Uncertainty Quantification in Helicopter Performance Using Monte Carlo Simulations

The effect of structural and aerodynamic uncertainties on the performance predictions of a helicopter is investigated. An aerodynamic model based on blade element and momentum theory is used to predict the helicopter performance. The aeroelastic parameters, such as blade chord, rotor radius, two-dimensional lift-curve slope, blade profile drag coefficient, rotor angular velocity, blade pitch angle, and blade twist rate per radius of the rotor, are considered as random variables. The propagation of these uncertainties to the performance parameters, such as thrust coefficient and power coefficient, are studied using Monte Carlo Simulations. The simulations are performed with 100,000 samples of structural and aerodynamic uncertain variables with a coefficient of variation ranging from 1 to 5%. The scatter in power predictions in hover, axial climb, and forward flight for the untwisted and linearly twisted blades is studied. It is found that about 20-25% excess power can be required by the helicopter relative to the determination predictions due to uncertainties.

Representation of evidence: An approach to uncertainty handling in knowledge-based systems

Many knowledge based systems (KBS) transform a situation information into an appropriate decision using an in built knowledge base. As the knowledge in real world situation is often uncertain, the degree of truth of a proposition provides a measure of uncertainty in the underlying knowledge. This uncertainty can be evaluated by collecting `evidence' about the truth or falsehood of the proposition from multiple sources. In this paper we propose a simple framework for representing uncertainty in using the notion of an evidence space.

Uncertainty visualization using HDR volume rendering

In this paper, we explore a novel idea of using high dynamic range (HDR) technology for uncertainty visualization. We focus on scalar volumetric data sets where every data point is associated with scalar uncertainty. We design a transfer function that maps each data point to a color in HDR space. The luminance component of the color is exploited to capture uncertainty. We modify existing tone mapping techniques and suitably integrate them with volume ray casting to obtain a low dynamic range (LDR) image. The resulting image is displayed on a conventional 8-bits-per-channel display device. The usage of HDR mapping reveals fine details in uncertainty distribution and enables the users to interactively study the data in the context of corresponding uncertainty information. We demonstrate the utility of our method and evaluate the results using data sets from ocean modeling.

The Contribution of Rare Species to Community Phylogenetic Diversity across a Global Network of Forest Plots

Niche differentiation has been proposed as an explanation for rarity in species assemblages. To test this hypothesis requires quantifying the ecological similarity of species. This similarity can potentially be estimated by using phylogenetic relatedness. In this study, we predicted that if niche differentiation does explain the co-occurrence of rare and common species, then rare species should contribute greatly to the overall community phylogenetic diversity (PD), abundance will have phylogenetic signal, and common and rare species will be phylogenetically dissimilar. We tested these predictions by developing a novel method that integrates species rank abundance distributions with phylogenetic trees and trend analyses, to examine the relative contribution of individual species to the overall community PD. We then supplement this approach with analyses of phylogenetic signal in abundances and measures of phylogenetic similarity within and between rare and common species groups. We applied this analytical approach to 15 long-term temperate and tropical forest dynamics plots from around the world. We show that the niche differentiation hypothesis is supported in six of the nine gap-dominated forests but is rejected in the six disturbance-dominated and three gap-dominated forests. We also show that the three metrics utilized in this study each provide unique but corroborating information regarding the phylogenetic distribution of rarity in communities.

Efficient Methods for Robust Classification Under Uncertainty in Kernel Matrices

In this paper we study the problem of designing SVM classifiers when the kernel matrix, K, is affected by uncertainty. Specifically K is modeled as a positive affine combination of given positive semi definite kernels, with the coefficients ranging in a norm-bounded uncertainty set. We treat the problem using the Robust Optimization methodology. This reduces the uncertain SVM problem into a deterministic conic quadratic problem which can be solved in principle by a polynomial time Interior Point (IP) algorithm. However, for large-scale classification problems, IP methods become intractable and one has to resort to first-order gradient type methods. The strategy we use here is to reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain SVM problem as a saddle point problem and employ a special gradient scheme which works directly on the convex-concave saddle function. The algorithm is a simplified version of a general scheme due to Juditski and Nemirovski (2011). It achieves an O(1/T-2) reduction of the initial error after T iterations. A comprehensive empirical study on both synthetic data and real-world protein structure data sets show that the proposed formulations achieve the desired robustness, and the saddle point based algorithm outperforms the IP method significantly.

