Modeling population growth and site specific control of the invasive Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) under differing fire regimes

It is at the population level that an invasion either fails or succeeds. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Queensland Australia and globally but its whole life-history ecology is poorly known. Here we used 3 years of field data across four land use types (farm, hoop pine plantation and two open eucalyptus forests, including one with a triennial fire regime) to parameterise the weed’s vital rates and develop size-structured matrix models. Lantana camara in its re-colonization phase, as observed in the recently cleared hoop pine plantation, was projected to increase more rapidly (annual growth rate, λ = 3.80) than at the other three sites (λ 1.88–2.71). Elasticity analyses indicated that growth contributed more (64.6 %) to λ than fecundity (18.5 %) or survival (15.5 %), while across size groups, the contribution was of the order: juvenile (19–27 %) ≥ seed (17–28 %) ≥ seedling (16–25 %) > small adult (4–26 %) ≥ medium adult (7–20 %) > large adult (0–20 %). From a control perspective it is difficult to determine a single weak point in the life cycle of lantana that might be exploited to reduce growth below a sustaining rate. The triennial fire regime applied did not alter the population elasticity structure nor resulted in local control of the weed. However, simulations showed that, except for the farm population, periodic burning could work within 4–10 years for control of the weed, but fire frequency should increase to at least once every 2 years. For the farm, site-specific control may be achieved by 15 years if the biennial fire frequency is tempered with increased burning intensity.

Impact of a biological control agent, Chiasmia assimilis, on prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica ssp. indica) seedlings

A leaf-feeding geometrid, Chiasmia assimilis (Warren), was introduced into northern Queensland from South Africa in 2002 as a biological control agent for the invasive woody weed, prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica subsp. indica (Bentham) Brenan. The insect established in infestations in coastal areas between the townships of Ayr and Bowen where the larvae periodically cause extensive defoliation at some localities during summer and autumn. The impact of this herbivory on a number of plant parameters, including shoot length, basal stem diameter, root length, number of leaves, number of branches, and above and below ground biomass was investigated at one coastal site through an insect exclusion trial using potted seedlings and regular spray applications of a systemic insecticide to exclude the biological control agent. Half the seedlings, both sprayed and unsprayed, were placed beneath the prickly acacia canopy, the other half were placed in full sunlight. Larvae of C. assimilis were found on unsprayed seedlings in both situations. The effects of herbivory, however, were significant only for seedlings grown beneath the canopy. At the end of the five-month trial period, shoot length of these seedlings was reduced by 30%, basal stem diameter by 44%, root length by 15%, number of leaves by 97%, above ground biomass by 87%, and below ground biomass by 77% when compared to sprayed seedlings. Implications are that the insect, where established, may reduce seedling growth beneath existing canopies and in turn may help limit the formation of dense infestations. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Persistence of bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypifolia L.) soil seed banks

Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypifolia L.) is an invasive shrub that adversely impacts agricultural and natural systems of northern Australia. While several techniques are available to control bellyache bush, depletion of soil seed banks is central to its management. A 10-year study determined the persistence of intact and ant-discarded bellyache bush seeds buried in shade cloth packets at six depths (ranging from 0 to 40 cm) under both natural rainfall and rainfall-excluded conditions. A second study monitored changes in seedling emergence over time, to provide an indication of the natural rate of seed bank depletion at two sites (rocky and heavy clay) following the physical removal of all bellyache bush plants. Persistence of seed in the burial trial varied depending on seed type, rainfall conditions and burial depth. No viable seeds of bellyache bush remained after 72 months irrespective of seed type under natural rainfall conditions. When rainfall was excluded seeds persisted for much longer, with a small portion (0.4%) of ant-discarded seeds still viable after 120 months. Seed persistence was prolonged (> 96 months to decline to < 1% viability) at all burial depths under rainfall-excluded conditions. In contrast, under natural rainfall, surface located seeds took twice as long (70 months) to decline to 1% viability compared with buried seeds (35 months). No seedling emergence was observed after 58 months and 36 months at the rocky and heavy clay soil sites, respectively. These results suggest that the required duration of control programs on bellyache bush may vary due to the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on persistence of soil seed banks.

