Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Quadratic tranverse anisotropy term due to dislocations in Mn12 acetate crystals directly observed by EPR spectroscopy

High-sensitivity electron paramagnetic resonance experiments have been carried out in fresh and stressed Mn12 acetate single crystals for frequencies ranging from 40 GHz up to 110 GHz. The high number of crystal dislocations formed in the stressing process introduces a E(Sx2-Sy2) transverse anisotropy term in the spin Hamiltonian. From the behavior of the resonant absorptions on the applied transverse magnetic field we have obtained an average value for E=22 mK, corresponding to a concentration of dislocations per unit cell of c=10-3.

Improving Offender Programming, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, June 2012

In 2008, the Iowa Department of Corrections embarked on a comprehensive audit of all institutional andcommunity corrections offender programs that receive corrections funding. The audit focused on the degree towhich each program adheres to evidence-based practices principles (what works best). The audit areas are listedbelow along with some examples of the questions asked about each program:

New Violence Risk Assessment Aids Parole and Offender Programming Decisions, Data Download, Department of Corrections

In recent years, the Department of Corrections has made major strides in assessing offenders’ risk to reoffend, particularly in measuring changes in that risk over time. Earlier this year, the DOC worked with the Board of Parole to develop a risk assessment that focuses on assessing offenders’ risk to commit violent crimes.

A bio-inspired agent-based programming environment for pervasive platforms

Abstract in English : Ubiquitous Computing is the emerging trend in computing systems. Based on this observation this thesis proposes an analysis of the hardware and environmental constraints that rule pervasive platforms. These constraints have a strong impact on the programming of such platforms. Therefore solutions are proposed to facilitate this programming both at the platform and node levels. The first contribution presented in this document proposes a combination of agentoriented programming with the principles of bio-inspiration (Phylogenesys, Ontogenesys and Epigenesys) to program pervasive platforms such as the PERvasive computing framework for modeling comPLEX virtually Unbounded Systems platform. The second contribution proposes a method to program efficiently parallelizable applications on each computing node of this platform. Résumé en Français : Basée sur le constat que les calculs ubiquitaires vont devenir le paradigme de programmation dans les années à venir, cette thèse propose une analyse des contraintes matérielles et environnementale auxquelles sont soumises les plateformes pervasives. Ces contraintes ayant un impact fort sur la programmation des plateformes. Des solutions sont donc proposées pour faciliter cette programmation tant au niveau de l'ensemble des noeuds qu'au niveau de chacun des noeuds de la plateforme. La première contribution présentée dans ce document propose d'utiliser une alliance de programmation orientée agent avec les grands principes de la bio-inspiration (Phylogénèse, Ontogénèse et Épigénèse). Ceci pour répondres aux contraintes de programmation de plateformes pervasives comme la plateforme PERvasive computing framework for modeling comPLEX virtually Unbounded Systems . La seconde contribution propose quant à elle une méthode permettant de programmer efficacement des applications parallélisable sur chaque noeud de calcul de la plateforme

La programmmation foetale de la dysfonction vasculaire pulmonaire chez la souris : rôle des mécanismes épigénétiques = Fetal programming of pulmonary vascular dysfunction in mice : role of epigenetic mechanisms

Rapport de synthèseDes événements pathologiques survenant pendant la période foetale prédisposent la descendance aux maladies cardiovasculaires systémiques. Il existe peu de connaissances au sujet de la circulation pulmonaire et encore moins quant aux mécanismes sous-jacents. La sous-alimentation maternelle pendant la grossesse peut représenter un modèle d'investigation de ces mécanismes, parce que chez l'animal et l'homme elle est associée à une dysfonction vasculaire systémique chez la progéniture. Chez le rat, la diète restrictive pendant la grossesse induit une augmentation du stress oxydatif dans le placenta. Les dérivés de l'oxygène sont connus pour induire des altérations épigénétiques et peuvent traverser la barrière placentaire. Nous avons dès lors spéculé que chez la souris la diète restrictive pendant la grossesse induit une dysfonction vasculaire pulmonaire chez sa progéniture qui serait liée à un mécanisme épigénétique.Pour tester cette hypothèse, nous avons examiné la fonction vasculaire pulmonaire et la méthylation de l'ADN pulmonaire à la fin de 2 semaines d'exposition à l'hypoxie chez la progéniture de souris soumises à une diète restrictive pendant la grossesse et des souris contrôles. Nous avons trouvé que la vasodilatation endothélium-dépendante de l'artère pulmonaire in vitro était défectueuse, et que l'hypertension pulmonaire et l'hypertrophie ventriculaire droite induites par l'hypoxie in vivo étaient exagérées chez la progéniture de souris soumises à une diète restrictive pendant la grossesse. Cette dysfonction vasculaire pulmonaire était associée avec une altération de la méthylation de l'ADN pulmonaire. L'administration d'inhibiteurs de la déacétylase des histones, le Butyrate et la Trichostatine-A à la progéniture de souris soumises à une diète restrictive pendant la grossesse a normalisé la méthylation de l'ADN et la fonction vasculaire pulmonaire. Finalement, l'administration du nitroxyde Tempol aux mères durant la diète restrictive pendant la grossesse a prévenu la dysfonction vasculaire et la dysméthylation chez la progéniture.Ces découvertes démontrent que chez la souris la sous-alimentation pendant la gestation induit une dysfonction vasculaire chez la progéniture qui est causée par un mécanisme épigénétique. Il est possible qu'un mécanisme similaire soit impliqué dans la programmation foetale de la dysfonction vasculaire chez les humains.

