Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Platelet signal transduction defect with Gα subunit dysfunction and diminished Gαq in a patient with abnormal platelet responses

G proteins play a major role in signal transduction upon platelet activation. We have previously reported a patient with impaired agonist-induced aggregation, secretion, arachidonate release, and Ca2+ mobilization. Present studies demonstrated that platelet phospholipase A2 (cytosolic and membrane) activity in the patient was normal. Receptor-mediated activation of glycoprotein (GP) IIb-IIIa complex measured by flow cytometry using antibody PAC-1 was diminished despite normal amounts of GPIIb-IIIa on platelets. Ca2+ release induced by guanosine 5′-[γ-thio]triphosphate (GTP[γS]) was diminished in the patient’s platelets, suggesting a defect distal to agonist receptors. GTPase activity (a function of α-subunit) in platelet membranes was normal in resting state but was diminished compared with normal subjects on stimulation with thrombin, platelet-activating factor, or the thromboxane A2 analog U46619. Binding of 35S-labeled GTP[γS] to platelet membranes was decreased under both basal and thrombin-stimulated states. Iloprost (a stable prostaglandin I2 analog) -induced rise in cAMP (mediated by Gαs) and its inhibition (mediated by Gαi) by thrombin in the patient’s platelet membranes were normal. Immunoblot analysis of Gα subunits in the patient’s platelet membranes showed a decrease in Gαq (<50%) but not Gαi, Gαz, Gα12, and Gα13. These studies provide evidence for a hitherto undescribed defect in human platelet G-protein α-subunit function leading to impaired platelet responses, and they provide further evidence for a major role of Gαq in thrombin-induced responses.

Guanine nucleotide exchange factor GEF115 specifically mediates activation of Rho and serum response factor by the G protein α subunit Gα13

Signal transduction pathways that mediate activation of serum response factor (SRF) by heterotrimeric G protein α subunits were characterized in transfection systems. Gαq, Gα12, and Gα13, but not Gαi, activate SRF through RhoA. When Gαq, α12, or α13 were coexpressed with a Rho-specific guanine nucleotide exchange factor GEF115, Gα13, but not Gαq or Gα12, showed synergistic activation of SRF with GEF115. The synergy between Gα13 and GEF115 depends on the N-terminal part of GEF115, and there was no synergistic effect between Gα13 and another Rho-specific exchange factor Lbc. In addition, the Dbl-homology (DH)-domain-deletion mutant of GEF115 inhibited Gα13- and Gα12-induced, but not GEF115 itself- or Gαq-induced, SRF activation. The DH-domain-deletion mutant also suppressed thrombin- and lysophosphatidic acid-induced SRF activation in NIH 3T3 cells, probably by inhibition of Gα12/13. The N-terminal part of GEF115 contains a sequence motif that is homologous to the regulator of G protein signaling (RGS) domain of RGS12. RGS12 can inhibit both Gα12 and Gα13. Thus, the inhibition of Gα12/13 by the DH-deletion mutant may be due to the RGS activity of the mutant. The synergism between Gα13 and GEF115 indicates that GEF115 mediates Gα13-induced activation of Rho and SRF.

Isolation of a brefeldin A-inhibited guanine nucleotide-exchange protein for ADP ribosylation factor (ARF) 1 and ARF3 that contains a Sec7-like domain