The virulence of Finnish Pyrenophora teres f. teres isolates and its implications for resistance breeding

In Finland, barley, Hordeum vulgare L., covers 50 % of the total acreage devoted to cereal cultivation. The most common disease of barley in Finland is net blotch, a foliar disease caused by the ascomycete Pyrenophora teres Drechsler. Disease resistance based on plant genes is an environmentally friendly and economical way to manage plant diseases caused by biotic stresses. Development of a disease resistance breeding programme is dependent on knowledge of the pathogen. In addition to information on the epidemiology and virulence of a pathogen, knowledge on how the pathogen evolves and the nature of the risks that might arise in the future are essential issues that need to be taken into account to achieve the final breeding aims. The main objectives of this study were to establish reliable and efficient testing methods for Pyrenophora teres f. teres virulence screening, and to understand the role of virulence of P. teres f. teres in Finland from a disease resistance breeding point of view. The virulence of P. teres was studied by testing 239 Finnish P. teres f. teres isolates collected between 1994 2007 originating from 19 locations, and 200 P. teres progeny isolates originating from artificially produced P. teres matings. According to the results of this study, screening for P. teres f. teres isolates on barley seedlings under greenhouse conditions is a feasible and cost efficient method to describe the virulence spectrum of the pathogen. Inoculum concentration and the seedling leaf used to gauge virulence had significant effects. Barley grain size, morphological traits of P. teres isolates, spore production and growth rate on agar did not affect the expression of virulence. A common barley differential set to characterize the P. teres virulence was developed and is recommended to be used globally. The virulence spectrum of Finnish P. teres f. teres isolates collected in 1994-2007 was constant both within and between the years. The results indicated differences in the pathogen s aggressiveness and in barley genotypes resistance. However, differences in virulence were rarely significant. Unlike in laboratory conditions, no indications of changes in virulence caused by the sexual reproduction have been observed in Finnish barley fields. In Finland, durable net blotch resistance has been achieved by introducing resistance from other barley varieties using traditional crossing methods, including wide crossing, and testing the breeding material at early generations at several sites under natural infection pressure. Novel resistance is available, which is recommended to minimize the risk of selection of virulent isolates and breakdown of currently deployed resistance.

Genetic control of nodal root angle in sorghum and its implications on water extraction

Genotypic variability in root system architecture has been associated with root angle of seedlings and water extraction patterns of mature plants in a range of crops. The potential inclusion of root angle as a selection criterion in a sorghum breeding program requires (1) availability of an efficient screening method, (2) presence of genotypic variation with high heritability, and (3) an association with water extraction pattern. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility for inclusion of nodal root angle as a selection criterion in sorghum breeding programs. A high-throughput phenotypic screen for nodal root angle in young sorghum plants has recently been developed and has been used successfully to identify significant variation in nodal root angle across a diverse range of inbred lines and a mapping population. In both cases, heritabilities for nodal root angle were high. No association between nodal root angle and plant size was detected. This implies that parental inbred lines could potentially be used to asses nodal root angle of their hybrids, although such predictability is compromised by significant interactions. To study effects of nodal root angle on water extraction patterns of mature plants, four inbred lines with contrasting nodal root angle at seedling stage were grown until at least anthesis in large rhizotrons. A consistent trend was observed that nodal root angle may affect the spatial distribution of root mass of mature plants and hence their ability to extract soil water, although genotypic differences were not significant. The potential implications of this for specific adaptation to drought stress are discussed. Results suggest that nodal root angle of young plants can be a useful selection criterion for specific drought adaptation, and could potentially be used in molecular breeding programs if QTLs for root angle can be identified. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deviant near-infrared spectra identifies Corymbia hybrids

The study examined the potential of Near Infrared Reflectance (NIR) spectroscopy for field diagnosis of hybrids between Corymbia (formerly Eucalyptus) species. NIR profiles were generated by scanning foliage from a total of 383 hybrid and 533 parental seedlings grown in a common garden and partial least squares discriminant analysis was used to test three-way model power to assign individuals to their appropriate taxon; either a parental or F1 hybrid class. Using the optimised conditions, fresh foliage from eight-month-old seedlings and a handheld NIR instrument (950–1800 nm), the mean assignment rates for the three hybrid groups ranged from 76% to 90%. Hybrid-parent contrast of NIR spectra deviated more so than parent–parent contrast. The F1 taxon assignment rates were usually higher than those for parents at 100% and 72%, respectively. Hybrid resolution was even greater for 2nd generation backcross hybrids. Similar to studies of morphology, taxon assignments tended to be more accurate for hybrid groups in which the parental taxa were more divergent. The practical application of this technique for hybrid diagnosis of seedlings in the nursery will require careful attention to control environmental factors because seedling age and storage effects influenced the ability of NIR to identify hybrids. The technique may also necessitate the generation of comparable reference populations, although exclusions approaches to analysis may circumvent the need for reference populations. The application of NIR in field diagnosis will be further complicated by the need to generate global models across environments but such models have been obtained for reliable prediction of chemistries in other situations.

