LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E), East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP). Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model’s performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m) and over the average lake depth (240 m), since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Tree-ring-reconstructed summer temperatures from northwestern North America during the last nine centuries

Northwestern North America has one of the highest rates of recent temperature increase in the world, but the putative “divergence problem” in dendroclimatology potentially limits the ability of tree-ring proxy data at high latitudes to provide long-term context for current anthropogenic change. Here, summer temperatures are reconstructed from a Picea glauca maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology that shows a stable relationship to regional temperatures and spans most of the last millennium at the Firth River in northeastern Alaska. The warmest epoch in the last nine centuries is estimated to have occurred during the late twentieth century, with average temperatures over the last 30 yr of the reconstruction developed for this study [1973–2002 in the Common Era (CE)] approximately 1.3° ± 0.4°C warmer than the long-term preindustrial mean (1100–1850 CE), a change associated with rapid increases in greenhouse gases. Prior to the late twentieth century, multidecadal temperature fluctuations covary broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing. The findings presented here emphasize that tree-ring proxies can provide reliable indicators of temperature variability even in a rapidly warming climate.

Recent Increase in Black Carbon Concentrations from a Mt. Everest Ice Core Spanning 1860-2000 AD

A Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860-2000 AD and analyzed at high resolution for black carbon (BC) using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) demonstrates strong seasonality, with peak concentrations during the winter-spring, and low concentrations during the summer monsoon season. BC concentrations from 1975-2000 relative to 1860-1975 have increased approximately threefold, indicating that BC from anthropogenic sources is being transported to high elevation regions of the Himalaya. The timing of the increase in BC is consistent with BC emission inventory data from South Asia and the Middle East, however since 1990 the ice core BC record does not indicate continually increasing BC concentrations. The Everest BC and dust records provide information about absorbing impurities that can contribute to glacier melt by reducing the albedo of snow and ice. There is no increasing trend in dust concentrations since 1860, and estimated surface radiative forcing due to BC in snow exceeds that of dust in snow. This suggests that a reduction in BC emissions may be an effective means to reduce the effect of absorbing impurities on snow albedo and melt, which affects Himalayan glaciers and the availability of water resources in major Asian rivers. Citation: Kaspari, S. D., M. Schwikowski, M. Gysel, M. G. Flanner, S. Kang, S. Hou, and P. A. Mayewski (2011), Recent increase in black carbon concentrations from a Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860-2000 AD, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04703, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046096.

Monsoonal Circulation of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Ross Sea Region, Antarctica: Signal from the Snow Chemistry

McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV, Ross Sea region, Antarctica) precipitation exhibits extreme seasonality in ion concentration, 3-5 orders of magnitude between summer and winter precipitation. To identify aerosol sources and investigate causes for the observed amplitude in concentration variability, four snow pits were sampled along a coast-Polar Plateau transect across the MDV. The elevation of the sites ranges from 50 to 2400 m and the distance from the coast from 8 to 93 km. Average chemistry gradients along the transect indicate that most species have either a predominant marine or terrestrial source in the MDV. Empirical orthogonal function analysis on the snow-chemistry time series shows that at least 57% of aerosol deposition occurs concurrently. A conceptual climate model, based on meteorological observations, is used to explain the strong seasonality in the MDV. Our results suggest that radiative forcing of the ice-free valleys creates a surface low-pressure cell during summer which promotes air-mass flow from the Ross Sea. The associated precipitating air mass is relatively warm, humid and contains a high concentration of aerosols. During winter, the MDV are dominated by air masses draining off the East Antarctic ice sheet, that are characterized by cold, dry and low concentrations of aerosols. The strong differences between these two air-mass sources create in the MDV a polar version of the monsoonal flow, with humid, warm summers and dry, cold winters.