Brefeldin A (BFA) inhibited the exchange of ADP ribosylation factor (ARF)-bound GDP for GTP by a Golgi-associated guanine nucleotide-exchange protein (GEP) [Helms, J. B. & Rothman, J. E. (1992) Nature (London) 360, 352–354; Donaldson, J. G., Finazzi, D. & Klausner, R. D. (1992) Nature (London) 360, 350–352]. Cytosolic ARF GEP was also inhibited by BFA, but after purification from bovine brain and rat spleen, it was no longer BFA-sensitive [Tsai, S.-C., Adamik, R., Moss, J. & Vaughan, M. (1996) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 305–309]. We describe here purification from bovine brain cytosol of a BFA-inhibited GEP. After chromatography on DEAE–Sephacel, hydroxylapatite, and Mono Q and precipitation at pH 5.8, GEP was eluted from Superose 6 as a large molecular weight complex at the position of thyroglobulin (≈670 kDa). After SDS/PAGE of samples from column fractions, silver-stained protein bands of ≈190 and 200 kDa correlated with activity. BFA-inhibited GEP activity of the 200-kDa protein was demonstrated following electroelution from the gel and renaturation by dialysis. Four tryptic peptides from the 200-kDa protein had amino acid sequences that were 47% identical to sequences in Sec7 from Saccharomyces cerevisiae (total of 51 amino acids), consistent with the view that the BFA-sensitive 200-kDa protein may be a mammalian counterpart of Sec7 that plays a similar role in cellular vesicular transport and Sec7 may be a GEP for one or more yeast ARFs.

Host factor I, Hfq, binds to Escherichia coli ompA mRNA in a growth rate-dependent fashion and regulates its stability

The stability of the ompA mRNA depends on the bacterial growth rate. The 5′ untranslated region is the stability determinant of this transcript and the target of the endoribonuclease, RNase E, the key player of mRNA degradation. An RNA-binding protein with affinity for the 5′ untranslated region ompA was purified and identified as Hfq, a host factor initially recognized for its function in phage Qβ replication. The ompA RNA-binding activity parallels the amount of Hfq, which is elevated in bacteria cultured at slow growth rate, a condition leading to facilitated degradation of the ompA mRNA. In hfq mutant cells with a deficient Hfq gene product, the RNA-binding activity is missing, and analysis of the ompA mRNA showed that the growth-rate dependence of degradation is lost. Furthermore, the half-life of the ompA mRNA is prolonged in the mutant cells, irrespective of growth rate. Hfq has no affinity for the lpp transcript whose degradation, like that of bulk mRNA, is not affected by bacterial growth rate. Compatible with our results, we found that the intracellular concentration of RNase E and its associated degradosome components is independent of bacterial growth rate. Thus our results suggest a regulatory role for Hfq that specifically facilitates the ompA mRNA degradation in a growth rate-dependent manner.

Filament structure as an essential factor for regulation of Dictyostelium myosin by regulatory light chain phosphorylation

Phosphorylation of the regulatory light chain (RLC) activates the actin-dependent ATPase activity of Dictyostelium myosin II. To elucidate this regulatory mechanism, we characterized two mutant myosins, MyΔC1225 and MyΔC1528, which are truncated at Ala-1224 and Ser-1527, respectively. These mutant myosins do not contain the C-terminal assembly domain and thus are unable to form filaments. Their activities were only weakly regulated by RLC phosphorylation, suggesting that, unlike smooth muscle myosin, efficient regulation of Dictyostelium myosin II requires filament assembly. Consistent with this hypothesis, wild-type myosin progressively lost the regulation as its concentration in the assay mixture was decreased. Dephosphorylated RLC did not inhibit the activity when the concentration of myosin in the reaction mixture was very low. Furthermore, 3xAsp myosin, which does not assemble efficiently due to point mutations in the tail, also was less well regulated than the wild-type. We conclude that the activity in the monomer state is exempt from inhibition by the dephosphorylated RLC and that the complete regulatory switch is formed only in the filament structure. Interestingly, a chimeric myosin composed of Dictyostelium heavy meromyosin fused to chicken skeletal light meromyosin was not well regulated by RLC phosphorylation. This suggests that, in addition to filament assembly, some specific feature of the filament structure is required for efficient regulation.