Effects of weed control and fertilization at early establishment on tree nitrogen and water use in an exotic F1 hybrid pine of subtropical Australia

Purpose We investigated the effects of weed control and fertilization at early establishment on foliar stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (N) isotope (δ15N) compositions, foliar N concentration, tree growth and biomass, relative weed cover and other physiological traits in a 2-year old F1 hybrid (Pinus elliottii var. elliottii (Engelm) × Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis (Barr. ex Golf.)) plantation grown on a yellow earth in southeast Queensland of subtropical Australia. Materials and methods Treatments included routine weed control, luxury weed control, intermediate weed control, mechanical weed control, nil weed control, and routine and luxury fertilization in a randomised complete block design. Initial soil nutrition and soil fertility parameters included (hot water extractable organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N), total C and N, C/N ratio, labile N pools (nitrate (NO3 −) and ammonium (NH4 +)), extractable potassium (K+)), soil δ15N and δ13C. Relative weed cover, foliar N concentrations, tree growth rate and physiological parameters including photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency, foliar δ15N and foliar δ13C were also measured at early establishment. Results and discussion Foliar N concentration at 1.25 years was significantly different amongst the weed control treatments and was negatively correlated to the relative weed cover at 1.1 years. Foliar N concentration was also positively correlated to foliar δ15N and foliar δ13C, tree height, height growth rates and tree biomass. Foliar δ15N was negatively correlated to the relative weed cover at 0.8 and 1.1 years. The physiological measurements indicated that luxury fertilization and increasing weed competition on these soils decreased leaf xylem pressure potential (Ψxpp) when compared to the other treatments. Conclusions These results indicate how increasing N resources and weed competition have implications for tree N and water use at establishment in F1 hybrid plantations of southeast Queensland, Australia. These results suggest the desirability of weed control, in the inter-planting row, in the first year to maximise site N and water resources available for seedling growth. It also showed the need to avoid over-fertilisation, which interfered with the balance between available N and water on these soils.

Effects of light conditions and plant density on growth and reproductive biology of Cascabela thevetia (L.) Lippold

Cascabela thevetia (L.) Lippold (Apocynaceae) is an invasive woody weed that has formed large infestations at several locations in northern Australia. Understanding the reproductive biology of C. thevetia is vital to its management. This paper reports results of a shade house experiment that determined the effects of light conditions (100% or 30% of natural light) and plant densities (one, two, four or eight plants per plot) on the growth, time to flowering and seed formation, and monthly pod production of two C. thevetia biotypes (peach and yellow). Shaded plants were significantly larger when they reached reproductive maturity than plants grown under natural light. However, plants grown under natural light flowered earlier (268 days compared with 369 days) and produced 488 more pods per pot (a 5-fold increase) over 3 years. The yellow biotype was slightly taller at reproductive maturity but significantly taller and with significantly greater aboveground biomass at the end of the study. Both biotypes flowered at a similar time under natural light and low plant densities but the yellow biotype was quicker to seed (478 versus 498 days), produced significantly more pods (364 versus 203 pods) and more shoot growth (577 g versus 550 g) than the peach biotype over 3 years. Higher densities of C. thevetia tended to significantly reduce the shoot and root growth by 981 g and 714 g per plant across all light conditions and biotypes over 3 years and increase the time taken to flower by 140 days and produce seeds by 184 days. For land managers trying to prevent establishment of C. thevetia or to control seedling regrowth once initial infestations have been treated, this study indicates that young plants have the potential to flower and produce seeds within 268 and 353 days, respectively. However, with plant growth and reproduction most likely to be slower under field conditions, annual surveillance and control activities should be sufficient to find and treat plants before they produce seeds and replenish soil seed banks. The most at-risk part of the landscape may be open areas that receive maximum sunlight, particularly within riparian habitats where plants would consistently have more favourable soil moisture conditions.