Programming of marginal zone B-cell fate by basic Kruppel-like factor (BKLF/KLF3).

Splenic marginal zone (MZ) B cells are a lineage distinct from follicular and peritoneal B1 B cells. They are located next to the marginal sinus where blood is released. Here they pick up antigens and shuttle the load onto follicular dendritic cells inside the follicle. On activation, MZ B cells rapidly differentiate into plasmablasts secreting antibodies, thereby mediating humoral immune responses against blood-borne type 2 T-independent antigens. As Krüppel-like factors are implicated in cell differentiation/function in various tissues, we studied the function of basic Krüppel-like factor (BKLF/KLF3) in B cells. Whereas B-cell development in the bone marrow of KLF3-transgenic mice was unaffected, MZ B-cell numbers in spleen were increased considerably. As revealed in chimeric mice, this occurred cell autonomously, increasing both MZ and peritoneal B1 B-cell subsets. Comparing KLF3-transgenic and nontransgenic follicular B cells by RNA-microarray revealed that KLF3 regulates a subset of genes that was similarly up-regulated/down-regulated on normal MZ B-cell differentiation. Indeed, KLF3 expression overcame the lack of MZ B cells caused by different genetic alterations, such as CD19-deficiency or blockade of B-cell activating factor-receptor signaling, indicating that KLF3 may complement alternative nuclear factor-κB signaling. Thus, KLF3 is a driving force toward MZ B-cell maturation.

Maximum likelihood Linear Programming Data Fusion for Speaker Recognition

Biometric system performance can be improved by means of data fusion. Several kinds of information can be fused in order to obtain a more accurate classification (identification or verification) of an input sample. In this paper we present a method for computing the weights in a weighted sum fusion for score combinations, by means of a likelihood model. The maximum likelihood estimation is set as a linear programming problem. The scores are derived from a GMM classifier working on a different feature extractor. Our experimental results assesed the robustness of the system in front a changes on time (different sessions) and robustness in front a change of microphone. The improvements obtained were significantly better (error bars of two standard deviations) than a uniform weighted sum or a uniform weighted product or the best single classifier. The proposed method scales computationaly with the number of scores to be fussioned as the simplex method for linear programming.

Hipertensión y edema pulmonar de altura. Rol de la disfunción endotelial y de la programación fetal [Pulmonary hypertension and lung edema at high altitude. Role of endothelial dysfunction and fetal programming].

High altitude constitutes an exciting natural laboratory for medical research. While initially, the aim of high-altitude research was to understand the adaptation of the organism to hypoxia and find treatments for altitude-related diseases, over the past decade or so, the scope of this research has broadened considerably. Two important observations led to the foundation for the broadening of the scientific scope of high-altitude research. First, high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE) represents a unique model which allows studying fundamental mechanisms of pulmonary hypertension and lung edema in humans. Secondly, the ambient hypoxia associated with high-altitude exposure facilitates the detection of pulmonary and systemic vascular dysfunction at an early stage. Here, we review studies that, by capitalizing on these observations, have led to the description of novel mechanisms underpinning lung edema and pulmonary hypertension and to the first direct demonstration of fetal programming of vascular dysfunction in humans.

Trust region versus line search for computing the optical flow

We consider the numerical treatment of the optical flow problem by evaluating the performance of the trust region method versus the line search method. To the best of our knowledge, the trust region method is studied here for the first time for variational optical flow computation. Four different optical flow models are used to test the performance of the proposed algorithm combining linear and nonlinear data terms with quadratic and TV regularization. We show that trust region often performs better than line search; especially in the presence of non-linearity and non-convexity in the model.

Sierpinski curve Julia sets for quadratic rational maps

We investigate under which dynamical conditions the Julia set of a quadratic rational map is a Sierpiński curve.

Smooth height/age curves from stem analysis with linear programming

[Abstract]

A performance lower bound for quadratic timing recovery accounting for the symbol transition density

The symbol transition density in a digitally modulated signal affects the performance of practical synchronization schemes designed for timing recovery. This paper focuses on the derivation of simple performance limits for the estimation of the time delay of a noisy linearly modulated signal in the presence of various degrees of symbol correlation produced by the varioustransition densities in the symbol streams. The paper develops high- and low-signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) approximations of the so-called (Gaussian) unconditional Cramér–Rao bound (UCRB),as well as general expressions that are applicable in all ranges of SNR. The derived bounds are valid only for the class of quadratic, non-data-aided (NDA) timing recovery schemes. To illustrate the validity of the derived bounds, they are compared with the actual performance achieved by some well-known quadratic NDA timing recovery schemes. The impact of the symbol transitiondensity on the classical threshold effect present in NDA timing recovery schemes is also analyzed. Previous work on performancebounds for timing recovery from various authors is generalized and unified in this contribution.