Predicting freeway pavement construction cost using a back-propagation neural network : a case study in Henan, China

The objective of this research was to develop a model to estimate future freeway pavement construction costs in Henan Province, China. A comprehensive set of factors contributing to the cost of freeway pavement construction were included in the model formulation. These factors comprehensively reflect the characteristics of region and topography and altitude variation, the cost of labour, material, and equipment, and time-related variables such as index numbers of labour prices, material prices and equipment prices. An Artificial Neural Network model using the Back-Propagation learning algorithm was developed to estimate the cost of freeway pavement construction. A total of 88 valid freeway cases were obtained from freeway construction projects let by the Henan Transportation Department during the period 1994−2007. Data from a random selection of 81 freeway cases were used to train the Neural Network model and the remaining data were used to test the performance of the Neural Network model. The tested model was used to predict freeway pavement construction costs in 2010 based on predictions of input values. In addition, this paper provides a suggested correction for the prediction of the value for the future freeway pavement construction costs. Since the change in future freeway pavement construction cost is affected by many factors, the predictions obtained by the proposed method, and therefore the model, will need to be tested once actual data are obtained.

Long time, no see?

Long Time, No See? is a crowd-sourced project that asks people to reflect upon what kind of long term future they would each like to promote. It is an evolving experiment in the social practice of ‘everyday futuring’. To participate download the Long Time, No See? IPhone APP that gently guides you during a short walk, encouraging you to experience new places, sensations and thoughts in your locality. At nine stages along that journey you donate ‘field notes’ as images, texts, sounds and ‘themes’, offering a unique opportunity to reveal possible pathways towards more sustaining futures. The APP records the shape of your walk on the ground and draws an island on the ‘map’ shown here, populated by your nine sets of responses. The themes you have chosen then connect your island into an evolving ‘world’ map of connections and possibilities, which you can then explore at your leisure. In these ways, Long Time, No See? doesn’t ask you for lofty visions or ask you to lay out a program of action, but instead asks you to consider what is around you today, steering your eyes, ears and embodied experiences towards new futures that demonstrate your ‘care’ for what comes after you. Please use the contribute tab below to learn how to add your voice! PARTICIPATE To contribute 1: Download the APP {bit.do/ltns}, iPhone/iPad is supported right now. 2: Register a ‘walker name’. 3: Take a leisurely walk (30 -60mins) and contribute image, text, sound and themes when asked. 4: Wait while we verify and upload your walk (allow about 24 hours) 5: View your contributions via your ‘walker name’ and discover how it relates to others, here at the Cube and at www.long-time-no-see.org. NB You can undertake each walk over more than one day if that suits. You may even drive, cycle or move by other modes. DOWNLOAD THE APP: bit.do/ltns (insert QI Code) FIND OUT MORE www.long-time-no-see.org

Matrix metalloproteinase-9 of tubular and macrophage origin contributes to the pathogenesis of renal fibrosis via macrophage recruitment through osteopontin cleavage

A pro-fibrotic role of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) in tubular cell epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is well established in renal fibrosis; however studies from our group and others have demonstrated some previously unrecognized complexity of MMP-9 that has been overlooked in renal fibrosis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the expression pattern, origin and the exact mechanism underlying the contribution of MMP-9 to unilateral ureteral obstruction (UUO), a well-established model of renal fibrosis via MMP-9 inhibition. Renal MMP-9 expression in BALB/c mice with UUO was examined on day 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 14. To inhibit MMP-9 activity, MMP-2/9 inhibitor or MMP-9-neutralizing antibody was administered daily for 4 consecutive days from day 0-3, 6-9 or 10-13 and tissues harvested at day 14. In UUO, there was a bi-phasic early- and late-stage upregulation of MMP-9 activity. Interestingly, tubular epithelial cells (TECs) were the predominant source of MMP-9 during early stage, whereas TECs, macrophages and myofibroblasts produced MMP-9 during late-stage UUO. Early- and late-stage inhibition of MMP-9 in UUO mice significantly reduced tubular cell EMT and renal fibrosis. Moreover, MMP-9 inhibition caused a significant reduction in MMP-9-cleaved osteopontin and macrophage infiltration in UUO kidney. Our in vitro study showed MMP-9-cleaved osteopontin enhanced macrophage transwell migration and MMP-9 of both primary TEC and macrophage induced tubular cell EMT. In summary, our result suggests that MMP-9 of both TEC and macrophage origin may directly or indirectly contribute to the pathogenesis of renal fibrosis via osteopontin cleavage, which, in turn further recruit macrophage and induce tubular cell EMT. Our study also highlights the time dependency of its expression and the potential of stage-specific inhibition strategy against renal fibrosis.

