Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report—Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change.

Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

High resolution surface wind fields covering the global ocean, estimated from remotely sensed wind data and ECMWF wind analyses, have been available since 2005 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees in longitude and latitude, and a temporal resolution of 6h. Their quality is investigated through various comparisons with surface wind vectors from 190 buoys moored in various oceanic basins, from research vessels and from QuikSCAT scatterometer data taken during 2005-2006. The NCEP/NCAR and NCDC blended wind products are also considered. The comparisons performed during January-December 2005 show that speeds and directions compare well to in-situ observations, including from moored buoys and ships, as well as to the remotely sensed data. The root-mean-squared differences of the wind speed and direction for the new blended wind data are lower than 2m/s and 30 degrees, respectively. These values are similar to those estimated in the comparisons of hourly buoy measurements and QuickSCAT near real time retrievals. At global scale, it is found that the new products compare well with the wind speed and wind vector components observed by QuikSCAT. No significant dependencies on the QuikSCAT wind speed or on the oceanic region considered are evident.Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: initialization month dependence

Seasonal-to-interannual predictions of Arctic sea ice may be important for Arctic communities and industries alike. Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea ice is potentially predictable but that the skill of predictions of the September extent minimum, initialized in early summer, may be low. The authors demonstrate that a melt season “predictability barrier” and two predictability reemergence mechanisms, suggested by a previous study, are robust features of five global climate models. Analysis of idealized predictions with one of these models [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1.2 (HadGEM1.2)], initialized in January, May and July, demonstrates that this predictability barrier exists in initialized forecasts as well. As a result, the skill of sea ice extent and volume forecasts are strongly start date dependent and those that are initialized in May lose skill much faster than those initialized in January or July. Thus, in an operational setting, initializing predictions of extent and volume in July has strong advantages for the prediction of the September minimum when compared to predictions initialized in May. Furthermore, a regional analysis of sea ice predictability indicates that extent is predictable for longer in the seasonal ice zones of the North Atlantic and North Pacific than in the regions dominated by perennial ice in the central Arctic and marginal seas. In a number of the Eurasian shelf seas, which are important for Arctic shipping, only the forecasts initialized in July have continuous skill during the first summer. In contrast, predictability of ice volume persists for over 2 yr in the central Arctic but less in other regions.

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for the impact of the crusades on the local and regional environment of medieval (13th–16th century) northern Latvia, eastern Baltic

This paper evaluates the impact of the crusades on the landscape and environment of northern Latvia between the 13th–16th centuries (medieval Livonia). The crusades replaced tribal societies in the eastern Baltic with a religious state (Ordenstaat) run by the military orders and their allies, accompanied by significant social, cultural and economic developments. These changes have previously received little consideration in palaeoenvironmental studies of past land use in the eastern Baltic region, but are fundamental to understanding the development and expansion of a European Christian identity. Sediment cores from Lake Trikāta, located adjacent to a medieval castle and settlement, were studied using pollen, macrofossils, loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility. Our results show that despite continuous agricultural land use from 500 BC, the local landscape was still densely wooded until the start of the crusades in AD 1198 when a diversified pattern of pasture, meadow and arable land use was established. Colonisation followed the crusades, although in Livonia this occurred on a much smaller scale than in the rest of the Ordenstaat; Trikāta is atypical showing significant impact following the crusades with many other palaeoenvironmental studies only revealing more limited impact from the 14th century and later. Subsequent wars and changes in political control in the post-medieval period had little apparent effect on agricultural land use.

Variation on the effects of the 2003 CAP reform and regional differences in the Italian olive oil sector

This paper analyses the impacts of the 2003 CAP reform on the production of Italian olive oil controlling for the regional differences in olive oil production as well as for the differences between years. Italian olive oil production time series data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network for the 2000-2010 period at regional level is used to examine the effect of the 2003 Fischler reform on the production of olive oil. Production costs and payments received by farmers to support their income are considered. The data were collected at micro level based on a sample of farms representative of the production systems in the country. In order to consider the differences in production among the regions, eight representative regions in terms of surveyed farms are considered: Liguria, Toscana, Umbria, Lazio, Campania, Calabria, Puglia and Sicilia. We found that the most important factors affecting the production of olive oil are the area under olive groves and labour productivity. Results also show no evidence that the level of payments have an impact to the level of production, however, the type of payments has. Future work should explore the impact of the 2003 reform into the technical and production efficiency of the Italian olive oil farmers. It would be interesting to link the measures introduced by the cross compliance and the management practices of the different farms to have a more complete picture of the various parameters influencing the production of olive oil.

