Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR + PR + SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

Suspicion d'hémorragie sous-arachnoïdienne: place d'un score prédictif dans la stratégie diagnostique actuelle [Usefulness of a predictive score in subarachnoid hemorrhage diagnosis].

Usefulness of a predictive score in subarachnoid hemorrhage diagnosis Nearly half of the patients with non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) present with no neurological signs, inducing clinical underestimation of the gravity of their affection. As the outcome of aneurismal SAH is highly dependant on the initial neurological status and the recurrence of untreated hemorrhagic events, these neurologically intact patients stand to suffer the most from delayed diagnosis. Although there is currently no validated predictive score that reliably identifies SAH-induced headache, a combination of clinical criteria derived from a cohort of sudden-onset headache patients should allow risk stratification and identification of those patients requiring further investigation.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Predictive models for nanotoxicology: current challenges and future opportunities.

Characterizing the risks posed by nanomaterials is extraordinarily complex because these materials can have a wide range of sizes, shapes, chemical compositions and surface modifications, all of which may affect toxicity. There is an urgent need for a testing strategy that can rapidly and efficiently provide a screening approach for evaluating the potential hazard of nanomaterials and inform the prioritization of additional toxicological testing where necessary. Predictive toxicity models could form an integral component of such an approach by predicting which nanomaterials, as a result of their physico-chemical characteristics, have potentially hazardous properties. Strategies for directing research towards predictive models and the ancillary benefits of such research are presented here.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.

Predictive Factors for Intraocular Pressure Reduction after Phacoemulsification in Swiss Patients.

Background: Phacoemulsification is known to induce postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction, the degree of which varies according to glaucoma subtype and race. The authors set out to investigate the effect of cataract surgery on IOP, in a Swiss Caucasian population, and identify ocular predictive factors. Patients and Methods: 234 consecutive cases of 188 patients undergoing phacoemulsification between January 2011 and December 2012 were retrospectively reviewed and data collected. Exclusion criteria included acute angle closure, malignant glaucoma and pre-existing or subsequent glaucoma surgery. Pre- and post-operative visual acuity, IOP, gonioscopic findings, glaucoma medications, and laser treatments were recorded for eligible eyes. All eyes received the same postoperative regimen. Using multivariate analysis the predictive power of preoperative IOP, iridocorneal angle width, axial length on IOP reduction following phacoemulsification at months 3, 6 and 12 postoperatively were assessed. Eyes with narrow angles were compared against those with open angles. Results: 172 eyes of 121 patients met the inclusion criteria; mean age was 70.3 years (SD ± 10.7 years), with 77 males. Preoperatively median IOP was 16 mmHg (range 9-32 mmHg), mean number of glaucoma medications was 1.2 (SD ± 1.1), median visual acuity was 0.28 LogMAR (range 0-2.3LogMar). At 3 months post-operatively mean IOP decreased to 14 mmHg (p < 0.01) and remained statistically significantly reduced until 12 months, mean number of glaucoma medications was reduced to 1.0 and mean Snellen visual acuity increased to 0.8. Multivariate analysis revealed that pre-operative IOP and iridocorneal angle width (at 3 months) were significant predictive indicators of IOP reduction. At 12 months, IOP reduction was similar between open and narrow angle groups and total IOP reduction was no longer statistically significant. No intraoperative complications were recorded. Conclusions: Intraocular pressure reduction following phacoemulsification was greatest during the very early post-operative period, particularly in narrow angle patients. By one year, angle size was no longer predictive of IOP lowering, however pre-operative IOP and number of anti-glaucoma medications remained correlated with total IOP reduction.

Establishment and characterization of models of chemotherapy resistance in colorectal cancer: Towards a predictive signature of chemoresistance.

Current standard treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) are based on combination regimens with one of the two chemotherapeutic drugs, irinotecan or oxaliplatin. However, drug resistance frequently limits the clinical efficacy of these therapies. In order to gain new insights into mechanisms associated with chemoresistance, and departing from three distinct CRC cell models, we generated a panel of human colorectal cancer cell lines with acquired resistance to either oxaliplatin or irinotecan. We characterized the resistant cell line variants with regards to their drug resistance profile and transcriptome, and matched our results with datasets generated from relevant clinical material to derive putative resistance biomarkers. We found that the chemoresistant cell line variants had distinctive irinotecan- or oxaliplatin-specific resistance profiles, with non-reciprocal cross-resistance. Furthermore, we could identify several new, as well as some previously described, drug resistance-associated genes for each resistant cell line variant. Each chemoresistant cell line variant acquired a unique set of changes that may represent distinct functional subtypes of chemotherapy resistance. In addition, and given the potential implications for selection of subsequent treatment, we also performed an exploratory analysis, in relevant patient cohorts, of the predictive value of each of the specific genes identified in our cellular models.

