Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Molecular modeling as a promising tool to study dendrimer prodrugs delivery

Molecular modeling methodologies were applied to perform preliminary studies concerning the release of active agents from potentially antichagasic and antileishmanial dendrimer prodrugs. The dendrimer was designed having myo-inositol as a core, L-malic acid as a spacer group, and hydroxymethylnitrofurazone (NFOH), 3-hydroxyflavone or quercetin, as active compounds. Each dendrimer presented a particular behavior concerning to the following investigated properties: spatial hindrance, map of electrostatic potential (MEP), and the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital energy (E(LUMO)). Additionally, the findings suggested that the carbonyl group next to the active agent seems to be the most promising ester breaking point. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investment prioritization based on broadscale spatial budgeting to meet downstream targets for suspended sediment loads

On the basis of a spatially distributed sediment budget across a large basin, costs of achieving certain sediment reduction targets in rivers were estimated. A range of investment prioritization scenarios were tested to identify the most cost-effective strategy to control suspended sediment loads. The scenarios were based on successively introducing more information from the sediment budget. The relationship between spatial heterogeneity of contributing sediment sources on cost effectiveness of prioritization was investigated. Cost effectiveness was shown to increase with sequential introduction of sediment budget terms. The solution which most decreased cost was achieved by including spatial information linking sediment sources to the downstream target location. This solution produced cost curves similar to those derived using a genetic algorithm formulation. Appropriate investment prioritization can offer large cost savings because the magnitude of the costs can vary by several times depending on what type of erosion source or sediment delivery mechanism is targeted. Target settings which only consider the erosion source rates can potentially result in spending more money than random management intervention for achieving downstream targets. Coherent spatial patterns of contributing sediment emerge from the budget model and its many inputs. The heterogeneity in these patterns can be summarized in a succinct form. This summary was shown to be consistent with the cost difference between local and regional prioritization for three of four test catchments. To explain the effect for the fourth catchment, the detail of the individual sediment sources needed to be taken into account.

A Comparison of the Home Range Sizes of Mainland and Island Populations of Black-Faced Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus caissara) Using Different Spatial Analysis

The critically endangered black-faced lion tamarin, Leontopithecus caissara, has a restricted geographical distribution consisting of small mainland and island populations, each with distinct habitats in coastal southeastern Brazil. Necessary conservation management actions require an assessment of whether differences in habitats are reflected in use of space by the species. We studied two tamarin groups on the mainland at Sao Paulo state between August 2005 and March 2007, and compared the results with data from Superagui Island. Three home range estimators were used: minimum convex polygon (MCP), Kernel, and the new technique presented dissolved monthly polygons (DMP). These resulted, respectively, in home ranges of 345, 297, and 282 ha for the 12-month duration of the study. Spatial overlap of mainland groups was extensive, whereas temporal overlap was not, a pattern that indicates resource partitioning is an important strategy to avoid intraspecific competition. L. caissara large home ranges seem to be dynamic, with constant incorporation of new areas and abandonment of others through time. The main difference between mainland and island groups is the amount and variety of sleeping sites. A better understanding of the home range sizes, day range lengths, and territorial behavior of this species will aid in developing better management strategies for its protection. Additionally, the presented DMP protocol is a useful improvement over the MCP method as it results in more realistic home range sizes for wildlife species. Am. J. Primatol. 73: 1114-1126, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using a cartographic modeling language to manipulate spectral satellite imagery

Land related information about the Earth's surface is commonIJ found in two forms: (1) map infornlation and (2) satellite image da ta. Satellite imagery provides a good visual picture of what is on the ground but complex image processing is required to interpret features in an image scene. Increasingly, methods are being sought to integrate the knowledge embodied in mop information into the interpretation task, or, alternatively, to bypass interpretation and perform biophysical modeling directly on derived data sources. A cartographic modeling language, as a generic map analysis package, is suggested as a means to integrate geographical knowledge and imagery in a process-oriented view of the Earth. Specialized cartographic models may be developed by users, which incorporate mapping information in performing land classification. In addition, a cartographic modeling language may be enhanced with operators suited to processing remotely sensed imagery. We demonstrate the usefulness of a cartographic modeling language for pre-processing satellite imagery, and define two nerv cartographic operators that evaluate image neighborhoods as post-processing operations to interpret thematic map values. The language and operators are demonstrated with an example image classification task.

