Maternal Role & High-Risk Pregnancy Experience with Antepartum Hospitalization

Purpose. The focus of maternal role development, historically, has been on the tasks and processes during pregnancy as they relate to postpartum role transition. The purpose of this study was to investigate how women hospitalized with high-risk pregnancy cognitively construct pregnancy and impending motherhood. ^ Design. The study employed a triangulation design using a convergence model with a dominant focused ethnographic approach. ^ Setting. The antepartum units of two tertiary care centers in a large metropolitan city in southeast Texas. ^ Sample. Data saturation was determined with thirteen (13) primigravid women who had been hospitalized more than 72 hours with preterm labor (PTL) or preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) who subsequently delivered seventeen (17) infants which included 4 sets of twins. ^ Methods. Open-ended, semi-structured interviews and field work were used to explore the development of maternal role in this population. After collecting descriptive data, long individual interviews were conducted and the Prenatal Self Evaluation Questionnaire (PSEQ), an instrument to measure prenatal adaptation to pregnancy, was administered. The interview focused on exploring the woman's experiences of pregnancy and impending motherhood while hospitalized. Interview data and field notes were coded and analyzed using qualitative thematic analytic techniques. The PSEQ was scored and the findings of the qualitative data and PSEQ data were compared. ^ Findings. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data provided an understanding of the cognitive process that occurs as the pregnant woman builds a relationship with the fetus. Thematic analysis resulted in a conceptual model with two complementary components that occur throughout the pregnancy: Establishing a Relationship and Dynamic Equilibrium. Establishing a Relationship includes subthemes of: Courting, Building a Connection, and Engagement. Dynamic equilibrium is the balance between expectations and reality and exists regardless of pregnancy complications. The negotiation of this potential imbalance is triggered by uncertainty, loss of autonomy and control, and isolation and is exacerbated by the high-risk pregnancy and subsequent hospitalization. These triggers can serve as obstacles to maternal role development, but may be mediated by external support from friends and family or health care providers. Support from others may come in the form of anticipatory guidance, presence, or activities that promote self-agency. PSEQ scores were similar to previous reports, but due to the small sample, scores were used primarily for comparison to qualitative data. The qualitative findings were congruent with the PSEQ findings in all of the subscales except in the concern for the well-being of the baby. Interview reports included comments demonstrating significant concern for the well-being of the infant, yet the related subscale did not demonstrate such concern. ^ Conclusions. An understanding of the cognitive process involved in establishing a relationship with the developing fetus related to impending motherhood and the importance of dynamic equilibrium can allow healthcare providers and those who interact with pregnant women to support development of the maternal role and anticipate those barriers that may impede that process. Findings from this study identify those triggers and mediators that influence development of the maternal role and suggest potential intervening strategies for those involved in the care of childbearing families. ^

The relationship between calcium and fluoride intake, pregnancy and lactation and the risk of height loss in white women

This study was designed to investigate the effect of calcium and fluoride intake, and parity and lactation on the risk of spinal osteoporosis. Height loss was used as a surrogate measure for spinal fractures by taking advantage of documented changes in height found during the 25-year follow-up of the Charleston Heart Study cohort. Women who had lost 2-4" in height or who had no change in height during the follow-up period were defined as case and comparison subjects respectively. Calcium intake when the subjects were "about 25" and in the recent past, average intake of fluoride over 25 years, and parity and history of breastfeeding were ascertained by questionnaire from 54 case and 77 comparison subjects. Low calcium intake in the past decreased the risk of height loss (age-adjusted OR = 0.3, 95%CI: 0.1-0.96) although several potentially important confounding variables could not be adjusted for. There was no association between risk of height loss and present calcium intake (OR = 0.8, 95%CI: 0.3-2.6 for low versus high intake) after adjustment for past calcium intake. High fluoride intake decreased the risk of height loss (adjusted OR = 0.4, 95%CI: 0.1-1.2). The effect of fluoride or calcium intake in the present was modified by the level of the other nutrient. Compared to a low intake of both calcium and fluoride, a high intake of one increased the risk of height loss (crude OR = 3.3 for high fluoride/low calcium, crude OR = 6.0 for high calcium/low fluoride) although a high intake of both was slightly protective (crude OR = 0.7). It is estimated that a "high" nutrient intake in this population was greater than 850mg/day for calcium and 2mg/day for fluoride. After adjustment for age, increasing parity decreased the risk of height loss in women who had never breastfed (OR = 0.2, 95%CI: 0.01-1.7 for 4 or more children). Women who had breastfed were also at lower risk of height loss than nulliparous women (OR = 0.3, 95%CI: 0.1-1.2 for 4 or more children) although at any level of parity, breastfeeding women had a greater risk of height loss than did non-breastfeeding women. ^

