Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova and the Chinese economic expansion in Eastern Europe. OSW Commentary No. 79, 2012-05-28

The countries of Eastern European and China have been increasingly interested in deepening bilateral contacts over the past few years. In the case of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova this has been caused by the bad economic situation which was in part caused by the consequences of the global economic crisis of 2008 and the desire to establish closer political relations with a country whose significance on the international arena is continually growing. Each of these countries has different expectations regarding the scale and the nature of co-operation with China. Chisinau wishes only to boost trade, whereas in Minsk and Kyiv, Beijing is also presented as a strategic partner whose investments may not only help the indebted economies recover but also strengthen the position of these countries in their dealings with the EU, and especially with Russia. Beijing sees co-operation with these countries in differently, and its offer is much more modest than Belarus and Ukraine are expecting. Eastern Europe is one of the last parts of the world with which China is activating its co-operation. This is not a priority region for Beijing. China wants to derive economic benefits and to diversify the markets on which it invests its financial surplus, and it does not intend to extend its political dialogue with Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova beyond the framework which determines its economic interests. The main reason for this is the nature of relations between Russia and China. Beijing sees its partnership with Moscow as more beneficial, and will not offer these countries support in their relations with Russia since in its opinion they belong to Russia’s sphere of influence. Minsk and Kyiv are pinning too much hope on their co-operation with Beijing, while China offers no real counterbalance to the Russian and EU influences in these countries. Nevertheless, it should be expected that China will capitalise on the beneficial political climate in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to reinforce its influence in a region whose location will facilitate its expansion to the EU and the Customs Union markets. In the medium term, Beijing may become a major economic player in Eastern Europe. In a decade’s time this may translate into political influence. Meanwhile, in the short term, China’s financial engagement in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova will contribute to increasing the debts and deepening the foreign trade deficits of these countries.

Supporting the Revolution: America, Democracy, and the End of the Cold War in Poland, 1981-1989. ACES Working Paper (Report) No. 8, 2007

Early on the morning of December 13, 1981, General Wojciech Jaruzelski, the leader of the communist Polish United Workers' Party (PZPR), declared martial law, ending the so-called "Polish Crisis," which began with the creation of the Independent Free Trade Union "Solidamosc" in August 1980. Over the next eight years, the Communist government and the opposition struggled over power, culminating in 1989 with the creation of a Solidamosc-led government which ended fifty years of Communist rule in Poland and led the way to further democratic revolutions throughout Eastern Europe. The purpose of this dissertation is to utilize newly available and underutilized archival sources as well as oral history interviews, from both international and American perspectives, to fully chronicle American policy toward Poland from the declaration of martial law until the creation of the Solidarnosc government. Rather than explaining Polish-American relations in bilateral terms, the dissertation illuminates the complex web of influences that determined American policy in Washington and affected its implementation within Poland. This includes descriptions of internal tensions within the Reagan administration, differences between American decisions in Washington and implementation in Warsaw, lobbying from Polish-American groups, clashes between Capitol Hill and the White House, coordination with American labor organizations to support Solidarnosc, disagreements with West European allies in NATO and international financial organizations, cooperation with the Vatican and the Polish Catholic Church, synchronization with American humanitarian organizations working in Poland, limitations caused by the realities of Soviet power in Eastern Europe, and complications caused by domestic Polish concerns. By taking a broad view of American policy and highlighting internal Polish decisions, with both the Communist government and the democratic opposition, the dissertation provides concrete examples of America's role in Poland's transformation, arguing, however, that this role was very limited. These conclusions are relevant to arguments about the end of the Cold War, the nature of American power, as well as current discussions about possibilities to promote democracy within hostile regimes.

Game of zones. The quest for influence in Europe’s neighbourhood. Egmont Paper No. 67, June 2014

Introduction. Russia’s annexation of the Crimea and subsequent meddling in Ukraine does not constitute a game-changer. It is just a reminder that at least since the war with Georgia in 2008 Russia has been and still is playing the same game: a “game of zones”, aimed at (re)establishing an exclusive sphere of influence. Many of us Europeans had forgotten that, or had pushed it to the back of our minds, preferring to believe that we were not engaged in a zero-sum game in our eastern neighbourhood. While we were dealing with Ukraine, we tended also to forget the crises still going on in our southern neighbourhood, in Libya, Mali, Syria and now Iraq. Spilling over from Syria, extremist militias may establish their own “zone” in the Middle East, which would de-stabilize the entire region. In order to prevent that game-changer from materializing, another game-changer may be necessary: a rapprochement with Iran. Europe must assume responsibility for security in its entire neighbourhood, both east and south. The challenge is great – but so are Europe’s means.

The impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia’s security. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 54, March 2014

ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or “dingwei”. Russia’s Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China’s dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three.

