Predictors of mortality from pump failure and sudden cardiac death in patients with systolic heart failure and left ventricular dyssynchrony: results of the CARE-HF trial.

BACKGROUND: Determining a specific death cause may facilitate individualized therapy in patients with heart failure (HF). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) decreased mortality in the Cardiac Resynchronization in Heart Failure trial by reducing pump failure and sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study analyzes predictors of specific causes of death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate analyses used 8 baseline and 3-month post-randomization variables to predict pump failure and SCD (categorized as "definite," "probable," and "possible"). Of 255 deaths, 197 were cardiovascular. There were 71 SCDs with a risk reduction by CRT of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.76; P = .002) with similar reductions in SCD classified as definite, probable, and possible. Univariate SCD predictors were 3-month HF status (mitral regurgitation [MR] severity, plasma brain natriuretic peptide [BNP], end-diastolic volume, and systolic blood pressure), whereas randomization to CRT decreased risk. Multivariate SCD predictors were randomization to CRT 0.56 (0.53-0.96, P = .035) and 3-month MR severity 1.82 (1.77-2.60, P = .0012). Univariate pump failure death predictors related to baseline HF state (quality of life score, interventricular mechanical delay, end-diastolic volume, plasma BNP, MR severity, and systolic pressure), whereas randomization to CRT and nonischemic cardiomyopathy decreased risk; multivariate predictors of pump failure death were baseline plasma BNP and systolic pressure and randomization to CRT. CONCLUSION: CRT decreased SCD in patients with systolic HF and ventricular dyssynchrony. SCD risk was increased with increased severity of MR (including the 3-month value for MR as a time-dependent covariate) and reduced by randomization to CRT. HF death was increased related to the level of systolic blood pressure, log BNP, and randomization to CRT. These results emphasize the importance and interdependence of HF severity to mortality from pump failure and SCD.

Risk perception, emotion regulation and impulsivity as predictors of risk behaviours among adolescents in Switzerland

The purpose of this study was to explore the frequency of risk behaviours among Swiss adolescents and their links with risk perception, impulsivity and emotion regulation abilities, operationalized with the concepts of alexithymia and emo- tional openness. We recruited 144 subjects (aged 14-20), who completed the Risk Involvement and Perception Scale (RIPS-R), the UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale, the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), and the 20-item Dimensions of Openness to Emotional Experiences (DOE-20) questionnaire. Findings revealed that a greater perception of benefits and a higher level of sensation seeking were associated with more involvement in risk behaviours, which are essentially socially accepted behaviours. Notably, the path model indicated that the perception of benefits was a mediator in the relationship between sensation seeking and risk behaviours. The results add to the psychological understanding of factors associated with risk behaviours in adolescence. The limitations and implications of these results for developmental theories, research, and prevention are stated.

Predictors of substance use reduction in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

AIM: To assess the predictors of a significant decrease or cessation of substance use (SU) in a treated epidemiological cohort of first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHOD: Participants were FEP patients of the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre in Australia. Patients' medical files were reviewed using a standardized file audit. Data on 432 patients with FEP and baseline co-morbid substance use disorder (SUD) were available for analysis. Predictors of reduction/cessation of SU at follow up were examined using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In univariate analyses, a reduction/cessation of SU was predicted by baseline measures reflecting higher education, employment, accommodation with others, cannabis use disorder (CUD) only (rather than poly-SUDs), better global functioning and better premorbid social and occupational functioning, later age at onset of psychosis, and a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis. In multivariate analysis, CUD alone and better premorbid social and occupational functioning remained significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing SUDs and social and occupational goals in people with FEP may offer opportunities to prevent SUDs becoming more severe or entrenched. Further longitudinal research on recovery from SU and FEP is needed to disentangle directions of influence and identify key targets for intervention.

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS: For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION: Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Molecular predictors of gemcitabine response in pancreatic cancer.

Gemcitabine is one of the most used anti-neoplastic drugs with documented activity in almost all major localizations of cancer. In pancreatic cancer treatment, gemcitabine occupies a prominent place as a first line chemotherapy, partly because of the paucity of other efficacious chemotherapy options. In fact, only a minority of pancreatic cancer patients display a response or even stability of disease with the drug. There are currently no clinically applicable means of predicting which patient will derive a clinical benefit from gemcitabine although several proposed markers have been studied. These markers are proteins involved in drug up-take, activation and catabolism or proteins that define the ability of the cell to undergo apoptosis in response to the drug. Several of these markers are reviewed in this paper. We also briefly discuss the possible role of stem cells in drug resistance to gemcitabine.