Genetic algorithm inversion of the average 1D crustal structure using local and regional earthquakes

Knowing the best 1D model of the crustal and upper mantle structure is useful not only for routine hypocenter determination, but also for linearized joint inversions of hypocenters and 3D crustal structure, where a good choice of the initial model can be very important. Here, we tested the combination of a simple GA inversion with the widely used HYPO71 program to find the best three-layer model (upper crust, lower crust, and upper mantle) by minimizing the overall P- and S-arrival residuals, using local and regional earthquakes in two areas of the Brazilian shield. Results from the Tocantins Province (Central Brazil) and the southern border of the Sao Francisco craton (SE Brazil) indicated an average crustal thickness of 38 and 43 km, respectively, consistent with previous estimates from receiver functions and seismic refraction lines. The GA + HYPO71 inversion produced correct Vp/Vs ratios (1.73 and 1.71, respectively), as expected from Wadati diagrams. Tests with synthetic data showed that the method is robust for the crustal thickness, Pn velocity, and Vp/Vs ratio when using events with distance up to about 400 km, despite the small number of events available (7 and 22, respectively). The velocities of the upper and lower crusts, however, are less well constrained. Interestingly, in the Tocantins Province, the GA + HYPO71 inversion showed a secondary solution (local minimum) for the average crustal thickness, besides the global minimum solution, which was caused by the existence of two distinct domains in the Central Brazil with very different crustal thicknesses. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trade Liberalization and Regional Impacts on Residual Wage Inequality: Evidence from Brazil

O objetivo deste trabalho é entender mais sobre o papel da liberalização sobre a desigualdade salarial, mais precisamente, sobre a desigualdade residual dos salários. Usando a abertura comercial brasileira, a extensa redução tarifária que ocorreu entre 1987 e 1995, é investigado empiricamente se os diferentes níveis de exposição ao comércio entre os estados contribuíram para os diferentes movimentos da desigualdade. Os resultados indicam que estados mais expostos à liberalização comercial experimentaram um aumento relativo da desigualdade residual dos salários ou, de forma equivalente, uma menor redução. Estes resultados enriquecem a discussão dos efeitos da abertura comercial sobre a desigualdade.

Internal Architecture and Population Size of Acromyrmex subterraneus molestans (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) Nests: Comparison Between a Rural and an Urban Area

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The impact of different types of physical activity on total and regional bone mineral density in young Brazilian athletes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mesoproterozoic rapakivi granites of the Rondonia Tin Province, southwestern border of the Amazonian craton, Brazil - I. Reconnaissance U-Pb geochronology and regional implications