Material uncertainty effect on vibration control of smart composite plate using polynomial chaos expansion

Polynomial Chaos Expansion with Latin Hypercube sampling is used to study the effect of material uncertainty on vibration control of a smart composite plate with piezoelectric sensors/actuators. Composite material properties and piezoelectric coefficients are considered as independent and normally distributed random variables. Numerical results show substantial variation in structural dynamic response due to material uncertainty of active vibration control system. This change in response due to material uncertainty can be compensated by actively tuning the feedback control system. Numerical results also show variation in dispersion of dynamic characteristics and control parameters with respect to ply angle and stacking sequence.

Minimum uncertainty and entanglement

We address the question, does a system A being entangled with another system B, put any constraints on the Heisenberg uncertainty relation (or the Schrodinger-Robertson inequality)? We find that the equality of the uncertainty relation cannot be reached for any two noncommuting observables, for finite dimensional Hilbert spaces if the Schmidt rank of the entangled state is maximal. One consequence is that the lower bound of the uncertainty relation can never be attained for any two observables for qubits, if the state is entangled. For infinite-dimensional Hilbert space too, we show that there is a class of physically interesting entangled states for which no two noncommuting observables can attain the minimum uncertainty equality.

Phylogenetic analysis and molecular dating suggest that hemidactylus anamallensis is not a member of the hemidactylus radiation and has an ancient late cretaceous origin

Background of the Work: The phylogenetic position and evolution of Hemidactylus anamallensis (family Gekkonidae) has been much debated in recent times. In the past it has been variously assigned to genus Hoplodactylus (Diplodactylidae) as well as a monotypic genus `Dravidogecko' (Gekkonidae). Since 1995, this species has been assigned to Hemidactylus, but there is much disagreement between authors regarding its phylogenetic position within this genus. In a recent molecular study H. anamallensis was sister to Hemidactylus but appeared distinct from it in both mitochondrial and nuclear markers. However, this study did not include genera closely allied to Hemidactylus, thus a robust evaluation of this hypothesis was not undertaken. Methods: The objective of this study was to investigate the phylogenetic position of H. anamallensis within the gekkonid radiation. To this end, several nuclear and mitochondrial markers were sequenced from H. anamallensis, selected members of the Hemidactylus radiation and genera closely allied to Hemidactylus. These sequences in conjunction with published sequences were subjected to multiple phylogenetic analyses. Furthermore the nuclear dataset was also subjected to molecular dating analysis to ascertain the divergence between H. anamallensis and related genera. Results and Conclusion: Results showed that H. anamallensis lineage was indeed sister to Hemidactylus group but was separated from the rest of the Hemidactylus by a long branch. The divergence estimates supported a scenario wherein H. anamallensis dispersed across a marine barrier to the drifting peninsular Indian plate in the late Cretaceous whereas Hemidactylus arrived on the peninsular India after the Indian plate collided with the Eurasian plate. Based on these molecular evidence and biogeographical scenario we suggest that the genus Dravidogecko should be resurrected.

MINIMUM UNCERTAINTY AND ENTANGLEMENT

We address the question, does a system A being entangled with another system B, put any constraints on the Heisenberg uncertainty relation (or the Schrodinger-Robertson inequality)? We find that the equality of the uncertainty relation cannot be reached for any two noncommuting observables, for finite dimensional Hilbert spaces if the Schmidt rank of the entangled state is maximal. One consequence is that the lower bound of the uncertainty relation can never be attained for any two observables for qubits, if the state is entangled. For infinite-dimensional Hilbert space too, we show that there is a class of physically interesting entangled states for which no two noncommuting observables can attain the minimum uncertainty equality.

Spatial Wavelet Approach to Local Matrix Crack Detection in Composite Beams with Ply Level Material Uncertainty

Wavelet coefficients based on spatial wavelets are used as damage indicators to identify the damage location as well as the size of the damage in a laminated composite beam with localized matrix cracks. A finite element model of the composite beam is used in conjunction with a matrix crack based damage model to simulate the damaged composite beam structure. The modes of vibration of the beam are analyzed using the wavelet transform in order to identify the location and the extent of the damage by sensing the local perturbations at the damage locations. The location of the damage is identified by a sudden change in spatial distribution of wavelet coefficients. Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) are used to investigate the effect of ply level uncertainty in composite material properties such as ply longitudinal stiffness, transverse stiffness, shear modulus and Poisson's ratio on damage detection parameter, wavelet coefficient. In this study, numerical simulations are done for single and multiple damage cases. It is observed that spatial wavelets can be used as a reliable damage detection tool for composite beams with localized matrix cracks which can result from low velocity impact damage.

