Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.

Exploring the potential role of allostatic load biomarkers in risk assessment of patients presenting with depressive symptoms

Background: Depression is a major health problem worldwide and the majority of patients presenting with depressive symptoms are managed in primary care. Current approaches for assessing depressive symptoms in primary care are not accurate in predicting future clinical outcomes, which may potentially lead to over or under treatment. The Allostatic Load (AL) theory suggests that by measuring multi-system biomarker levels as a proxy of measuring multi-system physiological dysregulation, it is possible to identify individuals at risk of having adverse health outcomes at a prodromal stage. Allostatic Index (AI) score, calculated by applying statistical formulations to different multi-system biomarkers, have been associated with depressive symptoms. Aims and Objectives: To test the hypothesis, that a combination of allostatic load (AL) biomarkers will form a predictive algorithm in defining clinically meaningful outcomes in a population of patients presenting with depressive symptoms. The key objectives were: 1. To explore the relationship between various allostatic load biomarkers and prevalence of depressive symptoms in patients, especially in patients diagnosed with three common cardiometabolic diseases (Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Diabetes and Stroke). 2 To explore whether allostatic load biomarkers predict clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially in patients with three common cardiometabolic diseases (CHD, Diabetes and Stroke). 3 To develop a predictive tool to identify individuals with depressive symptoms at highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Methods: Datasets used: ‘DepChron’ was a dataset of 35,537 patients with existing cardiometabolic disease collected as a part of routine clinical practice. ‘Psobid’ was a research data source containing health related information from 666 participants recruited from the general population. The clinical outcomes for 3 both datasets were studied using electronic data linkage to hospital and mortality health records, undertaken by Information Services Division, Scotland. Cross-sectional associations between allostatic load biomarkers calculated at baseline, with clinical severity of depression assessed by a symptom score, were assessed using logistic and linear regression models in both datasets. Cox’s proportional hazards survival analysis models were used to assess the relationship of allostatic load biomarkers at baseline and the risk of adverse physical health outcomes at follow-up, in patients with depressive symptoms. The possibility of interaction between depressive symptoms and allostatic load biomarkers in risk prediction of adverse clinical outcomes was studied using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. Finally, the value of constructing a risk scoring scale using patient demographics and allostatic load biomarkers for predicting adverse outcomes in depressed patients was investigated using clinical risk prediction modelling and Area Under Curve (AUC) statistics. Key Results: Literature Review Findings. The literature review showed that twelve blood based peripheral biomarkers were statistically significant in predicting six different clinical outcomes in participants with depressive symptoms. Outcomes related to both mental health (depressive symptoms) and physical health were statistically associated with pre-treatment levels of peripheral biomarkers; however only two studies investigated outcomes related to physical health. Cross-sectional Analysis Findings: In DepChron, dysregulation of individual allostatic biomarkers (mainly cardiometabolic) were found to have a non-linear association with increased probability of co-morbid depressive symptoms (as assessed by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score HADS-D≥8). A composite AI score constructed using five biomarkers did not lead to any improvement in the observed strength of the association. In Psobid, BMI was found to have a significant cross-sectional association with the probability of depressive symptoms (assessed by General Health Questionnaire GHQ-28≥5). BMI, triglycerides, highly sensitive C - reactive 4 protein (CRP) and High Density Lipoprotein-HDL cholesterol were found to have a significant cross-sectional relationship with the continuous measure of GHQ-28. A composite AI score constructed using 12 biomarkers did not show a significant association with depressive symptoms among Psobid participants. Longitudinal Analysis Findings: In DepChron, three clinical outcomes were studied over four years: all-cause death, all-cause hospital admissions and composite major adverse cardiovascular outcome-MACE (cardiovascular death or admission due to MI/stroke/HF). Presence of depressive symptoms and composite AI score calculated using mainly peripheral cardiometabolic biomarkers was found to have a significant association with all three clinical outcomes over the following four years in DepChron patients. There was no evidence of an interaction between AI score and presence of depressive symptoms in risk prediction of any of the three clinical outcomes. There was a statistically significant interaction noted between SBP and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular outcome, and also between HbA1c and depressive symptoms in risk prediction of all-cause mortality for patients with diabetes. In Psobid, depressive symptoms (assessed by GHQ-28≥5) did not have a statistically significant association with any of the four outcomes under study at seven years: all cause death, all cause hospital admission, MACE and incidence of new cancer. A composite AI score at baseline had a significant association with the risk of MACE at seven years, after adjusting for confounders. A continuous measure of IL-6 observed at baseline had a significant association with the risk of three clinical outcomes- all-cause mortality, all-cause hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular event. Raised total cholesterol at baseline was associated with lower risk of all-cause death at seven years while raised waist hip ratio- WHR at baseline was associated with higher risk of MACE at seven years among Psobid participants. There was no significant interaction between depressive symptoms and peripheral biomarkers (individual or combined) in risk prediction of any of the four clinical outcomes under consideration. Risk Scoring System Development: In the DepChron cohort, a scoring system was constructed based on eight baseline demographic and clinical variables to predict the risk of MACE over four years. The AUC value for the risk scoring system was modest at 56.7% (95% CI 55.6 to 57.5%). In Psobid, it was not possible to perform this analysis due to the low event rate observed for the clinical outcomes. Conclusion: Individual peripheral biomarkers were found to have a cross-sectional association with depressive symptoms both in patients with cardiometabolic disease and middle-aged participants recruited from the general population. AI score calculated with different statistical formulations was of no greater benefit in predicting concurrent depressive symptoms or clinical outcomes at follow-up, over and above its individual constituent biomarkers, in either patient cohort. SBP had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with cardiometabolic disease; HbA1c had a significant interaction with depressive symptoms in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes. Peripheral biomarkers may have a role in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms, especially for those with existing cardiometabolic disease, and this merits further investigation.

