vice versa. Unidirectional associations indicated that both higher academic achievement and more positive friendship quality were significant predictors of less sleep problems over time. In the second study, in which I examined bidirectional associations between sleep and media use, results provided support only for unidirectional associations; such that more sleep problems predicted increases in both time spent watching television and time spent engaged in online social networking. In the third study of my dissertation, in which I examined social ties at university and sleep quality, results indicated a significant bidirectional association, such that more positive social ties predicted less sleep problems over time, and vice versa. Importantly, emotion regulation was a significant mediator of this association. Findings across the three studies, highlight the importance of determining the direction of effects between different sleep characteristics and various aspects of university students’ psychosocial functioning, as such findings have important implications for both methodology and practice. A better understanding of the nature of the associations between sleep and psychosocial functioning will equip students, parents and university administrators with the tools necessary to facilitate successful adjustment across the university years.
Resumo:
Subjective well-being (SWB) refers to how individuals evaluate and experience their lives in positive ways, and encompasses global judgments of life satisfaction (LS), as well as the frequency of positive and negative affect (PA and NA, respectively) in one’s life. To inform the current ambiguity concerning the structure of SWB, the aim of this Masters thesis was to evaluate the structure of SWB based on whether the three components of SWB change together or independently naturally, over time and following experimental manipulation. In Study 1, associations among changes in LS, PA, and NA were evaluated using a longitudinal approach tracking natural changes in the components over periods of three months and three years. Results indicated that change in one component was related to change in the other two components. In Study 2, an experimental design was used to manipulate each SWB component individually, and evaluate changes in all three components following each manipulation. Manipulation materials designed to target LS only were effective (i.e., led to heightened focus on LS, and not PA or NA) and created an increase in both LS and PA. Manipulation materials designed to target PA and NA only were not effective (i.e., led to heightened focus on the target component, as well as on LS). Furthermore, in both studies the strength of an individual’s SWB (assessed in terms of structural consistency and structural ambivalence in Study 1 and Study 2, along with subjective ambivalence in Study 2) did not consistently moderate the degree to which changes in the components were associated with one another. Together, these findings indicate that the structure of SWB may be complex and dynamic, rather than static. Alternatively, the components of SWB may not be easily manipulated in isolation of one another. Implications for existing structural models of SWB are discussed.
Resumo:
We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.
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Rapport de recherche
Flippable Pairs and Subset Comparisons in Comparative Probability Orderings and Related Simple Games
Resumo:
We show that every additively representable comparative probability order on n atoms is determined by at least n - 1 binary subset comparisons. We show that there are many orders of this kind, not just the lexicographic order. These results provide answers to two questions of Fishburn et al (2002). We also study the flip relation on the class of all comparative probability orders introduced by Maclagan. We generalise an important theorem of Fishburn, Peke?c and Reeds, by showing that in any minimal set of comparisons that determine a comparative probability order, all comparisons are flippable. By calculating the characteristics of the flip relation for n = 6 we discover that the regions in the corresponding hyperplane arrangement can have no more than 13 faces and that there are 20 regions with 13 faces. All the neighbours of the 20 comparative probability orders which correspond to those regions are representable. Finally we define a class of simple games with complete desirability relation for which its strong desirability relation is acyclic, and show that the flip relation carries all the information about these games. We show that for n = 6 these games are weighted majority games.
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Cette présentation examinera le degré de certitude qui peut être atteint dans le domaine scientifique. Le paradigme scientifique est composé de deux extrêmes; causalité et déterminisme d'un côté et probabilité et indéterminisme de l'autre. En faisant appel aux notions de Hume de la ressemblance et la contiguïté, on peut rejeter la causalité ou le hasard objectif comme étant sans fondement et non empirique. Le problème de l'induction et le sophisme du parieur proviennent d’une même source cognitif / heuristique. Hume décrit ces tendances mentales dans ses essais « Of Probability » et « Of the Idea of Necessary Connexion ». Une discussion sur la conception de la probabilité de Hume ainsi que d'autres interprétations de probabilité sera nécessaire. Même si la science glorifie et idéalise la causalité, la probabilité peut être comprise comme étant tout aussi cohérente. Une attitude probabiliste, même si elle est également non empirique, pourrait être plus avantageuse que le vieux paradigme de la causalité.
Resumo:
Ce mémoire explore le parcours de guérison de pratiquants du Yoga Sivananda dans un contexte de réenchantement du monde. Les répondants ont été recrutés à l'ashram Sivananda de Val-Morin (Québec) qui a été défini comme un territoire transnational et cosmopolite favorisant l'hybridité religieuse et l'accès à des ressources symboliques et thérapeutiques multiples. À travers une approche phénoménologique qui privilégie la subjectivité de l'individu, nous proposons d'identifier les facteurs-clés de guérison propres à chacun des répondants et d'observer comment ils composent avec les univers de sens et les diverses représentations du corps, de la maladie et de la guérison qui circulent dans la société. Nous définirons la place qu'occupe la ressource spirituelle à l'intérieur de ce parcours et comment la ressource biomédicale s'ancre à l'intérieur de la ressource spirituelle. Nous verrons comment les personnes bricolent leur propre système de représentations et s'arrangent pour donner un sens à la maladie et la réinscrire dans une dimension holiste, tout en profitant pour la plupart de la technologie du système biomédical, ceci pour multiplier les chances de guérison. Il a été présumé que le déclenchement des mécanismes de guérison dépend de la subjectivité de la personne et que celle-ci contient – au moins en partie – les clés de sa guérison. Ces clés sont propres à chacun et la recherche démontre que chaque parcours est unique. Aussi, en faisant référence à cette subjectivité, la question principale de ce mémoire est-elle de savoir à quoi les répondant attribuent leur guérison.