A cumulative risk model of child physical maltreatment potential: findings from a community-based study

"Published online before print November 20, 2015"

The structural approach of a natrex model on equilibrium exchange rates

Following a general macroeconomic approach, this paper sets a closed micro-founded structural model to determine the long run real exchange rate of a developed economy. In particular, the analysis follows the structure of a Natrex model. The main contribution of this research paper is the development of a solid theoretical framework that analyse in depth the basis of the real exchange rate and the details of the equilibrium dynamics after any shock influencing the steady state. In our case, the intertemporal factors derived from the stock-flow relationship will be particularly determinant. The main results of the paper can be summarised as follows. In first place, a complete well-integrated structural model for long-run real exchange rate determination is developed from first principles. Moreover, within the concrete dynamics of the model, it is found that some convergence restrictions will be necessary. On one hand, for the medium run convergence the sensitivity of the trade balance to changes in real exchange rate should be higher that the correspondent one to the investment decisions. On the other hand, and regarding long-run convergence, it is also necessary both that there exists a negative relationship between investment and capital stock accumulation and that the global saving of the economy depends positively on net foreign debt accumulation. In addition, there are also interesting conclusions about the effects that certain shocks over the exogenous variables of the model have on real exchange rates.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

Financial intermediation in a model of growth through creative destruction

This paper presents an endogenous growth model in which the research activity is financed by intermediaries that are able to reduce the incidence of researcher's moral hazard. It is shown that financial activity is growth promoting because it increases research productivity. It is also found that a subsidy to the financial sector may have larger growth effects than a direct subsidy to research. Moreover, due to the presence of moral hazard, increasing the subsidy rate to R\&D may reduce the growth rate. I show that there exists a negative relation between the financing of innovation and the process of capital accumulation. Concerning welfare, the presence of two externalities of opposite sign steaming from financial activity may cause that the no-tax equilibrium provides an inefficient level of financial services. Thus, policies oriented to balance the effects of the two externalities will be welfare improving.

A marxian model of the breakdown of capitalism

This paper sets out a Marxian model that is based on the one by Stephen Marglin with one sector and continuous substitution. It is extended by adding technical progress and land as a factor of production. It is then shown that capital accumulation causes the preconditions for the breakdown of capitalism to emerge; that is, it causes the organic composition of capital to rise, the rate of profit to fall and the rate of exploitation to rise. A compressed history of the idea of the breakdown of capitalism is then set out and an explanation is given as to how the model relates to this and how it may serve as the basis for further research.

The relevance of post-match LTC: why has the Spanish labor market become as volatile as the US one?

We present a Search and Matching model with heterogeneous workers (entrants and incumbents) that replicates the stylized facts characterizing the US and the Spanish labor markets. Under this benchmark, we find the Post-Match Labor Turnover Costs (PMLTC) to be the centerpiece to explain why the Spanish labor market is as volatile as the US one. The two driving forces governing this volatility are the gaps between entrants and incumbents in terms of separation costs and productivity. We use the model to analyze the cyclical implications of changes in labor market institutions affecting these two gaps. The scenario with a low degree of workers’ heterogeneity illustrates its suitability to understand why the Spanish labor market has become as volatile as the US one.

Functional and histopathological identification of the respiratory failure in a DMSXL transgenic mouse model of myotonic dystrophy.

