Optimization of a sea ice model using basinwide observations of Arctic sea ice thickness, extent, and velocity

A stand-alone sea ice model is tuned and validated using satellite-derived, basinwide observations of sea ice thickness, extent, and velocity from the years 1993 to 2001. This is the first time that basin-scale measurements of sea ice thickness have been used for this purpose. The model is based on the CICE sea ice model code developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, with some minor modifications, and forcing consists of 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (POLES) data. Three parameters are varied in the tuning process: Ca, the air–ice drag coefficient; P*, the ice strength parameter; and α, the broadband albedo of cold bare ice, with the aim being to determine the subset of this three-dimensional parameter space that gives the best simultaneous agreement with observations with this forcing set. It is found that observations of sea ice extent and velocity alone are not sufficient to unambiguously tune the model, and that sea ice thickness measurements are necessary to locate a unique subset of parameter space in which simultaneous agreement is achieved with all three observational datasets.

Aircraft-based observations of air–sea turbulent fluxes around the British Isles

Observations of turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture from low-level aircraft data are presented. Fluxes are calculated using the eddy covariance technique from flight legs typically ∼40 m above the sea surface. Over 400 runs of 2 min (∼12 km) from 26 flights are evaluated. Flight legs are mainly from around the British Isles although a small number are from around Iceland and Norway. Sea-surface temperature (SST) observations from two on-board sensors (the ARIES interferometer and a Heimann radiometer) and a satellite-based analysis (OSTIA) are used to determine an improved SST estimate. Most of the observations are from moderate to strong wind speed conditions, the latter being a regime short of validation data for the bulk flux algorithms that are necessary for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Observations from both statically stable and unstable atmospheric boundary-layer conditions are presented. There is a particular focus on several flights made as part of the DIAMET (Diabatic influence on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms) project. Observed neutral exchange coefficients are in the same range as previous studies, although higher for the momentum coefficient, and are broadly consistent with the COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm, as well as the surface exchange schemes used in the ECMWF and Met Office models. Examining the results as a function of aircraft heading shows higher fluxes and exchange coefficients in the across-wind direction, compared to along-wind (although this comparison is limited by the relatively small number of along-wind legs). A multi-resolution spectral decomposition technique demonstrates a lengthening of spatial scales in along-wind variances in along-wind legs, implying the boundary-layer eddies are elongated in the along-wind direction. The along-wind runs may not be able to adequately capture the full range of turbulent exchange that is occurring because elongation places the largest eddies outside of the run length.

Urban integrated meteorological observations: practice and experience in Shanghai, China

Observations of atmospheric conditions and processes in citiesare fundamental to understanding the interactions between the urban surface and weather/climate, improving the performance of urban weather, air quality and climate models, and providing key information for city end-users (e.g. decision-makers, stakeholders, public). In this paper, Shanghai's urban integrated meteorological observation network (SUIMON) and some examples of intended applications are introduced. Its characteristics include being: multi- purpose (e.g. forecast, research, service), multi-function (high impact weather, city climate, special end-users), multi-scale (e.g. macro/meso-, urban-, neighborhood, street canyon), multi-variable (e.g. thermal, dynamic, chemical, bio-meteorological, ecological), and multi- platform (e.g. radar, wind profiler, ground-based, satellite based, in-situ observation/ sampling). Underlying SUIMON is a data management system to facilitate exchange of data and information. The overall aim of the network is to improve coordination strategies and instruments; to identify data gaps based on science and user driven requirements; and to intelligently combine observations from a variety of platforms by using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the urban atmosphere.

Investigation of discrepancies in satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopia

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimates are used extensively across Africa for operational rainfall monitoring and food security applications; thus, regional evaluations of TAMSAT are essential to ensure its reliability. This study assesses the performance of TAMSAT rainfall estimates, along with the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC), version 2; the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product; and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), against a dense rain gauge network over a mountainous region of Ethiopia. Overall, TAMSAT exhibits good skill in detecting rainy events but underestimates rainfall amount, while ARC underestimates both rainfall amount and rainy event frequency. Meanwhile, TRMM consistently performs best in detecting rainy events and capturing the mean rainfall and seasonal variability, while CMORPH tends to overdetect rainy events. Moreover, the mean difference in daily rainfall between the products and rain gauges shows increasing underestimation with increasing elevation. However, the distribution in satellite–gauge differences demon- strates that although 75% of retrievals underestimate rainfall, up to 25% overestimate rainfall over all eleva- tions. Case studies using high-resolution simulations suggest underestimation in the satellite algorithms is likely due to shallow convection with warm cloud-top temperatures in addition to beam-filling effects in microwave- based retrievals from localized convective cells. The overestimation by IR-based algorithms is attributed to nonraining cirrus with cold cloud-top temperatures. These results stress the importance of understanding re- gional precipitation systems causing uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimates with a view toward using this knowledge to improve rainfall algorithms.