Spatially dynamic expression of Sry in mouse genital ridges

We have studied the spatial dynamics of Sry transcription in the genital ridges of mouse embryos. We find that Sry is expressed in a dynamic wave that emanates from the central and/or anterior regions, extends subsequently to both poles, and ends in the caudal pole. This dynamism may explain the relative positioning of ovarian and testicular tissue seen in ovotestes in mice. Since direct regulatory targets of SRY ought to be expressed in a corresponding or complimentary wave, our observations pave the way for identification of target genes. Sry is expressed in internal cells but not in coelomic surface epithelial cells, indicating that its effect on proliferation of surface cells is achieved non-cell-autonomously. The cellular dynamism of Sry expression revealed in this study thus provides important insights into both the cellular and molecular mode of action of SRY, and how perturbations in Sry expression can lead to anomalies of sexual development. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

EphA receptors and ephrin-A ligands exhibit highly regulated spatial and temporal expression patterns in the developing olfactory system

The spatiotemporal expression patterns of the chemorepulsive EphA receptors, EphA4 and EphA7, and three ephrins-A2, A4 and A5, were examined in the developing rat primary olfactory system. Unlike the visual system that has simple and stable gradients of Ephs and ephrins, the olfactory system demonstrates complex spatiotemporal expression patterns of these molecules. Using immunohistochemistry, we demonstrate that expression of these molecules is dynamic and tightly regulated both within and between different cell types. We reveal restricted targeting of these proteins within subcellular compartments of some neurons. EphA4, ephrin-A2 and ephrin-A5 were expressed by primary olfactory axons during the embryonic formation of the olfactory nerve. There were no gradients in expression along the rostrocaudal or ventrodorsal axes in the nasal cavity and olfactory bulb. However, during the early neonatal period, axons expressing different levels of ephrin-A5 sorted out and terminated in a subpopulation of glomeruli that were mosaically dispersed throughout the bulb. The expression of EphA4 and ephrin-A2 was dramatically down-regulated on all axons during the early neonatal period of glomerular formation. The uniform co-expression of receptors and ligands before glomerular formation suggests they play a generic role in axon-axon interactions in the olfactory nerve and nerve fibre layer. In contrast, loss of EphA4 from axons during glomerular formation may facilitate the interaction of ephrin-A5 with Eph receptors on target cells in the bulb. While EphA4, EphA5 and EphA7 are not mosaically expressed by bulbar neurons, other Eph receptors may have expression patterns complementary to the ephrin-A5-positive subpopulation of glomeruli. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite difference time domain (FDTD) method for modeling the effect of switched gradients on the human body in MRI

Numerical modeling of the eddy currents induced in the human body by the pulsed field gradients in MRI presents a difficult computational problem. It requires an efficient and accurate computational method for high spatial resolution analyses with a relatively low input frequency. In this article, a new technique is described which allows the finite difference time domain (FDTD) method to be efficiently applied over a very large frequency range, including low frequencies. This is not the case in conventional FDTD-based methods. A method of implementing streamline gradients in FDTD is presented, as well as comparative analyses which show that the correct source injection in the FDTD simulation plays a crucial rule in obtaining accurate solutions. In particular, making use of the derivative of the input source waveform is shown to provide distinct benefits in accuracy over direct source injection. In the method, no alterations to the properties of either the source or the transmission media are required. The method is essentially frequency independent and the source injection method has been verified against examples with analytical solutions. Results are presented showing the spatial distribution of gradient-induced electric fields and eddy currents in a complete body model.