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

The predictive value of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in children undergoing cardiac surgery

Introduction: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a biomarker of myocardial stress. In children, the value of preoperative BNP on postoperative outcome is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of preoperative NT-proBNP on postoperative outcome in children after congenital heart surgery. Results: Ninety-seven patients were included in the study with a median age of 3.3 years [0.7-5.2]. Preoperative median NT-proBNP was 412 pg/ml [164-1309]. NT-proBNP was above the P95 reference value for age in 56 patients (58%). Preoperative NT-proBNP was significantly higher in patients who had mechanical ventilation duration of more than 2 days (1156 pg/ml [281-1951] vs. 267 pg/ml [136-790], p=0.003) and who stayed more than 6 days in the pediatric intensive care unit (727 pg/ml [203-1951] vs. 256 pg/ml [136-790], p=0.007). However, preoperative NT-proBNP was not significantly higher in patients with an increased inotropic score, a prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time or an increased surgical risk category. Conclusions: An elevated preoperative NT-proBNP reflects hemodynamic status and cardiac dysfunction, and therefore is a valuable adjunct in predicting a complicated postoperative course. ___________________________________ Introduction: Le peptide natriurétique type B (BNP) est un marqueur reflétant le stress myocardique. Dans la population pédiatrique, la signification des valeurs préopératoire de BNP, en particulier sur l'évolution postopératoire, n'est pas clairement établie. Le but de l'étude est de déterminer la valeur prédictive de la partie NT sérique du BNP (NT-proBNP) sur l'évolution post opératoire d'enfants porteur d'une cardiopathie congénitale et ayant eu une chirurgie cardiaque. Résultats: Nonante-sept enfants ont été inclus dans l'étude, avec un âge médian de 3.3 ans [0.7-5.2]. La valeur médiane du NT-proBNP préopératoire était de 412 pg/ml [164-1309]. Le NT-proBNP préopératoire était supérieur au P95 des valeurs de référence pour l'âge chez 56 patients (58%). Le NT-proBNP préopératoire était significativement plus élevé chez les patients ayant eu plus de deux jours de ventilation mécanique dans la période postopératoire (1156 pg/ml [281-1951] vs. 267 pg/ml [136-790], p=0.003) et ayant été hospitalisés plus de 6 jours dans l'unité de soins intensifs pédiatrique (727 pg/ml [203-1951] vs. 256 pg/ml [136-790], p=0.007). Par contre, le NT-proBNP préopératoire n'était pas significativement plus élevé chez les patients ayant eu un score d'inotrope élevé pendant leur hospitalisation aux soins intensifs, un temps de circulation extracorporelle prolongé ou ayant subi une chirurgie avec un risque chirurgical élevé. Conclusions: Un NT-proBNP sérique élevé en préopératoire reflète l'importance du stress myocardique induit par l'hémodynamique et la dysfonction myocardique, il est un marqueur qui permet d'améliorer l'identification des patients à risque d'avoir une évolution post opératoire compliquée.

Predictive ability of heel quantitative ultrasound for incident fractures: an individual-level meta-analysis.

UNLABELLED: The relationship between bone quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and fracture risk was estimated in an individual level data meta-analysis of 9 prospective studies of 46,124 individuals and 3018 incident fractures. Low QUS is associated with an increase in fracture risk, including hip fracture. The association with osteoporotic fracture decreases with time. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate the association between parameters of QUS and risk of fracture. METHODS: In an individual-level analysis, we studied participants in nine prospective cohorts from Asia, Europe and North America. Heel broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA dB/MHz) and speed of sound (SOS m/s) were measured at baseline. Fractures during follow-up were collected by self-report and in some cohorts confirmed by radiography. An extension of Poisson regression was used to examine the gradient of risk (GR, hazard ratio per 1 SD decrease) between QUS and fracture risk adjusted for age and time since baseline in each cohort. Interactions between QUS and age and time since baseline were explored. RESULTS: Baseline measurements were available in 46,124 men and women, mean age 70 years (range 20-100). Three thousand and eighteen osteoporotic fractures (787 hip fractures) occurred during follow-up of 214,000 person-years. The summary GR for osteoporotic fracture was similar for both BUA (1.45, 95 % confidence intervals (CI) 1.40-1.51) and SOS (1.42, 95 % CI 1.36-1.47). For hip fracture, the respective GRs were 1.69 (95 % CI, 1.56-1.82) and 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.48-1.72). However, the GR was significantly higher for both fracture outcomes at lower baseline BUA and SOS (p < 0.001). The predictive value of QUS was the same for men and women and for all ages (p > 0.20), but the predictive value of both BUA and SOS for osteoporotic fracture decreased with time (p = 0.018 and p = 0.010, respectively). For example, the GR of BUA for osteoporotic fracture, adjusted for age, was 1.51 (95 % CI 1.42-1.61) at 1 year after baseline, but at 5 years, it was 1.36 (95 % CI 1.27-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that quantitative ultrasound is an independent predictor of fracture for men and women particularly at low QUS values.