Prevalence, severity and risk factors of allergic disorders among people in south India.

Background: Allergic disorders are not usually life-threatening conditions but they impair the person’s ability to function. It thus adversely affects the psychological wellbeing and quality of life. These implications of allergic disorders can be minimized if strategies are planned for its early identification followed by appropriate interventions. Objectives: To find out the prevalence and risk factors of allergic disorders. Methods: Data was collected by house to house survey among participants aged 18 years and above using a standardized allergy assessment questionnaire. Results: Mean age of the 400 participants was 42.8±14.7 years. Majority 105(26.2%) were in the age group 36 to 45 years. Majority were females 287(71.7%) and were house wives 217(54.2%). Majority of participants were of upper socio economic class 98(44.7%) out of 219 and majority were from urban areas 326(81.5%). The prevalence of allergy among participants was found to be 115(28.7%). Out of these 115, 37(32.2%) had possibility of allergy, 60(52.2%) had probability of allergy and the rest 18(15.6%) had very high likelihood for allergy. People residing in semi urban areas had increased risk of allergy (p=0.024) than those from urban areas. The prevalence of asthma was 30(7.5%) and skin allergy was 23(5.8%). Most common precipitating factors for allergy were dust exposure 103(25.8%) followed by seasonal changes 71(17.8%). Family history of allergy was associated with allergy among participants (p<0.001). Usage of firewood was associated with symptoms of respiratory allergy among participants (p=0.01). Conclusion: The study revealed some important determinants of allergic disorders which have important implications to frame appropriate prevention and health educational strategies.

AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF USER ONLINE SECURITY BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE FROM A UNIVERSITY

The ever-increasing number and severity of cybersecurity breaches makes it vital to understand the factors that make organizations vulnerable. Since humans are considered the weakest link in the cybersecurity chain of an organization, this study evaluates users’ individual differences (demographic factors, risk-taking preferences, decision-making styles and personality traits) to understand online security behavior. This thesis studies four different yet tightly related online security behaviors that influence organizational cybersecurity: device securement, password generation, proactive awareness and updating. A survey (N=369) of students, faculty and staff in a large mid-Atlantic U.S. public university identifies individual characteristics that relate to online security behavior and characterizes the higher-risk individuals that pose threats to the university’s cybersecurity. Based on these findings and insights from interviews with phishing victims, the study concludes with recommendations to help similat organizations increase end-user cybersecurity compliance and mitigate the risks caused by humans in the organizational cybersecurity chain.