Energising the TTIP: Political economy of the trade policy rationale. Paper No. 9 in the CEPS-CTR project “TTIP in the Balance’’and CEPS Special Report No. 113/July 2015

Despite accounting for a significant share of global trade and the resulting interdependencies from it, energy governance remains largely fragmented and there is no global framework or agreement defining the rules of energy trade. This paper, after presenting the main global and regional energy market developments, discusses the opportunities to ‘energise the TTIP’, i.e. to include a chapter dedicated to trade and cooperation in the sphere of energy. The shale revolution in the US, the ever-rising interconnectedness of energy markets (recently proven by the disappearance of the ‘Asian gas premium’) and the EU’s quest to diversify its energy supplies generally sets favourable conditions to reinforce energy relations between the EU and the US. The question, as is often the case, is whether there is sufficient political will to tighten relations in a strategic sphere with connotations for national security and sovereignty.

The Eurasian Economic Union: a time of crisis. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 195/27.01.2016

The Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU), a project forced through by Russia which links it to Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, is currently struggling with serious problems. The economic crisis in Russia – mainly caused by the fall in the price of oil on world markets and exacerbated by sanctions imposed by Western countries in connection with the Ukraine conflict – is affecting these uncompetitive post-Soviet economies which are dependent on Russia. This has resulted in increased economic and political tension among the members of the EaEU. From Russia’s point of view, however, the EaEU project remains useful, because it is not economic integration that is Moscow’s priority. The Union remains its most important instrument for implementing the Kremlin’s geo-political objectives, in particular maintaining its sphere of influence and preventing post-Soviet countries from integrating with the West, as well as restricting their rapprochement with China. Moscow is pushing for the EaEU to include new countries, strengthening its tools for political dominance within the Union, and promoting its project on the international stage. However, the future of this project will depend on both the continued determination of the Kremlin, and whether the other countries can change the rules for integration by taking advantage of the current crisis.

Calvin's doctrine of the Word and sacrament

Bibliographical footnotes

Towards the social inclusion of youth: Tools for analysis and policy design

The integration of youth into development processes is crucial in order to advance towards more egalitarian societies. Over the past few years, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has regarded equality as the horizon for development, structural change as the way to achieve it, and policy as the instrument to reach that horizon. Equality is viewed as going beyond the distribution of means, such as monetary income, to include equal opportunities and capacities. This implies understanding equality as the full exercise of citizenship, with dignity and the reciprocal recognition of actors. Progress in this direction requires policies that promote the autonomy of subjects and pay attention to their vulnerabilities.

Negotiating, Communicating, Collaborating: A Sociocultural View of Online Program Development

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-05

Influences on doctors' prescribing: Is geographical remoteness a factor?

Objective: To identify factors influencing the prescribing of medicines by general practitioners in rural and remote Australia. Design: A qualitative study using a questionnaire to determine attitudes about prescribing, specific prescribing habits and comments on prescribing in ‘rural practice’. Setting: General practice in rural and remote Queensland. Subjects: General practitioners practising in rural and remote settings in Queensland (n = 258). Main outcome measures: The factors perceived to influence the prescribing of medicines by medical practitioners in rural environments. Results: A 58% response rate (n = 142) was achieved. Most respondents agreed that they prescribe differently in rural compared with city practice. The majority of respondents agreed that their prescribing was influenced by practice location, isolation of patient home location, limited diagnostic testing and increased drug monitoring. Location issues and other issues were more likely to be identified as ‘influential’ by the more isolated practitioners. Factors such as access to continuing medical education and specialists were confirmed as having an influence on prescribing. The prescribing of recently marketed drugs was more likely by doctors practising in less remote rural areas. Conclusion: Practising in rural and remote locations is perceived to have an effect on prescribing. These influences need to be considered when developing quality use of medicines policies and initiatives for these locations. What is already known: Anecdotal and audit based studies have shown that rural general practice differs to urban-based practice in Australia, including some limited data showing some variations in prescribing patterns. No substantiated explanations for these variations have been offered. It is known that interventions to change prescribing behaviour are more likely to be effective if they are perceived as relevant and hence increasing our knowledge of rural doctors’ perceptions of differences in rural practice prescribing is required. What this study adds: Rural doctors believed that they prescribe differently in rural compared with city practice and they described a range of influences. The more remotely located doctors were more likely to report the ‘rural’ influences on prescribing, however, most results failed to reach statistical significance when compared to the less remotely located doctors. These perceptions should be considered when developing medicines policy and education for rural medical practitioners to ensure it is perceived rurally relevant.

Partial regularity of minimizers of a functional involving forms and maps

We discuss the partial regularity of minimizers of energy functionals such as (1)/(p)integral(Omega)[sigma(u)dA(p) + (1)/(2)delu(2p)]dx, where u is a map from a domain Omega is an element of R-n into the m-dimensional unit sphere of Rm+1 and A is a differential one-form in Omega.

The role of the greens in the local politics of West Germany.

