Real-time performance modelling of a sustained attention to response task

Vigilance declines when exposed to highly predictable and uneventful tasks. Monotonous tasks provide little cognitive and motor stimulation and contribute to human errors. This paper aims to model and detect vigilance decline in real time through participant’s reaction times during a monotonous task. A lab-based experiment adapting the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART) is conducted to quantify the effect of monotony on overall performance. Then relevant parameters are used to build a model detecting hypovigilance throughout the experiment. The accuracy of different mathematical models are compared to detect in real-time – minute by minute - the lapses in vigilance during the task. We show that monotonous tasks can lead to an average decline in performance of 45%. Furthermore, vigilance modelling enables to detect vigilance decline through reaction times with an accuracy of 72% and a 29% false alarm rate. Bayesian models are identified as a better model to detect lapses in vigilance as compared to Neural Networks and Generalised Linear Mixed Models. This modelling could be used as a framework to detect vigilance decline of any human performing monotonous tasks.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Discrete choice modelling of combined mode and departure time

Typical daily decision-making process of individuals regarding use of transport system involves mainly three types of decisions: mode choice, departure time choice and route choice. This paper focuses on the mode and departure time choice processes and studies different model specifications for a combined mode and departure time choice model. The paper compares different sets of explanatory variables as well as different model structures to capture the correlation among alternatives and taste variations among the commuters. The main hypothesis tested in this paper is that departure time alternatives are also correlated by the amount of delay. Correlation among different alternatives is confirmed by analyzing different nesting structures as well as error component formulations. Random coefficient logit models confirm the presence of the random taste heterogeneity across commuters. Mixed nested logit models are estimated to jointly account for the random taste heterogeneity and the correlation among different alternatives. Results indicate that accounting for the random taste heterogeneity as well as inter-alternative correlation improves the model performance.

Performance evaluation of an adaptive travel time prediction model

This paper presents a travel time prediction model and evaluates its performance and transferability. Advanced Travelers Information Systems (ATIS) are gaining more and more importance, increasing the need for accurate, timely and useful information to the travelers. Travel time information quantifies the traffic condition in an easy to understand way for the users. The proposed travel time prediction model is based on an efficient use of nearest neighbor search. The model is calibrated for optimal performance using Genetic Algorithms. Results indicate better performance by using the proposed model than the presently used naïve model.

Estimation of travel time on urban networks with midlink sources and sinks

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of average travel time on signalized urban networks by integrating cumulative plots and probe data. This integration aims to reduce the relative deviations in the cumulative plots due to midlink sources and sinks. During undersaturated traffic conditions, the concept of a virtual probe is introduced, and therefore, accurate travel time can be obtained when a real probe is unavailable. For oversaturated traffic conditions, only one probe per travel time estimation interval—360 s or 3% of vehicles traversing the link as a probe—has the potential to provide accurate travel time.

Cluster-based network model for time-course gene expression data

We propose a model-based approach to unify clustering and network modeling using time-course gene expression data. Specifically, our approach uses a mixture model to cluster genes. Genes within the same cluster share a similar expression profile. The network is built over cluster-specific expression profiles using state-space models. We discuss the application of our model to simulated data as well as to time-course gene expression data arising from animal models on prostate cancer progression. The latter application shows that with a combined statistical/bioinformatics analyses, we are able to extract gene-to-gene relationships supported by the literature as well as new plausible relationships.

An epidemiological study of the relationship between time to surgery and health status for elderly patients with a hip fracture

A hip fracture causes permanent changes to life style for older people. Further, two important mortality indicators found post operatively for this group include, the time until surgery after fracture, and pre-operative health status prior to surgery, yet no research is available investigating relationships between time to surgery and health status. The researchers aimed to establish the health status risks for patients aged over 65 years with a non-pathological hip fracture to guide nursing care interventions. A prospective cohort design was used to investigate relationships between time to surgery and measures on pre-operative health status indicators including, skin integrity risk, vigor, mental state, bowel function and continence. Twenty-nine patients with a mean age in years of 81.93 (SD,9.49), were recruited. The mean number of hours from time 1 assessment to surgery was 52.72 (SD,58.35) and the range was 1 hour to 219 hours. At Time 2, the mean scores of vigor and skin integrity risk were significantly higher, indicating poorer health status. A change in health status occurred but possibly due to the small sample size it was difficult to relate this result to time. However the results informed preoperative care prior to surgery, for this group.

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) - genotyping of Community Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus, including the subtyping of PVL toxin producers using Real-Time PCR

Staphylococcus aureus is a common pathogen that causes a variety of infections including soft tissue infections, impetigo, septicemia toxic shock and scalded skin syndrome. Traditionally, Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was considered a Hospital-Acquired (HA) infection. It is now recognised that the frequency of infections with MRSA is increasing in the community, and that these infections are not originating from hospital environments. A 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated that Staphylococcus aureus is the most important cause of serious and fatal infections in the USA. Community-Acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) are genetically diverse and distinct, meaning they are able to be identified and tracked by way of genotyping. Genotyping of MRSA using Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is a rapid and robust method for monitoring MRSA, specifically ST93 (Queensland Clone) dissemination in the community. It has been shown that a large proportion of CA-MRSA infections in Queensland and New South Wales are caused by ST93. The rationale for this project was that SNP analysis of MLST genes is a rapid and cost-effective method for genotyping and monitoring MRSA dissemination in the community. In this study, 16 different sequence types (ST) were identified with 41% of isolates identified as ST93 making it the predominate clone. Males and Females were infected equally with an average patient age of 45yrs. Phenotypically, all of the ST93 had an identical antimicrobial resistance pattern. They were resistant to the β-lactams – Penicillin, Flu(di)cloxacillin and Cephalothin but sensitive to all other antibiotics tested. Virulence factors play an important role in allowing S. aureus to cause disease by way of colonising, replication and damage to the host. One virulence factor of particular interest is the toxin Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL), which is composed of two separate proteins encoded by two adjacent genes. PVL positive CA-MRSA are shown to cause recurrent, chronic or severe skin and soft tissue infections. As a result, it is important that PVL positive CA-MRSA is genotyped and tracked. Especially now that CA-MRSA infections are more prevalent than HA-MRSA infections and are now deemed endemic in Australia. 98% of all isolates in this study tested positive for the PVL toxin gene. This study showed that PVL is present in many different community based ST, not just ST93, which were all PVL positive. With this toxin becoming entrenched in CA-MRSA, genotyping would provide more accurate data and a way of tracking the dissemination. PVL gene can be sub-typed using an allele-specific Real-Time PCR (RT-PCR) followed by High resolution meltanalysis. This allows the identification of PVL subtypes within the CA-MRSA population and allow the tracking of these clones in the community.