Assessment of Risk Factors and Prognosis in Asphyxiated Infants

Background: Asphyxia is considered an important cause of morbidity and mortality in neonates. This condition can affect many vital organs including the central nervous system and may eventually lead to death or developmental disorders. Objectives: Considering the high prevalence of asphyxia and its adverse consequences, the present study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for birth asphyxia and assess their correlation with prognosis in asphyxiated infants. Patients and Methods: This two-year follow-up cohort study was conducted on 260 infants (110 asphyxiated infants and 150 healthy neonates) at Mashhad Ghaem Hospital during 2007 - 2014. Data collection tools consisted of a researcher-designed questionnaire including maternal and neonatal information and clinical/laboratory test results. The subjects were followed-up, using Denver II test for 6, 12, 18, and 24 months (after discharge). For data analysis, t-test was performed, using SPSS version 16.5. P value ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Of 260 neonates, 199 (76.5%) and 61 (23.5%) cases presented with normal neonatal outcomes and with abnormal neonatal outcomes (developmental delay), respectively. Variables such as the severity of asphyxia (P = 0.000), five-minute Apgar score (P = 0.015), need for ventilation (P = 0.000), and severity of acidosis at birth (P = 0.001) were the major prognostic factors in infants with asphyxia. Additionally, prognosis was significantly poorer in boys and infants with dystocia history (P = 0.000). Conclusions: Prevalence of risk factors for developmental delay including the severity of asphyxia need for mechanical ventilation, and severity of acidosis at birth, dystocia, and Apgar score were lower in surviving infants; therefore, controlling these risk factors may reduce asphyxia-associated complications.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.

New perspectives on A.I. in sentencing. Human decision-making between risk assessment tools and protection of humans rights.

The aim of this thesis is to investigate a field that until a few years ago was foreign to and distant from the penal system. The purpose of this undertaking is to account for the role that technology could plays in the Italian Criminal Law system. More specifically, this thesis attempts to scrutinize a very intricate phase of adjudication. After deciding on the type of an individual's liability, a judge must decide on the severity of the penalty. This type of decision implies a prognostic assessment that looks to the future. It is precisely in this field and in prognostic assessments that, as has already been anticipated in the United, instruments and processes are inserted in the pre-trial but also in the decision-making phase. In this contribution, we attempt to describe the current state of this field, trying, as a matter of method, to select the most relevant or most used tools. Using comparative and qualitative methods, the uses of some of these instruments in the supranational legal system are analyzed. Focusing attention on the Italian system, an attempt was made to investigate the nature of the element of an individual's ‘social dangerousness’ (pericolosità sociale) and capacity to commit offences, types of assessments that are fundamental in our system because they are part of various types of decisions, including the choice of the best sanctioning treatment. It was decided to turn our attention to this latter field because it is believed that the judge does not always have the time, the means and the ability to assess all the elements of a subject and identify the best 'individualizing' treatment in order to fully realize the function of Article 27, paragraph 3 of the Constitution.

Assessment Of The Fixation Of Mandibular Symphysis Fractures Using Conical Cannulated Screws: Mechanical And Photoelastic Tests.

The aim of this study was to use mechanical and photoelastic tests to compare the performance of cannulated screws with other fixation methods in mandibular symphysis fractures. Ten polyurethane mandibles were allocated to each group and fixed as follows: group PRP, 2 perpendicular miniplates; group PLL, 1 miniplate and 1 plate, parallel; and group CS, 2 cannulated screws. Vertical linear loading tests were performed. The differences between mean values were analyzed with the Tukey test. The photoelastic test was carried out using a polariscope. The results revealed differences between the CS and PRP groups at 1, 3, 5, and 10 millimeters of displacement. The photoelastic test confirmed higher stress concentration in all groups close to the mandibular base, whereas the CS group showed it throughout the region assessed. Conical cannulated screws performed well in mechanical and photoelastic tests.

Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Assessment Of Interstitial Myocardial Fibrosis And Cardiomyocyte Hypertrophy In Hypertensive Mice Treated With Spironolactone.

