Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An Anisotropic Model of Damage and Unilateral Effect for Brittle Materials

This work deals with the initial applications and formulation of an aniscitropic plastic-damage constitutive model proposed for non-linear analysis of reinforced concrete structures submitted to a loading with change of the sign. The original constitutive model is based on the fundamental hypothesis of energy equivalence between real and continuous medium following the concepts of the Continuum Damage Mechanics. The concrete is assumed as an initial elastic isotropic medium presenting anisotropy, permanent strains and bimodularity (distinct elastic responses whether traction or compression stress states prevail) induced by damage evolution. In order to take into account the bimodularity, two damage tensors governing the rigidity in tension or compression regimes are introduced. Then, some conditions are introduced in the original version of the model in order to simulate the damage unilateral effect. The three-dimensional version of the proposed model is analyzed in order to validate its formulation when compared to micromechanical theory. The one-dimensional version of the model is applied in the analyses of a reinforced concrete beam submitted to a loading with change of the sign. Despite the parametric identification problems, the initial applications show the good performance of the model.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Heat transfer in fixed bed: a model non-linearity approach

Studies have been carried out on the heat transfer in a packed bed of glass beads percolated by air at moderate flow rates. Rigorous statistic analysis of the experimental data was carried out and the traditional two parameter model was used to represent them. The parameters estimated were the effective radial thermal conductivity, k, and the wall coefficient, h, through the least squares method. The results were evaluated as to the boundary bed inlet temperature, T-o, number of terms of the solution series and number of experimental points used in the estimate. Results indicated that a small difference in T-o was sufficient to promote great modifications in the estimated parameters and in the statistical properties of the model. The use of replicas at points of high parametric information of the model improved the results, although analysis of the residuals has resulted in the rejection of this alternative. In order to evaluate cion-linearity of the model, Bates and Watts (1988) curvature measurements and the Box (1971) biases of the coefficients were calculated. The intrinsic curvatures of the model (IN) tend to be concentrated at low bed heights and those due to parameter effects (PE) are spread all over the bed. The Box biases indicated both parameters as responsible for the curvatures PE, h being somewhat more problematic. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust control to parametric uncertainties in smart structures using linear matrix inequalities

The study of algorithms for active vibrations control in flexible structures became an area of enormous interest, mainly due to the countless demands of an optimal performance of mechanical systems as aircraft and aerospace structures. Smart structures, formed by a structure base, coupled with piezoelectric actuators and sensor are capable to guarantee the conditions demanded through the application of several types of controllers. This article shows some steps that should be followed in the design of a smart structure. It is discussed: the optimal placement of actuators, the model reduction and the controller design through techniques involving linear matrix inequalities (LMI). It is considered as constraints in LMI: the decay rate, voltage input limitation in the actuators and bounded output peak (output energy). Two controllers robust to parametric variation are designed: the first one considers the actuator in non-optimal location and the second one the actuator is put in an optimal placement. The performance are compared and discussed. The simulations to illustrate the methodology are made with a cantilever beam with bonded piezoelectric actuators.

Modifying the stochastic model to mitigate GPS systematic errors in relative positioning

The GPS observables are subject to several errors. Among them, the systematic ones have great impact, because they degrade the accuracy of the accomplished positioning. These errors are those related, mainly, to GPS satellites orbits, multipath and atmospheric effects. Lately, a method has been suggested to mitigate these errors: the semiparametric model and the penalised least squares technique (PLS). In this method, the errors are modeled as functions varying smoothly in time. It is like to change the stochastic model, in which the errors functions are incorporated, the results obtained are similar to those in which the functional model is changed. As a result, the ambiguities and the station coordinates are estimated with better reliability and accuracy than the conventional least square method (CLS). In general, the solution requires a shorter data interval, minimizing costs. The method performance was analyzed in two experiments, using data from single frequency receivers. The first one was accomplished with a short baseline, where the main error was the multipath. In the second experiment, a baseline of 102 km was used. In this case, the predominant errors were due to the ionosphere and troposphere refraction. In the first experiment, using 5 minutes of data collection, the largest coordinates discrepancies in relation to the ground truth reached 1.6 cm and 3.3 cm in h coordinate for PLS and the CLS, respectively, in the second one, also using 5 minutes of data, the discrepancies were 27 cm in h for the PLS and 175 cm in h for the CLS. In these tests, it was also possible to verify a considerable improvement in the ambiguities resolution using the PLS in relation to the CLS, with a reduced data collection time interval. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.