Lower partial moment and information entropy-based dynamic electricity purchasing strategy

In the electricity market environment, load-serving entities (LSEs) will inevitably face risks in purchasing electricity because there are a plethora of uncertainties involved. To maximize profits and minimize risks, LSEs need to develop an optimal strategy to reasonably allocate the purchased electricity amount in different electricity markets such as the spot market, bilateral contract market, and options market. Because risks originate from uncertainties, an approach is presented to address the risk evaluation problem by the combined use of the lower partial moment and information entropy (LPME). The lower partial moment is used to measure the amount and probability of the loss, whereas the information entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of the loss. Electricity purchasing is a repeated procedure; therefore, the model presented represents a dynamic strategy. Under the chance-constrained programming framework, the developed optimization model minimizes the risk of the electricity purchasing portfolio in different markets because the actual profit of the LSE concerned is not less than the specified target under a required confidence level. Then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to solve the optimization model. Finally, a sample example is used to illustrate the basic features of the developed model and method.

No genetic bottleneck in Plasmodium falciparum wild-type Pfcrt alleles reemerging in Hainan Island, China, following high-level chloroquine resistance

Chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum was highly prevalent in Hainan, China, in the 1970s. Twenty-five years after cessation of chloroquine therapy, the prevalence of P. falciparum wild-type Pfcrt alleles has risen to 36% (95% confidence interval, 22.1 to 52.4%). The diverse origins of wild-type alleles indicate that there was no genetic bottleneck caused by high chloroquine resistance.

Socio-demographic vulnerability to heatwave impacts in Brisbane, Australia : a time series analysis

Objective: Examining the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and heat-related emergency department (ED) visits during heatwave periods in Brisbane, 2000–2008. Methods: Data from 10 public EDs were analysed using a generalised additive model for disease categories, age groups and gender. Results: Cumulative relative risks (RR) for non-external causes other than cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were 1.11 and 1.05 in most and least disadvantaged areas, respectively. The pattern persisted on lags 0–2. Elevated risks were observed for all age groups above 15 years in all areas. However, with RRs of 1.19–1.28, the 65–74 years age group in more disadvantaged areas stood out, compared with RR=1.08 in less disadvantaged areas. This pattern was observed on lag 0 but did not persist. The RRs for male presentations were 1.10 and 1.04 in most and less disadvantaged areas; for females, RR was 1.04 in less disadvantaged areas. This pattern persisted across lags 0–2. Conclusions: Heat-related ED visits increased during heatwaves. However, due to overlapping confidence intervals, variations across socioeconomic areas should be interpreted cautiously. Implications: ED data may be utilised for monitoring heat-related health impacts, particularly on the first day of heatwaves, to facilitate prompt interventions and targeted resource allocation.

Modelling attitudes to climate change : an order effect and a test between alternatives

Quantum-like models can be fruitfully used to model attitude change in a social context. Next steps require data, and higher dimensional models. Here, we discuss an exploratory study that demonstrates an order effect when three question sets about Climate Beliefs, Political Affiliation and Attitudes Towards Science are presented in different orders within a larger study of n=533 subjects. A quantum-like model seems possible, and we propose a new experiment which could be used to test between three possible models for this scenario.

Meeting the nutrition challenge of stage 3 renal failure : considerations for nursing practice

Self-care management is needed for effective management of chronic kidney disease. The main aim for treatment or management of chronic kidney disease is to delay the worsening of kidney function, and to prevent or to manage the co-morbidities. Selfcare management is not easy, and patients will face many challenges, especially when they cannot get use to the new treatment plan. One of the challenges they face is dietary restriction, which is a very important aspect in any self-care management programme. Chronic kidney disease patients require a low-protein, low-sodium, low-potassium, and low-phosphorus diet. There are several strategies patients can undertake to ensure adherence, such as self-monitoring their dietary habits and type of food consumed using a food diary; involving social support, such as family members and spouse to help them to adhere to their diet restrictions; setting goals and providing positive reinforcement when they achieved the targeted goals; joining self-management programmes to equip themselves with the necessary skills so that they can better adhere to the treatment regimes, including diet restriction; and lastly, having the knowledge about their regime, and using this knowledge to help them understand and improve their adherence.

