Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

Identificación de Prácticas Empresariales para el Mejoramiento Continuo en Plusagro S.A.S.

Este proyecto que se llevara a cabo en la compañía Plusagro S.A.S. la cual busca mejorar de forma sustancial la cultura organizacional de la compañía, para que desarrolle al máximo las ventajas competitivas que encuentra en el mercado, una de estas grandes ventajas es que al tener la exclusividad de su proveedor principal Kursan. Se vuelve de suma importancia saber que existen otras marcas en el mercado de los productos agrícolas que ofrece Plusagro S.A.S. pero se ha encontrado en común acuerdo con clientes insatisfechos que la calidad de los productos turcos en cuánto a maquinaría lechera es superior a la de otras marcas que importan la maquinaria lechera desde China y Corea. Por esto es fundamental recalcar que Kursan es uno de los productores mundiales de estas máquinas desde 1984 la más fuerte en toda la región de oriente medio y su sede principal está ubicada en Estambul, Turquía. (Kursan, 2014). El negocio de Plusagro S.A.S. se encuentra en uno de los sectores más competitivos del país, pero sin duda alguna es uno de los que más importancia está cobrando, debido al boom agrícola que están viviendo en las regiones ganaderas y agricultoras del país después de las nuevas medidas de inversión que está tomando el gobierno nacional para que sean más competitivas en su desarrollo y crecimiento a nivel nacional. (MinAgricultura, 2014), uno de los ítems más importantes que podemos encontrar, es el hecho de que Colombia y Bélgica iniciaran un plan de trabajo para ampliar el comercio de productos agropecuarios, según el titular de la cartera agropecuaria, este plan de trabajo, que se implementará en enero de 2015, tendrá como prioridad los temas fitosanitarios y de buenas prácticas agrícolas (MinAgricultura, 2014). En lo cual Plusagro S.A.S puede buscar una gran ventaja competitiva que lo lleve a obtener un valor agregado al ya tener conocimiento del mercado europeo será más sencillo entrar a negociar con nuevos proveedores que vengan de este país. También de estos mercados no explorados se pueden llegar a encontrar nuevas prácticas agrícolas, diversas especies animales y nuevas tecnologías en cuanto a maquinaría. De igual forma la empresa ha presentado un crecimiento económico bastante alto, para el poco tiempo que lleva en el mercado, esto se ve evidenciado en las ventas que se realizaron el año 2013 las cuales ascienden a $730.500.000. (Plusagro S.A.S., 2013). Este crecimiento no se debe a solo suerte, este se ha trabajado con diversas estrategias desde el momento en el que se pensó la creación de la empresa, ya que esta nace de la necesidad de los ganaderos y agricultores del sector o localización en donde comenzó a comercializarse los productos, en los municipios de Cumaral, Restrepo y los caseríos como Guacabina y actualmente se ha extendido a diversos municipios del departamento del Meta, como lo son Acacias, Castilla la Nueva, Guamal, Cubarral, San Martín, Puerto López, Barranca de Upía, Puerto Gaitán, Granada y Vista Hermosa . (Plusagro S.A.S., 2014) Se espera que con la realización de este proyecto enfocado en una metodología Sure - Step (Paso Seguro) de Microsoft aplicada a las necesidades de la compañía, se pueda mejorar considerablemente la organización para así mejorar estos promedios de ventas y crecer en el aspecto económico. (Microsoft Dynamics, 2010). Es importante resaltar que ningún proyecto es perfecto y hay que estar consiente que pueden presentarse diversos obstáculos en el camino, pero la idea de implementar la Sure - Step está fundamentada en minimizar estos riesgo que pueden ocurrir en el proyecto y que si se fundamenta en unas fases especificas se pueda gestionar y finalizar con éxito, conllevando a que Plusagro S.A.S. pueda mejorar su cultura organizacional y siga con un crecimiento constante en el mercado.

