Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Detecting epistasis with restricted response patterns in pairs of biallelic loci.

Well-established examples of genetic epistasis between a pair of loci typically show characteristic patterns of phenotypic distributions in joint genotype tables. However, inferring epistasis given such data is difficult due to the lack of power in commonly used approaches, which decompose the epistatic patterns into main plus interaction effects followed by testing the interaction term. Testing additive-only or all terms may have more power, but they are sensitive to nonepistatic patterns. Alternatively, the epistatic patterns of interest can be enumerated and the best matching one is found by searching through the possibilities. Although this approach requires multiple testing correction over possible patterns, each pattern can be fitted with a regression model with just one degree of freedom and thus the overall power can still be high, if the number of possible patterns is limited. Here we compare the power of the linear decomposition and pattern search methods, by applying them to simulated data generated under several patterns of joint genotype effects with simple biological interpretations. Interaction-only tests are the least powerful; while pattern search approach is the most powerful if the range of possibilities is restricted, but still includes the true pattern.

Long-term effects of cannabis on brain structure.

The dose-dependent toxicity of the main psychoactive component of cannabis in brain regions rich in cannabinoid CB1 receptors is well known in animal studies. However, research in humans does not show common findings across studies regarding the brain regions that are affected after long-term exposure to cannabis. In the present study, we investigate (using Voxel-based Morphometry) gray matter changes in a group of regular cannabis smokers in comparison with a group of occasional smokers matched by the years of cannabis use. We provide evidence that regular cannabis use is associated with gray matter volume reduction in the medial temporal cortex, temporal pole, parahippocampal gyrus, insula, and orbitofrontal cortex; these regions are rich in cannabinoid CB1 receptors and functionally associated with motivational, emotional, and affective processing. Furthermore, these changes correlate with the frequency of cannabis use in the 3 months before inclusion in the study. The age of onset of drug use also influences the magnitude of these changes. Significant gray matter volume reduction could result either from heavy consumption unrelated to the age of onset or instead from recreational cannabis use initiated at an adolescent age. In contrast, the larger gray matter volume detected in the cerebellum of regular smokers without any correlation with the monthly consumption of cannabis may be related to developmental (ontogenic) processes that occur in adolescence.

Chemical and carbon isotopic evolution of hydrocarbons during prograde metamorphism from 100°C to 550°C: Case study in the Liassic black shale formation of Central Swiss Alps