Transport and health in China : recent collaborative research relating to vehicle factors and pollution

The nature of the transport system contributes to public health outcomes in a range of ways. The clearest contribution to public health is in the area of traffic crashes, because of their direct impact on individual death and disability and their direct costs to the health system. Other papers in this conference address these issues. This paper outlines some collaborative research between the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q) at QUT and Chinese researchers in areas that have indirect health impacts. Heavy vehicle dynamics: The integrity of the road surface influences crash risk, with ruts, pot-holes and other forms of road damage contributing to increased crash risks. The great majority of damage to the road surface from vehicles is caused by heavy trucks and buses, rather than cars or smaller vehicles. In some cases this damage is due to deliberate overloading, but in other cases it is due to vehicle suspension characteristics that lead to occasional high loads on particular wheels. Together with a visiting researcher and his colleagues, we have used both Queensland and Chinese data to model vehicle suspension systems that reduce the level of load, and hence the level of road damage and resulting crash risk(1-5). Toll worker exposure to vehicle emissions: The increasing construction of highways in China has also involved construction of a large number of toll roads. Tollbooth workers are potentially exposed to high levels of pollutants from vehicles, however the extent of this exposure and how it relates to standards for exposure are not well known. In a study led by a visiting researcher, we conducted a study to model these levels of exposure for a tollbooth in China(6). Noise pollution: The increasing presence of high speed roads in China has contributed to an increase in noise levels. In this collaborative study we modelled noise levels associated with a freeway widening near a university campus, and measures to reduce the noise(7). Along with these areas of research, there are many other areas of transport with health implications that are worthy of exploration. Traffic, noise and pollution contribute to a difficult environment for pedestrians, especially in an ageing society where there are health benefits to increasing physical activity. By building on collaborations such as those outlined, there is potential for a contribution to improved public health by addressing transport issues such as vehicle factors and pollution, and extending the research to other areas of travel activity. 1. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2014). Stiffness-damping matching method of an ECAS system based on LQG control. Journal of Central South University, 21:439-446. DOI: 10.1007/s1177101419579 2. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Feng, Z. and Chang, W. (2013). Comparison of two suspension control strategies for multi-axle heavy truck. Journal of Central South University, 20(2): 550-562. 3. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Effect of driving conditions and suspension parameters on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Science China Technological Sciences, 56(3): 666-676. DOI: 10.1007/s11431-012-5091-3 4. Chen, Y., He., J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Model development and dynamic load-sharing analysis of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Strojniški Vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 59(1):14-24. 5. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Liu, H. and Zhang, W. (2013). Dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-1117. 6. He, J., Qi, Z., Hang, W., King, M., and Zhao, C. (2011). Numerical evaluation of pollutant dispersion at a toll plaza based on system dynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics models. Transportation Research Part C, 19(2011):510-520. 7. Zhang, C., He, J., Wang, Z., Yin, R. and King, M. (2013). Assessment of traffic noise level before and after freeway widening using traffic microsimulation and a refined classic noise prediction method. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-2016.

Conformational Spread in the Flagellar Motor Switch: A Model Study

The reliable response to weak biological signals requires that they be amplified with fidelity. In E. coli, the flagellar motors that control swimming can switch direction in response to very small changes in the concentration of the signaling protein CheY-P, but how this works is not well understood. A recently proposed allosteric model based on cooperative conformational spread in a ring of identical protomers seems promising as it is able to qualitatively reproduce switching, locked state behavior and Hill coefficient values measured for the rotary motor. In this paper we undertook a comprehensive simulation study to analyze the behavior of this model in detail and made predictions on three experimentally observable quantities: switch time distribution, locked state interval distribution, Hill coefficient of the switch response. We parameterized the model using experimental measurements, finding excellent agreement with published data on motor behavior. Analysis of the simulated switching dynamics revealed a mechanism for chemotactic ultrasensitivity, in which cooperativity is indispensable for realizing both coherent switching and effective amplification. These results showed how cells can combine elements of analog and digital control to produce switches that are simultaneously sensitive and reliable. © 2012 Ma et al.

Some comparison on whole-proteome phylogeny of large dsDNA viruses based on dynamical language approach and feature frequency profiles method

There has been a growing interest in alignment-free methods for phylogenetic analysis using complete genome data. Among them, CVTree method, feature frequency profiles method and dynamical language approach were used to investigate the whole-proteome phylogeny of large dsDNA viruses. Using the data set of large dsDNA viruses from Gao and Qi (BMC Evol. Biol. 2007), the phylogenetic results based on the CVTree method and the dynamical language approach were compared in Yu et al. (BMC Evol. Biol. 2010). In this paper, we first apply dynamical language approach to the data set of large dsDNA viruses from Wu et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2009) and compare our phylogenetic results with those based on the feature frequency profiles method. Then we construct the whole-proteome phylogeny of the larger dataset combining the above two data sets. According to the report of The International Committee on the Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV), the trees from our analyses are in good agreement to the latest classification of large dsDNA viruses.