Terminal: a miracle play with popular music from the end of the world

Terminal: A Miracle Play with Popular Music from the End of the World is a film and live performance project exploring the politics of post-apocalyptic fiction. A theatrical staging of a morality play for end times and future folk music, it recasts eschatology, as a foundational myth for a future society. Post-apocalyptic writing and cinema are grounded in an ethos of survivalism. Invoking Rousseau’s state of nature, or time before government, these fictions propose violent scenarios in which nuclear holocaust, environmental catastrophe and other disasters generate an individualistic politics of pure pragmatism, negating the possibility of democratic deliberation. Terminal narrates this familiar scenario, but at the same time questions its validity. The film, shot on black and white VHS at Kurt Schwitters’ Merzbarn in Cumbria, dramatises a series of conversations between future-historical archetypes about the needs and pressures of the situation in which they find themselves at the end of the world. The performers then gather to play worshipful songs about acid rain, radiation sickness and eating the dog, using a mix of conventional, obscure and makeshift instruments In the tradition of books such as Russell Hoban’s Riddley Walker and Arthur M. Miller Jr.’s A Canticle for Liebowitz, Terminal imagines artistic expression and new folk traditions for a world to come after the apocalypse. If, as Slavoj Žižek would have it, it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to think of the end of capitalism, the project juxtaposes these two endpoints to test out how alternative scenarios might emerge from the collaborative practice of making theatre and music against a setting of social collapse.

Gallic war songs (II): Marcus Cicero, Quintus Cicero, and Caesar’s invasion of Britain

This article assembles and examines the evidence for the poetic outputs of Marcus and Quintus Cicero related to Caesar’s invasion of Britain. Following the establishment of a relative chronology of the evidence for their work, it is argued that Quintus Cicero most likely produced a fabula praetexta (not an epic poem, as commonly assumed). His brother, in turn, wrote an epic, based on Quintus’ eye-witness reports. Careful analysis of the ancient discourse about this piece reveals insights in Cicero’s poetic workshop and the creation of ‘archival truth’ through narrativising historical events in epic poetry. Finally, a case is made for greater attention to financial affairs between Caesar and the Ciceros that happen to coincide with the drafting process of their respective literary works.

Can humming caregivers´ facilitate feeding during mealtime situations with persons with dementia? A qualitative study

Background. ‘Music Therapeutic Caregiving’, defined as when caregivers’ sing for or together with persons with dementia care situations, has been shown to facilitate the caring situation, and enhance positive and decrease negative expressions in persons with dementia. No studies about singing during mealtimes have been conducted, and this project was designed to elucidate this. However, since previous studies have shown that there is a risk that persons with dementia will start to sing along with the caregiver, the caregiver in this study hummed such that the person with dementia did not sing instead of eat. Aim. To describe professional caregivers’ experiences of humming during meal time while feeding persons with dementia. Method. An intervention with caregivers humming was implemented during lunch time. Focus group interviews were conducted to fetch the caregivers experiences. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. Results. The caregivers described that humming disseminated relaxation and joy, and awakened memories about the songs hummed which encouraged the persons with the dementia to join in the songs. They also described that humming seemed to make the persons with dementia associate with mealtime and could make them eat more. However it also revealed suspiciousness and agitation from the persons with dementia. Conclusion. Humming during mealtime revealed mainly positive as well as some negative influences. More and larger studies are needed to be able to draw general conclusions.

On a nest of the Planalto Woodcreeper, Dendrocolaptes platyrostris, with taxonomic and conservation notes

A pair of Planalto Woodcreepers (Dendrocolaptes platyrostris) fed young in a nest cavity 6 m up in a wooded botanic garden of an old eucalyptus grove near São Paulo, Brazil, during October 1982. The pair often visited together at first, one (likely male) raising its head feathers as noted in other species of the genus. Feedings were less frequent at midday. Songs of the southeastern moist forest D. p. platyrostris were strikingly different from inland dry forest D. p. intermedius, despite intermediate specimens where the two rather distinctly colored forms come together. There are several poorly studied forms in interior dry forests, which need much more conservation effort.