The study examines the contribution of the Greens to the changing nature of West Germany's local politics in the 1980s. The changes correspond broadly to the politicisation and parliamentarisation of a sphere of government traditionally perceived as being "unpolitical". Building upon theories of the New Politics, it is suggested that the varying pace of socio-economic change across the Federal Republic underlies the nonuniform development of its local party systems. The party systems of localities which have witnessed rapid social and economic change are found to be more susceptible to the emergence of a New Politics dimension than those of communities in which change has occurred less rapidly. The thesis continues by addressing aspects of the Greens' role in the development of local party systems across the Federal Republic. Despite the fact that marked differences in the Greens' approach to local political participation are registered in communities of varying socio-economic types, it is argued that the Greens are largely responsible for the introduction of a "New Local Politics" dimension into West Germany's local party systems. In a comprehensive study of the Greens' role in the Mainz party system, the conflicting styles and practices of the Greens and the established political parties in the city are depicted. The failure of the Green Party to form an alliance with the SPD in the city council is attributed to the cleavage between the Greens' New Politics and the SPD's Old Politics approaches. A detailed analysis of the parliamentary initiatives introduced by the four parties represented in the Mainz council between 1984 and 1987 also supports the contention that a New Politics dimension exists in the city's party system. This dimension is identified as representing a significant source of conflict during the period of analysis.

The interaction between the implementation of an occupational health and safety management system and safety culture:a case study in the rubber industry

A prominent theme emerging in Occupational Health and Safety (OSH) is the development of management systems. A range of interventions, according to a prescribed route detailed by one of the management systems, can be introduced into an organisation with some expectation of improved OSH performance. This thesis attempts to identify the key influencing factors that may impact upon the process of introducing interventions, (according to B88800: 1996, Guide to Implementing Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems) into an organisation. To help identify these influencing factors a review of possible models from the sphere of Total Quality Management (TQM) was undertaken and the most suitable TQM model selected for development and use in aSH. By anchoring the aSH model's development in the reviewed literature a range ofeare, medium and low level influencing factors were identified. This model was developed in conjunction with the research data generated within the case study organisation (rubber manufacturer) and applied to the organisation. The key finding was that the implementation of an OSH intervention was dependant upon three broad vectors of influence. These are the Incentive to introduce change within an organisation which refers to the drivers or motivators for OSH. Secondly the Ability within the management team to actually implement the changes refers to aspects, amongst others, such as leadership, commitment and perceptions of OSH. Ability is in turn itself influenced by the environment within which change is being introduced. TItis aspect of Receptivity refers to the history of the plant and characteristics of the workforce. Aspects within Receptivity include workforce profile and organisational policies amongst others. It was found that the TQM model selected and developed for an OSH management system intervention did explain the core influencing factors and their impact upon OSH performance. It was found that within the organisation the results that may have been expected from implementation of BS8800:1996 were not realised. The OSH model highlighted that given the organisation's starting point, a poor appreciation of the human factors of OSH, gave little reward for implementation of an OSH management system. In addition it was found that general organisational culture can effectively suffocate any attempts to generate a proactive safety culture.

The role of government research establishments : a study of the concept of public patronage for applied research and development

This thesis follows the argument that, to fully understand the current position of national research laboratories in Great Britain one needs to study the historical development of the government research establishment as a specific social institution. A particular model is outlined in which it is argued that institutional characteristics evolve through the continual interplay between internal development and environmental factors within a changing political and economic context, and that the continuous development of an institution depends on its ability to adapt to changes in its operational environment. Within this framework important historical precedents for formal government institutional support for applied research are identified. and the transition from private to public patronage documented. The emergence and consolidation of government research laboratories in Britain is described in detail. The subsequent relative decline of public laboratories is interpreted in terms of the undermining of a traditional role resulting in legitimation crisis. It is concluded that it is no longer feasible to consider the public research laboratory as a coherent institutional form, and that the future of each individual laboratory can only be considered in relation to the institutional needs of its own sphere of operation. Nevertheless the laboratories have been forced into decline in an essentially unplanned way which may have serious consequences for the maintenance of the scientific and technical infrastructures, necessary for material progress in the national context.

Can grassroots organisations and NGOs substitute for the State in Russia? A review of the literature and suggestions for a future research agenda

The paper investigates the relationship between civil society and the state. Using the unique lens of the state-substitution (the process whereby civil society organisations take on government roles) the paper reviews the literature and highlights three key issues: - Civil society is weak in Russia and its contribution to democracy development is limited - The Russian State has be withdrawing from its responsibilities to care for its citizens, leaving a field of opportunity for civil society organisations. - The state has subsequently began to encroach on civil society organisations mainly through the use of legislative changes and government sponsored organisations These trends have far reaching implications for civil society organisations, in particular those which take up or take over government roles and responsibilities. The literary evidence shows that the Russian state leverages its political power into the sphere of civil society similar to how it regained control over the economy in the early 2000s. This Russian variant of civil society attributes the state as a key player in all societal spheres.