Acute and chronic respiratory failure is one of the major and potentially life-threatening features in individuals with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). Despite several clinical demonstrations showing respiratory problems in DM1 patients, the mechanisms are still not completely understood. This study was designed to investigate whether the DMSXL transgenic mouse model for DM1 exhibits respiratory disorders and, if so, to identify the pathological changes underlying these respiratory problems. Using pressure plethysmography, we assessed the breathing function in control mice and DMSXL mice generated after large expansions of the CTG repeat in successive generations of DM1 transgenic mice. Statistical analysis of breathing function measurements revealed a significant decrease in the most relevant respiratory parameters in DMSXL mice, indicating impaired respiratory function. Histological and morphometric analysis showed pathological changes in diaphragmatic muscle of DMSXL mice, characterized by an increase in the percentage of type I muscle fibers, the presence of central nuclei, partial denervation of end-plates (EPs) and a significant reduction in their size, shape complexity and density of acetylcholine receptors, all of which reflect a possible breakdown in communication between the diaphragmatic muscles fibers and the nerve terminals. Diaphragm muscle abnormalities were accompanied by an accumulation of mutant DMPK RNA foci in muscle fiber nuclei. Moreover, in DMSXL mice, the unmyelinated phrenic afferents are significantly lower. Also in these mice, significant neuronopathy was not detected in either cervical phrenic motor neurons or brainstem respiratory neurons. Because EPs are involved in the transmission of action potentials and the unmyelinated phrenic afferents exert a modulating influence on the respiratory drive, the pathological alterations affecting these structures might underlie the respiratory impairment detected in DMSXL mice. Understanding mechanisms of respiratory deficiency should guide pharmaceutical and clinical research towards better therapy for the respiratory deficits associated with DM1.

Dynamics of HIV latency and reactivation in a primary CD4+ T cell model.

HIV latency is a major obstacle to curing infection. Current strategies to eradicate HIV aim at increasing transcription of the latent provirus. In the present study we observed that latently infected CD4+ T cells from HIV-infected individuals failed to produce viral particles upon ex vivo exposure to SAHA (vorinostat), despite effective inhibition of histone deacetylases. To identify steps that were not susceptible to the action of SAHA or other latency reverting agents, we used a primary CD4+ T cell model, joint host and viral RNA sequencing, and a viral-encoded reporter. This model served to investigate the characteristics of latently infected cells, the dynamics of HIV latency, and the process of reactivation induced by various stimuli. During latency, we observed persistence of viral transcripts but only limited viral translation. Similarly, the reactivating agents SAHA and disulfiram successfully increased viral transcription, but failed to effectively enhance viral translation, mirroring the ex vivo data. This study highlights the importance of post-transcriptional blocks as one mechanism leading to HIV latency that needs to be relieved in order to purge the viral reservoir.

Aggregating Brain Cell Cultures as a Model to Study Ischaemia-induced Neurodegeneration.

Rotation-mediated aggregating brain cell cultures at two different maturational stages (DIV 11 and DIV 20) were subjected for 1 or 2 hours to ischaemic conditions by transient immobilization (arrest of media circulation). During recovery, cell damage was evaluated by measuring changes in cell type-specific enzyme activities and total protein content. It was found that in immature cultures (DIV 11), immobilization for 1 or 2 hours did not affect the parameters measured. By contrast, at DIV 20, ischaemic conditions for 1 hour caused a pronounced decrease in the activities of glutamic acid decarboxylase and choline acetyltransferase. A significant decrease in these neuron-specific enzyme activities was found at post-ischaemic days 1-14, indicating immediate and irreversible neuronal damage. The activity of the astrocyte-specific enzyme, glutamine synthetase, was significantly increased at 4 days post-treatment; equal to control values at 6 days; and significantly decreased at 14 days after the ischaemic insult. Immobilization of DIV 20 cultures for 2 hours caused a drastic reduction in all the parameters measured at post-ischaemic day 6. Generally, the ischaemic conditions appeared to be more detrimental to neurons than to astrocytes, and GABAergic neurons were more affected than cholinergic neurons.

Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model

This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

Human capital, social mobility and the skill premium

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to highlight the role of human capital accumulation of agents differentiated by skill type in the joint determination of social mobility and the skill premium. We first show that our model captures the empirical co-movement of the skill premium, the relative supply of skilled to unskilled workers and aggregate output in the U.S. data from 1970-2000. We next show that endogenous social mobility and human capital accumulation are key channels through which the effects of capital tax cuts and increases in public spending on both pre- and post-college education are transmitted. In particular, social mobility creates additional incentives for the agents which enhance the beneficial effects of policy reforms. Moreover, the dynamics of human capital accumulation imply that, post reform, the skill premium is higher in the short- to medium-run than in the long-run.

