Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. We find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results are robust to the chosen group of countries and the sample period. Key words: real GDP stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, CIPS test. JEL Classification: C23, E32

Schistosomiasis mansoni: follow-up of control program based on parasitologic and serologic methods in a Brazilian community of low endemicity

A field survey on schistosomiais was carried out in 1998, in the municipality of Pedro de Toledo, a low endemic area in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. According to the parasitologic Kato-Katz method, the prevalence rate was 1.6%, with an infection intensity of 40.9 eggs per gram of stool. By the immunofluorescence test (IFT) for detection of IgG and IgM antibodies in the serum, IgG-IFT and IgM-IFT, respectively, prevalence indices of 33.2% and 33.5% were observed. To assess the impact of the schistosomiasis control program in the area, parasitologic and serologic data obtained in 1998, analyzed according to the age, sex, and residence zone, were compared to previous data obtained in a epidemiologic study carried out in 1980, when prevalence indices were of 22.8% and 55.5%, respectively by Kato-Katz and IgG-IFT. A significant fall of the prevalence was observed, indicating that the control measures were effective. Nonetheless, residual transmission was observed, demonstrating the need for a joint effort to include new approaches for better understanding the real situation and improving the control of the disease in low endemic areas.

Rapid Diagnostic Test-Based Management of Malaria: An Effectiveness Study in Papua New Guinean Infants With Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

Background. In malaria-endemic areas it is recommended that febrile children be tested for malaria by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or blood slide (BS) and receive effective malaria treatment only if results are positive. However, RDTs are known to perform less well for Plasmodium vivax. We evaluated the safety of withholding antimalarial drugs from young Papua New Guinean children with negative RDT results in areas with high levels of both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. Methods. longitudinal prospective study of children aged 3-27 months visiting outpatient clinics for fever. RDT was administered at first visit. RDT and microscopy were performed if children returned because of persistent symptoms. Outcomes were rates of reattendance and occurrence of severe illnesses. Results. Of 5670 febrile episodes, 3942 (70%) involved a negative RDT result. In 133 cases (3.4%), the children reattended the clinic within 7 days for fever, of whom 29 (0.7%) were parasitemic by RDT or microscopy. Of children who reattended, 24 (0.7%) presented with a severe illness: 2 had lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) with low-density P. vivax on BS; 2 received a diagnosis of P. vivax malaria on the basis of RDT but BSs were negative; 16 had LRTIs; 3 had alternative diagnoses. Of these 24, 22 were cured at day 28. Two children died of illnesses other than malaria and were RDT and BS negative at the initial and subsequent visits. Conclusion. Treatment for malaria based on RDT results is safe and feasible even in infants living in areas with moderate to high endemicity for both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections.

Testing advances in molecular discrimination among Chinook salmon life histories: evidence from a blind test.

The application of DNA-based markers toward the task of discriminating among alternate salmon runs has evolved in accordance with ongoing genomic developments and increasingly has enabled resolution of which genetic markers associate with important life-history differences. Accurate and efficient identification of the most likely origin for salmon encountered during ocean fisheries, or at salvage from fresh water diversion and monitoring facilities, has far-reaching consequences for improving measures for management, restoration and conservation. Near-real-time provision of high-resolution identity information enables prompt response to changes in encounter rates. We thus continue to develop new tools to provide the greatest statistical power for run identification. As a proof of concept for genetic identification improvements, we conducted simulation and blind tests for 623 known-origin Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to compare and contrast the accuracy of different population sampling baselines and microsatellite loci panels. This test included 35 microsatellite loci (1266 alleles), some known to be associated with specific coding regions of functional significance, such as the circadian rhythm cryptochrome genes, and others not known to be associated with any functional importance. The identification of fall run with unprecedented accuracy was demonstrated. Overall, the top performing panel and baseline (HMSC21) were predicted to have a success rate of 98%, but the blind-test success rate was 84%. Findings for bias or non-bias are discussed to target primary areas for further research and resolution.

A flow cytometry based oligotrophic pollutant exposure test to detect bacterial growth inhibition and cell injury.