An assessment of risk of osteogenic sarcoma from exposure to radium

The etiology of the vast majority of osteosarcoma deaths has not been explained. A possible explanation might be lifetime ingestion of radium from environmental sources which might give rise to differential risk. This study was an effort toward understanding the role of naturally occurring radium in the etiology of bone cancer. Furthermore, there was an interest in the interaction of between radionuclides and selenium; the latter believed to be a potential anticarcinogen.^ Two approaches were used to evaluate the association between environmental radium, selenium and osteogenic sarcoma: (1) spatial and temporal patterns of osteogenic sarcoma mortality in Texas were described for the period from 1969 to 1988; and (2) a case-control study was performed using 974 osteosarcoma deaths and category-matched controls selected from other deaths to evaluate the association between this disease and residency history as an indirect measure of radium and selenium exposures.^ Analyses and comparison of mortality in a population exposed to regions of elevated levels of radium 226,228 and elevated levels of selenium in drinking water with those in a matched control population have resulted in three observations: (1) there appeared to be a slight protective effect for residing in areas high in radium; (2) there were no significant differences between cases and controls when observed for length of residence or residence in urban/rural regions of high or low radium; and (3) although regions high in selenium appeared to have a decreased risk for bone cancer and urban areas in regions of elevated selenium showed an increased risk of bone cancer, these differences were not significant. ^

A case-control study to identify risk factors for preterm labor in Colorado Springs, Colorado

The study objectives were to determine risk factors for preterm labor (PTL) in Colorado Springs, CO, with emphasis on altitude and psychosocial factors, and to develop a model that identifies women at high risk for PTL. Three hundred and thirty patients with PTL were matched to 460 control patients without PTL using insurance category as an indirect measure of social class. Data were gathered by patient interview and review of medical records. Seven risk groups were compared: (1) Altitude change and travel; (2) Psychosocial ((a) child, sexual, spouse, alcohol and drug abuse; (b) neuroses and psychoses; (c) serious accidents and injuries; (d) broken home (maternal parental separation); (e) assault (physical and sexual); and (f) stress (emotional, domestic, occupational, financial and general)); (3) demographic; (4) maternal physical condition; (5) Prenatal care; (6) Behavioral risks; and (7) Medical factors. Analysis was by logistic regression. Results demonstrated altitude change before or after conception and travel during pregnancy to be non-significant, even after adjustment for potential confounding variables. Five significant psychosocial risk factors were determined: Maternal sex abuse (p = 0.006), physical assault (p = 0.025), nervous breakdown (p = 0.011), past occupational injury (p = 0.016), and occupational stress (p = 0.028). Considering all seven risk groups in the logistic regression, we chose a logistic model with 11 risk factors. Two risk factors were psychosocial (maternal spouse abuse and past occupational injury), 1 was pertinent to maternal physical condition ($\le$130 lbs. pre-pregnancy weight), 1 to prenatal care ($\le$10 prenatal care visits), 2 pertinent to behavioral risks ($>$15 cigarettes per day and $\le$30 lbs. weight gain) and 5 medical factors (abnormal genital culture, previous PTB, primiparity, vaginal bleeding and vaginal discharge). We conclude that altitude change is not a risk factor for PTL and that selected psychosocial factors are significant risk factors for PTL. ^