Interference and management of parthenium: The world's most important invasive weed

Parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is one of the most aggressive herbaceous weeds of the Asteraceae family. It is widely distributed, almost across the world and has become the most important invasive weed. Comprehensive information on interference and control of this devastating species is required to facilitate better management decisions. A broad review on the interference and management of this weed is presented here. Inspite of its non-tropical origin, parthenium grows quite successfully under a wide range of environmental conditions. It is spreading rapidly in Australia, Western Africa, Asia, and Caribbean countries, and has become a serious weed of pastures, wastelands, roadsides, railwaysides, water courses, and agricultural crops. The infestations of parthenium have been reported to reduce grain and forage yields by 40–90%. The spread of parthenium has been attributed to its allelopathic activity, strong competitiveness for soil moisture and nutrients, and its capability to exploit natural biodiversity. Allelochemicals released from parthenium has been reported to decrease germination and growth of agronomic crops, vegetables, trees, and many other weed species. Growth promoting effects of parthenium extracts at low concentrations have also been reported in certain crops. Many pre- and post-emergence herbicides have been evaluated for the control of parthenium in cropped and non-cropped areas. The most effective herbicides are clomazone, metribuzin, atrazine, glyphosate, metsulfuron methyl, butachlor, bentazone, dicamba, and metsulfuron methyl. Extracts, residues, and essential oils of many allelopathic herbs (Cassia, Amaranthus, and Xanthium species), grasses (Imperata and Desmostachya species), and trees (Eucalyptus, Azadirachta, Mangifera species, etc.) have demonstrated inhibitory activities on seed germination and seedling growth of parthenium. Metabolites of several fungi, e.g., Fusarium oxysporun and Fusarium monilifonne, exhibit bioherbicidal activity against seeds and seedlings of this weed. Intercropping, displacement by competitive plant species like Cassia species, bisset bluegrass, florgen blugress, buffelgrass, along with the use of biological control agents like Mexican beetle, seed-feeding and stem-boring weevils, stem-galling and leaf-mining moth, and sap-feeding plant hopper, have been reported as possible strategies for the management of parthenium. An appropriate integration of these approaches could help minimize spread of parthenium and provide sustainable weed management with reduced environmental concerns.

Association mapping of resistance to Puccinia hordei in Australian barley breeding germplasm

Key message “To find stable resistance using association mapping tools, QTL with major and minor effects on leaf rust reactions were identified in barley breeding lines by assessing seedlings and adult plants.” Abstract Three hundred and sixty (360) elite barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) breeding lines from the Northern Region Barley Breeding Program in Australia were genotyped with 3,244 polymorphic diversity arrays technology markers and the results used to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) conferring a reaction to leaf rust (Puccinia hordei Otth). The F3:5 (Stage 2) lines were derived or sourced from different geographic origins or hubs of international barley breeding ventures representing two breeding cycles (2009 and 2011 trials) and were evaluated across eight environments for infection type at both seedling and adult plant stages. Association mapping was performed using mean scores for disease reaction, accounting for family effects using the eigenvalues from a matrix of genotype correlations. In this study, 15 QTL were detected; 5 QTL co-located with catalogued leaf rust resistance genes (Rph1, Rph3/19, Rph8/14/15, Rph20, Rph21), 6 QTL aligned with previously reported genomic regions and 4 QTL (3 on chromosome 1H and 1 on 7H) were novel. The adult plant resistance gene Rph20 was identified across the majority of environments and pathotypes. The QTL detected in this study offer opportunities for breeding for more durable resistance to leaf rust through pyramiding multiple genomic regions via marker-assisted selection.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species

Weather is a general stochastic influence on the life history of weeds. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. land use) is an important deterministic influence on weed demography. Our aim with this study was to investigate the relative contributions of land use and weather on the demography of Lantana camara (lantana), a weed of agricultural and natural habitats, based on the intensive monitoring of lantana populations under three land uses (viz. farm[pasture], and burnt and grazed forests) in subtropical Australia. Lantana populations were growing vigorously across all land uses (asymptotic population growth rate, lambda > 3). Examination of historical demography using retrospective perturbation analyses showed that weather was a strong influence on lantana demography with the transition from an El Nino (2008-09) to a La Nina (2009-10) year having a strong positive effect on population growth rate. This effect was most marked at the grazed site, and to a lesser extent at the burnt site, with seedling-to-juvenile and juvenile-to-adult transitions contributing most to these effects. This is likely the result of burning and grazing having eliminated/reduced interspecific competition at these sites. Prospective perturbation analyses revealed that lambda was most sensitive to proportionate changes in growth transitions, followed by fecundity and survival transitions. Examination of context-specific patterns in elasticity revealed that growth and fecundity transitions are likely to be the more critical vital rates to reduce lambda in wet years at the burnt and grazed forest sites, compared to the farm/pasture site. Management of lantana may need to limit the transition of juveniles into the adult stages, especially in sites where lantana is free from competition (e.g. in the presence of fire or grazing), and this particularly needs to be achieved in wet years. Collectively, these results shed light on aspects of spatial and temporal variation in the demography of lantana, and offer insights on its context-specific management.