Hydrocarbon distributions and stable isotope ratios of carbonates (delta(13)C(car), delta(18)O(car)), kerogen (delta(13)C(ker)), extractable organic matter (delta(13)C(EOM)) and individual hydrocarbons of Liassic black shale samples from a prograde metamorphic sequence in the Swiss Alps were used to identify the major organic reactions with increasing metamorphic grade. The studied samples range from the diagenetic zone (< 100 degrees C) to amphibolite facies (similar to 550 degrees C). The samples within the diagenetic zones (< 100 and 150 degrees C) are characterized by the dominance of C-< 20 n-alkanes, suggesting an origin related with marine and/or bacterial inputs. The metamorphic samples (200 to 550 degrees C) have distributions significantly dominated by C-12 and C-13 n-alkanes, C-14, C-16 and C-18 n-alkylcyclopentanes and to a lesser extend C-15, C-17 and C-21 n-alkylcyclohexanes. The progressive C-13-enrichment (up to 3.9 parts per thousand) with metamorphism of the C-> 17 n-alkanes suggests the occurrence of cracking reactions of high molecular weight compounds. The isotopically heavier (up to 5.6 parts per thousand) C-< 17 n-alkanes in metamorphic samples are likely originated by thermal degradation of long-chain homologous with preferential release of isotopically light C-1 and C-2 radicals. The dominance of specific even C-number n-alkylcyclopentanes suggests an origin related to direct cyclization mechanism (without decarboxylation step) of algal or bacterial fatty acids occurring in reducing aqueous metamorphic fluid conditions. The regular increase of the concentrations of n-alkylcycloalkanes vs. C-> 13 n-alkanes with metamorphism suggests progressive thermal release of kerogen-linked fatty acid precursors and degradation of n-alkanes. Changes of the steroid and terpenoid distributions are clearly related to increasing metamorphic temperatures. The absence of 18 alpha(H)-22,29,30-trisnorneohopane (Ts), the occurrence of 17 beta(H)-trisnorhopane, 17 beta(H), 21 alpha(H)-hopanes in the C-29 to C-31 range and 5 alpha(H),14 alpha(H),17 alpha(H)-20R C-27, C-29 steranes in the low diagenetic samples (< 100 degrees C) are characteristic of immature bitumens. The higher thermal stress within the upper diagenetic zone (150 degrees C) is marked by the presence of Ts, the disappearance of 17 beta(H)-trisnorhopane and thermodynamic equilibrium of the 22S/(22S + 22R) homohopane ratios. The increase of the alpha alpha alpha-sterane 20S/(20S + 20R) and 20R beta beta/(beta beta + alpha alpha) ratios (from 0.0 to 0.55 and from 0.0 to 0.40, respectively) in the upper diagenetic zone indicates the occurrence of isomerization reactions already at < 150 degrees C. However, the isomerization at C-20 (R -> S) reaches thermodynamic equilibrium values already at the upper diagenesis (similar to 150 degrees C) whereas the epimerisation at C-14 and C-17 (alpha alpha ->beta beta) arrives to constant values in the lower anchizone (similar to 200 degrees C). The ratios Ts vs. 17 alpha(H)-22,29,30-trisnorneohopane [(Ts/(Ts + Tm)] and 18 alpha(H)-30-norneohopane (C29Ts) vs. 17 alpha(H),21 beta(H)-30-norhopane [C29Ts/(C29Ts + C-29)] increase until the medium anchizone (200 to 250 degrees C) from 0.0 to 0.96 and from 0.0 to 0.44, respectively. An opposite trend owards lower values is observed in the higher metamorphic samples. The occurrence of specific hydrocarbons (e.g., n-alkylcyclopentanes, cadalene, hydrogenated aromatic compounds) in metamorphic samples points to kerogen degradation reactions most probably occurring in the presence of water and under reducing conditions. The changes of hydrocarbon distributions and carbon isotopic compositions of n-alkanes related to metamorphism suggest that the organic geochemistry may help to evaluate the lowest grades of prograde metamorphism. Copyright (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd.

Statistical tests for scaling in the inter-event times of earthquakes in California

We explore in depth the validity of a recently proposed scaling law for earthquake inter-event time distributions in the case of the Southern California, using the waveform cross-correlation catalog of Shearer et al. Two statistical tests are used: on the one hand, the standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is in agreement with the scaling of the distributions. On the other hand, the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic complemented with Monte Carlo simulation of the inter-event times, as done by Clauset et al., supports the validity of the gamma distribution as a simple model of the scaling function appearing on the scaling law, for rescaled inter-event times above 0.01, except for the largest data set (magnitude greater than 2). A discussion of these results is provided.

Glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome: the expanding clinical and genetic spectrum of a treatable disorder.

Glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome is caused by mutations in the SLC2A1 gene in the majority of patients and results in impaired glucose transport into the brain. From 2004-2008, 132 requests for mutational analysis of the SLC2A1 gene were studied by automated Sanger sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. Mutations in the SLC2A1 gene were detected in 54 patients (41%) and subsequently in three clinically affected family members. In these 57 patients we identified 49 different mutations, including six multiple exon deletions, six known mutations and 37 novel mutations (13 missense, five nonsense, 13 frame shift, four splice site and two translation initiation mutations). Clinical data were retrospectively collected from referring physicians by means of a questionnaire. Three different phenotypes were recognized: (i) the classical phenotype (84%), subdivided into early-onset (<2 years) (65%) and late-onset (18%); (ii) a non-classical phenotype, with mental retardation and movement disorder, without epilepsy (15%); and (iii) one adult case of glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome with minimal symptoms. Recognizing glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome is important, since a ketogenic diet was effective in most of the patients with epilepsy (86%) and also reduced movement disorders in 48% of the patients with a classical phenotype and 71% of the patients with a non-classical phenotype. The average delay in diagnosing classical glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome was 6.6 years (range 1 month-16 years). Cerebrospinal fluid glucose was below 2.5 mmol/l (range 0.9-2.4 mmol/l) in all patients and cerebrospinal fluid : blood glucose ratio was below 0.50 in all but one patient (range 0.19-0.52). Cerebrospinal fluid lactate was low to normal in all patients. Our relatively large series of 57 patients with glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome allowed us to identify correlations between genotype, phenotype and biochemical data. Type of mutation was related to the severity of mental retardation and the presence of complex movement disorders. Cerebrospinal fluid : blood glucose ratio was related to type of mutation and phenotype. In conclusion, a substantial number of the patients with glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome do not have epilepsy. Our study demonstrates that a lumbar puncture provides the diagnostic clue to glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome and can thereby dramatically reduce diagnostic delay to allow early start of the ketogenic diet.

Asthme a début tardif [Late-onset asthma].

Late-onset asthma is a common disease, with characteristics that differentiate it from childhood asthma persisting in adults, including a heterogeneity of underlying mechanism, a correlation with occupational exposure and the tendency to chronicize. Inadequate perception of the disease importance and difficulties in diagnosis, due to the association to COPD, the broad differential diagnosis spectrum and an atypical clinical manifestation, make this disease entity underdiagnosed and under-treated, with consequences for morbidity and mortality. The treatment of adults with asthma follows the usual guidelines, but must take into account an occasional poor therapeutic response and the risk of side effects in polymorbid patients.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

From Naples 1963 to Rome 2013 - A brief review of how the International Research Group on Ostracoda (IRGO) developed as a social communication system

The 1st International Symposium on Ostracoda (ISO) was held in Naples (1963). The philosophy behind this symposium and the logical outcome of what is now known as the International Research Group on Ostracoda (IRGO) is here reviewed, namely ostracodology over the last 50 years is sociologically analysed. Three different and important historic moments for the scientific achievements of this domain are recognised. The first one, between about 1963-1983, is related to applied research for the oil industry as well as to the great interest in the better description of the marine environment by both zoologists and palaeontologists. Another important aspect during this period was the work by researchers dealing with Palaeozoic ostracods, who had their own discussion group, IRGPO. Gradually, the merger of this latter group with those dealing with post-Palaeozoic ostracods at various meetings improved communication between the two groups of specialists. A second period was approximately delineated between 1983 and 2003. During this time-slice, more emphasis was addressed to environmental research with topics such as the study of global events and long-term climate change. Ostracodologists profited also from the research "politics" within national and international programmes. Large international research teams emerged using new research methods. During the third period (2003-2013), communication and collaborative research reached a global dimension. Amongst the topics of research we cite the reconstruction of palaeoclimate using transfer functions, the building of large datasets of ostracod distributions for regional and intercontinental studies, and the implementation of actions that should lead to taxonomic harmonisation. Projects within which molecular biological techniques are routinely used, combined with sophisticated morphological information, expanded now in their importance. The documentation of the ostracod description improved through new techniques to visualise morphological details, which stimulated also communication between ostracodologists. Efforts of making available ostracod information through newsletters and electronic media are evoked.

Soil fungal communities of grasslands are environmentally structured at a regional scale in the Alps.

