Cues and knowledge structures used by mental-health professionals when making risk assessments

Background: Research into mental-health risks has tended to focus on epidemiological approaches and to consider pieces of evidence in isolation. Less is known about the particular factors and their patterns of occurrence that influence clinicians’ risk judgements in practice. Aims: To identify the cues used by clinicians to make risk judgements and to explore how these combine within clinicians’ psychological representations of suicide, self-harm, self-neglect, and harm to others. Method: Content analysis was applied to semi-structured interviews conducted with 46 practitioners from various mental-health disciplines, using mind maps to represent the hierarchical relationships of data and concepts. Results: Strong consensus between experts meant their knowledge could be integrated into a single hierarchical structure for each risk. This revealed contrasting emphases between data and concepts underpinning risks, including: reflection and forethought for suicide; motivation for self-harm; situation and context for harm to others; and current presentation for self-neglect. Conclusions: Analysis of experts’ risk-assessment knowledge identified influential cues and their relationships to risks. It can inform development of valid risk-screening decision support systems that combine actuarial evidence with clinical expertise.

Knowledge engineering for mental-health risk assessment and decision support

Mental-health risk assessment practice in the UK is mainly paper-based, with little standardisation in the tools that are used across the Services. The tools that are available tend to rely on minimal sets of items and unsophisticated scoring methods to identify at-risk individuals. This means the reasoning by which an outcome has been determined remains uncertain. Consequently, there is little provision for: including the patient as an active party in the assessment process, identifying underlying causes of risk, and eecting shared decision-making. This thesis develops a tool-chain for the formulation and deployment of a computerised clinical decision support system for mental-health risk assessment. The resultant tool, GRiST, will be based on consensual domain expert knowledge that will be validated as part of the research, and will incorporate a proven psychological model of classication for risk computation. GRiST will have an ambitious remit of being a platform that can be used over the Internet, by both the clinician and the layperson, in multiple settings, and in the assessment of patients with varying demographics. Flexibility will therefore be a guiding principle in the development of the platform, to the extent that GRiST will present an assessment environment that is tailored to the circumstances in which it nds itself. XML and XSLT will be the key technologies that help deliver this exibility.

Chronic preoperative pain and psychological robustness predict acute postoperative pain outcomes after surgery for breast cancer

Background - Few epidemiological studies have prospectively investigated preoperative and surgical risk factors for acute postoperative pain after surgery for breast cancer. We investigated demographic, psychological, pain-related and surgical risk factors in women undergoing resectional surgery for breast cancer. Methods - Primary outcomes were pain severity, at rest (PAR) and movement-evoked pain (MEP), in the first postoperative week. Results - In 338 women undergoing surgery, those with chronic preoperative pain were three times more likely to report moderate to severe MEP after breast cancer surgery (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.45–6.99). Increased psychological ‘robustness’, a composite variable representing positive affect and dispositional optimism, was associated with lower intensity acute postoperative PAR (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48–0.82) and MEP (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.93). Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and intraoperative nerve division were associated with reduced postoperative pain. No relationship was found between preoperative neuropathic pain and acute pain outcomes; altered sensations and numbness postoperatively were more common after axillary sample or clearance compared with SLNB. Conclusion - Chronic preoperative pain, axillary surgery and psychological robustness significantly predicted acute pain outcomes after surgery for breast cancer. Preoperative identification and targeted intervention of subgroups at risk could enhance the recovery trajectory in cancer survivors.

Developing a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental-health clinical risk expertise

This paper explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool [1] is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. This paper details how the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. These semantics are formalised by a detailed specification for an XML structure used to represent the expertise. The component parts were then mapped to equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

Psychological cue use and implications for a clinical decision support system

Effective clinical decision making depends upon identifying possible outcomes for a patient, selecting relevant cues, and processing the cues to arrive at accurate judgements of each outcome's probability of occurrence. These activities can be considered as classification tasks. This paper describes a new model of psychological classification that explains how people use cues to determine class or outcome likelihoods. It proposes that clinicians respond to conditional probabilities of outcomes given cues and that these probabilities compete with each other for influence on classification. The model explains why people appear to respond to base rates inappropriately, thereby overestimating the occurrence of rare categories, and a clinical example is provided for predicting suicide risk. The model makes an effective representation for expert clinical judgements and its psychological validity enables it to generate explanations in a form that is comprehensible to clinicians. It is a strong candidate for incorporation within a decision support system for mental-health risk assessment, where it can link with statistical and pattern recognition tools applied to a database of patients. The symbiotic combination of empirical evidence and clinical expertise can provide an important web-based resource for risk assessment, including multi-disciplinary education and training. © 2002 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