Predictors for the emergence of the 2 multi-nucleoside/nucleotide resistance mutations 69 insertion and Q151M and their impact on clinical outcome in the Swiss HIV cohort study.

The 69 insertion and Q151M mutations are multi-nucleoside/nucleotide resistance mutations (MNR). The prevalence among 4078 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-experienced individuals was <1.3%. Combined ART fully prevented MNR in subtype B infections. Case-control studies were performed to identify risk factors. Control subjects were patients with ≥ 3 thymidine-analogue mutations. The 69 insertion study (27 control subjects, 14 case patients) identified didanosine exposure as a risk (odds ratio, 5.0 per year; P = .019), whereas the Q151M study (which included 44 control subjects and 25 case patients) detected no associations. Following detection, individuals with Q151M tended to have lower suppression rates and higher mortality rates, relative to control subjects. Additional studies are needed to verify these findings in non-subtype B infections.

Early predictors of outcome in comatose survivors of ventricular fibrillation and non-ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest treated with hypothermia: a prospective study

OBJECTIVES: Current indications for therapeutic hypothermia (TH) are restricted to comatose patients with cardiac arrest (CA) due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) and without circulatory shock. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of this treatment in more heterogeneous groups of patients, including those with non-VF rhythms and/or shock and to identify early predictors of outcome in this setting. DESIGN: Prospective study, from December 2004 to October 2006. SETTING: 32-bed medico-surgical intensive care unit, university hospital. PATIENTS: Comatose patients with out-of-hospital CA. INTERVENTIONS: TH to 33 +/- 1 degrees C (external cooling, 24 hrs) was administered to patients resuscitated from CA due to VF and non-VF (including asystole or pulseless electrical activity), independently from the presence of shock. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We hypothesized that simple clinical criteria available on hospital admission (initial arrest rhythm, duration of CA, and presence of shock) might help to identify patients who eventually survive and might most benefit from TH. For this purpose, outcome was related to these predefined variables. Seventy-four patients (VF 38, non-VF 36) were included; 46% had circulatory shock. Median duration of CA (time from collapse to return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC]) was 25 mins. Overall survival was 39.2%. However, only 3.1% of patients with time to ROSC > 25 mins survived, as compared to 65.7% with time to ROSC < or = 25 mins. Using a logistic regression analysis, time from collapse to ROSC, but not initial arrest rhythm or presence of shock, independently predicted survival at hospital discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Time from collapse to ROSC is strongly associated with outcome following VF and non-VF cardiac arrest treated with therapeutic hypothermia and could therefore be helpful to identify patients who benefit most from active induced cooling.

Predictors of the Indefinite-Duration Anticoagulation Treatment Strategy In Patients with Cancer Associated Thrombosis

Background: In patients with cancer and acute venous thromboembolism (VTE), current consensus guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for an indefinite duration or until the cancer is resolved. Methods and results: Among 1'247 patients with acute VTE enrolled in the Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry (SWIVTER) from 18 hospitals, 315 (25%) had cancer of whom 179 (57%) had metastatic disease, 159 (50%) ongoing or recent chemotherapy, and 83 (26%) tumor surgery within 6 months. Patients with cancer were older (66±14 vs. 60±19 years, p<0.001), more often hospitalized at the time of VTE diagnosis (46% vs. 36%, p=0.001), immobile for >3 days (25% vs. 16%, p<0.001), and more often had thrombocytopenia (6% vs. 1%, p<0.001) than patients without cancer. The 30-day rate of VTE-related death or recurrent VTE was 9% in cancer patients vs. 4% in patients without cancer (p<0.001), and the rates of bleeding requiring medical attention were 5% in both groups (p=0.57). Cancer patients received indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment more often than patients without cancer (47% vs. 19%, p<0.001), and LMWH mono-therapy during the initial 3 months was prescribed to 45% vs. 8%, p<0.001, respectively. Among patients with cancer, prior VTE (OR 4.0, 95%CI 2.0-8.0), metastatic disease (OR 3.0, 95%CI 1.7-5.2), outpatient status at the time of VTE diagnosis (OR 3.8, 95%CI 1.9-7.6), and inpatient treatment (OR 4.4, 95%CI 2.1-9.2) were independently associated with the prescription of indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment. Conclusions: Less than half of the cancer patients with acute VTE received a prescription for indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment. Recurrent VTE, metastatic cancer, outpatient VTE diagnosis, and VTE requiring hospitalization were associated with an increased use of this strategy.