Studying patterns of species distributions along elevation gradients is frequently used to identify the primary factors that determine the distribution, diversity and assembly of species. However, despite their crucial role in ecosystem functioning, our understanding of the distribution of below-ground fungi is still limited, calling for more comprehensive studies of fungal biogeography along environmental gradients at various scales (from regional to global). Here, we investigated the richness of taxa of soil fungi and their phylogenetic diversity across a wide range of grassland types along a 2800 m elevation gradient at a large number of sites (213), stratified across a region of the Western Swiss Alps (700 km(2)). We used 454 pyrosequencing to obtain fungal sequences that were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). The OTU diversity-area relationship revealed uneven distribution of fungal taxa across the study area (i.e. not all taxa are everywhere) and fine-scale spatial clustering. Fungal richness and phylogenetic diversity were found to be higher in lower temperatures and higher moisture conditions. Climatic and soil characteristics as well as plant community composition were related to OTU alpha, beta and phylogenetic diversity, with distinct fungal lineages suggesting distinct ecological tolerances. Soil fungi, thus, show lineage-specific biogeographic patterns, even at a regional scale, and follow environmental determinism, mediated by interactions with plants.

A CMR study of the effects of tissue edema and necrosis on left ventricular dyssynchrony in acute myocardial infarction: implications for cardiac resynchronization therapy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In acute myocardial infarction (AMI), both tissue necrosis and edema are present and both might be implicated in the development of intraventricular dyssynchrony. However, their relative contribution to transient dyssynchrony is not known. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) can detect necrosis and edema with high spatial resolution and it can quantify dyssynchrony by tagging techniques. METHODS: Patients with a first AMI underwent percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) of the infarct-related artery within 24 h of onset of chest pain. Within 5-7 days after the event and at 4 months, CMR was performed. The CMR protocol included the evaluation of intraventricular dyssynchrony by applying a novel 3D-tagging sequence to the left ventricle (LV) yielding the CURE index (circumferential uniformity ratio estimate; 1 = complete synchrony). On T2-weighted images, edema was measured as high-signal (>2 SD above remote tissue) along the LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images (% of circumference corresponding to the area-at-risk). In analogy, on late-gadolinium enhancement (LGE) images, necrosis was quantified manually as percentage of LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images. Necrosis was also quantified on LGE images covering the entire LV (expressed as %LV mass). Finally, salvaged myocardium was calculated as the area-at-risk minus necrosis (expressed as % of LV circumference). RESULTS: After successful PCI (n = 22, 2 female, mean age: 57 ± 12y), peak troponin T was 20 ± 36ug/l and the LV ejection fraction on CMR was 41 ± 8%. Necrosis mass was 30 ± 10% and CURE was 0.91 ± 0.05. Edema was measured as 58 ± 14% of the LV circumference. In the acute phase, the extent of edema correlated with dyssynchrony (r2 = -0.63, p < 0.01), while extent of necrosis showed borderline correlation (r2 = -0.19, p = 0.05). PCI resulted in salvaged myocardium of 27 ± 14%. LV dyssynchrony (=CURE) decreased at 4 months from 0.91 ± 0.05 to 0.94 ± 0.03 (p < 0.004, paired t-test). At 4 months, edema was absent and scar %LV slightly shrunk to 23.7 ± 10.0% (p < 0.002 vs baseline). Regression of LV dyssynchrony during the 4 months follow-up period was predicted by both, the extent of edema and its necrosis component in the acute phase. CONCLUSIONS: In the acute phase of infarction, LV dyssynchrony is closely related to the extent of edema, while necrosis is a poor predictor of acute LV dyssynchrony. Conversely, regression of intraventricular LV dyssynchrony during infarct healing is predicted by the extent of necrosis in the acute phase.

Candidate gene study of TRAIL and TRAIL receptors: association with response to interferon beta therapy in multiple sclerosis patients.