Toxicity of chemical pollutants in aquatic environments is often addressed by assays that inquire reproductive inhibition of test microorganisms, such as algae or bacteria. Those tests, however, assess growth of populations as a whole via macroscopic methods such as culture turbidity or colony-forming units. Here we use flow cytometry to interrogate the fate of individual cells in low-density populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SV3 exposed or not under oligotrophic conditions to a number of common pollutants, some of which derive from oil contamination. Cells were stained at regular time intervals during the exposure assay with fluorescent dyes that detect membrane injury (i.e., live-dead assay). Reduction of population growth rates was observed upon toxicant insult and depended on the type of toxicant. Modeling and cell staining indicate that population growth rate decrease is a combined effect of an increased number of injured cells that may or may not multiply, and live cells dividing at normal growth rates. The oligotrophic assay concept presented here could be a useful complement for existing biomarker assays in compliance with new regulations on chemical effect studies or, more specifically, for judging recovery after exposure to fluctuating toxicant conditions.

Cooperation in centralised CATI Household Panel Surveys : A Contact-based Multilevel Analysis to Examine Interviewer, Respondent, and Fieldwork Process Effects

In this research, we analyse the contact-specific mean of the final cooperation probability, distinguishing on the one hand between contacts with household reference persons and with other eligible household members, and on the other hand between first and later contacts. Data comes from two Swiss Household Panel surveys. The interviewer-specific variance is higher for first contacts, especially in the case of the reference person. For later contacts with the reference person, the contact-specific variance dominates. This means that interaction effects and situational factors are decisive. The contact number has negative effects on the performance of contacts with the reference person, positive in the case of other persons. Also time elapsed since the previous contact has negative effects in the case of reference persons. The result of the previous contact has strong effects, especially in the case of the reference person. These findings call for a quick completion of the household grid questionnaire, assigning the best interviewers to conducting the first contact. While obtaining refusals has negative effects, obtaining other contact results has only weak effects on the interviewer's subsequent contact outcome. Using the same interviewer for contacts has no positive effects.

Specificity of the rapid rK39 antigen-based immunochromatographic test Kalazar Detect(r) in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil

The aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity of a rapid immunochromatographic test that was developed to detect antibodies against the rK39 antigen for the diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). This evaluation was performed using sera from patients with a confirmed diagnosis of active cutaneous leishmaniasis. The sera from 272 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of localised cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) who resided in an area endemic for Leishmania braziliensis in Brazil were obtained before the initiation of antileishmanial treatment. Kalazar Detect(r)(InBios, Seattle, WA) recombinant K39 antigen-based immunochromatographic strips were used according to the manufacturer's instructions. The test results were evaluated independently by two examiners in sequential order. The positive controls for the test included five serum samples from five patients with parasitologically confirmed diagnosis of VL caused by Leishmania infantum in Brazil. Overall, 100% of the samples obtained from patients with CL were negative, confirming the absence of a serological cross-reaction for individuals with cutaneous disease when these patients were evaluated using the rapid test. The lack of a cross-reaction in patients who were infected by parasites of the same genus highlights the specificity of the rK39 antigen for the diagnosis of VL in areas with the sympatric circulation of L. braziliensis and L. infantum.

Field testing of arsenic in groundwater samples of Bangladesh using a test kit based on lyophilized bioreporter bacteria.

A test kit based on living, lyophilized bacterial bioreporters emitting bioluminescence as a response to arsenite and arsenate was applied during a field campaign in six villages across Bangladesh. Bioreporter field measurements of arsenic in groundwater from tube wells were in satisfying agreement with the results of spectroscopic analyses of the same samples conducted in the lab. The practicability of the bioreporter test in terms of logistics and material requirements, suitability for high sample throughput, and waste disposal was much better than that of two commercial chemical test kits that were included as references. The campaigns furthermore demonstrated large local heterogeneity of arsenic in groundwater, underscoring the use of well switching as an effective remedy to avoid high arsenic exposure.

