Simulating a latent susceptible pool to examine the impact on cardiovascular mortality

The health effects of cold and hot temperatures are strongest in the frail and elderly. A large number of deaths in this "susceptible pool" after heat waves and cold snaps can cause mortality displacement, where an immediate increase in mortality is somewhat offset by a subsequent decrease in the following weeks. There may also be longer-term implications, as reductions in the pool caused by hot summers can reduce cold-related mortality in the following winter. A state-space model was used to simulate the numbers in the susceptible pool over time. We simulated the effects of harsh winters and heat waves, and varied the size of the susceptible pool. The larger the susceptible pool the smaller the mortality displacement. When 1% of the population were susceptible a harsh winter lead to an average of just 3 months of life lost per cold-related death, whereas a pool size of 10% meant that 24 months of life were lost per death. The impact of a cold spell on months of life lost was greater when the increased risk of death also applied to healthy people. The number of deaths caused by an August heat wave were reduced when there was a prior heat wave in June which reduced the susceptible pool. We were able to mimic some observed seasonal patterns in mortality using a simple state-space model. A better understanding of the size and dynamics of the susceptible pool will improve our understanding of the health effects of temperature.

Numerical simulation of a new two-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation in non-homogeneous porous media

Percolation flow problems are discussed in many research fields, such as seepage hydraulics, groundwater hydraulics, groundwater dynamics and fluid dynamics in porous media. Many physical processes appear to exhibit fractional-order behavior that may vary with time, or space, or space and time. The theory of pseudodifferential operators and equations has been used to deal with this situation. In this paper we use a fractional Darcys law with variable order Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives, this leads to a new variable-order fractional percolation equation. In this paper, a new two-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation is considered. A new implicit numerical method and an alternating direct method for the two-dimensional variable-order fractional model is proposed. Consistency, stability and convergence of the implicit finite difference method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods. This technique can be used to simulate a three-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation.

Numerical methods and analysis for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection–dispersion models (FADMs) is considered. These models include five fractional advection–dispersion models, i.e., the time FADM, the mobile/immobile time FADM with a time Caputo fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with two sides Riemann–Liouville derivatives, the time–space FADM and the time fractional advection–diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. These equations can be used to simulate the regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADMs. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analysed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis.

Towards determining soft tissue properties for modelling spine surgery : current progress and challenges

Current complication rates for adolescent scoliosis surgery necessitate the development of better surgical planning tools to improve outcomes. Here we present our approach to developing finite element models of the thoracolumbar spine for deformity surgery simulation, with patient-specific model anatomy based on low-dose pre-operative computed tomography scans. In a first step towards defining patient-specific tissue properties, an initial 'benchmark' set of properties were used to simulate a clinically performed pre-operative spinal flexibility assessment, the fulcrum bending radiograph. Clinical data for ten patients were compared with the simulated results for this assessment and in cases where these data differed by more than 10%, soft tissue properties for the costo-vertebral joint (CVJt) were altered to achieve better agreement. Results from these analyses showed that changing the CVJt stiffness resulted in acceptable agreement between clinical and simulated flexibility in two of the six cases. In light of these results and those of our previous studies in this area, it is suggested that spinal flexibility in the fulcrum bending test is not governed by any single soft tissue structure acting in isolation. More detailed biomechanical characterisation of the fulcrum bending test is required to provide better data for determination of patient-specific soft tissue properties.

Modelling passenger flow at airport terminals : individual agent decision model for stochastic passenger behaviour

Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

Evaluation of fibroin-based scaffolds for ocular tissue reconstruction

The epithelium of the corneolimbus contains stem cells for regenerating the corneal epithelium. Diseases and injuries affecting the limbus can lead to a condition known as limbal stem cell deficiency (LSCD), which results in loss of the corneal epithelium, and subsequent chronic inflammation and scarring of the ocular surface. Advances in the treatment of LSCD have been achieved through use of cultured human limbal epithelial (HLE) grafts to restore epithelial stem cells of the ocular surface. These epithelial grafts are usually produced by the ex vivo expansion of HLE cells on human donor amniotic membrane (AM), but this is not without limitations. Although AM is the most widely accepted substratum for HLE transplantation, donor variation, risk of disease transfer, and rising costs have led to the search for alternative biomaterials to improve the surgical outcome of LSCD. Recent studies have demonstrated that Bombyx mori silk fibroin (hereafter referred to as fibroin) membranes support the growth of primary HLE cells, and thus this thesis aims to explore the possibility of using fibroin as a biomaterial for ocular surface reconstruction. Optimistically, the grafted sheets of cultured epithelium would provide a replenishing source of epithelial progenitor cells for maintaining the corneal epithelium, however, the HLE cells lose their progenitor cell characteristics once removed from their niche. More severe ocular surface injuries, which result in stromal scarring, damage the epithelial stem cell niche, which subsequently leads to poor corneal re-epithelialisation post-grafting. An ideal solution to repairing the corneal limbus would therefore be to grow and transplant HLE cells on a biomaterial that also provides a means for replacing underlying stromal cells required to better simulate the normal stem cell niche. The recent discovery of limbal mesenchymal stromal cells (L-MSC) provides a possibility for stromal repair and regeneration, and therefore, this thesis presents the use of fibroin as a possible biomaterial to support a three dimensional tissue engineered corneolimbus with both an HLE and underlying L-MSC layer. Investigation into optimal scaffold design is necessary, including adequate separation of epithelial and stromal layers, as well as direct cell-cell contact. Firstly, the attachment, morphology and phenotype of HLE cells grown on fibroin were directly compared to that observed on donor AM, the current clinical standard substrate for HLE transplantation. The production, transparency, and permeability of fibroin membranes were also evaluated in this part of the study. Results revealed that fibroin membranes could be routinely produced using a custom-made film casting table and were found to be transparent and permeable. Attachment of HLE cells to fibroin after 4 hours in serum-free medium was similar to that supported by tissue culture plastic but approximately 6-fold less than that observed on AM. While HLE cultured on AM displayed superior stratification, epithelia constructed from HLE on fibroin maintained evidence of corneal phenotype (cytokeratin pair 3/12 expression; CK3/12) and displayed a comparable number and distribution of ÄNp63+ progenitor cells to that seen in cultures grown on AM. These results confirm the suitability of membranes constructed from silk fibroin as a possible substrate for HLE cultivation. One of the most important aspects in corneolimbal tissue engineering is to consider the reconstruction of the limbal stem cell niche to help form the natural limbus in situ. MSC with similar properties to bone marrow derived-MSC (BM-MSC) have recently been grown from the limbus of the human cornea. This thesis evaluated methods for culturing L-MSC and limbal keratocytes using various serum-free media. The phenotype of resulting cultures was examined using photography, flow cytometry for CD34 (keratocyte marker), CD45 (bone marrow-derived cell marker), CD73, CD90, CD105 (collectively MSC markers), CD141 (epithelial/vascular endothelial marker), and CD271 (neuronal marker), immunocytochemistry (alpha-smooth muscle actin; á-sma), differentiation assays (osteogenesis, adipogenesis and chrondrogenesis), and co-culture experiments with HLE cells. While all techniques supported to varying degrees establishment of keratocyte and L-MSC cultures, sustained growth and serial propagation was only achieved in serum-supplemented medium or the MesenCult-XF„¥ culture system (Stem Cell Technologies). Cultures established in MesenCult-XF„¥ grew faster than those grown in serum-supplemented medium and retained a more optimal MSC phenotype. L-MSC cultivated in MesenCult-XFR were also positive for CD141, rarely expressed £\-sma, and displayed multi-potency. L-MSC supported growth of HLE cells, with the largest epithelial islands being observed in the presence of L-MSC established in MesenCult-XF„¥ medium. All HLE cultures supported by L-MSC widely expressed the progenitor cell marker £GNp63, along with the corneal differentiation marker CK3/12. Our findings conclude that MesenCult-XFR is a superior culture system for L-MSC, but further studies are required to explore the significance of CD141 expression in these cells. Following on from the findings of the previous two parts, silk fibroin was tested as a novel dual-layer construct containing both an epithelium and underlying stroma for corneolimbal reconstruction. In this section, the growth and phenotype of HLE cells on non-porous versus porous fibroin membranes was compared. Furthermore, the growth of L-MSC in either serum-supplemented medium or the MesenCult-XFR culture system within fibroin fibrous mats was investigated. Lastly, the co-culture of HLE and L-MSC in serum-supplemented medium on and within fibroin dual-layer constructs was also examined. HLE on porous membranes displayed a flattened and squamous monolayer; in contrast, HLE on non-porous fibroin appeared cuboidal and stratified closer in appearance to a normal corneal epithelium. Both constructs maintained CK3/12 expression and distribution of £GNp63+ progenitor cells. Dual-layer fibroin scaffolds consisting of HLE cells and L-MSC maintained a similar phenotype as on the single layers alone. Overall, the present study proposed to create a three dimensional limbal tissue substitute of HLE cells and L-MSC together, ultimately for safe and beneficial transplantation back into the human eye. The results show that HLE and L-MSC can be cultivated separately and together whilst maintaining a clinically feasible phenotype containing a majority of progenitor cells. In addition, L-MSC were able to be cultivated routinely in the MesenCult-XF® culture system while maintaining a high purity for the MSC characteristic phenotype. However, as a serum-free culture medium was not found to sustain growth of both HLE and L-MSC, the combination scaffold was created in serum-supplemented medium, indicating that further refinement of this cultured limbal scaffold is required. This thesis has also demonstrated a potential novel marker for L-MSC, and has generated knowledge which may impact on the understanding of stromal-epithelial interactions. These results support the feasibility of a dual-layer tissue engineered corneolimbus constructed from silk fibroin, and warrant further studies into the potential benefits it offers to corneolimbal tissue regeneration. Further refinement of this technology should explore the potential benefits of using epithelial-stromal co-cultures with MesenCult-XF® derived L-MSC. Subsequent investigations into the effects of long-term culture on the phenotype and behaviour of the cells in the dual-layer scaffolds are also required. While this project demonstrated the feasibility in vitro for the production of a dual-layer tissue engineered corneolimbus, further studies are required to test the efficacy of the limbal scaffold in vivo. Future in vivo studies are essential to fully understand the integration and degradation of silk fibroin biomaterials in the cornea over time. Subsequent experiments should also investigate the use of both AM and silk fibroin with epithelial and stromal cell co-cultures in an animal model of LSCD. The outcomes of this project have provided a foundation for research into corneolimbal reconstruction using biomaterials and offer a stepping stone for future studies into corneolimbal tissue engineering.