A multi-site pilot test study to measure safety climate in the university work setting

Next to leisure, sport, and household activities, the most common activity resulting in medically consulted injuries and poisonings in the United States is work, with an estimated 4 million workplace related episodes reported in 2008 (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2009). To address the risks inherent to various occupations, risk management programs are typically put in place that include worker training, engineering controls, and personal protective equipment. Recent studies have shown that such interventions alone are insufficient to adequately manage workplace risks, and that the climate in which the workers and safety program exist (known as the "safety climate") is an equally important consideration. The organizational safety climate is so important that many studies have focused on developing means of measuring it in various work settings. While safety climate studies have been reported for several industrial settings, published studies on assessing safety climate in the university work setting are largely absent. Universities are particularly unique workplaces because of the potential exposure to a diversity of agents representing both acute and chronic risks. Universities are also unique because readily detectable health and safety outcomes are relatively rare. The ability to measure safety climate in a work setting with rarely observed systemic outcome measures could serve as a powerful means of measure for the evaluation of safety risk management programs. ^ The goal of this research study was the development of a survey tool to measure safety climate specifically in the university work setting. The use of a standardized tool also allows for comparisons among universities throughout the United States. A specific study objective was accomplished to quantitatively assess safety climate at five universities across the United States. At five universities, 971 participants completed an online questionnaire to measure the safety climate. The average safety climate score across the five universities was 3.92 on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 indicating very high perceptions of safety at these universities. The two lowest overall dimensions of university safety climate were "acknowledgement of safety performance" and "department and supervisor's safety commitment". The results underscore how the perception of safety climate is significantly influenced at the local level. A second study objective regarding evaluating the reliability and validity of the safety climate questionnaire was accomplished. A third objective fulfilled was to provide executive summaries resulting from the questionnaire to the participating universities' health & safety professionals and collect feedback on usefulness, relevance and perceived accuracy. Overall, the professionals found the survey and results to be very useful, relevant and accurate. Finally, the safety climate questionnaire will be offered to other universities for benchmarking purposes at the annual meeting of a nationally recognized university health and safety organization. The ultimate goal of the project was accomplished and was the creation of a standardized tool that can be used for measuring safety climate in the university work setting and can facilitate meaningful comparisons amongst institutions.^

Risk factors for metabolic syndrome among overweight and obese Hispanic children attending a pediatric clinic in New Braunfels, Texas

Childhood obesity is a persistent problem in the U.S., especially among Hispanics. Health complications like hypertension, type II diabetes, and metabolic syndrome (Met-S) are being seen at younger ages, and current screening procedures may be inadequate. This study sought to describe the risk factors for Met-S present in a sample of 106 overweight and obese Hispanic children, aged 5-14 years, participating in Nutrition and Exercise Start Today (NEST), a randomized weight management intervention trial at a rural health clinic in New Braunfels, Texas; and to determine associations between these factors and other clinical and socio-demographic characteristics linked to obesity. Baseline data was analyzed for the prevalence of large waist circumference (WC), elevated blood pressure (BP), high fasting serum glucose and serum triglycerides (TG), and low serum HDL cholesterol, in relationship with selected sample characteristics. Main findings included high baseline prevalence rates of large WC (77%), reduced HDL (57%), and elevated BP (30%). WC was significantly associated with BMI percentile and the serum liver function test alanine aminotransferase (ALT) by Fisher's exact test (p<0.001 and p=0.032, respectively), while there were significant relationships between HDL and both female gender and ALT. BMI percentile and ALT were associated with all sets of Met-S diagnostic criteria examined. BMI percentile also had a strong association (p=0.005) with total number of Met-S risk factors, while ALT had a weaker association (p=0.093). WC is a low-cost, simple measure whose use may improve clinic surveillance for childhood obesity and complications like Met-S. WC, BP, HDL and ALT may be used as part of targeted screening for obesity complications like Met-S, particularly in situations where resources are limited.^