Prevalence and predictors of suicide attempt in an incidence cohort of 661 young people with first-episode psychosis

OBJECTIVES: Studies investigating suicidal behaviour in psychosis rarely focus on incidence cohorts of first-episode patients. This is important, because patients who refuse study participation have higher rates of comorbid substance use disorders and longer duration of untreated psychosis as well as worse course illness, variables potentially linked to higher prevalence of suicidal behaviour. The aims of the present study were therefore to examine the prevalence and predictors of suicide and suicide attempt before and during the first 18-24 months of treatment. METHOD: A retrospective file audit of 661 patients was carried out. RESULTS: Six patients (0.9%) died by suicide, 93 (14.3%) attempted suicide prior to entry, and 57 (8.7%) did so during treatment. Predictors of suicide attempt were: previous attempt (odds ratio (OR)=45.54, 95% confidence interval (CI)=9.46-219.15), sexual abuse (OR=8.46, 95%CI=1.88-38.03), comorbid polysubstance (OR=13.63, 95%CI=2.58-71.99), greater insight (OR=0.17, 95%CI=0.06-0.49), lower baseline Global Assessment of Functioning Scale and Scale of Occupational and Functional Assessment score (OR=0.96, 95%CI=0.62-0.91; OR=0.98, 95%CI=0.95-0.99), and longer time in treatment (OR=1.05, 95%CI=1.03-1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of suicidal behaviour was high, indicating that suicidal behaviour in incidence populations is higher than in non-epidemiological cohorts of first-episode patients. The rate of repetition of suicide attempt among the sample, however, was lower than expected, suggesting that specialist services can play a role in reducing suicide risk.

Comorbidity and nutritional indices as predictors of morbidity after transurethral procedures: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Preoperative scores are widely used predictors of complications after major surgery. These scores, however, are not widely used in transurethral procedures. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the age-adjusted CCI, the American Society of Anesthesiologist score (ASA) and the Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) in predicting early morbidity after transurethral urological procedures. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing transurethral resection of the bladder or the prostate were prospectively enrolled. The scores were calculated preoperatively; 30-day complications were prospectively recorded according to the Dindo-Clavien classification. Univariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the value of each score and of other factors (i.e., age, sex, body mass index, anemia, smoking habit, type of operation and anaesthesia) as predictors of complications. A multivariate model was then calculated using these predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 197 patients were included. The mean age was 72 (standard deviation ± 10). In total, 26.9% patients had at least 1 complication. Using univariate analysis, we found that each score significantly predicted complications. In multivariate analysis, only the ASA (odds ration [OR] 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-4.43) and the NRS (OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.56-3.74) remained independent predictors. The best model incorporated ASA, NRS and gender, and predicted morbidity with an area under the curve of 76%. Our study's main limitations are population heterogeneity and limited sample size. CONCLUSION: The ASA and the NRS are important and independent determinants of early morbidity after transurethral procedures. The use of these indices may assist clinicians in the decision-making process to balance the possible benefits of transurethral procedures with the potential risks.