Investigating mental health risk assessment in primary care and the potential role of a structured decision support tool, GRiST

Aim: To explore current risk assessment processes in general practice and Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services, and to consider whether the Galatean Risk and Safety Tool (GRiST) can help support improved patient care. Background: Much has been written about risk assessment practice in secondary mental health care, but little is known about how it is undertaken at the beginning of patients' care pathways, within general practice and IAPT services. Methods: Interviews with eight general practice and eight IAPT clinicians from two primary care trusts in the West Midlands, UK, and eight service users from the same region. Interviews explored current practice and participants' views and experiences of mental health risk assessment. Two focus groups were also carried out, one with general practice and one with IAPT clinicians, to review interview findings and to elicit views about GRiST from a demonstration of its functionality. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Findings Variable approaches to mental health risk assessment were observed. Clinicians were anxious that important risk information was being missed, and risk communication was undermined. Patients felt uninvolved in the process, and both clinicians and patients expressed anxiety about risk assessment skills. Clinicians were positive about the potential for GRiST to provide solutions to these problems. Conclusions: A more structured and systematic approach to risk assessment in general practice and IAPT services is needed, to ensure important risk information is captured and communicated across the care pathway. GRiST has the functionality to support this aspect of practice.

Psychological influence of the media on patients commencing oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation:a qualitative analysis

Background: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF); however it is still underutilized and sometimes refused by patients. Two inter-related studies were undertaken to understand the experiences and what influences this un- derutilisation of warfarin treatment in AF patients. These studies explored physician and patient experiences of AF and OAC treatment. The paper focuses on specific sub-themes from the study that explored patients’ experiences will be discussed. Aim: The study in question aimed to explore the experiences which influence patients’ decisions to accept, decline or discontinue OAC. Methods: Semi-structured individual interviews with patients were con- ducted. Three sub-groups of patients (n = 11) diagnosed with AF were interviewed; those who accepted, refused, and who discontinued war- farin. Interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) was used to examine the data. IPA is a qualitative method that focuses on how participants make sense of an experiences phenomenon Results: Three over-arching themes comprised patients’ experiences: (i)the initial consultation, (ii) life after the consultation, and (iii) patients’reflections. In the last theme, patients reflected on their perceptions ofaspirin and warfarin. Aspirin was perceived as a natural wonder-drugwhile warfarin was perceived as a dangerous drug usually given to peo-ple at the end of their life. Interestingly they perceive both drugs as‘old’. However, for aspirin it had a positive association, old meaningtried and tested. While for warfarin, old meant ‘has been around fortoo long’.Conclusion: Media had an important role in how patients’ perceptionsof these two drugs were influenced. Literature shows that framingtechniques, i.e. using certain words or phrases such as ‘rat poison’, areprocesses adopted by media to alter medical knowledge into lay per-son’s language. Patients in turn form negative cognitive schemas,between the word ‘poison’ and warfarin, leading to the negative per-ception of warfarin which could influence non-adherence to treatment.This qualitative research highlighted the potential influences of themedia on AF patient perceptions commencing OAC treatment. Theassociation between media stimuli and patient perceptions on OACshould be further explored. The influential power of lay-media couldalso be instrumental in disseminating appropriate educational materialto the public

A meta -analysis of empirical research studies on resilience among students at -risk for school failure

