On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

Director of Public Health annual report 2012 and core tables 2011

Improving the health and wellbeing of the elderly is the theme of the fourth Director of Public Health annual report, launched on 12 June 2013. Northern Ireland's elderly population is growing and older people are living longer than ever before, which emphasises the importance of providing health and social care that allows them to live a productive life.This report highlights the many areas of public health work aimed at giving elderly people in Northern Ireland the best opportunity to live active and healthy lives in a safe and secure environment. An in-depth overview also provides statistics on many aspects of life as an elderly person here - life expectancy, mortality, mental wellbeing, lifestyle, social determinants of health etc. Further, more detailed, data is included in an accompanying report available�as a separate document.��The core tables for 2011, also available to download below, include information such as estimated home population figures and projections, birth rates, fertility rates, death rates, information on mortality, life expectancy, immunisation rates and screening uptake rates.The presentation slides from key speakers from the launch event on 12 June 2013 and all parallel sessions are also appended below.�Please note:�The PHA cannot be held responsible for any breach of copyright that may exist within individual presentations.Anyone wishing to get a copy of the presentation by Ron McDowell�in the 'Identifying those at risk' category should contact him directly at mcdowell-R3@email.ulster.ac.uk

Neuropathie optique rétrobulbaire post-actinique [Post-actinic retrobulbar optic neuropathy]

BACKGROUND: Radiation optic neuropathy (RON) is a rare, unpredictable, late complication of radiotherapy secondary to obliterative endarteritis. Tumor recurrence has to be ruled out by a clinical and neuroradiological examination. METHODS: Five patients with RON were investigated by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) during 1992. RESULTS: Radiation-induced lesions of the intracranial visual pathways were easily visible on MRI. Without Gadolinium, a sectorial swelling was detectable, which markedly enhanced with Gadolinium. Intracranial optic nerve was affected in 5/5 cases, optic chiasm in 3/5 cases, and optic tract in 2/5 cases. CONCLUSIONS: MRI is the examination of choice when RON is suspected: it will easily delineate the extent of the lesion, and compression/infiltration by a recurrent tumor will be formally ruled out. A segmental swelling of visual pathway with marked Gadolinium enhancement on MRI is highly suggestive of radionecrosis.

Kunnostusojitusvaihtoehtojen vesistövaikutusten asiantuntija-avusteinen arviointi ja liittäminen päätösanalyysiin

Summary: Assessing the impacts of ditch network maintenance on water ecosystems onthe basis of expert knowledge and integrating the assessments into decision analysis

Iron Supplementation Therapy in a Large Swiss Cohort of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: Shift from Oral to Intravenous Therapy over Time

Background a nd A ims: T he 2 007 ECCO g uidelines o nanemia in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) favour intravenous(iv) over oral (po) i ron supplementation due to bettereffectiveness and tolerance. Application of guidelines in clinicalpractice m ay r equire time. We a imed to determine thepercentage of IBD patients under iron supplementation therapyand its application mode over time in a large IBD cohort.Methods: Helsana, a leading Swiss health insurance companyprovides c overage f or approximately 18% of t he Swisspopulation, corresponding to about 1.2 million enrollees.Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC)were identified b y keyword search from t he a nonymisedHelsana database.Results: I n total, 6 29 CD ( 61% female) a nd 4 03 UC ( 56%female) patients w ere identified, mean retrospectiveobservation time w as 2 0.4 m onths f or CD and 13 m onths f orUC patients. Of t he entire study population, 29.3% wereprescribed iron. O ccurrence of iron prescription was 21.3% inmales a nd 31.2% in f emales ( odds r atio [OR] 1 .69, 95%-confidence interval [CI] 1.26-2.28). The prescription of iv i ronincreased from 2006/2007 ( 48.8% w ith iv i ron) to 2 008/2009(65.2% with iv iron) by a factor of 1.89.Conclusions: One third of the IBD population was treated withiron supplementation. A gradual s hift from oral t o iv iron wasobserved over time in a large Swiss IBD cohort. This switch inprescription habits g oes a long with the implementation of theECCO consensus guidelines on anemia in IBD.

FDNY Facing Future Challenges with ICS

View of Ground Zero showing destroyed buildings and those with major structural damage (viewed from southwest).

La generatividad en la vejez y su relación con el bienestar: ¿Quién más contribuye es quien más se beneficia?

El objetivo de la investigación fue la adaptación al español de las escalas de interés y comportamientos generativos de McAdams, así co-mo el estudio de la generatividad en la vejez y su relación con el bienestar. La muestra estuvo compuesta por 165 voluntarios mayores de 65 años que, además de las versiones españolas de las escalas de generatividad, completa-ron instrumentos para evaluar satisfacción con la vida y orientación al futu-ro. Los resultados indicaron que la fiabilidad de las versiones españolas de las escalas de generatividad fue aceptable y similar a las originales en inglés. Mientras el interés generativo se relacionó con la satisfacción con la vida, los comportamientos generativos no lo hicieron. Sin embargo, ambas esca-las sí se relacionaron con la orientación al futuro, aunque esta relación no se confirmó en un análisis multivariable. Los resultados resaltan la importancia de la generatividad en la vejez y de distinguir entre interés y acción generati-va, ya que sus beneficios podrían ser muy diferentes.