State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) control method applied in cancellation of a parametric resonance in a magnetically levitated body

Here, a simplified dynamical model of a magnetically levitated body is considered. The origin of an inertial Cartesian reference frame is set at the pivot point of the pendulum on the levitated body in its static equilibrium state (ie, the gap between the magnet on the base and the magnet on the body, in this state). The governing equations of motion has been derived and the characteristic feature of the strategy is the exploitation of the nonlinear effect of the inertial force associated, with the motion of a pendulum-type vibration absorber driven, by an appropriate control torque [4]. In the present paper, we analyzed the nonlinear dynamics of problem, discussed the energy transfer between the main system and the pendulum in time, and developed State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) control design to reducing the unstable oscillatory movement of the magnetically levitated body to a stable fixed point. The simulations results showed the effectiveness of the (SDRE) control design. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Tm-afm nonlinear motion control with robustness analysis to parametric errors in the control signal determination

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Raloxifene modulates regulators of osteoclastogenesis and angiogenesis in an oestrogen deficiency periapical lesion model

Aim To analyse the local regulatory mechanisms of osteoclastogenesis and angiogenesis during the progression of periapical lesions in female rats with oestrogen deficiency and treatment with raloxifene (RLX). Methodology Female Wistar rats were distributed into groups: SHAM-veh, subjected to sham surgery and treated with a vehicle; OVX-veh, subjected to ovary removal and treated with a vehicle; and OVX-RLX, subjected to ovary removal and treated with RLX. Vehicle or RLX was administered orally for 90 days. During treatment, the dental pulp of mandibular first molars was exposed to the oral environment for induction of periapical lesions, which were analysed after 7 and 30 days. After the experimental periods, blood samples were collected for measurement of oestradiol, calcium, phosphorus and alkaline phosphatase. The rats were euthanized and the mandibles removed and processed for immunohistochemical detection of receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL), osteoprotegerin (OPG), hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1α) and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP). Data were compared using Kruskal–Wallis followed by Dunn test (nonparametric values) and anova followed by the Tukey's test (parametric values). Results The plasma concentration of oestradiol showed hypo-oestrogenism in the rats subjected to ovary removal. On day 7, alkaline phosphatase activity, calcium and phosphorus were higher in the OVX-RLX group than in the OVX-veh group (P < 0.001), but immunolabelling for RANKL and HIF-1α was lower in OVX-RLX group (P < 0.001). On day 30, the OVX-veh group had higher immunolabelling for RANKL than the OVX-RLX group (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in the immunoreactivity of OPG and BALP between any groups at either time-point (P > 0.05). Conclusion RLX therapy reversed the increased levels of the local regulators of both osteoclastogenesis and angiogenesis induced by oestrogen deficiency.

The dynamic behavior of a parametrically excited time-periodic MEMS taking into account parametric errors

Micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) are micro scale devices that are able to convert electrical energy into mechanical energy or vice versa. In this paper, the mathematical model of an electronic circuit of a resonant MEMS mass sensor, with time-periodic parametric excitation, was analyzed and controlled by Chebyshev polynomial expansion of the Picard interaction and Lyapunov-Floquet transformation, and by Optimal Linear Feedback Control (OLFC). Both controls consider the union of feedback and feedforward controls. The feedback control obtained by Picard interaction and Lyapunov-Floquet transformation is the first strategy and the optimal control theory the second strategy. Numerical simulations show the efficiency of the two control methods, as well as the sensitivity of each control strategy to parametric errors. Without parametric errors, both control strategies were effective in maintaining the system in the desired orbit. On the other hand, in the presence of parametric errors, the OLFC technique was more robust.