Low- and high-level transgenic expression of β2-adrenergic receptors differentially affect cardiac hypertrophy and function in Gαq-overexpressing mice

Transgenic overexpression of Gαq in the heart triggers events leading to a phenotype of eccentric hypertrophy, depressed ventricular function, marked expression of hypertrophy-associated genes, and depressed β-adrenergic receptor (βAR) function. The role of βAR dysfunction in the development of this failure phenotype was delineated by transgenic coexpression of the carboxyl terminus of the βAR kinase (βARK), which acts to inhibit the kinase, or concomitant overexpression of the β2AR at low (≈30-fold, Gαq/β2ARL), moderate (≈140-fold, Gαq/β2ARM), and high (≈1,000-fold, Gαq/β2ARH) levels above background βAR density. Expression of the βARK inhibitor had no effect on the phenotype, consistent with the lack of increased βARK levels in Gαq mice. In marked contrast, Gαq/β2ARL mice displayed rescue of hypertrophy and resting ventricular function and decreased cardiac expression of atrial natriuretic factor and α-skeletal actin mRNA. These effects occurred in the absence of any improvement in basal or agonist-stimulated adenylyl cyclase (AC) activities in crude cardiac membranes, although restoration of a compartmentalized β2AR/AC signal cannot be excluded. Higher expression of receptors in Gαq/β2ARM mice resulted in salvage of AC activity, but hypertrophy, ventricular function, and expression of fetal genes were unaffected or worsened. With ≈1,000-fold overexpression, the majority of Gαq/β2ARH mice died with cardiomegaly at 5 weeks. Thus, although it appears that excessive, uncontrolled, or generalized augmentation of βAR signaling is deleterious in heart failure, selective enhancement by overexpressing the β2AR subtype to limited levels restores not only ventricular function but also reverses cardiac hypertrophy.

RNA replication by Q beta replicase: a working model.

Two classes of RNA ligands that bound to separate, high affinity nucleic acid binding sites on Q beta replicase were previously identified. RNA ligands to the two sites, referred to as site I and site II, were used to investigate the molecular mechanism of RNA replication employed by the four-subunit replicase. Replication inhibition by site I- and site II-specific ligands defined two subsets of replicatable RNAs. When provided with appropriate 3' ends, ligands to either site served as replication templates. UV crosslinking experiments revealed that site I is associated with the S1 subunit, site II with elongation factor Tu, and polymerization with the viral subunit of the holoenzyme. These results provide the framework for a three site model describing template recognition and product strand initiation by Q beta replicase.

Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor activates the receptor tyrosine kinase RET and promotes kidney morphogenesis.

The receptor tyrosine kinase RET functions during the development of the kidney and the enteric nervous system, yet no ligand has been identified to date. This report demonstrates that the glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) activates RET, as measured by tyrosine phosphorylation of the intracellular catalytic domain. GDNF also binds RET with a dissociation constant of 8 nM, and 125I-labeled GDNF can be coimmunoprecipitated with anti-RET antibodies. In addition, exogenous GDNF stimulates both branching and proliferation of embryonic kidneys in organ culture, whereas neutralizing antibodies against GDNF inhibit branching morphogenesis. These data indicate that RET and GDNF are components of a common signaling pathway and point to a role for GDNF in kidney development.

Matrix metalloproteinase 2 releases active soluble ectodomain of fibroblast growth factor receptor 1.

Recent studies have demonstrated the existence of a soluble fibroblast growth factor (FGF) receptor type 1 (FGFR1) extracellular domain in the circulation and in vascular basement membranes. However, the process of FGFR1 ectodomain release from the plasma membrane is not known. Here we report that the 72-kDa gelatinase A (matrix metalloproteinase type 2, MMP2) can hydrolyze the Val368-Met369 peptide bond of the FGFR1 ectodomain, eight amino acids upstream of the transmembrane domain, thus releasing the entire extracellular domain. Similar results were obtained regardless of whether FGF was first bound to the receptor or not. The action of MMP2 abolished binding of FGF to an immobilized recombinant FGFR1 ectodomain fusion protein and to Chinese hamster ovary cells overexpressing FGFR1 The released recombinant FGFR1 ectodomain was able to bind FGF after MMP2 cleavage, suggesting that the cleaved soluble receptor maintained its FGF binding capacity. The activity of MMP2 could not be reproduced by the 92-kDa gelatinase B (MMP9) and was inhibited by tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase type 2. These studies demonstrate that FGFR1 may be a specific target for MMP2 on the cell surface, yielding a soluble FGF receptor that may modulate the mitogenic and angiogenic activities of FGF.