Farmacología en la tercera edad: Medicamentos de uso continuo y peligros de la interacción medicamentosa

Introduction: It was observed a considerable growth of elderly people. They are who use more medicines. The physiological changes associated with the age advancing can make pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic alterations. The cognitive decline, physical limitations and associate chronic pathology affect the medications appropriately use ability. Aims: Based in a literature review, appoint the main pharmacological groups prescribed to the elderly and the drug-drug interaction risks. Conclusion: The most of elderly use continually at least 3 medicines, the most prescribed are to cardiovascular and psychic diseases treatment.

Entrenamiento continuo vs. interválico corriendo en piscina profunda: Efectos sobre la salud de las mujeres obesas

Objectives. To search intermittent and continous trainning (IT and CT, respectively) effects through deep water running for the control and prevention of excessive body fat accumulation and improvement of quality of life. Methods. Experimental study composed by 30 women, aged between 34 to 58 years old, during 12 weeks, three sessions per week, 47 minutes each. Body composition, cardiorespiratory condition and Quality of Life by WHOQOL-Brief were considered. Student's and Wilcoxon's non parametric tests were applied at 5% significance level. Results. With the only exception for social domain of quality of life, all investigated variables revealed improvement in both groups for IT in comparison to CT. Conclusion. Deep water running contributes to body fat reduction, physical fitness evolution and improvement of WHOQOL-Brief domains, regardless of the trainning type conducted. © 2012 Revista Andaluza de Medicina del Deporte.

The effects of auditory stimulation with music on heart rate variability in healthy women

OBJECTIVES: There are no data in the literature with regard to the acute effects of different styles of music on the geometric indices of heart rate variability. In this study, we evaluated the acute effects of relaxant baroque and excitatory heavy metal music on the geometric indices of heart rate variability in women. METHODS: We conducted this study in 21 healthy women ranging in age from 18 to 35 years. We excluded persons with previous experience with musical instruments and persons who had an affinity for the song styles. We evaluated two groups: Group 1 (n = 21), who were exposed to relaxant classical baroque musical and excitatory heavy metal auditory stimulation; and Group 2 (n = 19), who were exposed to both styles of music and white noise auditory stimulation. Using earphones, the volunteers were exposed to baroque or heavy metal music for five minutes. After the first music exposure to baroque or heavy metal music, they remained at rest for five minutes; subsequently, they were re-exposed to the opposite music (70-80 dB). A different group of women were exposed to the same music styles plus white noise auditory stimulation (90 dB). The sequence of the songs was randomized for each individual. We analyzed the following indices: triangular index, triangular interpolation of RR intervals and Poincaré plot (standard deviation of instantaneous beat-by-beat variability, standard deviation of the long-term RR interval, standard deviation of instantaneous beat-by-beat variability and standard deviation of the long-term RR interval ratio), low frequency, high frequency, low frequency/high frequency ratio, standard deviation of all the normal RR intervals, root-mean square of differences between the adjacent normal RR intervals and the percentage of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50 ms. Heart rate variability was recorded at rest for 10 minutes. RESULTS: The triangular index and the standard deviation of the long-term RR interval indices were reduced during exposure to both music styles in the first group and tended to decrease in the second group whereas the white noise exposure decreased the high frequency index. We observed no changes regarding the triangular interpolation of RR intervals, standard deviation of instantaneous beat-by-beat variability and standard deviation of instantaneous beat-by-beat variability/standard deviation in the long-term RR interval ratio. CONCLUSION: We suggest that relaxant baroque and excitatory heavy metal music slightly decrease global heart rate variability because of the equivalent sound level.