Motion of the dayside polar cap boundary during substorm cycles: I. Observations of pulses in the magnetopause reconnection rate

Using data from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter) VHF radar and DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) spacecraft passes, we study the motion of the dayside open-closed field line boundary during two substorm cycles. The satellite data show that the motions of ion and electron temperature boundaries in EISCAT data, as reported by Moen et al. (2004), are not localised around the radar; rather, they reflect motions of the open-closed field line boundary at all MLT throughout the dayside auroral ionosphere. The boundary is shown to erode equatorward when the IMF points southward, consistent with the effect of magnetopause reconnection. During the substorm expansion and recovery phases, the dayside boundary returns poleward, whether the IMF points northward or southward. However, the poleward retreat was much faster during the substorm for which the IMF had returned to northward than for the substorm for which the IMF remained southward – even though the former substorm is much the weaker of the two. These poleward retreats are consistent with the destruction of open flux at the tail current sheet. Application of a new analysis of the peak ion energies at the equatorward edge of the cleft/cusp/mantle dispersion seen by the DMSP satellites identifies the dayside reconnection merging gap to extend in MLT from about 9.5 to 15.5 h for most of the interval. Analysis of the boundary motion, and of the convection velocities seen near the boundary by EISCAT, allows calculation of the reconnection rate (mapped down to the ionosphere) from the flow component normal to the boundary in its own rest frame. This reconnection rate is not, in general, significantly different from zero before 06:45 UT (MLT<9.5 h) – indicating that the X line footprint expands over the EISCAT field-of-view to earlier MLT only occasionally and briefly. Between 06:45 UT and 12:45UT (9.5

Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the products for decision making is improved by the routine provision of validation reports, for which the 10-day (dekadal) TAMSAT rainfall estimates are compared with independent gauge observations. This paper describes the methodology by which the TAMSAT method has been applied to generate the pan-African rainfall monitoring products. It is demonstrated through comparison with gauge measurements that the method provides skillful estimates, although with a systematic dry bias. This study illustrates TAMSAT’s value as a complementary method of estimating rainfall through examples of successful operational application.

Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

Opportunities for magnetospheric research with coordinated cluster and ground-based observations

ESA’s first multi-satellite mission Cluster is unique in its concept of 4 satellites orbiting in controlled formations. This will give an unprecedented opportunity to study structure and dynamics of the magnetosphere. In this paper we discuss ways in which ground-based remote-sensing observations of the ionosphere can be used to support the multipoint in-situ satellite measurements. There are a very large number of potentially useful configurations between the satellites and any one ground-based observatory; however, the number of ideal occurrences for any one configuration is low. Many of the ground-based instruments cannot operate continuously and Cluster will take data only for a part of each orbit, depending on how much high-resolution (‘burst-mode’) data are acquired. In addition, there are a great many instrument modes and the formation, size and shape of the cluster of the four satellites to consider. These circumstances create a clear and pressing need for careful planning to ensure that the scientific return from Cluster is maximised by additional coordinated ground-based observations. For this reason, ESA established a working group to coordinate the observations on the ground with Cluster. We will give a number of examples how the combined spacecraft and ground-based observations can address outstanding questions in magnetospheric physics. An online computer tool has been prepared to allow for the planning of conjunctions and advantageous constellations between the Cluster spacecraft and individual or combined ground-based systems. During the mission a ground-based database containing index and summary data will help to identify interesting datasets and allow to select intervals for coordinated studies. We illustrate the philosophy of our approach, using a few important examples of the many possible configurations between the satellite and the ground-based instruments.

Ion populations on open field lines within the dayside low-latitude boundary layer: theory and observations during a transient event

We analyze of ion populations observed by the NOAA-12 satellite within dayside auroral transients. The data are matched with an open magnetopause model which allows for the transmission of magnetosheath ions across one or both of the two Alfvén waves which emanate from the magnetopause reconnection site. It also allows for reflection and acceleration of ions of magnetospheric origin by these waves. From the good agreement found between the model and the observations, we propose that the events and the low-latitude boundary precipitation are both on open field lines.

