Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

An analysis of electrocardiographic criteria for determining left ventricular hypertrophy

OBJECTIVE: To determine the most sensitive criterion for the detection of left ventricular hypertrophy according to echocardiographically defined left ventricular mass. METHODS: The Sokolow-Lyon voltage, Sokolow-Lyon-Rappaport, Cornell voltage duration product, White-Bock, and Romhilt-Estes point scoring criteria were compared with left ventricular mass index, corrected for body surface, obtained from the echocardiograms of 306 outpatients (176 females, 130 males), of all age groups. RESULTS: The Cornell voltage duration product criteria index had the greatest sensitivity in women (54.90%), and the Sokolow-Lyon-Rappaport index was most sensitive in men (73.53%). When applied to men at the same voltage amplitude (20mm) as that in women, the Cornell index showed increased sensitivity relative to the conventional index (28mm) of 67.65% (P<=0.01) and a sensitivity similar to that of the Sokolow-Lyon-Rappaport index, with higher specificity (P<=0.01). The White-Bock and Romhilt-Estes criteria were the least sensitive in men and women, despite their high specificity. The electrocardiographic criteria were more efficient when dilatation predominated over left ventricular hypertrophy. CONCLUSION: The Cornell index had greater sensitivity in women, and the Sokolow-Lyon-Rappaport index was more sensitive in men. When applied to men at the same voltage amplitude as that of women, the Cornell index had an increase in sensitivity similar to that of the Sokolow-Lyon-Rappaport index.

Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Evaluation in Obese Hypertensive Patients: Effect of Left Ventricular Mass Index Criteria

PURPOSE: To evaluate left ventricular mass (LVM) index in hypertensive and normotensive obese individuals. METHODS: Using M mode echocardiography, 544 essential hypertensive and 106 normotensive patients were evaluated, and LVM was indexed for body surface area (LVM/BSA) and for height² (LVM/h²). The 2 indexes were then compared in both populations, in subgroups stratified according to body mass index (BMI): <27; 27-30; > or = 30kg/m². RESULTS: The BSA index does not allow identification of significant differences between BMI subgroups. Indexing by height² provides significantly increased values for high BMI subgroups in normotensive and hypertensive populations. CONCLUSION: Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has been underestimated in the obese with the use of LVM/BSA because this index considers obesity as a physiological variable. Indexing by height² allows differences between BMI subgroups to become apparent and seems to be more appropriate for detecting LVH in obese populations.

Devices and Techniques for Blood Pressure Measurement and Criteria for Hypertension Adopted by Brazilian Physicians: Exploratory Study

OBJECTIVE: To determine technical procedures and criteria used by Brazilian physicians for measuring blood pressure and diagnosing hypertension. METHODS: A questionnaire with 5 questions about practices and behaviors regarding blood pressure measurement and the diagnosis of hypertension was sent to 25,606 physicians in all Brazilian regions through a mailing list. The responses were compared with the recommendations of a specific consensus and descriptive analysis. RESULTS: Of the 3,621 (14.1%) responses obtained, 57% were from the southeastern region of Brazil. The following items were reported: use of an aneroid device by 67.8%; use of a mercury column device by 14.6%; 11.9% of the participants never calibrated the devices; 35.7% calibrated the devices at intervals < 1 year; 85.8% measured blood pressure in 100% of the medical visits; 86.9% measured blood pressure more than once and on more than one occasion. For hypertension diagnosis, 55.7% considered the patient's age, and only 1/3 relied on consensus statements. CONCLUSION: Despite the adequate frequency of both practices, it was far from that expected, and some contradictions between the diagnostic criterion for hypertension and the number of blood pressure measurements were found. The results suggest that, to include the great majority of the medical professionals, disclosure of consensus statements and techniques for blood pressure measurement should go beyond the boundaries of medical events and specialized journals.

Métodos para el análisis de programas probabilistas y no-deterministas utilizando probadores de teoremas. Methods for the analysis of probabilistic and nondeterministic programs using theorem provers.