Cardiac autonomic regulation during exposure to auditory stimulation with classical baroque or heavy metal music of different intensities

Objectives: The effects of chronic music auditory stimulation on the cardiovascular system have been investigated in the literature. However, data regarding the acute effects of different styles of music on cardiac autonomic regulation are lacking. The literature has indicated that auditory stimulation with white noise above 50 dB induces cardiac responses. We aimed to evaluate the acute effects of classical baroque and heavy metal music of different intensities on cardiac autonomic regulation. Study design: The study was performed in 16 healthy men aged 18-25 years. All procedures were performed in the same soundproof room. We analyzed heart rate variability (HRV) in time (standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals [SDNN], root-mean square of differences [RMSSD] and percentage of adjacent NN intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50 ms [pNN50]) and frequency (low frequency [LF], high frequency [HF] and LF/HF ratio) domains. HRV was recorded at rest for 10 minutes. Subsequently, the volunteers were exposed to one of the two musical styles (classical baroque or heavy metal music) for five minutes through an earphone, followed by a five-minute period of rest, and then they were exposed to the other style for another five minutes. The subjects were exposed to three equivalent sound levels (60- 70dB, 70-80dB and 80-90dB). The sequence of songs was randomized for each individual. Results: Auditory stimulation with heavy metal music did not influence HRV indices in the time and frequency domains in the three equivalent sound level ranges. The same was observed with classical baroque musical auditory stimulation with the three equivalent sound level ranges. Conclusion: Musical auditory stimulation of different intensities did not influence cardiac autonomic regulation in men.

Auditory stimulation with music influences the geometric indices of heart rate variability in men

Background: Chronic classical music was reported to increase parasympathetic activitywhen evaluating heart rate variability (HRV). It is poor in the literature investigation of the acute effects of baroque and heavy metal styles of musical auditory stimulation on HRV. In this study we evaluated the acute effects of relaxant baroque and excitatory heavy metal music on the geometric indices of HRV in healthy men. Method: The study was performed in 12 healthy men between 18 and 30 years old. We excluded persons with previous experience with music instrument and those who had affinity with the song styles. We analyzed the following indices: RRtri, TINN and Poincaré plot (SD1, SD2 and SD1/SD2 ratio). HRV was recorded at rest for ten minutes. Subsequently they were exposed to relaxant baroque or excitatory heavy metal music for five minutes through an earphone. After the first music exposure they remained at rest for more five minutes and them they were exposed again to Baroque or Heavy Metal music (65–80 dB). The sequence of songs was randomized for each individual. Results: The RRTri and SD2 indices were reduced during the heavy metal musical auditory stimulation (p < 0.05). No changes were observed regarding TINN, SD1 and SD1/SD2 ratio (p > 0.05).The qualitative Poincaré plot analysis indicated that during relaxant classical baroque music there was observed a higher beat-to-beat dispersion of RR intervals compared with no music exposure and during excitatory heavy metal musical auditory stimulation, showing higher HRV. Conclusion: We suggest that excitatory heavy metal music acutely decreases global HRV.

Arranjo fisico na montagem com fluxo continuo nas superficies de comando composto

Based on the fierce competitiveness of manufacturing companies and the planning problems arising from the lack of flexibility and forecasting demand, companies are increasingly looking to reflect on the most appropriate methods to manage its manufacture. Today it is possible to obtain higher gains and lower costs through very efficient tools, this paper uses action-research to model and implement the physical layout of a manufacturing cell, with strong theoretical basement returned to Lean Production System and acting systematically in flexibility in mounting. Through observation and joint action of the observer and staff can report problems that occurred during the phases of planning and implementation of improvements. With the improvement of the physical arrangement in the assembly was possible to obtain significant gains by reducing the production cycle, the manpower required, spending of non-compliance and increasing productivity, final product quality and health in the workplace

Observability of high density tracing molecular lines in lensed galaxies with the Atacama large millimeter array