Numerical modelling of load bearing LSF Walls under fire conditions

Abstract. Fire safety of light gauge cold-formed steel frame (LSF) stud walls is significant in the design of buildings. In this research, finite element thermal models of both the traditional LSF wall panels with cavity insulation and the new LSF composite wall panels were developed to simulate their thermal behaviour under standard and real design fire conditions. Suitable thermal properties were proposed for plasterboards and insulations based on laboratory tests and literature review. The developed models were then validated by comparing their results with available fire test results. This paper presents the details of the developed finite element models of load bearing LSF wall panels and the thermal analysis results. It shows that finite element models can be used to simulate the thermal behaviour of load bearing LSF walls with varying configurations of insulations and plasterboards. Failure times of load bearing LSF walls were also predicted based on the results from finite element thermal analyses.

Behaviour of LiteSteel beams subject to combined shear and bending actions

This paper presents the details of a numerical study of a cold-formed steel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) subject to combined shear and bending actions. The LSB sections are produced by a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and electric resistance welding. They have a unique shape of a channel beam with two rectangular hollow flanges. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the strength of LSB sections under combined shear and bending actions. Hence a numerical study was undertaken to investigate the behaviour and strength of LSBs subject to combined shear and bending actions. In this research, finite element models of LSBs were developed to simulate the combined shear and bending behaviour and strength of LSBs. They were then validated by comparing their results with test results and used in a parametric study. Both experimental and finite element analysis results showed that the current design equations are not suitable for combined shear and bending capacities of LSBs. Hence improved design equations are proposed for the capacities of LSBs subject to combined shear and bending actions.

Shear strength of hollow flange channel beams with stiffened web openings

This LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel hollow flange channel section produced using a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and dual electric resistance welding. The LSBs are commonly used as floor joists and bearers with web openings in buildings. Their shear strengths are considerably reduced when web openings are included for the purpose of locating building services. Shear tests of LSBs with web openings have shown that there is up to 60% reduction in the shear capacity. Hence there is a need to improve the shear capacity of LSBs with web openings. A cost effective way to eliminate the shear capacity reduction is to stiffen the web openings using suitable stiffeners. Hence numerical studies were undertaken to investigate the shear capacity of LSBs with stiffened web openings. In this research, finite element models of LSBs with stiffened web openings in shear were developed to simulate the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs. Various stiffening methods using plate and LSB stiffeners attached to LSBs using both welding and screw-fastening were attempted. The developed models were then validated by comparing their results with experimental results and used in further studies. Both finite element and experimental results showed that the stiffening arrangements recommended by past research for cold-formed steel channel beams are not adequate to restore the shear strengths of LSBs with web openings. Therefore new stiffener arrangements were proposed for LSBs with web openings. This paper presents the details of this research project using numerical studies and the results.