Association between length of stay in the U.S. and diabetes risk factors among Chinese Americans in Houston, Texas in 2004-2005

Studies have suggested that acculturation is related to diabetes prevalence and risk factors among immigrant groups in the United States (U.S.), however scant data are available to investigate this relationship among Asian Americans and Asian American subgroups. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to examine the association between length of stay in the U.S. and type 2 diabetes prevalence and its risk factors among Chinese Americans in Houston, Texas. Data were obtained from the 2004-2005 Asian-American Health Needs Assessment in Houston, Texas (N=409 Chinese Americans) for secondary analysis in this study. Diabetes prevalence and risk factors (overweight/obesity and access to medical care) were based on self-report. Descriptive statistics summarized demographic characteristics, diabetes prevalence, and reasons for not seeing a doctor. Logistic regression, using an incremental modeling approach, was used to measure the association between length of stay and diabetes prevalence and related risk factors, while adjusting for the potential confounding factors of age, gender, education level, and income level. Although the prevalence of type 2 diabetes was highest among those living in the U.S. for more than 20 years, there was no significant association between length of stay in the U.S. and diabetes prevalence among these Chinese Americans after adjustment for confounding factors. No association was found between length of stay in the U.S. and overweight/obese status among this population either, after adjusting for confounding factors, too. On the other hand, a longer length of stay was significantly associated with increased health insurance coverage in both unadjusted and adjusted models. The findings of this study suggest that length of stay in the U.S. alone may not be an indicator for diabetes risk among Chinese Americans. Future research should consider alternative models to measure acculturation (e.g., models that reflect acculturation as a multi-dimensional, not uni-dimensional process), which may more accurately depict its effect on diabetes prevalence and related risk factors.^

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^

Real Options: A Tool for Managing Technical Risk in a Mine Plan

NPV is a static measure of project value which does not discriminate between levels of internal and external risk in project valuation. Due to current investment project?s characteristics, a much more complex model is needed: one that includes the value of flexibility and the different risk levels associated with variables subject to uncertainty (price, costs, exchange rates, grade and tonnage of the deposits, cut off grade, among many others). Few of these variables present any correlation or can be treated uniformly. In this context, Real Option Valuation (ROV) arose more than a decade ago, as a mainly theoretical model with the potential for simultaneous calculation of the risk associated with such variables. This paper reviews the literature regarding the application of Real Options Valuation in mining, noting the prior focus on external risks, and presents a case study where ROV is applied to quantify risk associated to mine planning.

Evolution and treatment of vitamin B12 deficiency as a risk factor for (cognitive and functional) neurodegenerative diseases in institutionalized elderly = Evolución y tratamiento de la deficiencia de vitamina B12 como factor de riesgo de enfermedades neurodegenerativas (cognitivas y funcionales) en las personas mayores institucionalizadas.

Prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency is very common in elderly people and can reach values as high as 40.5% of the population. It can be the result of the interaction among several factors. Vitamin B12 deficiencies have been associated with neurological, cognitive deterioration, haematological abnormalities and cardiovascular diseases that have an important influence on the health of the elderly and their quality of life. It is necessary to approach the problems arisen from the lack of data relative to them. The main objective of this thesis was to analyse the evolution of vitamin B12 status and related parameters, lipid and haematological profiles and their relationship to health risk factors, and to functional and cognitive status over one year and to determine the effect of an oral supplementation of 500 μg of cyanocobalamin for a short period of 28 days. An additional objective was to analyze the possible effects of medicine intakes on vitamin B status. Three studies were performed: a) a one year longitudinal follow-up with four measure points; b) an intervention study providing an oral liquid supplement of 500 μg of cyanocobalamin for a 28 days period; and c) analysis of the possible effect of medication intake on vitamin B status using the ATC classification of medicines. The participants for these studies were recruited from nursing homes for the elderly in the Region of Madrid. Sixty elders (mean age 84 _ 7y, 19 men and 41 women) were recruited for Study I and 64 elders (mean age 82 _ 7y, 24 men and 40 women) for Study II. For Study III, baseline data from the initially recruited participants of the first two studies were used. An informed consent was obtained from all participants or their mentors. The studies were approved by the Ethical Committee of the University of Granada. Blood samples were obtained at each examination date and were analyzed for serum cobalamin, holoTC, serum and RBC folate and total homocysteine according to laboratory standard procedures. The haematological parameters analyzed were haematocrit, haemoglobin and MCV. For the lipid profile TG, total cholesterol, LDL- and HDLcholesterol were analyzed. Anthropometric measures (BMI, skinfolds [triceps and subscapular], waist girth and waist to hip ratio), functional tests (hand grip, arm and leg strength tests, static balance) and MMSE were obtained or administered by trained personal. The vitamin B12 supplement of Study II was administered with breakfast and the medication intake was taken from the residents’ anamnesis. Data were analyzed by parametric and non-parametric statistics depending on the obtained data. Comparisons were done using the appropriate ANOVAs or non-parametric tests. Pearsons’ partial correlations with the variable “time” as control were used to define the association of the analyzed parameters. XIII The results showed that: A) Over one year, in relationship to vitamin B status, serum cobalamin decreased, serum folate and mean corpuscular volumen increased significantly and total homocysteine concentrations were stable. Regarding blood lipid profile, triglycerides increased and HDL-cholesterol decreased significantly. Regarding selected anthropometric measurements, waist circumference increased significantly. No significant changes were observed for the rest of parameters. B) Prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia was high in the elderly studied, ranging from 60% to 90 % over the year depending on the cut-off used for the classification. LDL-cholesterol values were high, especially among women, and showed a tendency to increase over the year. Results of the balance test showed a deficiency and a tendency to decrease; this indicates that the population studied is at high risk for falls. Lower extremity muscular function was deficient and showed a tendency to decrease. A highly significant relationship was observed between the skinfold of the triceps and blood lipid profile. C) Low cobalamin concentrations correlated significantly with low MMSE scores in the elderly studied. No correlations were observed between vitamin B12 status and functional parameters. D) Regarding vitamin B12 status, holo-transcobalamin seems to be more sensitive for diagnosis; 5-10% of the elderly had a deficiency using serum cobalamin as a criterion, and 45-52% had a deficiency when using serum holotranscobalamin as a criterion. E) 500 μg of cyanocobalamin administered orally during 28 days significantly improved vitamin B12 status and significantly decreased total homocysteine concentrations in institutionalized elderly. No effect of the intervention was observed on functional and cognitive parameters. F) The relative change (%) of improvement of vitamin B12 status was higher when using serum holo-transcobalamin as a criterion than serum cobalamin. G) Antiaenemic drug intake normalized cobalamin, urologic drugs and corticosteroids serum folate, and psychoanaleptics holo-transcobalamin levels. Drugs treating pulmonary obstruction increased total homocysteine concentration significantly. H) The daily mean drug intake was 5.1. Fiftynine percent of the elderly took medication belonging to 5 or more different ATC groups. The most prevalent were psycholeptic (53%), antiacid (53%) and antithrombotic (47%) drugs.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

Allostatic load as a marker of cumulative biological risk: MacArthur studies of successful aging

Allostatic load (AL) has been proposed as a new conceptualization of cumulative biological burden exacted on the body through attempts to adapt to life's demands. Using a multisystem summary measure of AL, we evaluated its capacity to predict four categories of health outcomes, 7 years after a baseline survey of 1,189 men and women age 70–79. Higher baseline AL scores were associated with significantly increased risk for 7-year mortality as well as declines in cognitive and physical functioning and were marginally associated with incident cardiovascular disease events, independent of standard socio-demographic characteristics and baseline health status. The summary AL measure was based on 10 parameters of biological functioning, four of which are primary mediators in the cascade from perceived challenges to downstream health outcomes. Six of the components are secondary mediators reflecting primarily components of the metabolic syndrome (syndrome X). AL was a better predictor of mortality and decline in physical functioning than either the syndrome X or primary mediator components alone. The findings support the concept of AL as a measure of cumulative biological burden.