Spot form of net blotch resistance in barley is under complex genetic control

Key message: Evaluation of resistance toPyrenophora teresf.maculatain barley breeding populations via association mapping revealed a complex genetic architecture comprising a mixture of major and minor effect genes. Abstract: In the search for stable resistance to spot form of net blotch (Pyrenophora teres f. maculata, SFNB), association mapping was conducted on four independent barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) breeding populations comprising a total of 898 unique elite breeding lines from the Northern Region Barley Breeding Program in Australia for discovery of quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing resistance at seedling and adult plant growth stages. A total of 29 significant QTL were validated across multiple breeding populations, with 22 conferring resistance at both seedling and adult plant growth stages. The remaining 7 QTL conferred resistance at either seedling (2 QTL) or adult plant (5 QTL) growth stages only. These 29 QTL represented 24 unique genomic regions, of which five were found to co-locate with previously identified QTL for SFNB. The results indicated that SFNB resistance is controlled by a large number of QTL varying in effect size with large effects QTL on chromosome 7H. A large proportion of the QTL acted in the same direction for both seedling and adult responses, suggesting that phenotypic selection for SFNB resistance performed at either growth stage could achieve adequate levels of resistance. However, the accumulation of specific resistance alleles on several chromosomes must be considered in molecular breeding selection strategies.

Seed bank longevity and age to reproductive maturity of Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton in the dry tropics of northern Queensland

Understanding the reproductive biology of Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton, an invasive weed of northern Australia, is critical for development of effective management strategies. Two experiments are reported on. In Experiment 1 seed longevity of C. procera seeds, exposed to different soil type (clay and river loam), pasture cover (present and absent) and burial depth (0, 2.5, 10 and 20 cm) treatments were examined. In Experiment 2 time to reach reproductive maturity was studied. The latter experiment included its sister species, C. gigantea (L.) W.T. Aiton, for comparison and two separate seed lots were tested in 2009 and 2012 to determine if exposure to different environmental conditions would influence persistence. Both seed lots demonstrated a rapid decline in viability over the first 3 months and declined to zero between 15 and 24 months after burial. In Experiment 1, longevity appeared to be most influenced by rainfall patterns and associated soil moisture, burial depth and soil type, but not the level of pasture cover. Experiment 2 showed that both C. procera and C. gigantea plants could flower once they had reached an average height of 85 cm. However, they differed significantly in terms of basal diameter at first flowering with C. gigantea significantly smaller (31 mm) than C. procera (45 mm). On average, C. gigantea flowered earlier (125 days vs 190 days) and set seed earlier (359 days vs 412 days) than C. procera. These results suggest that, under similar conditions to those that prevailed in the present studies, land managers could potentially achieve effective control of patches of C. procera in 2 years if they are able to kill all original plants and treat seedling regrowth frequently enough to prevent it reaching reproductive maturity. This suggested control strategy is based on the proviso that replenishment of the seed bank is not occurring from external sources (e.g. wind and water dispersal).

Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species

Weather is a general stochastic influence on the life history of weeds. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. land use) is an important deterministic influence on weed demography. Our aim with this study was to investigate the relative contributions of land use and weather on the demography of Lantana camara (lantana), a weed of agricultural and natural habitats, based on the intensive monitoring of lantana populations under three land uses (viz. farm[pasture], and burnt and grazed forests) in subtropical Australia. Lantana populations were growing vigorously across all land uses (asymptotic population growth rate, λ > 3). Examination of historical demography using retrospective perturbation analyses showed that weather was a strong influence on lantana demography with the transition from an El Niño (2008–09) to a La Niña (2009–10) year having a strong positive effect on population growth rate. This effect was most marked at the grazed site, and to a lesser extent at the burnt site, with seedling-to-juvenile and juvenile-to-adult transitions contributing most to these effects. This is likely the result of burning and grazing having eliminated/reduced interspecific competition at these sites. Prospective perturbation analyses revealed that λ was most sensitive to proportionate changes in growth transitions, followed by fecundity and survival transitions. Examination of context-specific patterns in elasticity revealed that growth and fecundity transitions are likely to be the more critical vital rates to reduce λ in wet years at the burnt and grazed forest sites, compared to the farm/pasture site. Management of lantana may need to limit the transition of juveniles into the adult stages, especially in sites where lantana is free from competition (e.g. in the presence of fire or grazing), and this particularly needs to be achieved in wet years. Collectively, these results shed light on aspects of spatial and temporal variation in the demography of lantana, and offer insights on its context-specific management.