Appropriate therapy for fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary expert panel - EPACT II

Introduction: Many therapeutic decisions in the management of fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease (CD) have to be taken without the benefit of strong scientific evidence. For this reason, explicit appropriateness criteria for CD fistula and stenosis treatment were developed by a multidisciplinary European expert panel in 2004 with the aim of making them easily available on the Internet and thus allowing individual case scenario evaluation; these criteria were updated in 2007. Methods: Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007. Explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, were rated on a 9-point scale based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). Results: Overall, panelists rated 60 indications pertaining to fistulas. Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for simple and complex fistulas. In the event of previous failure of azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate and infliximab were considered appropriate for complex fistulas. The panel also rated 72 indications related to the management of fibrostenotic CD. The experts considered balloon dilation, if the stricture was endoscopically accessible, stricturoplasty and bowel resection to be appropriate for small bowel fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, and balloon dilation and bowel resection appropriate for fibrostenotic colonic disease. In the presence of an ileocolonic or ileorectal anastomotic stricture of <7 cm, endoscopic balloon dilation, and bowel resection were considered appropriate. Conclusion: Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease. Infliximab is a therapeutic option in patients without prior response to immunosuppressant therapy. In fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, endoscopic balloon dilation, if feasible, or surgical therapy should be considered. These expert recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). Prospective evaluation is now needed to test the validity of these appropriateness criteria in clinical practice. (C) 2009 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Appropriate therapy for fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel (EPACT II)

Introduction Many therapeutic decisions in the management of fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease (CD) have to be taken without the benefit of strong scientific evidence. For this reason, explicit appropriateness criteria for CD fistula and stenosis treatment were developed by a multidisciplinary European expert panel in 2004 with the aim of making them easily available on the Internet and thus allowing individual case scenario evaluation; these criteria were updated in 2007. Methods Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007. Explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, were rated on a 9-point scale based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). Results Overall, panelists rated 60 indications pertaining to fistulas. Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for simple and complex fistulas. In the event of previous failure of azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate and infliximab were considered appropriate for complex fistulas. The panel also rated 72 indications related to the management of fibrostenotic CD. The experts considered balloon dilation, if the stricture was endoscopically accessible, stricturoplasty and bowel resection to be appropriate for small bowel fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, and balloon dilation and bowel resection appropriate for fibrostenotic colonic disease. In the presence of an ileocolonic or ileorectal anastomotic stricture of <7 cm, endoscopic balloon dilation, and bowel resection were considered appropriate. Conclusion Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease. Infliximab is a therapeutic option in patients without prior response to immunosuppressant therapy. In fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, endoscopic balloon dilation, if feasible, or surgical therapy should be considered. These expert recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). Prospective evaluation is now needed to test the validity of these appropriateness criteria in clinical practice.

Discriminant validity and test-retest reliability of a self-administered Internet-based questionnaire testing doctors' knowledge in evidence-based medicine.

Aims and objectives  This study aimed to determine the discriminant validity and the test-retest reliability of a questionnaire testing the impact of evidence-based medicine (EBM) training on doctors' knowledge and skills. Methods  Questionnaires were sent electronically to all doctors working as residents and chief residents in two French speaking hospital networks in Switzerland. Participants completed the questionnaire twice, within a 4-week interval. The discriminant validity was examined in comparing doctors' performance according to their reported EBM previous training. Proportion of agreement between both sessions of the questionnaire, Cohen's kappa and 'uniform kappa' determined its test-retest reliability. Results  The participation rate was 9.8%/7.1% to first/second session. Performance increased according to the level of doctors' previous training in EBM. The observed proportion of agreement between both sessions was over 70% for 14/19 questions, and the 'uniform kappa' was superior to 0.60 for 15/19 questions. Conclusion  The discriminant validity and test-retest reliability of the questionnaire were satisfying. The low participation rate did not prevent the study from achieving its aims.

Reliability of panel-based guidelines for colonoscopy: an international comparison.