Stability and convergence of implicit numerical methods for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection-dispersion models (FADM) is investigated. These models include five fractional advection-dispersion models: the immobile, mobile/immobile time FADM with a temporal fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with skewness, both the time and space FADM and the time fractional advection-diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. They describe nonlocal dependence on either time or space, or both, to explain the development of anomalous dispersion. These equations can be used to simulate regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails, for example, the solute transport in watershed catchments and rivers. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADM. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analyzed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretical analysis.

A safety adapted car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers exhibit safe behaviors. All the microscopic traffic simulation models include a car following model. This paper highlights the limitations of the Gipps car following model ability to emulate driver behavior for safety study purposes. A safety adapted car following model based on the Gipps car following model is proposed to simulate unsafe vehicle movements, with safety indicators below critical thresholds. The modifications are based on the observations of driver behavior in real data and also psychophysical notions. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time To Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against them. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model can predict the safety metrics better than the generic Gipps model. The outcome of this paper can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic safety using microscopic simulation.

Thermal performance of non-load bearing LSF walls using numerical studies

Fire safety of light gauge cold-formed steel frame (LSF) wall systems is significant to the build-ing design. Gypsum plasterboard is widely used as a fire safety material in the building industry. It contains gypsum (CaSO4.2H2O), Calcium Carbonate (CaCO3) and most importantly free and chemically bound water in its crystal structure. The dehydration of the gypsum and the decomposition of Calcium Carbonate absorb heat, which gives the gypsum plasterboard fire resistant qualities. Recently a new composite panel system was developed, where a thin insulation layer was used externally between two plasterboards to improve the fire performance of LSF walls. In this research, finite element thermal models of both the traditional LSF wall panels with cavity insulation and the new LSF composite wall panels were developed to simulate their thermal behaviour under standard and realistic design fire conditions. Suitable thermal properties of gypsum plaster-board, insulation materials and steel were used. The developed models were then validated by comparing their results with fire test results. This paper presents the details of the developed finite element models of non-load bearing LSF wall panels and the thermal analysis results. It has shown that finite element models can be used to simulate the thermal behaviour of LSF walls with varying configurations of insulations and plasterboards. The results show that the use of cavity insulation was detrimental to the fire rating of LSF walls while the use of external insulation offered superior thermal protection. Effects of real fire conditions are also presented.

Polycaprolactone-based scaffold plus recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein (rhBMP-2) in an ovine model of anterior spinal fusion

Synthetic scaffolds combined with growth factors have the potential to replace allograft or autograft as a graft material for spinal interbody fusion. Such tissue engineering approaches may be useful in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) surgery, however there are no studies to date examining the use of such biodegradable implants in combination with biologics in a thoracic spine model. This in vivo study examines the use of biodegradable polycaprolactone (PCL) based scaffolds with rhBMP-2 as a bone graft substitute in a sheep thoracic fusion model, where an anterior approach is used to simulate minimally invasive surgical deformity correction in the setting of AIS.

Numerical studies of gypsum plasterboard panels under standard fire conditions

Gypsum plasterboards are commonly used as a fire safety material in the building industry. Many research studies have been undertaken to investigate the thermal behaviour of plasterboards under standard fire conditions. However, there are many discrepancies in relation to the basic thermal properties of plasterboards while simple equations are not available to predict the ambient surface time–temperature profiles of gypsum plasterboard panels that can be used in simulating the behaviour and strength of steel studs or joists in load bearing LSF wall and floor systems. In this research, suitable thermal properties of plasterboards were proposed based on a series of tests and available results from past research. Finite element models of gypsum plasterboard panels were then developed to simulate their thermal behaviour under standard fire conditions. The accuracy of the proposed thermal properties and the finite element models was validated by comparing the numerical results with available fire test results of plasterboard panels. This paper presents the details of the finite element models of plasterboard panels, the thermal analysis results from finite element analyses under standard fire conditions and their comparisons with experimental results

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.