Replication of dengue viruses in mosquito cell cultures: a model from ultrastructural observations

Mosquito cell cultures infected with human sera from dengue-1 and dengue-2 outbreaks, started in Rio de Janeiro by 1986 and 1990 respectively, were examined by electron microscopy at different times post the infection of cell cultures. More information was obtained about cell penetration of virus particles in the presence or not of antibodies, their pathway inside the cells, replication mode and exit. Infectiveness of the virus at those different stages can only be attributed to the particles appearing inside the trans-Golgi vesicles; most of all newly formed virus particles remain inside the RER-derived cell vesicles or inside lysosomes, even during cell lysis. Groups of larges particles, 65-75 nm in diameter at dengue-2 infections, persist during cell passage. The large amounts of smooth membrane structures, as vesicles or tabules inside the RER are attributed to a cell response to viral infection.

First Report of a Newborn Rat Ventilation Model for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia Permitting Evaluation of Long-Term Outcome

Background: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) remains the leading cause of chronic pulmonary morbidity among preterm neonates. However, the exact pathophysiology is still unknown. Here we present the first results from a new model inteAbstracts, 25th International Workshop on Surfactant Replacement 400 Neonatology 2010;97:395-400 grating the most common risk factors for BPD (lung immaturity, inflammation, mechanical ventilation (MV), oxygen), which allows long-term outcome evaluation due to a non-traumatic intubation procedure. Objectives: To test the feasibility of a new rat model by investigating effects of MV, inflammation and oxygen applied to immature lungs after a ventilation-free interval. Methods: On day 4, 5, or 6 newborn rats were given an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharides to induce a systemic inflammation. 24 h later they were anesthetized, endotracheally intubated and ventilated for 8 h with 60% oxygen. After weaning of anesthesia and MV the newborn rats were extubated and returned to their mothers. Two days later they were killed and outcome measurements were performed (histology, quantitative RT-PCR) and compared to animals investigated directly after MV. Results: Directly after MV, histological signs of ventilator-induced lung injury were found. After 48 h, the first signs of early BPD were seen with delayed alveolar formation. Expression of inflammatory genes was only transiently increased. After 48 h genes involved in alveolarization, such as matrix metalloproteinase-9 and tropoelastin, showed a significant change of their expression. Conclusion: For the first time we can evaluate in a newborn rat model the effects of MV after a ventilation-free interval. This allows discrimination between immediate response genes and delayed changes of expression of more structural genes involved in alveolarization.

A peripheral dose calculation model for estimating second cancer risk after breast radiotherapy

AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.

Ultrastructural study on experimental infection of rotavirus in a murine heterologous model

Viral replication, histopathological and ultrastructural changes were observed for a period of nine days in the small intestine of suckling mice infected with a simian rotavirus (SA11). Samples taken from duodenum, jejunun and ileum were prepared for light microscopy, transmission and scanning electron microscopy analysis. Histopathologic effect could be detected within 8 hr post-infection, when only a few altered cells were observed. Damage was extensive after 16 hr post-infection, showing swollen enterocytes and reduced and irregularly oriented microvilli at intestinal villi tips. Virus particles were detected at 16 and 48 hr post-infection, budding from the viroplasm into the rough endoplasmic reticulum cisternae in ileum enterocytes. Clear evidence of viral replication, observed by electron microscopy was not described before in heterologous murine models. Regeneration of the intestinal villi began at the third day post-infection. Despite some differences observed in clinical symptoms and microscopic analysis of homologous and heterologous rotavirus infections, we concluded that mechanisms of heterologous rotavirus infection in mice follow similar patterns to those observed in the homologous models.