Nearly 50% of patients with heart failure (HF) have preserved LV ejection fraction, with interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy as early manifestations of pressure overload. However, methods to assess both tissue characteristics dynamically and noninvasively with therapy are lacking. We measured the effects of mineralocorticoid receptor blockade on tissue phenotypes in LV pressure overload using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). Mice were randomized to l-nitro-ω-methyl ester (l-NAME, 3 mg/mL in water; n=22), or l-NAME with spironolactone (50 mg/kg/day in subcutaneous pellets; n=21). Myocardial extracellular volume (ECV; marker of diffuse interstitial fibrosis) and the intracellular lifetime of water (τic; marker of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy) were determined by CMR T1 imaging at baseline and after 7 weeks of therapy alongside histological assessments. Administration of l-NAME induced hypertensive heart disease in mice, with increases in mean arterial pressure, LV mass, ECV, and τic compared with placebo-treated controls, while LV ejection fraction was preserved (>50%). In comparison, animals receiving both spironolactone and l-NAME (l-NAME+S) showed less concentric remodeling, and a lower myocardial ECV and τic, indicating decreased interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy (ECV: 0.43 ± 0.09 for l-NAME versus 0.25 ± 0.03 for l-NAME+S, P<0.001; τic: 0.42 ± 0.11 for l-NAME groups versus 0.12 ± 0.05 for l-NAME+S group). Mice treated with a combination of l-NAME and spironolactone were similar to placebo-treated controls at 7 weeks. Spironolactone attenuates interstitial fibrosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy in hypertensive heart disease. CMR can phenotype myocardial tissue remodeling in pressure-overload, furthering our understanding of HF progression.

The Inadequacy Of The Y-axis Of Growth (sngn) For The Vertical Pattern Assessment In Patients With Sagittal Discrepancies.

The aim of this cephalometric study was to evaluate the influence of the sagittal skeletal pattern on the 'Y-axis of growth' measurement in patients with different malocclusions. Lateral head films from 59 patients (mean age 16y 7m, ranging from 11 to 25 years) were selected after a subjective analysis of 1630 cases. Sample was grouped as follows: Group 1 - class I facial pattern; group 2 - class II facial pattern; and Group 3 - class III facial pattern. Two angular measurements, SNGoGn and SNGn, were taken in order to determine skeletal vertical facial pattern. A logistic regression with errors distributed according to a binomial distribution was used to test the influence of the sagittal relationship (Class I, II, III facial patterns) on vertical diagnostic measurement congruence (SNGoGn and SNGn). RESULTS show that the probability of congruence between the patterns SNGn and SNGoGn was relatively high (70%) for group 1, but for groups II (46%) and III (37%) this congruence was relatively low. The use of SNGn appears to be inappropriate to determine the vertical facial skeletal pattern of patients, due to Gn point shifting throughout sagittal discrepancies. Clinical Significance: Facial pattern determined by SNGn must be considered carefully, especially when severe sagittal discrepancies are present.

Assessment Of Robustness On Analysis Using Headspace Solid-phase Microextraction And Comprehensive Two-dimensional Gas Chromatography Through Experimental Designs.

Plackett-Burman experimental design was applied for the robustness assessment of GC×GC-qMS (Comprehensive Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography with Fast Quadrupolar Mass Spectrometric Detection) in quantitative and qualitative analysis of volatiles compounds from chocolate samples isolated by headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME). The influence of small changes around the nominal level of six factors deemed as important on peak areas (carrier gas flow rate, modulation period, temperature of ionic source, MS photomultiplier power, injector temperature and interface temperature) and of four factors considered as potentially influential on spectral quality (minimum and maximum limits of the scanned mass ranges, ions source temperature and photomultiplier power). The analytes selected for the study were 2,3,5-trimethylpyrazine, 2-octanone, octanal, 2-pentyl-furan, 2,3,5,6-tetramethylpyrazine, and 2-nonanone e nonanal. The factors pointed out as important on the robustness of the system were photomultiplier power for quantitative analysis and lower limit of mass scanning range for qualitative analysis.

Bacterial Diversity Assessment In Soil Of An Active Brazilian Copper Mine Using High-throughput Sequencing Of 16s Rdna Amplicons.

Mining activities pose severe environmental risks worldwide, generating extreme pH conditions and high concentrations of heavy metals, which can have major impacts on the survival of organisms. In this work, pyrosequencing of the V3 region of the 16S rDNA was used to analyze the bacterial communities in soil samples from a Brazilian copper mine. For the analysis, soil samples were collected from the slopes (geotechnical structures) and the surrounding drainage of the Sossego mine (comprising the Sossego and Sequeirinho deposits). The results revealed complex bacterial diversity, and there was no influence of deposit geographic location on the composition of the communities. However, the environment type played an important role in bacterial community divergence; the composition and frequency of OTUs in the slope samples were different from those of the surrounding drainage samples, and Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi, Firmicutes, and Gammaproteobacteria were responsible for the observed difference. Chemical analysis indicated that both types of sample presented a high metal content, while the amounts of organic matter and water were higher in the surrounding drainage samples. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (N-MDS) analysis identified organic matter and water as important distinguishing factors between the bacterial communities from the two types of mine environment. Although habitat-specific OTUs were found in both environments, they were more abundant in the surrounding drainage samples (around 50 %), and contributed to the higher bacterial diversity found in this habitat. The slope samples were dominated by a smaller number of phyla, especially Firmicutes. The bacterial communities from the slope and surrounding drainage samples were different in structure and composition, and the organic matter and water present in these environments contributed to the observed differences.