TRAIL and TRAIL Receptor genes have been implicated in Multiple Sclerosis pathology as well as in the response to IFN beta therapy. The objective of our study was to evaluate the association of these genes in relation to the age at disease onset (AAO) and to the clinical response upon IFN beta treatment in Spanish MS patients. We carried out a candidate gene study of TRAIL, TRAILR-1, TRAILR-2, TRAILR-3 and TRAILR-4 genes. A total of 54 SNPs were analysed in 509 MS patients under IFN beta treatment, and an additional cohort of 226 MS patients was used to validate the results. Associations of rs1047275 in TRAILR-2 and rs7011559 in TRAILR-4 genes with AAO under an additive model did not withstand Bonferroni correction. In contrast, patients with the TRAILR-1 rs20576-CC genotype showed a better clinical response to IFN beta therapy compared with patients carrying the A-allele (recessive model: p = 8.88×10(-4), pc = 0.048, OR = 0.30). This SNP resulted in a non synonymous substitution of Glutamic acid to Alanine in position 228 (E228A), a change previously associated with susceptibility to different cancer types and risk of metastases, suggesting a lack of functionality of TRAILR-1. In order to unravel how this amino acid change in TRAILR-1 would affect to death signal, we performed a molecular modelling with both alleles. Neither TRAIL binding sites in the receptor nor the expression levels of TRAILR-1 in peripheral blood mononuclear cell subsets (monocytes, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells) were modified, suggesting that this SNP may be altering the death signal by some other mechanism. These findings show a role for TRAILR-1 gene variations in the clinical outcome of IFN beta therapy that might have relevance as a biomarker to predict the response to IFN beta in MS.

Increased risks of early sexual initiators: time makes a difference.

BACKGROUND: Years since onset of sexual intercourse (YSSI) is a rarely used variable when studying adolescents- sexual outcomes. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of YSSI on the adverse sexual outcomes of early sexual initiators.METHODS: Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health database, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey including 7429 adolescents in post mandatory school aged 16-20 years. Only adolescents reporting sexual intercourse (SI) were included (N=4388; 45% females) and divided by age of onset of SI (early initiators, age<16: N=1469, 44% females; and late initiators, age?16: N=2919, 46% females). Analyses were done separately by gender. Groups were compared for personal characteristics at the bivariate level. We analyzed three sexual outcomes (?4 sexual partners, pregnancy and non-use of condom at last SI) controlling for all significant personal variables with two logistic regressions first using age, then YSSI as one of the confounding variables. Results are given as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) using lSI as the reference category.RESULTS: After adjusting for YSSI instead of age, negative sexual outcomes among early initiators were no longer significant, except for multiple sexual partners among females, although at a much lower level. Early initiators were less likely to report non-use of condom at last SI when adjusting for YSSI (females: aOR=0.59 [0.44-0.79]; p<0.001; males aOR=0.71 [0.50-1.00]; p=0.053).CONCLUSION: YSSI is an important explanatory variable when studying adolescents- sexuality and needs to be included in future research on adolescents- sexual health.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Results from a multicentre international registry of familial Mediterranean fever: impact of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease in children.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) is an autoinflammatory disease caused by mutations of the MEFV gene. We analyse the impact of ethnic, environmental and genetic factors on the severity of disease presentation in a large international registry. METHODS: Demographic, genetic and clinical data from validated paediatric FMF patients enrolled in the Eurofever registry were analysed. Three subgroups were considered: (i) patients living in the eastern Mediterranean countries; (ii) patients with an eastern Mediterranean ancestry living in western Europe; (iii) Caucasian patients living in western European countries. A score for disease severity at presentation was elaborated. RESULTS: Since November 2009, 346 FMF paediatric patients were enrolled in the Eurofever registry. The genetic and demographic features (ethnicity, age of onset, age at diagnosis) were similar among eastern Mediterranean patients whether they lived in their countries or western European countries. European patients had a lower frequency of the high penetrance M694V mutation and a significant delay of diagnosis (p<0.002). Patients living in eastern Mediterranean countries had a higher frequency of fever episodes/year and more frequent arthritis, pericarditis, chest pain, abdominal pain and vomiting compared to the other two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that the variables independently associated with severity of disease presentation were country of residence, presence of M694V mutation and positive family history. CONCLUSIONS: Eastern Mediterranean FMF patients have a milder disease phenotype once they migrate to Europe, reflecting the effect of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease.