A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Enterococcus faecalis PcfC, a spatially localized substrate receptor for type IV secretion of the pCF10 transfer intermediate.

Upon sensing of peptide pheromone, Enterococcus faecalis efficiently transfers plasmid pCF10 through a type IV secretion (T4S) system to recipient cells. The PcfF accessory factor and PcfG relaxase initiate transfer by catalyzing strand-specific nicking at the pCF10 origin of transfer sequence (oriT). Here, we present evidence that PcfF and PcfG spatially coordinate docking of the pCF10 transfer intermediate with PcfC, a membrane-bound putative ATPase related to the coupling proteins of gram-negative T4S machines. PcfC and PcfG fractionated with the membrane and PcfF with the cytoplasm, yet all three proteins formed several punctate foci at the peripheries of pheromone-induced cells as monitored by immunofluorescence microscopy. A PcfC Walker A nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) binding site mutant (K156T) fractionated with the E. faecalis membrane and also formed foci, whereas PcfC deleted of its N-terminal putative transmembrane domain (PcfCDelta N103) distributed uniformly throughout the cytoplasm. Native PcfC and mutant proteins PcfCK156T and PcfCDelta N103 bound pCF10 but not pcfG or Delta oriT mutant plasmids as shown by transfer DNA immunoprecipitation, indicating that PcfC binds only the processed form of pCF10 in vivo. Finally, purified PcfCDelta N103 bound DNA substrates and interacted with purified PcfF and PcfG in vitro. Our findings support a model in which (i) PcfF recruits PcfG to oriT to catalyze T-strand nicking, (ii) PcfF and PcfG spatially position the relaxosome at the cell membrane to stimulate substrate docking with PcfC, and (iii) PcfC initiates substrate transfer through the pCF10 T4S channel by an NTP-dependent mechanism.

Validation of a Spatially Continuous EDEN Water-Surface Model for the Everglades, Florida

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of realtime water-level monitoring, ground-elevation modeling, and water-surface modeling that provides scientists and managers with current (2000-present), online water-stage and water-depth information for the entire freshwater portion of the Greater Everglades. Continuous daily spatial interpolations of the EDEN network stage data are presented on grid with 400-square-meter spacing. EDEN offers a consistent and documented dataset that can be used by scientists and managers to: (1) guide large-scale field operations, (2) integrate hydrologic and ecological responses, and (3) support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem responses to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1999). The target users are biologists and ecologists examining trophic level responses to hydrodynamic changes in the Everglades. The first objective of this report is to validate the spatially continuous EDEN water-surface model for the Everglades, Florida developed by Pearlstine et al. (2007) by using an independent field-measured data-set. The second objective is to demonstrate two applications of the EDEN water-surface model: to estimate site-specific ground elevation by using the validated EDEN water-surface model and observed water depth data; and to create water-depth hydrographs for tree islands. We found that there are no statistically significant differences between model-predicted and field-observed water-stage data in both southern Water Conservation Area (WCA) 3A and WCA 3B. Tree island elevations were derived by subtracting field water-depth measurements from the predicted EDEN water-surface. Water-depth hydrographs were then computed by subtracting tree island elevations from the EDEN water stage. Overall, the model is reliable by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.31 cm. By region, the RMSE is 2.49 cm and 7.77 cm in WCA 3A and 3B, respectively. This new landscape-scale hydrological model has wide applications for ongoing research and management efforts that are vital to restoration of the Florida Everglades. The accurate, high-resolution hydrological data, generated over broad spatial and temporal scales by the EDEN model, provides a previously missing key to understanding the habitat requirements and linkages among native and invasive populations, including fish, wildlife, wading birds, and plants. The EDEN model is a powerful tool that could be adapted for other ecosystem-scale restoration and management programs worldwide.

Sensitivity of a distributed temperature-radiation index melt model based on AWS observations and surface energy balance fluxes, Hurd Peninsula glaciers, Livingston Island, Antarctica

We use an automatic weather station and surface mass balance dataset spanning four melt seasons collected on Hurd Peninsula Glaciers, South Shetland Islands, to investigate the point surface energy balance, to determine the absolute and relative contribution of the various energy fluxes acting on the glacier surface and to estimate the sensitivity of melt to ambient temperature changes. Long-wave incoming radiation is the main energy source for melt, while short-wave radiation is the most important flux controlling the variation of both seasonal and daily mean surface energy balance. Short-wave and long-wave radiation fluxes do, in general, balance each other, resulting in a high correspondence between daily mean net radiation flux and available melt energy flux. We calibrate a distributed melt model driven by air temperature and an expression for the incoming short-wave radiation. The model is calibrated with the data from one of the melt seasons and validated with the data of the three remaining seasons. The model results deviate at most 140 mm w.e. from the corresponding observations using the glaciological method. The model is very sensitive to changes in ambient temperature: a 0.5 ◦ C increase results in 56 % higher melt rates.