Correlation Between Cephalometric Data And Severity Of Sleep Apnea.

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome has a high prevalence among adults. Cephalometric variables can be a valuable method for evaluating patients with this syndrome. To correlate cephalometric data with the apnea-hypopnea sleep index. We performed a retrospective and cross-sectional study that analyzed the cephalometric data of patients followed in the Sleep Disorders Outpatient Clinic of the Discipline of Otorhinolaryngology of a university hospital, from June 2007 to May 2012. Ninety-six patients were included, 45 men, and 51 women, with a mean age of 50.3 years. A total of 11 patients had snoring, 20 had mild apnea, 26 had moderate apnea, and 39 had severe apnea. The distance from the hyoid bone to the mandibular plane was the only variable that showed a statistically significant correlation with the apnea-hypopnea index. Cephalometric variables are useful tools for the understanding of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. The distance from the hyoid bone to the mandibular plane showed a statistically significant correlation with the apnea-hypopnea index.

Spinal Cord Atrophy Correlates With Disease Duration And Severity In Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

Our objective was to investigate spinal cord (SC) atrophy in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients, and to determine whether it correlates with clinical parameters. Forty-three patients with ALS (25 males) and 43 age- and gender-matched healthy controls underwent MRI on a 3T scanner. We used T1-weighted 3D images covering the whole brain and the cervical SC to estimate cervical SC area and eccentricity at C2/C3 level using validated software (SpineSeg). Disease severity was quantified with the ALSFRS-R and ALS Severity scores. SC areas of patients and controls were compared with a Mann-Whitney test. We used linear regression to investigate association between SC area and clinical parameters. Results showed that mean age of patients and disease duration were 53.1 ± 12.2 years and 34.0 ± 29.8 months, respectively. The two groups were significantly different regarding SC areas (67.8 ± 6.8 mm² vs. 59.5 ± 8.4 mm², p < 0.001). Eccentricity values were similar in both groups (p = 0.394). SC areas correlated with disease duration (r = - 0.585, p < 0.001), ALSFRS-R score (r = 0.309, p = 0.044) and ALS Severity scale (r = 0.347, p = 0.022). In conclusion, patients with ALS have SC atrophy, but no flattening. In addition, SC areas correlated with disease duration and functional status. These data suggest that quantitative MRI of the SC may be a useful biomarker in the disease.

[the Modified Us7 Score In The Assessment Of Synovitis In Early Rheumatoid Arthritis].

To evaluate the modified US7 score (MUS7 score SYN) in the assessment of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA). In addition, dorsal and palmar recesses of the wrists as well as of small joints of the hands and feet were examined for the presence of synovitis by means of a global assessment of joints. The study sample comprised 32 patients treated for arthritis, with an average disease duration of 13 months. An ultrasound machine with high frequency transducer was used. Hands were also X-rayed and analysed by Larsen score. Out of the 832 examined joints, synovitis was detected in 173 (20,79%), tenosynovitis in 22 (4,91%), and erosions in 3 (1,56%). Synovitis was predominantly detected in the dorsal recess (73,38%) of MCP and PIP joints, when compared with palmar recess (26%). The presence of synovitis in the joints evaluated correlated with clinical (HAQ-DI, DAS28), laboratory (ACPA, RF, CRP), and ultrasound results (r = 0,37 to r = 0,42; p = 0,04 to p = 0,003). We found correlation of the MUS7 score SYN of the gray scale US or of the power Doppler US with DAS28 (PCR) values (r = 0,38; p = 0,0332), and with CRP results (r = 0,39; p = 0,0280), respectively. The dorsal recess, the wrist, and small joints can be considered as important sites to detect synovitis by the MUS7 score SYN in patients with ERA.