Phylogenetic relationships and classification of thiolases and thiolase-like proteins of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Mycobacterium smegmatis

Thiolases are enzymes involved in lipid metabolism. Thiolases remove the acetyl-CoA moiety from 3-ketoacyl-CoAs in the degradative reaction. They can also catalyze the reverse Claisen condensation reaction, which is the first step of biosynthetic processes such as the biosynthesis of sterols and ketone bodies. In human, six distinct thiolases have been identified. Each of these thiolases is different from the other with respect to sequence, oligomeric state, substrate specificity and subcellular localization. Four sequence fingerprints, identifying catalytic loops of thiolases, have been described. In this study genome searches of two mycobacterial species (Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Mycobacterium smegmatis), were carried out, using the six human thiolase sequences as queries. Eight and thirteen different thiolase sequences were identified in M. tuberculosis and M. smegmatis, respectively. In addition, thiolase-like proteins (one encoded in the Mtb and two in the Msm genome) were found. The purpose of this study is to classify these mostly uncharacterized thiolases and thiolase-like proteins. Several other sequences obtained by searches of genome databases of bacteria, mammals and the parasitic protist family of the Trypanosomatidae were included in the analysis. Thiolase-like proteins were also found in the trypanosomatid genomes, but not in those of mammals. In order to study the phylogenetic relationships at a high confidence level, additional thiolase sequences were included such that a total of 130 thiolases and thiolase-like protein sequences were used for the multiple sequence alignment. The resulting phylogenetic tree identifies 12 classes of sequences, each possessing a characteristic set of sequence fingerprints for the catalytic loops. From this analysis it is now possible to assign the mycobacterial thiolases to corresponding homologues in other kingdoms of life. The results of this bioinformatics analysis also show interesting differences between the distributions of M. tuberculosis and M. smegmatis thiolases over the 12 different classes. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simulation-based algorithm for optimal pricing policy under demand uncertainty

We propose a simulation-based algorithm for computing the optimal pricing policy for a product under uncertain demand dynamics. We consider a parameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the uncertain demand dynamics of the product over the planning horizon. In particular, we consider a dynamic model that is an extension of the Bass model. The performance of our algorithm is compared to that of a myopic pricing policy and is shown to give better results. Two significant advantages with our algorithm are as follows: (a) it does not require information on the system model parameters if the SDE system state is known via either a simulation device or real data, and (b) as it works efficiently even for high-dimensional parameters, it uses the efficient smoothed functional gradient estimator.

Lineage delimitation and description of nine new species of bush frogs (Anura: Raorchestes, Rhacophoridae) from the Western Ghats Escarpment

Bush frogs of the genus Raorchestes are distributed mainly in the Western Ghats Escarpment of Peninsular India. The inventory of species in this genus is incomplete and there is ambiguity in the systematic status of species recognized by morphological criteria. To address the dual problem of taxon sampling and systematic uncertainty in bush frogs, we used a large-scale spatial sampling design, explicitly incorporating the geographic and ecological heterogeneity of the Western Ghats. We then used a hierarchical multi-criteria approach by combining mitochondrial phylogeny, genetic distance, geographic range, morphology and advertisement call to delimit bush frog lineages. Our analyses revealed the existence of a large number of new lineages with varying levels of genetic divergence. Here, we provide diagnoses and descriptions for nine lineages that exhibit divergence across multiple axes. The discovery of new lineages that exhibit high divergence across wide ranges of elevation and across the major massifs highlights the large gaps in historical sampling. These discoveries underscore the significance of addressing inadequate knowledge of species distribution, namely the ``Wallacean shortfall'', in addressing the problem of taxon sampling and unknown diversity in tropical hotspots. A biogeographically informed sampling and analytical approach was critical in detecting and delineating lineages in a consistent manner across the genus. Through increased taxon sampling, we were also able to discern a number of well-supported sub-clades that were either unresolved or absent in earlier phylogenetic reconstructions and identify a number of shallow divergent lineages which require further examination for assessment of their taxonomic status.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An island called India: phylogenetic patterns across multiple taxonomic groups reveal endemic radiations

Island systems from around the world have provided fascinating opportunities for studies pertaining to various evolutionary processes. One recurring feature of isolated islands is the presence of endemic radiations. In this regard, the Indian subcontinent is an interesting entity given it has been an island during much of its history following separation from Madagascar and currently is isolated from much of Eurasia by the Himalayas in the north and the Indian Ocean in the south. Not surprisingly, recent molecular studies on a number of endemic taxa from India have reported endemic radiations. These studies suggest that the uniqueness of Indian biota is not just due to its diverse origin, but also due to evolution in isolation. The isolation of India has generated some peculiarities typically seen on oceanic islands. However, these patterns might be confined to, groups with low dispersal ability.