BACKGROUND: This study examined the reliability of explicit guidelines developed using the RAND-UCLA appropriateness method. METHODS: The appropriateness of over 400 indications for colonoscopy was rated by two multispecialty expert panels (United States and Switzerland). A nine-point scale was used, which was consolidated into three categories of appropriateness: appropriate, uncertain, inappropriate. The distribution of appropriateness ratings between the two panels and the intrapanel and interpanel agreement for categories of appropriateness were calculated for all possible indications. Similar statistics were calculated for a series of 577 primary care patients referred for colonoscopy in Switzerland. RESULTS: Over 80% of all indications (348) could be directly compared. The proportions of indications classified as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate were 28.4%, 24.7%, 46.6% and 33.0%, 23.0%, 44.0% for the U.S. and the Swiss panels, respectively. Interpanel agreement was excellent for all the possible indications (kappa value: 0.75) and lower for actual cases (kappa value: 0.51) because of lower agreement for the most frequently encountered indications. CONCLUSIONS: Good agreement between the two sets of criteria was found, pointing to the reliability of the method. Partial disagreement occurred essentially for a few, albeit frequently encountered, indications for use of colonoscopy in cases of uncomplicated lower abdominal pain or constipation.

A new blood-based screening test for colorectal cancer: a pilot study

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) can be cured when diagnosed in its early or precancerous (adenoma) stages. Mostly due to poor compliance towards invasive screening procedures, detection rates for adenoma and early CRCs are still low. Available non-invasive screening tests have unfortunately low sensitivity and specificity performances. Therefore, there is a large unmet need calling for a cost-effective, reliable and non-invasive test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Objective: To develop a routine screening test based on a nucleic acids multi-gene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) that can detect early CRCs and adenomas. Methods: 116 patients (mean age: 55 years; range: 18 to 74 years; female/male ration 0.98) were included in this pilot, nonblinded, colonoscopy-controlled study. Colonoscopy revealed 21 patients with CRC, 30 patients with adenoma bigger than 1 cm, 24 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and 41 patients had no neoplastic or inflammatory lesions. Blood samples were taken from each patient the day of the colonoscopy and PBMCs were purified. Total RNA was extracted following standard procedures. Multiplex RT-qPCR was applied on 92 different candidate biomarkers. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on these candidates, and among them, 57 biomarkers with significant p values (<0.01, Wilcoxon test) were selected, including ADAMTS1, MMP9, CXCL10, CXCR4, VEGFA and CDH1. Two distinct biomarker signatures are used to separate patients without neoplastic lesion from those with cancer (named COLOX 1 test), respectively from those with adenoma (named COLOX 2 test). Result: COLOX 1 and 2 tests have successfully separated patients without neoplastic lesion from those with CRC (sensitivity 70%, specificity 90%, AUC 0.88), respectively from those with adenoma bigger than 1cm (sensitivity 61%, specificity 80%, AUC 0.80). 6/24 patients in the IBD group have a positive COLOX 1 test. Conclusion: These two COLOX tests demonstrated an acceptable sensitivity and a high specificity to detect the presence of CRCs and adenomas bigger than 1 cm. The false positives COLOX 1 test in IBD patients could possibly be due to the chronic inflammatory state. A prospective, multicenter, pivotal study is underway in order to confirm these promising results in a larger cohort.

Performance of panel-based criteria to evaluate the appropriateness of colonoscopy: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective data describing the appropriateness of use of colonoscopy based on detailed panel-based clinical criteria are not available. METHODS: In a cohort of 553 consecutive patients referred for colonoscopy to two university-based Swiss outpatient clinics, the percentage of patients who underwent colonoscopy for appropriate, equivocal, and inappropriate indications and the relationship between appropriateness of use and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was prospectively assessed. This assessment was based on criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy and explicit American and Swiss criteria developed in 1994 by a formal panel process using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method. RESULTS: The procedures were rated appropriate or equivocal in 72.2% by criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, in 68.5% by explicit American criteria, and in 74.4% by explicit Swiss criteria (not statistically significant, NS). Inappropriate use (overuse) of colonoscopy was found in 27.8%, 31.5%, and 25.6%, respectively (NS). The proportion of appropriate procedures was higher with increasing age. Almost all reasons for using colonoscopy could be assessed by the two explicit criteria sets, whereas 28.4% of reasons for using colonoscopy could not be evaluated by the criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (p < 0.0001). The probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion was distinctly higher in the procedures rated appropriate or equivocal than in procedures judged inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of inappropriate use of colonoscopy is substantial in Switzerland. Explicit criteria allow assessment of almost all indications encountered in clinical practice. In this study, all sets of appropriateness criteria significantly enhanced the probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion during colonoscopy.