EISCAT/CRRES observations: nightside ionospheric ion outflow and oxygen-rich substorm injections

We present combined observations made near midnight by the EISCAT radar, all-sky cameras and the combined released and radiation efects satellite (CRRES) shortly before and during a substorm. In particular, we study a discrete, equatorward-drifting auroral arc, seen several degrees poleward of the onset region. The arc passes through the field-aligned beam of the EISCAT radar and is seen to be associated with a considerable upflow of ionospheric plasma. During the substorm, the CRRES satellite observed two major injections, 17 min apart, the second of which was dominated by O+ ions. We show that the observed are was in a suitable location in both latitude and MLT to have fed O+ ions into the second injection and that the upward flux of ions associated with it was sufficient to explain the observed injection. We interpret these data as showing that arcs in the nightside plasma-sheet boundary layer could be the source of O+ ions energised by a dipolarisation of the mid- and near-Earth tail, as opposed to ions ejected from the dayside ionosphere in the cleft ion fountain.

A survey of simultaneous observations of the high-latitude ionosphere and interplanetary magnetic field with EISCAT and AMPTE-UKS

This paper surveys the results of simultaneous observations by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar and the AMPTE-UKS satellite, made during three periods in September and October 1984, when AMPTE-UKS was in the solar wind on the dayside of the Earth and the UK-POLAR EISCAT experiment was measuring ionospheric parameters at invariant latitudes 70.8–75.0°. A total of 42 h of EISCAT convection velocity data, with 2.5 min resolution, were obtained, together with 28 h of simultaneous 5 s resolution AMPTE-UKS observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The general features of the AMPTE-UKS data are described in Section 2 and those of the EISCAT data are described in Sections 3 and 4. The main subjects discussed are the form of the plasma convection patterns and their dependence on all three components of the IMF (Section 5), the ionospheric response to abrupt changes in the IMF (Section 6), in particular a sharp ‘southward turning’ of the IMF on 27 October 1984, and a crossing of an IMF sector boundary. Section 7 describes ‘short lived rapid flow burst’, which are believed to be related to flux transfer events at the magnetopause.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: a real case study

Satellite-based (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar [SAR]) water level observations (WLOs) of the floodplain can be sequentially assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. This has the potential to keep the forecast on track, so providing an Earth Observation (EO) based flood forecast system. However, the operational applicability of such a system for floods developed over river networks requires further testing. One of the promising techniques for assimilation in this field is the family of ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filters. These filters use a limited-size ensemble representation of the forecast error covariance matrix. This representation tends to develop spurious correlations as the forecast-assimilation cycle proceeds, which is a further complication for dealing with floods in either urban areas or river junctions in rural environments. Here we evaluate the assimilation of WLOs obtained from a sequence of real SAR overpasses (the X-band COSMO-Skymed constellation) in a case study. We show that a direct application of a global Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) suffers from filter divergence caused by spurious correlations. However, a spatially-based filter localization provides a substantial moderation in the development of the forecast error covariance matrix, directly improving the forecast and also making it possible to further benefit from a simultaneous online inflow error estimation and correction. Additionally, we propose and evaluate a novel along-network metric for filter localization, which is physically-meaningful for the flood over a network problem. Using this metric, we further evaluate the simultaneous estimation of channel friction and spatially-variable channel bathymetry, for which the filter seems able to converge simultaneously to sensible values. Results also indicate that friction is a second order effect in flood inundation models applied to gradually varied flow in large rivers. The study is not conclusive regarding whether in an operational situation the simultaneous estimation of friction and bathymetry helps the current forecast. Overall, the results indicate the feasibility of stand-alone EO-based operational flood forecasting.

Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations

The Fennec climate program aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include: (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sized up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in-situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as CCN and IN at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold-pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse mode size distributions and AERONET sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Evaluation of a polynya flux model by means of thermal infrared satellite estimates

We test the ability of a two-dimensional flux model to simulate polynya events with narrow open-water zones by comparing model results to ice-thickness and ice-production estimates derived from thermal infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations in conjunction with an atmospheric dataset. Given a polynya boundary and an atmospheric dataset, the model correctly reproduces the shape of an 11 day long event, using only a few simple conservation laws. Ice production is slightly overestimated by the model, owing to an underestimated ice thickness. We achieved best model results with the consolidation thickness parameterization developed by Biggs and others (2000). Observed regional discrepancies between model and satellite estimates might be a consequence of the missing representation of the dynamic of the thin-ice thickening (e.g. rafting). We conclude that this simplified polynya model is a valuable tool for studying polynya dynamics and estimating associated fluxes of single polynya events.