Rapakivi granites and associated mafic and ultramafic rocks in the Rondonia Tin Province, southwestern Amazonian craton, Brazil were emplaced during six discrete episodes of magmatism between ca 1600 and 970 Ma. The seven rapakivi granite suites emplaced at this time were the Serra da Providencia Intrusive Suite (U-Pb ages between 1606 and 1532 Ma); Santo Antonio Intrusive Suite(U-Pb age 1406 Ma), Teotonio Intrusive Suite (U-Pb age 1387 Ma); Alto Candeias Intrusive Suite (U-Pb ages between 1346 and 1338 Ma); Sao Lourenco-Caripunas Intrusive Suite (U-Pb ages between 1314 and 1309 Ma); Santa Clara Intrusive Suite (U-Pb ages between 1082 and 1074 Ma); and Younger Granites of Rondonia (U-Pb ages between 998 and 974 Ma). The Serra da Providencia Intrusive Suite intruded the Paleoproterozoic (1.80 to 1.70 Ga) Rio Negro-Juruena crust whereas the other suites were emplaced into the 1.50 to 1.30 Ga Rondonia-San Ignacio crust. Their intrusion was contemporaneous with orogenic activity in other parts of the southwestern Amazonian craton, except for the oldest, Serra da Providencia Intrusive Suite. Orogenic events coeval with emplacement of the Serra da Providencia Intrusive Suite are not clearly recognized in the region. The Santo Antonio, Teotonio, Alto Candeias and Sao Lourenco-Caripunas Intrusive Suites are interpreted to represent extensional anorogenic magmatism associated with the terminal stages of the Rondonian-San Ignacio orogeny. At least the Sao Lourenco-Caripunas rapakivi granites and coeval intra-continental rift sedimentary rocks may, in contrast, represent the products of extensional tectonics and rifting preceding the Sunsas/Aguapei orogeny (1.25 to 1.0 Ga). The two youngest rapakivi suites, the Santa Clara Intrusive Suite and Younger Granites of Rondonia, seemingly represent inboard magmatism in the Rondonian-San Ignacio Province during a younger episode of reworking in the Rio Negro-Juruena Province during the waning stages of the collisional 1.1 to 1.0 Ga Sunsas/Aguapei orogeny. The six intra-plate rapakivi granite episodes in the southwestern part of the Amazonian craton form three broad periods of anorogenic magmatism that have age-correlative events composed of similar rocks and geologic environments in eastern Laurentia and Baltica, although the exact timing of magmatism appears slightly different. Recognition of lithologic and chronological correlations between various cratons provide important constraints to models explaining the interplay between rapakivi granite magmatism and deep crustal evolution of an early Mesoproterozoic supercontinent. They are, furthermore, important to plate tectonic models for the assembly, dispersal and reassembly of Amazonia, Laurentia and Baltica in the Mesoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic. (C) 1999 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Precipitation chemistry in semi-arid areas of Southern Africa: A case study of a rural and an industrial site

Experimental data on the precipitation chemistry in the semi-arid savanna of South Africa is presented in this paper. A total of 901 rainwater samples were collected with automatic wet-only samplers at a rural site, Louis Trichardt, and at an industrial site, Amersfoort, from July 1986 to June 1999. The chemical composition of precipitation was analysed for seven inorganic and two organic ions, using ion chromatography. The most abundant ion was SO(4)(2-) and a large proportion of the precipitation is acidic, with 98% of samples at Amersfoort and 94% at Louis Trichardt having a pH below 5.6 ( average pH of 4.4 and 4.9, respectively). This acidity results from a mixture of mineral and organic acids, with mineral acids being the primary contributors to the precipitation acidity in Amersfoort, while at Louis Trichardt, organic and mineral acids contribute equal amounts of acidity. It was found that the composition of rainwater is controlled by five sources: marine, terrigenous, nitrogenous, biomass burning and anthropogenic sources. The relative contributions of these sources at the two sites were calculated. Anthropogenic sources dominate at Amersfoort and biomass burning at Louis Trichardt. Most ions exhibit a seasonal pattern at Louis Trichardt, with the highest concentrations occurring during the austral spring as a result of agricultural activities and biomass combustion, while at Amersfoort it is less pronounced due to the dominance of relatively constant industrial emissions. The results are compared to observations from other African regions.

RESTRUCTURING of SYSTEMS and LOGISTICS of MOVEMENT and ITS IMPACT on URBAN and REGIONAL PLANNING PAULISTA

Report some of the changes in production and consumption occurring in the state of São Paulo. through the restructuring in motion systems, logistics and standards and taxation, as well as the impacts on urban spaces through new economic dynamics, imposed by the demands of corporate, is the purpose of this article. The decentralization of production and consumption towards the interior was made possible by the combination of hierarchical and ordered some basic elements such as technological innovations (ways and means of transport) and organizational (logistics, standards and taxation) which optimized the flow territorial state São Paulo. It is noteworthy, therefore: 1) the improvement of logistics as a strategy, planning and management of transport, storage and communications (including the granting of public services to private), 2) the technological improvement and expansion of motion systems (infrastructure, means of transport) and 3) the systems of rules and regulations through taxation and deregulation affect the circulatory system of a given space. Thus, both systems aims to disentangle the economic flows (goods, services, information, capital and people) and provide a more fluid territorial. The impacts on the State of São Paulo, mainly through its economic dynamics, revert positively and negatively, by changing the way one thinks and performs planning.