La verificación y el análisis de programas con características probabilistas es una tarea necesaria del quehacer científico y tecnológico actual. El éxito y su posterior masificación de las implementaciones de protocolos de comunicación a nivel hardware y soluciones probabilistas a problemas distribuidos hacen más que interesante el uso de agentes estocásticos como elementos de programación. En muchos de estos casos el uso de agentes aleatorios produce soluciones mejores y más eficientes; en otros proveen soluciones donde es imposible encontrarlas por métodos tradicionales. Estos algoritmos se encuentran generalmente embebidos en múltiples mecanismos de hardware, por lo que un error en los mismos puede llegar a producir una multiplicación no deseada de sus efectos nocivos.Actualmente el mayor esfuerzo en el análisis de programas probabilísticos se lleva a cabo en el estudio y desarrollo de herramientas denominadas chequeadores de modelos probabilísticos. Las mismas, dado un modelo finito del sistema estocástico, obtienen de forma automática varias medidas de performance del mismo. Aunque esto puede ser bastante útil a la hora de verificar programas, para sistemas de uso general se hace necesario poder chequear especificaciones más completas que hacen a la corrección del algoritmo. Incluso sería interesante poder obtener automáticamente las propiedades del sistema, en forma de invariantes y contraejemplos.En este proyecto se pretende abordar el problema de análisis estático de programas probabilísticos mediante el uso de herramientas deductivas como probadores de teoremas y SMT solvers. Las mismas han mostrado su madurez y eficacia en atacar problemas de la programación tradicional. Con el fin de no perder automaticidad en los métodos, trabajaremos dentro del marco de "Interpretación Abstracta" el cual nos brinda un delineamiento para nuestro desarrollo teórico. Al mismo tiempo pondremos en práctica estos fundamentos mediante implementaciones concretas que utilicen aquellas herramientas.

Applicability of the Appropriate use Criteria for Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy

Background: Appropriateness Criteria for nuclear imaging exams were created by American College of Cardiology (ACC) e American Society of Nuclear Cardiology (ASNC) to allow the rational use of tests. Little is known whether these criteria have been followed in clinical practice. Objective: To evaluate whether the medical applications of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) in a private nuclear medicine service of a tertiary cardiology hospital were suitable to the criteria of indications proposed by the American medical societies in 2005 and 2009 and compare the level of indication of both. Methods: We included records of 383 patients that underwent MPS, November 2008 up to February 2009. Demographic characteristics, patient's origin, coronary risk factors, time of medical graduation and appropriateness criteria of medical applications were studied. The criteria were evaluated by two independent physicians and, in doubtful cases, defined by a medical expert in MPS. Results: Mean age was 65 ± 12 years. Of the 367 records reviewed, 236 (64.3%) studies were performed in men and 75 (20.4%) were internee. To ACC 2005, 255 (69.5%) were considered appropriate indication and 13 (3.5%) inappropriate. With ACC 2009, 249 (67.8%) were considered appropriate indications and 13 (5.2%) inappropriate. Conclusions: We observed a high rate of adequacy of medical indications for MPS. Compared to the 2005 version, 2009 did not change the results.

The aggregation of Chauliognathus species (Coleoptera, Cantharidae) and its possible role for coexistence and mimicry

The relative population sizes of a species complex of Chauliognathus are reported, as well as their spatial distribution associated with different patches of food plants. Field work was done at Fazenda Santa Isabel, municipality of Guaíba, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results suggest that two mechanisms account for the reduction in food competition among the species involved: one is asynchrony in the appearance of the species in the area, and the other is aggregation in different patches of food plants. Since the species here reported show a similar colour pattern (yellow-black) the possibility of the occurrence of serial mimicry in this complex of species is dicussed.

Defining the criteria for the evaluation of self-study multimedia language learning materials: do they facilitate or inhibit learner autonomy?

Durant els darrers anys, s’han publicat un gran nombre de materials multimèdia destinats a l’aprenentatge de llengües, la major part dels quals son CD-ROM dissenyats com a cursos per l’autoaprenentatge. Amb aquests materials, els alumnes poden treballar independentment sense l’assessorament d’un professor, i per aquest motiu s’ha afirmat que promouen i faciliten l’aprenentatge autònom. Aquesta relació, però, no es certa, com Phil Benson i Peter Voller 1997:10) han manifestat encertadament:(…) Such claims are often dubious, however, because of the limited range of options and roles offered to the learner. Nevertheless, technologies of education in the broadest sense can be considered to be either more or less supportive of autonomy. The question is what kind of criteria do we apply in evaluating them? En aquest article presentem una investigació conjunta on es defineixen els criteris que poden ser utilitzats per avaluar materials multimèdia en relació a la seva facilitat per permetre l’aprenentatge autònom. Aquests criteris son la base d’un qüestionari que s’ha emprat per avaluar una selecció de CD-ROM destinats a l’autoaprenentatge de llengües. La estructura d’aquest article és la següent: - Una introducció de l’estudi - Els criteris que s’han utilitzar per la creació del qüestionari - Els resultats generals de l’avaluació - Les conclusions que s’han extret i la seva importància pel disseny instructiu multimèdia

Energy policies for rural electrification: a social multi-criteria evaluation approach

In this article, a real-world case- study is presented with two general objectives: to give a clear and simple illustrative example of application of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) in the field of rural renewable energy policies, and to help in understanding to what extent and under which circumstances solar energy is suitable for electrifying isolated farmhouses. In this sense, this study might offer public decision- makers some insight on the conditions that favour the diffusion of renewable energy, in order to help them to design more effective energy policies for rural communities.

Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE)

The main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of “Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation” (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our Millennium, where, as stated by Funtowicz and Ravetz, “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent”. This paper starts from the following main questions: 1. Why “Social” Multi-criteria Evaluation? 2. How such an approach should be developed? The foundations of SMCE are set up by referring to concepts coming from complex system theory and philosophy, such as reflexive complexity, post-normal science and incommensurability. To give some operational guidelines on the application of SMCE basic questions to be answered are: 1. How is it possible to deal with technical incommensurability? 2. How can we deal with the issue of social incommensurability? To answer these questions, by using theoretical considerations and lessons learned from realworld case studies, is the main objective of the present article.

Firm Size and Geographical Aggregation: An Empirical Appraisal in Industrial Location

This paper assesses empirically the importance of size discrimination and disaggregate data for deciding where to locate a start-up concern. We compare three econometric specifications using Catalan data: a multinomial logit with 4 and 41 alternatives (provinces and comarques, respectively) in which firm size is the main covariate; a conditional logit with 4 and 41 alternatives including attributes of the sites as well as size-site interactions; and a Poisson model on the comarques and the full spatial choice set (942 municipalities) with site-specific variables. Our results suggest that if these two issues are ignored, conclusions may be misleading. We provide evidence that large and small firms behave differently and conclude that Catalan firms tend to choose between comarques rather than between municipalities. Moreover, labour-intensive firms seem more likely to be located in the city of Barcelona. Keywords: Catalonia, industrial location, multinomial response model. JEL: C250, E30, R00, R12

Infinite time aggregation for the critical Patlak-Keller-Segel model in R2

We analyze the two-dimensional parabolic-elliptic Patlak-Keller-Segel model in the whole Euclidean space R2. Under the hypotheses of integrable initial data with finite second moment and entropy, we first show local in time existence for any mass of "free-energy solutions", namely weak solutions with some free energy estimates. We also prove that the solution exists as long as the entropy is controlled from above. The main result of the paper is to show the global existence of free-energy solutions with initial data as before for the critical mass 8 Π/Χ. Actually, we prove that solutions blow-up as a delta dirac at the center of mass when t→∞ keeping constant their second moment at any time. Furthermore, all moments larger than 2 blow-up as t→∞ if initially bounded.

Appropriateness criteria for surgery improve clinical outcomes in patients with low back pain and/or sciatica.

STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, controlled, observational outcome study using clinical, radiographic, and patient/physician-based questionnaire data, with patient outcomes at 12 months follow-up. OBJECTIVE: To validate appropriateness criteria for low back surgery. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Most surgical treatment failures are attributed to poor patient selection, but no widely accepted consensus exists on detailed indications for appropriate surgery. METHODS: Appropriateness criteria for low back surgery have been developed by a multispecialty panel using the RAND appropriateness method. Based on panel criteria, a prospective study compared outcomes of patients appropriately and inappropriately treated at a single institution with 12 months follow-up assessment. Included were patients with low back pain and/or sciatica referred to the neurosurgical department. Information about symptoms, neurologic signs, the health-related quality of life (SF-36), disability status (Roland-Morris), and pain intensity (VAS) was assessed at baseline, at 6 months, and at 12 months follow-up. The appropriateness criteria were administered prospectively to each clinical situation and outside of the clinical setting, with the surgeon and patients blinded to the results of the panel decision. The patients were further stratified into 2 groups: appropriate treatment group (ATG) and inappropriate treatment group (ITG). RESULTS: Overall, 398 patients completed all forms at 12 months. Treatment was considered appropriate for 365 participants and inappropriate for 33 participants. The mean improvement in the SF-36 physical component score at 12 months was significantly higher in the ATG (mean: 12.3 points) than in the ITG (mean: 6.8 points) (P = 0.01), as well as the mean improvement in the SF-36 mental component score (ATG mean: 5.0 points; ITG mean: -0.5 points) (P = 0.02). Improvement was also significantly higher in the ATG for the mean VAS back pain (ATG mean: 2.3 points; ITG mean: 0.8 points; P = 0.02) and Roland-Morris disability score (ATG mean: 7.7 points; ITG mean: 4.2 points; P = 0.004). The ATG also had a higher improvement in mean VAS for sciatica (4.0 points) than the ITG (2.8 points), but the difference was not significant (P = 0.08). The SF-36 General Health score declined in both groups after 12 months, however, the decline was worse in the ITG (mean decline: 8.2 points) than in the ATG (mean decline: 1.2 points) (P = 0.04). Overall, in comparison to ITG patients, ATG patients had significantly higher improvement at 12 months, both statistically and clinically. CONCLUSION: In comparison to previously reported literature, our study is the first to assess the utility of appropriateness criteria for low back surgery at 1-year follow-up with multiple outcome dimensions. Our results confirm the hypothesis that application of appropriateness criteria can significantly improve patient outcomes.

Use of a human-like low-grade bacteremia model of experimental endocarditis to study the role of Staphylococcus aureus adhesins and platelet aggregation in early endocarditis.

Animal models of infective endocarditis (IE) induced by high-grade bacteremia revealed the pathogenic roles of Staphylococcus aureus surface adhesins and platelet aggregation in the infection process. In humans, however, S. aureus IE possibly occurs through repeated bouts of low-grade bacteremia from a colonized site or intravenous device. Here we used a rat model of IE induced by continuous low-grade bacteremia to explore further the contributions of S. aureus virulence factors to the initiation of IE. Rats with aortic vegetations were inoculated by continuous intravenous infusion (0.0017 ml/min over 10 h) with 10(6) CFU of Lactococcus lactis pIL253 or a recombinant L. lactis strain expressing an individual S. aureus surface protein (ClfA, FnbpA, BCD, or SdrE) conferring a particular adhesive or platelet aggregation property. Vegetation infection was assessed 24 h later. Plasma was collected at 0, 2, and 6 h postinoculation to quantify the expression of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interleukin 1α (IL-1α), IL-1β, IL-6, and IL-10. The percentage of vegetation infection relative to that with strain pIL253 (11%) increased when binding to fibrinogen was conferred on L. lactis (ClfA strain) (52%; P = 0.007) and increased further with adhesion to fibronectin (FnbpA strain) (75%; P < 0.001). Expression of fibronectin binding alone was not sufficient to induce IE (BCD strain) (10% of infection). Platelet aggregation increased the risk of vegetation infection (SdrE strain) (30%). Conferring adhesion to fibrinogen and fibronectin favored IL-1β and IL-6 production. Our results, with a model of IE induced by low-grade bacteremia, resembling human disease, extend the essential role of fibrinogen binding in the initiation of S. aureus IE. Triggering of platelet aggregation or an inflammatory response may contribute to or promote the development of IE.