Power converter topologies for wind energy conversion systems: Integrated modeling, control strategy and performance simulation

This paper presents new integrated model for variable-speed wind energy conversion systems, considering a more accurate dynamic of the wind turbine, rotor, generator, power converter and filter. Pulse width modulation by space vector modulation associated with sliding mode is used for controlling the power converters. Also, power factor control is introduced at the output of the power converters. Comprehensive performance simulation studies are carried out with matrix, two-level and multilevel power converter topologies in order to adequately assert the system performance. Conclusions are duly drawn.

Mathematical modeling of pressurized system behaviour with entrapped air

The presence of entrapped air in pressurized hydraulic systems is considered a critical condition for the infrastructure security, due to the transient pressure enhancement related with its dynamic behaviour, similar to non-linear spring action. A mathematical model for the assessment of hydraulic transients resulting from rapid pressurizations, under referred condition is presented. Water movement was modeled through the elastic column theory considering a moving liquid boundary and the entrapped air pocket as lumped gas mass, where the acoustic effects are negligible. The method of characteristics was used to obtain the numerical solution of the liquid flow. The resulting model is applied to an experimental set-up having entrapped air in the top of a vertical pipe section and the numerical results are analyzed.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in Northern Angola

Anaemia has a significant impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nutritional and infectious causes of anaemia are geographically variable and anaemia maps based on information on the major aetiologies of anaemia are important for identifying communities most in need and the relative contribution of major causes. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping, by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modeling approaches. We aimed to a) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) for anaemia endemicity in children aged ≤15 years and b) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in Northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data on children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variation in these infections. The predictions and their associated uncertainty were used as inputs for a model of anemia prevalence to predict small-scale spatial variation of anaemia. Stunting, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6%, and 9.8%, of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control program with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases, such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infection.

Monte Carlo modeling and simulations of the High Definition (HD120) micro MLC and validation against measurements for a 6 MV beam

Purpose: The most recent Varian® micro multileaf collimator(MLC), the High Definition (HD120) MLC, was modeled using the BEAMNRCMonte Carlo code. This model was incorporated into a Varian medical linear accelerator, for a 6 MV beam, in static and dynamic mode. The model was validated by comparing simulated profiles with measurements. Methods: The Varian® Trilogy® (2300C/D) accelerator model was accurately implemented using the state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulation program BEAMNRC and validated against off-axis and depth dose profiles measured using ionization chambers, by adjusting the energy and the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the initial electron beam. The HD120 MLC was modeled by developing a new BEAMNRC component module (CM), designated HDMLC, adapting the available DYNVMLC CM and incorporating the specific characteristics of this new micro MLC. The leaf dimensions were provided by the manufacturer. The geometry was visualized by tracing particles through the CM and recording their position when a leaf boundary is crossed. The leaf material density and abutting air gap between leaves were adjusted in order to obtain a good agreement between the simulated leakage profiles and EBT2 film measurements performed in a solid water phantom. To validate the HDMLC implementation, additional MLC static patterns were also simulated and compared to additional measurements. Furthermore, the ability to simulate dynamic MLC fields was implemented in the HDMLC CM. The simulation results of these fields were compared with EBT2 film measurements performed in a solid water phantom. Results: Overall, the discrepancies, with and without MLC, between the opened field simulations and the measurements using ionization chambers in a water phantom, for the off-axis profiles are below 2% and in depth-dose profiles are below 2% after the maximum dose depth and below 4% in the build-up region. On the conditions of these simulations, this tungsten-based MLC has a density of 18.7 g cm− 3 and an overall leakage of about 1.1 ± 0.03%. The discrepancies between the film measured and simulated closed and blocked fields are below 2% and 8%, respectively. Other measurements were performed for alternated leaf patterns and the agreement is satisfactory (to within 4%). The dynamic mode for this MLC was implemented and the discrepancies between film measurements and simulations are within 4%. Conclusions: The Varian® Trilogy® (2300 C/D) linear accelerator including the HD120 MLC was successfully modeled and simulated using the Monte CarloBEAMNRC code by developing an independent CM, the HDMLC CM, either in static and dynamic modes.

Role of the wider Azores region as a nursery ground for North Atlantic blue shark (Prionace glauca)

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha)