Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Enhanced aerosol loading over Arabian Sea during the pre-monsoon season: Natural or anthropogenic?

[1] Recent experiments conducted over the oceanic regions adjacent to the Indian sub continent have revealed the presence of anthropogenic aerosol haze during January to March. It has been suggested that the major source of this aerosol is South and Southeast Asia. Here we show from long term, multi-station and ship borne observations that aerosols transported from regions northwest of Indian subcontinent especially Arabian and Saharan regions (mostly natural dust) along with the locally produced sea-salt aerosols by sea-surface winds constitute a more significant source of aerosols during April-May period. The radiative forcing due to Arabian/Saharan aerosols (mostly natural) during April May period is comparable and often exceed (as much as 1.5 times) the forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols during January to March period. The presence of dust load over the Arabian Sea can influence the temperature profile and radiative balance in this region.

Spring Warming of the Eastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from Buoy Data

Observations from moored buoys during spring of 1998-2000 suggest that the warming of the mixed layer (similar to20 m deep) of the north Indian Ocean warm pool is a response to net surface heat flux Q(net) (similar to100 W m(-2)) minus penetrative solar radiation Q(pen) (similar to45 W m(-2)). A residual cooling due to vertical mixing and advection is indirectly estimated to be about 25 W m(-2). The rate of warming due to typical values of Q(net) minus Q(pen) is not very sensitive to the depth of the mixed layer if it lies between 10 m and 30 m.

Modeling Indian Ocean circulation: Bay of Bengal fresh water plume and the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool

The Indian subcontinent divides the north Indian Ocean into two tropical basins, namely the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The Arabian Sea has high salinity whereas the salinity of the Bay of Bengal is much lower due to the contrast in freshwater forcing of the two basins. The freshwater received by the Bay in large amounts during the summer monsoon through river discharge is flushed out annually by ocean circulation. After the withdrawal of the summer monsoon, the Ganga – Brahmaputra river plume flows first along the Indian coast and then around Sri Lanka into the Arabian Sea creating a low salinity pool in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). In the same region, during the pre-monsoon months of February – April, a warm pool, known as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP), which is distinctly warmer than the rest of the Indian Ocean, takes shape. In fact, this is the warmest region in the world oceans during this period. Simulation of the river plume and its movement as well as its implications to thermodynamics has been a challenging problem for models of Indian Ocean. Here we address these issues using an ocean general circulation model – first we show that the model is capable of reproducing fresh plumes in the Bay of Bengal as well as its movement and then we use the model to determine the processes that lead to formation of the ASMWP. Hydrographic observations from the western Bay of Bengal have shown the presence of a fresh plume along the northern part of the Indian coast during summer monsoon. The Indian Ocean model when forced by realistic winds and climatological river discharge reproduces the fresh plume with reasonable accuracy. The fresh plume does not advect along the Indian coast until the end of summer monsoon. The North Bay Monsoon Current, which flows eastward in the northern Bay, separates the low salinity water from the more saline southern parts of the bay and thus plays an important role in the fresh water budget of the Bay of Bengal. The model also reproduces the surge of the fresh-plume along the Indian coast, into the Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Mechanisms that lead to the formation of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool are investigated using several numerical experiments. Contrary to the existing theories, we find that salinity effects are not necessary for the formation of the ASMWP. The orographic effects of the Sahyadris (Western Ghats) and resulting reduction in wind speed leads to the formation of the ASMWP. During November – April, the SEAS behave as a low-wind heatdominated regime where the evolution of sea surface temperature is solely determined by atmospheric forcing. In such regions the evolution of surface layer temperature is not dependent on the characteristics of the subsurface ocean such as the barrier layer and temperature inversion.

Mechanisms of summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

Intraseasonal variations (ISV) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is highest in its northwestern part. An Indian Ocean model forced by QuikSCAT winds and climatological river discharge (QR run) reproduces ISV of SST, albeit with weaker magnitude. Air-sea fluxes, in the presence of a shallow mixed layer, efficiently effect intraseasonal SST fluctuations. Warming during intraseasonal events is smaller (<1°C) for June - July period and larger (1.5° to 2°C) during September, the latter due to a thinner mixed layer. To examine the effect of salinity on ISV, the model was run by artificially increasing the salinity (NORR run) and by decreasing it (MAHA10 run). In NORR, both rainfall and river discharge were switched off and in MAHA10 the discharge by river Mahanadi was increased tenfold. The spatial pattern of ISV as well as its periodicity was similar in QR, NORR and MAHA10. The ISV was stronger in NORR and weaker in MAHA10, compared to QR. In NORR, both intraseasonal warming and cooling were higher than in QR, the former due to reduced air-sea heat loss as the mean SST was lower, and the latter due to enhanced subsurface processes resulting from weaker stratification. In MAHA10, both warming and cooling were lower than in QR, the former due to higher air-sea heat loss owing to higher mean SST, and the latter due to weak subsurface processes resulting from stronger stratification. These model experiments suggest that salinity effects are crucial in determining amplitudes of intraseasonal SST variations in the BoB.

The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers

Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against similar to 0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); similar to 60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and similar to 40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our similar to 100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Characteristics of Arabian Sea mini warm pool and Indian summer monsoon

Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25A degrees C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon.

Relative effect of slope and equilibrium line altitude on the retreat of Himalayan glaciers

It has been observed that a majority of glaciers in the Himalayas have been retreating. In this paper, we show that there are two major factors which control the advance/retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. They are the slope of the glacier and changes in the equilibrium line altitude. While it is well known, that these factors are important, we propose a new way of combining them and use it to predict retreat. The functional form of this model has been derived from numerical simulations using an ice-flow code. The model has been successfully applied to the movement of eight Himalayan glaciers during the past 25 years. It explains why the Gangotri glacier is retreating while Zemu of nearly the same length is stationary, even if they are subject to similar environmental changes. The model has also been applied to a larger set of glaciers in the Parbati basin, for which retreat based on satellite data is available, though over a shorter time period.

Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India.

Variation of Snowline and Mass Balance of Glaciers of Warwan and Bhut Basins of Western Himalaya Using Remote Sensing Technique

Glaciers are natural reservoirs of fresh water in frozen state and sensitive indicators of climate change. Among all the mountainous glaciated regions, glaciers of Himalayas form one of the largest concentrations of ice outside the Polar Regions. Almost all the major rivers of northern India originate from these glaciers and sustain perennial flow. Therefore, in view of the importance and role of the glaciers in sustaining the life on the Earth, monitoring the health of glaciers is necessary. Glacier's health is monitored in two ways (i) by mapping the change in extent of glaciers (ii) by finding variation in the annual mass balance. This paper has been discussed the later approach for monitoring the health of glaciers of Warwan and Bhut basins. Mass balance of glaciers of these two basins was determined based on the extraction of snow line at the end of ablation season. A series of satellite images of AWiFS sensor were analysed for extraction of snowline on the glaciers for the period of 2005, 2006 and 2007. The snow line at the end of ablation season is used to compute accumulation area ratio (AAR = Accumulation area/Glacier area) for each glacier of basins. An approach based on relationship of AAR to specific mass balance (computed in field) for glaciers of Basapa basin was employed in the present study. Mean of specific mass balance of individual glacier for the year 2005, 2006 and 2007 of Warwan basin was found to be -ve 0.19 m, -ve 0.27 m and -ve 0.2 m respectively. It is 0.05 m, -ve 0.11 m and -ve 0.19 m for Bhut basin. The analysis suggests a loss of 4.3 and 0.83 kmA(3) of glacier in the monitoring period of 3 years for Warwan and Bhut basins respectively. The overall results suggest that the glaciers of Warwan basin and Bhut basins have suffered more loss of ice than gain in the monitoring period of 3 years.