Ice Core Evidence for a Second Volcanic Eruption Around 1809 in the Northern Hemisphere

A volcanic signal observed in ice cores from both polar regions six years prior to Tambora is attributed to an unknown tropical eruption in 1809. Recovery of dacitic tephra from the 1809 horizon in a Yukon ice core ( Eclipse) that is chemically distinct from andesitic 1809 tephra found in Antarctic ice cores indicates a second eruption in the Northern Hemisphere at this time. Together with the similar magnitude and timing of the 1809 volcanic signal in the Arctic and Antarctic, this could suggest a large tropical eruption produced the sulfate and Antarctic tephra and a minor Northern Hemisphere eruption produced the Eclipse tephra. Nonetheless, the possibility that there were coincidental eruptions of similar magnitude in both hemispheres, rather than a single tropical eruption, should not be discounted. Correctly attributing the source of the 1809 volcanic signal has important implications for modeling the magnitude and latitudinal distribution of volcanic radiative forcing.

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period

The Younger Dryas cooling event disrupted the overall warming trend in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Climate change during the Younger Dryas was abrupt and thus provides insights into the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbations. The sudden Younger Dryas cooling has traditionally been attributed to a shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by meltwater discharges. However, alternative explanations such as strong negative radiative forcing14 and a shift in atmospheric circulation have also been offered. Here we investigate the importance of these different forcings in coupled climate model experiments constrained by data assimilation. We find that the Younger Dryas climate signal as registered in proxy evidence is best simulated using a combination of processes: a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation. We conclude that none of the individual mechanisms alone provide a plausible explanation for the Younger Dryas cold period. We suggest that the triggers for abrupt climate changes such as the Younger Dryas are more complex than suggested so far, and that studies on the response of the climate system to perturbations should account for this complexity.

Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions

Major volcanic eruptions generate widespread ocean cooling, which reduces upper ocean stratification. This effect has the potential to increase nutrient delivery into the euphotic zone and boost biological productivity. Using externally forced last millennium simulations of three climate/Earth System models (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Community Earth System Model (CESM), and LOch-Vecode-Ecbilt-CLio-agIsm Model (LOVECLIM)), we test the hypothesis that large volcanic eruptions intensify nutrient-driven export production. It is found that strong volcanic radiative forcing enhances the likelihood of eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming in CESM and LOVECLIM. This leads to an initial reduction of nutrients and export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, this initial response reverses after about 3 years in association with La Niña cooling. The resulting delayed enhancement of biological production resembles the multiyear response in MIROC. The model simulations show that volcanic impacts on tropical Pacific dynamics and biogeochemistry persist for several years, thus providing a new source for potential multiyear ecosystem predictability.

(Table 1) Boron-isotope measurements of shallow-dwelling planktonic foraminifera of ODP Holes 144-817A, 144-872C and 143-865C

Knowledge of the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Earth's history is important for a reconstruction of the links between climate and radiative forcing of the Earth's surface temperatures. Although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the early Cenozoic era (about 60 Myr ago) are widely believed to have been higher than at present, there is disagreement regarding the exact carbon dioxide levels, the timing of the decline and the mechanisms that are most important for the control of CO2 concentrations over geological timescales. Here we use the boron-isotope ratios of ancient planktonic foraminifer shells to estimate the pH of surface-layer sea water throughout the past 60 million years, which can be used to reconstruct atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago), and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial. Since the early Miocene (about 24 Myr ago), atmospheric CO2 concentrations appear to have remained below 500 p.p.m. and were more stable than before, although transient intervals of CO2 reduction may have occurred during periods of rapid cooling approximately 15 and 3 Myr ago.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, deuterium, and calculated Antarctic temperature of EPICA Dome C ice core

Understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 during past climate changes requires clear knowledge of how it varies in time relative to temperature. Antarctic ice cores preserve highly resolved records of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the past 800,000 years. Here we propose a revised relative age scale for the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the last deglacial warming, using data from five Antarctic ice cores. We infer the phasing between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature at four times when their trends change abruptly. We find no significant asynchrony between them, indicating that Antarctic temperature did not begin to rise hundreds of years before the concentration of atmospheric CO2, as has been suggested by earlier studies.

