Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the intrinsic capacity for increase of Australian flying-foxes (Pteropus spp., Megachiroptera)

In the reproductive biology of organisms, a continuum exists from "highly reproductive species" at one end to "survivor species" at the other end. Among other factors, the position of a species along this continuum affects its sensitivity to human exploitation and its vulnerability to extinction. Flying foxes are long-lived, seasonal breeders, with a rigid, well-defined breeding season that is largely or wholly genetically determined. Unlike opportunistic, highly reproductive species, such as rabbits or mice, female flying foxes are unable to produce viable young before their second or third year of life, and are then capable of producing just one young per year. Such a breeding strategy will be successful only if flying-foxes are long-lived and suffer naturally low mortality rates. In this paper, we assess the vulnerability of flying foxes to extinction, using basic parameters of reproduction observed in the wild, and in captive breeding colonies of P. poliocephalus, P. alecto and P. scapulatus, and survival rates that are likely to apply to Australian conditions. Our models show explicitly that flying-fox populations have a very low capacity for increase, even under the most ideal conditions. The implications of our models are discussed in reference to the long-term management and conservation needs of Australian flying foxes. We conclude that current death-rates of flying-foxes in NSW and Queensland fruit orchards are putting state populations at serious risk.

A quantitative state and transition model for the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland

Concerns of reduced productivity and land degradation in the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland were addressed through a range monitoring program to interpret condition and trend. Botanical and eclaphic parameters were recorded along piosphere and grazing gradients, and across fenceline impact areas, to maximise changes resulting from grazing. The Degradation Gradient Method was used in conjunction with State and Transition Models to develop models of rangeland dynamics and condition. States were found to be ordered along a degradation gradient, indicator species developed according to rainfall trends and transitions determined from field data and available literature. Astrebla spp. abundance declined with declining range condition and increasing grazing pressure, while annual grasses and forbs increased in dominance under poor range condition. Soil erosion increased and litter decreased with decreasing range condition. An approach to quantitatively define states within a variable rainfall environment based upon a time-series ordination analysis is described. The derived model could provide the interpretive framework necessary to integrate on-ground monitoring, remote sensing and geographic information systems to trace states and transitions at the paddock scale. However, further work is needed to determine the full catalogue of states and transitions and to refine the model for application at the paddock scale.

Depletion of benthic invertebrates by bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica in a subtropical estuary

This study (1) investigated functional (capture rate, foraging success) and numerical (density) responses of bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica to an experimental decrease in densities of their prey, and (2) estimated seasonal depletion of the stock of their main prey, the mictyrid crab Mictyris longicarpus, in a subtropical estuary. It was predicted that if intake rates of the godwits are in the vicinity of the gradient section of a functional response curve, i.e. are directly determined by prey density, they will respond rapidly to experimental reduction in the density of their prey. Bar-tailed godwits did respond rapidly, both functionally and numerically, to a decrease in the density of M longicarpus, indicating that their intake rate was limited by food availability. The estimated seasonal depletion of the stocks of Mictyris by the godwits was 88 % of the initial standing stock. Despite the virtual disappearance of Mictyris from sediment samples through the course of a non-breeding season, local densities of godwits did not change between October and March, implying that adequate rates of intake could be maintained throughout their residence period.

Species richness in agamid lizards: chance, body size, sexual selection or ecology?

Why does species richness vary so greatly across lineages? Traditionally, variation in species richness has been attributed to deterministic processes, although it is equally plausible that it may result from purely stochastic processes. We show that, based on the best available phylogenetic hypothesis, the pattern of cladogenesis among agamid lizards is not consistent with a random model, with some lineages having more species, and others fewer species, than expected by chance. We then use phylogenetic comparative methods to test six types of deterministic explanation for variation in species richness: body size, life history, sexual selection, ecological generalism, range size and latitude. Of eight variables we tested, only sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism predicted species richness. Increases in species richness are associated with increases in sexual dichromatism but reductions in sexual size dimorphism. Consistent with recent comparative studies, we find no evidence that species richness is associated with small body size or high fecundity. Equally, we find no evidence that species richness covaries with ecological generalism, latitude or range size.

Testosterone is correlated with courtship but not aggression in the tropical buff-banded rail, Gallirallus philippensis

Past studies into the roles of testosterone in birds have focused on species that occur in temperate regions. In such species, plasma testosterone levels are high during the establishment of territories in the spring and are associated with increased aggression. In contrast to most temperate species, tropical birds frequently defend territories year-round, during which time territoriality often occurs in a nonsexual context. The few studies that have been carried out on tropical birds show lower levels of circulating testosterone than occur in their temperate counterparts. In some year-round territorial tropical species, testosterone and aggression are dissociated, while in other species testosterone still plays a role in regulating aggression. This study examined the relationship between aggression and plasma testosterone levels in a year-round territorial, subtropical population of the buff-banded rail with characteristics typical of tropical species. Peak testosterone levels were substantially lower than those found in temperate species. Males displayed a seasonal peak in plasma testosterone level when their partners were most likely to be fertile. At other times, testosterone levels were mostly undetectable, despite year-round territoriality. We found that T levels increased with courtship behavior but showed no relationship with aggression, supporting the hypothesis that dissociation between testosterone and territoriality may be widespread among tropical avian taxa. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

The Galilean turn in population ecology

The standard mathematical models in population ecology assume that a population's growth rate is a function of its environment. In this paper we investigate an alternative proposal according to which the rate of change of the growth rate is a function of the environment and of environmental change. We focus on the philosophical issues involved in such a fundamental shift in theoretical assumptions, as well as on the explanations the two theories offer for some of the key data such as cyclic populations. We also discuss the relationship between this move in population ecology and a similar move from first-order to second-order differential equations championed by Galileo and Newton in celestial mechanics.

Visual Biology of Hawaiian Coral Reef Fishes. III. Environmental Light and an Integrated Approach to the Ecology of Reef Fish Vision

In the previous two papers in this three-part series, we have examined visual pigments, ocular media transmission, and colors of the coral reef fish of Hawaii. This paper first details aspects of the light field and background colors at the microhabitat level on Hawaiian reefs and does so from the perspective and scale of fish living on the reef. Second, information from all three papers is combined in an attempt to examine trends in the visual ecology of reef inhabitants. Our goal is to begin to see fish the way they appear to other fish. Observations resulting from the combination of results in all three papers include the following. Yellow and blue colors on their own are strikingly well matched to backgrounds on the reef such as coral and bodies of horizontally viewed water. These colors, therefore, depending on context, may be important in camouflage as well as conspicuousness. The spectral characteristics of fish colors are correlated to the known spectral sensitivities in reef fish single cones and are tuned for maximum signal reliability when viewed against known backgrounds. The optimal positions of spectral sensitivity in a modeled dichromatic visual system are generally close to the sensitivities known for reef fish. Models also predict that both UV-sensitive and red-sensitive cone types are advantageous for a variety of tasks. UV-sensitive cones are known in some reef fish, red-sensitive cones have yet to be found. Labroid colors, which appear green or blue to us, may he matched to the far-red component of chlorophyll reflectance for camouflage. Red cave/hole dwelling reef fish are relatively poorly matched to the background they are often viewed against but this may be visually irrelevant. The model predicts that the task of distinguishing green algae from coral is optimized with a relatively long wavelength visual pigment pair. Herbivorous grazers whose visual pigments are known possess the longest sensitivities so far found. Labroid complex colors are highly contrasting complementary colors close up but combine, because of the spatial addition, which results from low visual resolution, at distance, to match background water colors remarkably well. Therefore, they are effective for simultaneous communication and camouflage.

Laws of nature and laws of ecology

We address the question of whether there are laws in ecology. Although there has been a great deal of recent interest in this topic, much of the relevant debate has been conducted under some common misconceptions about what laws of nature are. Once these misconceptions are cleared up, the case for ecology having laws is much stronger. Indeed, we suggest that the case for laws in ecology is no better or worse than the case for laws in physics.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Seasonal variation of total particulate matter and children respiratory diseases at Lisbon primary schools using passive methods

In this work, 14 primary schools of Lisbon city, Portugal, followed a questionnaire of the ISAAC - International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood Program, in 2009/2010. The questionnaire contained questions to identify children with respiratory diseases (wheeze, asthma and rhinitis). Total particulate matter (TPM) was passively collected inside two classrooms of each of 14 primary schools. Two types of filter matrices were used to collect TPM: Millipore (IsoporeTM) polycarbonate and quartz. Three campaigns were selected for the measurement of TPM: Spring, Autumn and Winter. The highest difference between the two types of filters is that the mass of collected particles was higher in quartz filters than in polycarbonate filters, even if their correlation is excellent. The highest TPM depositions occurred between October 2009 and March 2010, when related with rhinitis proportion. Rhinitis was found to be related to TPM when the data were grouped seasonally and averaged for all the schools. For the data of 2006/2007, the seasonal variation was found to be related to outdoor particle deposition (below 10 μm).

Occurrence of suicide and seasonal variation

OBJECTIVE: To review the estimated suicide rates for the Region Metropolitan, the main socio-political center in Chile, for the period 1979-1994, and to determine whether they follow a seasonal pattern. METHOD: Data available for the period 1979-94 at the Forensic Services in Chile was analyzed using ANOVA. RESULTS: It was register 5.386 suicides. While the "warm" months (October, November, December & January) concentrated 39.0% of cases, the so called "cold" months reported 28,7%. This contrast is made even clearer by the month-to-month analysis, showing the highest suicide rate in December (10.9%) against the lowest rate in June (7.0%). Further statistical analysis revealed these differences to be significant. CONCLUSION: The study shows that in Chile, representing as it does the Southern Hemisphere, the suicide rates tend to present a seasonal variation as has elsewhere been determined for in the North Hemisphere.

Comment on R. Woodroffe et al. Perspective in Ecology "To Fence or Not to Fence" (4 April 2014, Science, 344: 46-48)

Fences must be used with care in biodiversity conservation to avoid unintended consequences.

Invasions changing marine biodiversity. Comment on J.M. Pandolfi & C.E. Lovelock Perspective in Ecology "Novelty Trumps Loss in Global Biodiversity" (18 April, 344, 266).

Although global biodiversity is declining, local ecosystems are not systematically losing diversity, but rather experiencing rapid turnover in species.