Being at-risk is a growing problem in the U.S. because of disturbing societal trends such as unemployment, divorce, substance abuse, child abuse and neglect, and the new threat of terrorist violence. Resilience characterizes individuals who rebound from or adapt to adversities such as these, and academic resilience distinguishes at-risk students who succeed in school despite hardships. ^ The purpose of this research was to perform a meta-analysis to examine the power of resilience and to suggest ways educators might improve academic resilience, which was operationalized by satisfactory test scores and grades. In order to find all studies that were relevant to academic resilience in at-risk kindergarten through 12th-grade students, extensive electronic and hardcopy searches were conducted, and these resulted in a database of 421 articles. Two hundred eighty seven of these were rejected quickly, because they were not empirical research. Upon further examination, another 106 were rejected for not meeting study protocol criteria. Ultimately, 28 studies were coded for study level descriptors and effect size variables. ^ Protective factors for resilience were found to originate in physical, psychological, and behavioral domains on proximal/intraindividual, transitional/intrafamilial, or distal/extrafamilial levels. Effect sizes (ESs) for these were weighted and the means for each level or category were interpreted by commonly accepted benchmarks. Mean effect sizes for proximal (M = .27) and for transitional (M = .15) were small but significant. The mean effect size for the distal level was insignificant. This supported the hypotheses that the proximal level was the source of most protective factors for academic resilience in at-risk students followed by the transitional level. The distal effect size warranted further research particularly in light of the small number of studies (n = 11) contributing effect sizes to that category. A homogeneity test indicated a search for moderators, i.e., study variables affecting outcomes, was justified. “Category” was the largest moderator. Graphs of weighted mean effect sizes in the physical, psychological, and behavioral domains were plotted for each level to better illustrate the findings of the meta-analysis. Suggestions were made for combining resilience development with aspects of positive psychology to promote resilience in the schools. ^

Caring and being cared -for: Perceptions of adolescent males at -risk for school failure

This qualitative study used grounded theory methods and purposeful sampling to explore perceptions on caring and being cared-for. Twenty-four adolescent male participants, identified as at-risk for school failure, completed a two phase interview process exploring these phenomena within three relationships; the relationship with the friend, with the most caring person they knew and with the teacher they felt cared for them. ^ Each participant was asked a predetermined set of open questions in an initial semi-structured interview. In addition each participant was encouraged to explore his own reflections on caring. A second interview allowed for member checking and for the participant to continue sharing his meaning of caring and being cared-for. ^ Line by line analysis with open, axial and selective coding was applied to interview transcripts along with a constant comparative method. Results indicated that the core category integrating all other categories was attachment bonding. Participants' stories manifested characteristics of proximity seeking, secure base, safe haven and distress upon involuntary separation from an attachment figure. ^ Strategies facilitating attachment bonding were influenced by the power positions of the relational players. Participants responded positively to the one-caring when they felt cared-for. Results further indicated that participants did not need to feel a sense of belonging in order to feel cared-for. Teacher behaviors indicating openness for authentic connections with students were specific to teacher's friendliness and professional competence. Teachers who nurtured feelings of being cared-for were uncommon in the participants' educational experience. ^ The number of adolescent males leaving high school prematurely is both a personal problem and a social problem. Despite a “mask” of indifference often exhibited by adolescent males at-risk for school failure, teachers might consider the social/emotional needs of these students when implementing the curriculum. In addition, policy makers might consider the social/emotional needs of this vulnerable population when developing programs meant to foster psychological well-being and connectedness for adolescent males at-risk for school failure. ^

Psychological and cognitive factors that influence post -exercise energy intake in normal weight and overweight sedentary males

Physical activity is recommended to facilitate weight management. However, some individuals may be unable to successfully manage their weight due to certain psychological and cognitive factors that trigger them to compensate for calories expended in exercise. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of moderate-intensity exercise on lunch and 12-hour post-exercise energy intake (PE-EI) in normal weight and overweight sedentary males. Perceived hunger, mood, carbohydrate intake from beverages, and accuracy in estimating energy intake (EI) and energy expenditure (EE) were also assessed. The study consisted of two conditions, exercise (treadmill walking) and rest (sitting), with each participant completing each condition, in a counterbalanced-crossover design on two days. Eighty males, mean age 30 years (SD=8) were categorized into five groups according to weight (normal-/overweight), dietary restraint level (high/low), and dieting status (yes/no). Results of repeated measures, 5x2 ANOVA indicated that the main effects of condition and group, and the interaction were not significant for lunch or 12-hour PE-EI. Among overweight participants, dieters consumed significantly (p<0.05) fewer calories than non-dieters at lunch (M=822 vs. M=1149) and over 12 hours (M=1858 vs. M =2497). Overall, participants’ estimated exercise EE was significantly (p<0.01) higher than actual exercise EE, and estimated resting EE was significantly (p<0.001) lower than actual resting EE. Participants significantly (p<0.001) underestimated EI at lunch on both experimental days. Perceived hunger was significantly (p<0.05) lower after exercise (M=49 mm, SEM=3) than after rest (M=57 mm, SEM=3). Mood scores and carbohydrate intake from beverages were not influenced by weight, dietary restraint, and dieting status. In conclusion, a single bout of moderate-intensity exercise did not influence PE-EI in sedentary males in reference to weight, dietary restraint, and dieting status, suggesting that this population may not be at risk for overeating in response to exercise. Therefore, exercise can be prescribed and used as an effective tool for weight management. Results also indicated that there was an inability to accurately estimate EI (ad libitum lunch meal) and EE (60 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise). Inaccuracies in the estimation of calories for EI and EE could have the potential to unfavorably impact weight management.