Optical depth of Atlantic dust as netCDF files

African dust outbreaks are the result of complex interactions between the land, atmosphere, and oceans, and only recently has a large body of work begun to emerge that aims to understand the controls on-and impacts of-African dust. At the same time, long-term records of dust outbreaks are either inferred from visibility data from weather stations or confined to a few in situ observational sites. Satellites provide the best opportunity for studying the large-scale characteristics of dust storms, but reliable records of dust are generally on the scale of a decade or less. Here the authors develop a simple model for using modern and historical data from meteorological satellites, in conjunction with a proxy record for atmospheric dust, to extend satellite-retrieved dust optical depth over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean from 1955 to 2008. The resultant 54-yr record of dust has a spatial resolution of 1° and a monthly temporal resolution. From analysis of the historical dust data, monthly tropical northern Atlantic dust cover is bimodal, has a strong annual cycle, peaked in the early 1980s, and shows minimums in dustiness during the beginning and end of the record. These dust optical depth estimates are used to calculate radiative forcing and heating rates from the surface through the top of the atmosphere over the last half century. Radiative transfer simulations show a large net negative dust forcing from the surface through the top of the atmosphere, also with a distinct annual cycle, and mean tropical Atlantic monthly values of the surface forcing range from -3 to -9 W/m**2. Since the surface forcing is roughly a factor of 3 larger in magnitude than the top-of-the-atmosphere forcing, there is also a positive heating rate of the midtroposphere by dust.

Heat fluxes and surface radiation measurements from Samoylov Island, Lena Delta, Siberia, April to September 2007

In this article, we present a study on the surface energy balance of a polygonal tundra landscape in northeast Siberia. The study was performed during half-year periods from April to September in each of 2007 and 2008. The surface energy balance is obtained from independent measurements of the net radiation, the turbulent heat fluxes, and the ground heat flux at several sites. Short-wave radiation is the dominant factor controlling the magnitude of all the other components of the surface energy balance during the entire observation period. About 50% of the available net radiation is consumed by the latent heat flux, while the sensible and the ground heat flux are each around 20 to 30%. The ground heat flux is mainly consumed by active layer thawing. About 60% of the energy storage in the ground is attributed to the phase change of soil water. The remainder is used for soil warming down to a depth of 15 m. In particular, the controlling factors for the surface energy partitioning are snow cover, cloud cover, and the temperature gradient in the soil. The thin snow cover melts within a few days, during which the equivalent of about 20% of the snow-water evaporates or sublimates. Surface temperature differences of the heterogeneous landscape indicate spatial variabilities of sensible and latent heat fluxes, which are verified by measurements. However, spatial differences in the partitioning between sensible and latent heat flux are only measured during conditions of high radiative forcing, which only occur occasionally.

Ice rafted debris and reconstructed sea surface temperature of ODP Hole 104-642B

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) of the Pliocene epoch has been proposed as a possible reference for future warm climate states. However, there is significant disagreement over the magnitude of high latitude warming between data and models for this period of time, raising questions about the driving mechanisms and responsible feedbacks. We have developed a new set of orbital-resolution alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) and ice rafted debris (IRD) records from the Norwegian Sea spanning 3.264-3.14 Ma. The SSTs in the Norwegian Sea were 2-3?°C warmer than the Holocene average, likely caused by the radiative effect of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There is notable obliquity-driven SST variability with a range of 4?°C, shown by evolutive spectra. The correlation of SST variability with the presence of IRD suggests a common climate forcing acting across the Nordic Seas region. Changes of the SST gradient between the Norwegian Sea and North Atlantic sites suggest that the subpolar gyre was at least as strong as during the Holocene, and that the northward heat transport by the North Atlantic Current was comparable.