Lo scopo di questo lavoro di tesi è indagare le capacità di ALMA di osservare il continuo e le righe molecolari di emissione di HCN, HCO+ e HNC, in galassie lensate ad alto z, nelle prime fasi della loro formazione. Per farlo vengono utilizzate osservazioni ALMA di righe di emissione molecolare, relative a dati pubblici di Ciclo 0. Queste osservazioni vengono utilizzate per simulare in modo realistico l’emissione da parte di galassie ad alto z e la risposta osservativa del telescopio, assumendo diverse possibili geometrie di lensing. Inoltre le recenti osservazioni ALMA sono state utilizzate per aggiornare le relazioni già esistenti tra la luminosità FIR e la luminosità delle righe molecolari. Queste recenti osservazioni con maggiore sensibilità e risoluzione angolare, sembrano essere in buon accordo con le precedenti osservazioni. Per realizzare questo progetto di tesi, sono stati scaricati dall’archivio ALMA i dati non calibrati relativi a due sorgenti ben studiate: NGC1614, rappresentativa delle galassie di tipo starburst ed IRAS 20551-4250, un AGN oscurato. Il processo di calibrazione è stato ripetuto per esaminare le proprietà dei cubi di dati utilizzando il pacchetto Common Astronomy Software Applications (CASA). Le righe spettrali osservate e l’emissione del continuo sono state successivamente estrapolate ad alto z riscalando adeguatamente le distanze, le dimensioni delle sorgenti e le frequenze di emissione. In seguito è stato applicato un modello di lensing gravitazionale basato su quello di Lapi et al. (2012). Sono state considerate diverse configurazioni tra lente e sorgente per ottenere diverse geometrie delle immagini e diversi fattori di amplificazione. Infine stato utilizzato il software CASA per simulare le osservazioni ALMA in modo da verificare le capacità osservative del telescopio al variare della geometria del sistema. Per ogni riga molecolare e per l’emissione del continuo sono state determinate la sensibilit e la risoluzione che possono essere raggiunte con le osservazioni ALMA e sono state analizzate alcune strategie osservative per effettuare survey di righe spettrali in oggetti lensati. Inoltre stata analizzata la possibilit di caratterizzare oggetti starburst ed AGN dai rapporti tra le righe di emissione delle molecole traccianti di alta densit. Le prestazioni di ALMA consentiranno di distinguere e stimare i contributi relativi di SB ed AGN in galassie lensate a z > 2.5, quindi vicine alla loro presunta epoca di formazione (Lapi et al. 2010), in meno di 5 minuti di osservazione per qualsiasi fattore di magnificazione. Nel presente lavoro sono state inoltre discusse alcune strategie osservative per condurre survey o followup per osservare le righe di HCN(4-3), HCO+(4-3) e HNC(4-3) in galassie lensate a redshift 2.5 < z < 3, dimostrando che sono possibili per campioni statisticamente significativi in tempi relativamente brevi.

Semantic priming of familiar songs

We explored the functional organization of semantic memory for music by comparing priming across familiar songs both within modalities (Experiment 1, tune to tune; Experiment 3, category label to lyrics) and across modalities (Experiment 2, category label to tune; Experiment 4, tune to lyrics). Participants judged whether or not the target tune or lyrics were real (akin to lexical decision tasks). We found significant priming, analogous to linguistic associative-priming effects, in reaction times for related primes as compared to unrelated primes, but primarily for within-modality comparisons. Reaction times to tunes (e.g., "Silent Night") were faster following related tunes ("Deck the Hall") than following unrelated tunes ("God Bless America"). However, a category label (e.g., Christmas) did not prime tunes from within that category. Lyrics were primed by a related category label, but not by a related tune. These results support the conceptual organization of music in semantic memory, but with potentially weaker associations across modalities.

Effect of unilateral temporal-lobe excision on perception and imagery of songs

Auditory imagery for songs was studied in two groups of patients with left or right temporal-lobe excision for control of epilepsy, and a group of matched normal control subjects. Two tasks were used. In the perceptual task, subjects saw the text of a familiar song and simultaneously heard it sung. On each trial they judged if the second of two capitalized lyrics was higher or lower in pitch than the first. The imagery task was identical in all respects except that no song was presented, so that subjects had to generate an auditory image of the song. The results indicated that all subjects found the imagery task more difficult than the perceptual task, but patients with right temporal-lobe damage performed significantly worse on both tasks than either patients with left temporal-lobe lesions or normal control subjects. These results support the idea that imagery arises from activation of a neural substrate shared with perceptual mechanisms, and provides evidence for a right temporal- lobe specialization for this type of auditory imaginal processing.