Essays on risk aversion, diversification and non -participation

My dissertation consists of three essays. The central theme of these essays is the psychological factors and biases that affect the portfolio allocation decision. The first essay entitled, “Are women more risk-averse than men?” examines the gender difference in risk aversion as revealed by actual investment choices. Using a sample that controls for biases in the level of education and finance knowledge, there is evidence that when individuals have the same level of education, irrespective of their knowledge of finance, women are no more risk-averse than their male counterparts. However, the gender-risk aversion relation is also a function of age, income, wealth, marital status, race/ethnicity and the number of children in the household. The second essay entitled, “Can diversification be learned ?” investigates if investors who have superior investment knowledge are more likely to actively seek diversification benefits and are less prone to allocation biases. Results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that knowledge of finance increases the likelihood that an investor will efficiently allocate his direct investments across the major asset classes; invest in foreign assets; and hold a diversified equity portfolio. However, there is no evidence that investors who are more financially sophisticated make superior allocation decisions in their retirement savings. The final essay entitled, “The demographics of non-participation ”, examines the factors that affect the decision not to hold stocks. The results of probit regression models indicate that when individuals are highly educated, the decision to not participate in the stock market is less related to demographic factors. In particular, when individuals have attained at least a college degree and have advanced knowledge of finance, they are significantly more likely to invest in equities either directly or indirectly through mutual funds or their retirement savings. There is also evidence that the decision not to hold stocks is motivated by short-term market expectations and the most recent investment experience. The findings of these essays should increase the body of research that seeks to reconcile what investors actually do (positive theory) with what traditional theories of finance predict that investors should do (normative theory).

Four essays of environmental risk-mitigation

Expected damages of environmental risks depend both on their intensities and probabilities. There is very little control over probabilities of climate related disasters such as hurricanes. Therefore, researchers of social science are interested identifying preparation and mitigation measures that build human resilience to disasters and avoid serious loss. Conversely, environmental degradation, which is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way, has been accelerated by human activities. As scientists are finding effective ways on how to prevent and reduce pollution, the society often fails to adopt these effective preventive methods. Researchers of psychological and contextual characterization offer specific lessons for policy interventions that encourage human efforts to reduce pollution. This dissertation addresses four discussions of effective policy regimes encouraging pro-environmental preference in consumption and production, and promoting risk mitigation behavior in the face of natural hazards. The first essay describes how the speed of adoption of environment friendly technologies is driven largely by consumers' preferences and their learning dynamics rather than producers' choice. The second essay is an empirical analysis of a choice experiment to understand preferences for energy efficient investments. The empirical analysis suggests that subjects tend to increase energy efficient investment when they pay a pollution tax proportional to the total expenditure on energy consumption. However, investments in energy efficiency seem to be crowded out when subjects have the option to buy health insurance to cover pollution related health risks. In context of hurricane risk mitigation and in evidence of recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida, the third essay shows that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow home inspection to seek mitigation information. The fourth essay evaluates the impact of utility disruption on household well being based on the responses of a household-level phone survey in the wake of hurricane Wilma. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

