Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Monte Carlo Modeling of Micro Scale Gas Flows

An information preservation (IP) method has been used to simulate many micro scale gas flows. It may efficiently reduce the statistical scatter inherent in conventional particle approaches such as the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. This paper reviews applications of IP to some benchmark problems. Comparison of the IP results with those given by experiment, DSMC, and the linearized Boltzmann equation, as well as the Navier-Stokes equations with a slip boundary condition, and the lattice Boltzmann equation, shows that the IP method is applicable to micro scale gas flows over the entire flow regime from continuum to free molecular.

Development of a Cell Size Relaxed Scheme for the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Method

The conventional direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method has a strong restriction on the cell size because simulated particles are selected randomly within the cell for collisions. Cells with size larger than the molecular mean free path are generally not allowed in correct DSMC simulations. However, the cell-size induced numerical error can be controlled if the gradients of flow properties are properly involved during collisions. In this study, a large cell DSMC scheme is proposed to relax the cell size restriction. The scheme is applied to simulate several test problems and promising results are obtained even when the cell size is greater than 10 mean free paths of gas molecules. However, it is still necessary, of course, that the cell size be small with respect to the flow field structures that must be resolved.