Comprehensive Validation Of A Measure Of Student School Engagement: A Pilot Study Of Middle School Students

Although it may sound reasonable that American education continues to be more effective at sending high school students to college, in a study conducted in 2009, The Council of the Great City Schools states that "slightly more than half of entering ninth grade students arrive performing below grade level in reading and math, while one in five entering ninth grade students is more than two years behind grade level...[and] 25% received support in the form of remedial literacy instruction or interventions" (Council of the Great City Schools, 2009). Students are distracted with technology (Lei & Zhao, 2005), family (Xu & Corno, 2003), medical illnesses (Nielson, 2009), learning disabilities and perhaps the most detrimental to academic success, the very lack of interest in school (Ruch, 1963). In a Johns Hopkins research study, Building a Graduation Nation - Colorado (Balfanz, 2008), warning signs were apparent years before the student dropped out of high school. The ninth grade was often referenced as a critical point that indicated success or failure to graduate high school. The research conducted by Johns Hopkins illustrates the problem: students who become disengaged from school have a much greater chance of dropping out of high school and not graduating. The first purpose of this study was to compare different measurement models of the Student School Engagement (SSE) using Factor Analysis to verify model fit with student engagement. The second purpose was to determine the extent to which the SSE instrument measures student school engagement by investigating convergent validity (via the SSE and Appleton, Christenson, Kim and Reschly's instrument and Fredricks, Blumenfeld, Friedel and Paris's instrument), discriminant validity (via Huebner's Student Life Satisfaction Survey) and criterion-related validity (via the sub-latent variables of Aspirations, Belonging and Productivity and student outcome measures such as achievement, attendance and discipline). Discriminant validity was established between the SSE and the Appleton, Christenson, Kim and Reschly's model and Fredricks, Blumenfeld, Friedel and Paris's (2005) Student Engagement Instruments (SEI). When confirming discriminant validity, the SSE's correlations were weak and statistically not significant, thus establishing discriminant validity with the SLSS. Criterion-related validity was established through structural equation modeling when the SSE was found to be a significant predictor of student outcome measures when both risk score and CSAP scores were used. The third purpose of this study was to assess the factorial invariance of the SSE instrument across gender to ensure the instrument is measuring the intended construct across different groups. Conclusively, configural, weak and metric invariances were established for the SSE as a non-significant change in chi-square indicating that all parameters including the error variances were invariant across groups of gender. Engagement is not a clearly defined psychological construct; it requires more research in order to fully comprehend its complexity. Hopefully, with parental and teacher involvement and a sense of community, student engagement can be nurtured to result in a meaningful attachment to school and academic success.

Expert Approaches to Mental Toughness Development in the High Risk Sport of Diving

Research focusing on mental toughness development and high risk sport is limited to one examination of elite gymnasts' perceptions. Coaches have acknowledged that mental toughness is important to performance success, while admitting they do not know effective development strategies. The aim of the current research is to address both these concerns by employing a grounded theory approach to ascertain elite diving coaches perceptions of mental toughness development and what mental toughness is. Seven diving coaches volunteered and were interviewed for an average of 49 minutes. They all coached an athlete that participated either in the world championships or Olympic games since 2008. Participants reported that mental toughness was the ability of a diver to perform a movement in a crucial moment that requires focus, extending beyond their comfort zone, overcoming fear, and never giving up. Mentaltoughness may not be the appropriate term due to its lack of multicultural sensitivity. Participants felt that dealing with adversity was something divers would have to constantly process. Mental toughness can be developed by the coach, the environment, or individual athlete. Unique attributes specific to divers were an awareness of self and a distinct level of knowing what the athlete was going to do. More research needs to be conducted to determine if these concepts can be generalized to other high risk sports. Future research could help establish a valid quantitative measure of mental toughness development.