Essays on Risk Aversion, Diversification and Non-Participation

My dissertation consists of three essays. The central theme of these essays is the psychological factors and biases that affect the portfolio allocation decision. The first essay entitled, “Are women more risk-averse than men?” examines the gender difference in risk aversion as revealed by actual investment choices. Using a sample that controls for biases in the level of education and finance knowledge, there is evidence that when individuals have the same level of education, irrespective of their knowledge of finance, women are no more risk-averse than their male counterparts. However, the gender-risk aversion relation is also a function of age, income, wealth, marital status, race/ethnicity and the number of children in the household. The second essay entitled, “Can diversification be learned?” investigates if investors who have superior investment knowledge are more likely to actively seek diversification benefits and are less prone to allocation biases. Results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that knowledge of finance increases the likelihood that an investor will efficiently allocate his direct investments across the major asset classes; invest in foreign assets; and hold a diversified equity portfolio. However, there is no evidence that investors who are more financially sophisticated make superior allocation decisions in their retirement savings. The final essay entitled, “The demographics of non-participation”, examines the factors that affect the decision not to hold stocks. The results of probit regression models indicate that when individuals are highly educated, the decision to not participate in the stock market is less related to demographic factors. In particular, when individuals have attained at least a college degree and have advanced knowledge of finance, they are significantly more likely to invest in equities either directly or indirectly through mutual funds or their retirement savings. There is also evidence that the decision not to hold stocks is motivated by short-term market expectations and the most recent investment experience. The findings of these essays should increase the body of research that seeks to reconcile what investors actually do (positive theory) with what traditional theories of finance predict that investors should do (normative theory).

Attachment, psychological functioning, and resilience within the street involved youth populations: describing youth who access community agency support

Youth homelessness is defined within the literature as youth who have left their homes and are living independent of parental figures and/or caregivers, have no stable residence or source of income, and lack access to the supports needed to make the challenging transition into adulthood (Canadian Observatory on Homelessness, 2015). Previous research studying homeless (or street-involved) youth has primarily focused on risk factors hindering the development of this population, and has largely ignored resilience, coping, and help-seeking behaviours. The current study examined the attachment styles (both categorically and dimensionally), psychological functioning, resilience, and help-seeking behaviours in street-involved youth of St. John’s, Newfoundland. Face-to face interviews were completed over a four-month period with 63 youth (42 males, 21 females) aged 15-29 (Mage = 20.00), recruited from a local community organization providing outreach services to street-involved youth. Results revealed the disproportionate struggles of the street-involved youth population, and highlighted higher levels of attachment insecurity, psychological distress and lower resilience compared to normative peers. Findings also showed a significant difference in psychological functioning, overall resilience, and emotional reactivity based on individual attachment style. In an exploratory model of help-seeking, a positive relationship was found between overall resilience (defined as a sense of mastery and sense of relatedness) and frequency of community service access. However, contrary to predictions, no relationships were found between frequency of community service access and attachment, psychological functioning, or emotional reactivity. Implications of the present findings in development of interventions for street-involved youth are discussed, in addition to strengths and limitations of the present research, and suggested areas of future inquiry.

An exploration of men’s experiences of undergoing active surveillance for favourable-risk prostate cancer: A mixed methods study protocol

Background
Prostate cancer is one of the most common male cancers worldwide. Active Surveillance (AS) has been developed to allow men with lower risk disease to postpone or avoid the adverse side effects associated with curative treatments until the disease progresses. Despite the medical benefits of AS, it is reported that living with untreated cancer can create a significant emotional burden for patients.

Methods/design
The aim of this study is to gain insight into the experiences of men eligible to undergo AS for favourable-risk PCa.

This study has a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design consisting of two phases: quantitative followed by qualitative. Phase 1 has a multiple point, prospective, longitudinal exploratory design. Ninety men diagnosed with favourable-risk prostate cancer will be assessed immediately post-diagnosis (baseline) and followed over a period of 12 months, in intervals of 3 month. Ninety age-matched men with no cancer diagnosis will also be recruited using peer nomination and followed up in the same 3 month intervals. Following completion of Phase 1, 10–15 AS participants who have reported both the best and worst psychological functioning will be invited to participate in semi-structured qualitative interviews. Phase 2 will facilitate further exploration of the quantitative results and obtain a richer understanding of participants’ personal interpretations of their illness and psychological wellbeing.

Discussion
To our knowledge, this is the first study to utilise early baseline measures; include a healthy comparison group; calculate sample size through power calculations; and use a mixed methods approach to gain a deeper more holistic insight into the experiences of men diagnosed with favourable-risk prostate cancer.