Thermodynamics of Ising model with infinite-range interactions by generalized canonical ensemble

In this work we present the idea of how generalized ensembles can be used to simplify the operational study of non-additive physical systems. As alternative of the usual methods of direct integration or mean-field theory, we show how the solution of the Ising model with infinite-range interactions is obtained by using a generalized canonical ensemble. We describe how the thermodynamical properties of this model in the presence of an external magnetic field are founded by simple parametric equations. Without impairing the usual interpretation, we obtain an identical critical behaviour as observed in traditional approaches.

The log-exponentiated generalized gamma regression model for censored data

For the first time, we introduce a generalized form of the exponentiated generalized gamma distribution [Cordeiro et al. The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (2011), pp. 827-842.] that is the baseline for the log-exponentiated generalized gamma regression model. The new distribution can accommodate increasing, decreasing, bathtub- and unimodal-shaped hazard functions. A second advantage is that it includes classical distributions reported in the lifetime literature as special cases. We obtain explicit expressions for the moments of the baseline distribution of the new regression model. The proposed model can be applied to censored data since it includes as sub-models several widely known regression models. It therefore can be used more effectively in the analysis of survival data. We obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters by considering censored data. We show that our extended regression model is very useful by means of two applications to real data.

Longitudinal familial analysis of blood pressure involving parametric (co)variance functions

Abstract Background For analyzing longitudinal familial data we adopted a log-linear form to incorporate heterogeneity in genetic variance components over the time, and additionally a serial correlation term in the genetic effects at different levels of ages. Due to the availability of multiple measures on the same individual, we permitted environmental correlations that may change across time. Results Systolic blood pressure from family members from the first and second cohort was used in the current analysis. Measures of subjects receiving hypertension treatment were set as censored values and they were corrected. An initial check of the variance and covariance functions proposed for analyzing longitudinal familial data, using empirical semi-variogram plots, indicated that the observed trait dispersion pattern follows the assumptions adopted. Conclusion The corrections for censored phenotypes based on ordinary linear models may be an appropriate simple model to correct the data, ensuring that the original variability in the data was retained. In addition, empirical semi-variogram plots are useful for diagnosis of the (co)variance model adopted.

Effect of parametric uncertainties on the performance of a piezoelectric energy harvesting device

The use of piezoelectric materials for the development of electromechanical devices for the harvesting or scavenging of ambient vibrations has been extensively studied over the last decade. The energy conversion from mechanical (vibratory) to electrical energy is provided by the electromechanical coupling between mechanical strains/stresses and electric charges/voltages in the piezoelectric material. The majority of the studies found in the open literature present a tip-mass cantilever piezoelectric device tuned on the operating frequency. Although recent results show that these devices can be quite effective for harvesting small amounts of electrical energy, little has been published on the robustness of these devices or on the effect of parametric uncertainties on the energy harvested. This work focuses on a cantilever plate with bonded piezoelectric patches and a tip-mass serving as an energy harvesting device. The rectifier and storage electric circuit was replaced by a resistive circuit (R). In addition, an alternative to improve the harvesting performance by adding an inductance in series to the harvesting circuit, thus leading to a resonant circuit (RL), is considered. A coupled finite element model leading to mechanical (displacements) and electrical (charges at electrodes) degrees of freedom is considered. An analysis of the effect of parametric uncertainties of the device on the electric output is performed. Piezoelectric and dielectric constants of the piezoelectric active layers and electric circuit equivalent inductance are considered as stochastic parameters. Mean and confidence intervals of the electric output are evaluated.