Predictors of favourable outcome in first-episode patients who refuse medication: results from the FEPOS study

There are suggestions that some first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients can have favourable outcome without antipsychotic medication. However, there is very limited data regarding patients' characteristics on which the decision to propose medication free treatment could be based. FEPOS is a fi le-based study of an epidemiological sample of 704 FEP patients treated at EPPIC, Melbourne, between 1998 and 2000. Among the 661 patients where data was available, 108 consistently refused medication during the entire duration of their treatment at EPPIC. In this paper we compared, within this sub-group, patients who had a favourable outcome with those who did not. Patients were aged between 15 and 29 years (M = 21.9, SD = 3.40) and the majority were male (70.4%, n = 76). Symptomatic remission data was available on 105 patients; of these patients 41.0% (n = 41) had achieved remission. Functional remission data was available on 100 patients; of these patients 33.0% (n = 33) had achieved functional remission. Combined remission was evident in 23.0% (n = 23) of patients. Three factors were associated with symptomatic remission: better premorbid functioning (based on GAF, OR = 1.07, p = 0.006), higher number of years of education (OR = 1.43, p = 0.020), and being employed or studying at service entry (OR = 2.59, p = 0.034). Three factors were associated with functional remission: shorter duration of prodrome (OR = 0.50, p = 0.043), severity of psychopathology (CGI-S, OR = 0.51, p = 0.024), and vocational status at service entry (OR = 4.29, p = 0.003). While various aspects of pre-morbid functioning seem to correlate with the possibility of a favourable outcome in FEP patients who refuse medication, various limitations need to be taken into account in this study.

Clinical and laboratory predictors of imported malaria in an outpatient setting: an aid to medical decision making in returning travellers with fever

Si le tableau clinique évoque une malaria et que le résultat des examens parasitologiques n?est pas disponible ou est négatif, le praticien n?a pas d?information basée sur l?évidence pour savoir s?il doit donner ou non un traitement présomptif. Afin d?identifier les facteurs cliniques et paracliniques prédictifs d?une parasitémie à Plasmodium, nous avons mené une étude prospective chez les voyageurs ou migrants en provenance d?une zone tropicale ou subtropicale et qui consultaient pour de la fièvre. Le questionnaire comprenait 49 items explorant les données démographiques, les caractéristiques du voyage, les éléments de l?anamnèse et de l?examen clinique ainsi que les résultats de laboratoire. 336 sujets avec données complètes ont été recrutés (97 patients atteints de malaria et 239 contrôles avec fièvre et examen parasitologique négatif). L?analyse de régression multivariée a permis d?identifier les facteurs prédictifs de maiaria suivants : prophylaxie inadéquate, sudations, absence de douleur abdominale, température )38"C, mauvais état général, splénomégalie, compte leucocytaire (1 O x 1 03/L, plaquettes ~ 1 5 0 x l 03/L, taux d?hémoglobine <12 g/dL et éosinophiles (5%. La présence d?une splénomégalie avait le coefficient de probabilité positif pour un diagnostic de malaria le plus élevé (1 3.6) ; venait ensuite la présence d?une thrombopénie (1 1 .O). Dans le contexte de la consultation ambulatoire de la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire (prévalence de malaria de 29%), la probabilité post- test d?avoir un examen parasitologique positif était de 85% pour la splénomégalie et de 82% pour la thrombopénie. Même si le seuil thérapeutique n?est pas absolument défini, il semble raisonnable d?envisager un traitement présomptif lorsque la probabilité post- test est >80%. Si le médecin est réticent à administrer un traitement sans documentation parasitologique, il devrait au moins se retenir d?entreprendre d?autres investigations coûteuses, et plutôt répéter l?examen parasitologique après 12-24 heures.

Personality, social values, and marital satisfaction as predictors of parents’ rearing styles

Los estilos de crianza parentales pueden afectar la conducta y socialización de los adolescentes, por lo que es de interés conocer cómo algunas variables psicológicas de los padres se relacionan con los estilos de crianza. Este estudio tiene el objetivo de analizar los estilos de crianza de los padres, valores sociales (prestigio social, orden, benevolencia, y conservadurismo-liberalismo), los cinco grandes factores de personalidad, y la satisfacción de pareja (acuerdo general, afecto, satisfacción, y cohesión) en los padres de adolescentes. Este es un estudio prospectivo basado en método de análisis correlacional. Se encontró que los estilos educativos definidos por el cariño y aceptación se relacionan con los rasgos de personalidad como responsabilidad y estabilidad emocional, alta satisfacción de pareja y preferencia por valores prosociales. Al contrario, los estilos de crianza de sobreprotección y favoritismo se relacionan con baja amabilidad y baja apertura el poco ajuste de pareja con falta de cohesión y valores sociales definidos por falta de benevolencia y preferencia por valores de prestigio social.