A model of the spatially dependent mechanical properties of the axon during its growth

Neuronal growth is a complex process involving many intra- and extracellular mechanisms which are collaborating conjointly to participate to the development of the nervous system. More particularly, the early neocortical development involves the creation of a multilayered structure constituted by neuronal growth (driven by axonal or dendritic guidance cues) as well as cell migration. The underlying mechanisms of such structural lamination not only implies important biochemical changes at the intracellular level through axonal microtubule (de)polymerization and growth cone advance, but also through the directly dependent stress/stretch coupling mechanisms driving them. Efforts have recently focused on modeling approaches aimed at accounting for the effect of mechanical tension or compression on the axonal growth and subsequent soma migration. However, the reciprocal influence of the biochemical structural evolution on the mechanical properties has been mostly disregarded. We thus propose a new model aimed at providing the spatially dependent mechanical properties of the axon during its growth. Our in-house finite difference solver Neurite is used to describe the guanosine triphosphate (GTP) transport through the axon, its dephosphorylation in guanosine diphosphate (GDP), and thus the microtubules polymerization. The model is calibrated against experimental results and the tensile and bending mechanical stiffnesses are ultimately inferred from the spatially dependent microtubule occupancy. Such additional information is believed to be of drastic relevance in the growth cone vicinity, where biomechanical mechanisms are driving axonal growth and pathfinding. More specifically, the confirmation of a lower stiffness in the distal axon ultimately participates in explaining the controversy associated to the tensile role of the growth cone.

Spatially-Explicit Testing of a General Aboveground Carbon Density Estimation Model in aWestern Amazonian Forest Using Airborne LiDAR

Mapping aboveground carbon density in tropical forests can support CO2 emissionmonitoring and provide benefits for national resource management. Although LiDAR technology has been shown to be useful for assessing carbon density patterns, the accuracy and generality of calibrations of LiDAR-based aboveground carbon density (ACD) predictions with those obtained from field inventory techniques should be intensified in order to advance tropical forest carbon mapping. Here we present results from the application of a general ACD estimation model applied with small-footprint LiDAR data and field-based estimates of a 50-ha forest plot in Ecuador?s Yasuní National Park. Subplots used for calibration and validation of the general LiDAR equation were selected based on analysis of topographic position and spatial distribution of aboveground carbon stocks. The results showed that stratification of plot locations based on topography can improve the calibration and application of ACD estimation using airborne LiDAR (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 5.81 Mg?C? ha?1, BIAS = 0.59). These results strongly suggest that a general LiDAR-based approach can be used for mapping aboveground carbon stocks in western lowland Amazonian forests.

A spatially integrated numerical model of inlet hydraulics /

"November 1977."

The influence of memory in a threshold model for distributed task assignment

A nature inspired decentralised multi-agent algorithm is proposed to solve a problem of distributed task selection in which cities produce and store batches of different mail types. Agents must collect and process the mail batches, without a priori knowledge of the available mail at the cities or inter-agent communication. In order to process a different mail type than the previous one, agents must undergo a change-over during which it remains inactive. We propose a threshold based algorithm in order to maximise the overall efficiency (the average amount of mail collected). We show that memory, i.e. the possibility for agents to develop preferences for certain cities, not only leads to emergent cooperation between agents, but also to a significant increase in efficiency (above the theoretical upper limit for any memoryless algorithm), and we systematically investigate the influence of the various model parameters. Finally, we demonstrate the flexibility of the algorithm to changes in circumstances, and its excellent scalability.

NLSE-based model of a random distributed feedback fiber laser

In this work we propose a NLSE-based model of power and spectral properties of the random distributed feedback (DFB) fiber laser. The model is based on coupled set of non-linear Schrödinger equations for pump and Stokes waves with the distributed feedback due to Rayleigh scattering. The model considers random backscattering via its average strength, i.e. we assume that the feedback is incoherent. In addition, this allows us to speed up simulations sufficiently (up to several orders of magnitude). We found that the model of the incoherent feedback predicts the smooth and narrow (comparing with the gain spectral profile) generation spectrum in the random DFB fiber laser. The model allows one to optimize the random laser generation spectrum width varying the dispersion and nonlinearity values: we found, that the high dispersion and low nonlinearity results in narrower spectrum that could be interpreted as four-wave mixing between different spectral components in the quasi-mode-less spectrum of the random laser under study could play an important role in the spectrum formation. Note that the physical mechanism of the random DFB fiber laser formation and broadening is not identified yet. We investigate temporal and statistical properties of the random DFB fiber laser dynamics. Interestingly, we found that the intensity statistics is not Gaussian. The intensity auto-correlation function also reveals that correlations do exist. The possibility to optimize the system parameters to enhance the observed intrinsic spectral correlations to further potentially achieved pulsed (mode-locked) operation of the mode-less random distributed feedback fiber laser is discussed.