Tendency towards homogenization in fish assemblages in the cascade reservoir system of the Tiete river basin, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aporte del sistema educativo a la reducción de las brechas digitales, una mirada desde las mediciones PISA

Incluye bibliografía

Práticas avaliativas em Matemática de professores do ensino fundamental: Aproximações e distanciamentos em relação às recomendações da Educação Matemática

Pós-graduação em Educação - FCT

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

História do ensino primário rural em São Paulo e Santa Catarina (1921-1952): uma abordagem comparada

Pós-graduação em Educação Escolar - FCLAR

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Orçamento Participativo (OP) após vinte anos de experiências no Brasil: mais qualidade na gestão orçamentária municipal?

This article consists on an analysis of dissertations and thesis on Participatory Budget (PB) in post-graduation courses in Brazil (from the CAPES data bank), from 2000 to 2009. It also makes the evolution of works explicit, the institutions where they were carried out, and the area in which they were produced. Results show that the Participatory Budget has not been often evaluated, understood and explained in terms of its finance and budget technical dimension, in spite of there are two decades studies have been carried out regarding this method on budget management in Brazil. Finally, the importance of understanding aspects on PB must be taken into consideration when carrying out new studies.

Do pets reduce the likelihood of sudden unexplained death in epilepsy?

Purpose: To assess the relationship between the presence of pets in homes of epilepsy patients and the occurrence of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Methods: Parents or relatives of SUDEP patients collected over a ten-year period (2000-2009) in a large epilepsy unit were asked if the patient lived together with any domestic pet at the time of death or not. Patients who did not experience SUDEP served as controls. Results and conclusions: Eleven out of the 1092 included patients (1%) experienced SUDEP, all with refractory symptomatic epilepsy, but none of them had pets in their homes at the time of death. In contrast, the frequency of pet-ownership in the control group (n = 1081) was 61%. According to previous studies there are some indications that human health is directly related to companionship with animals in a way that domestic animals prevent illness and facilitate recovery of patients. Companion animals can buffer reactivity against acute stress, diminish stress perception and improve physical health. These factors may reduce cardiac arrhythmias and seizure frequency, factors related to SUDEP. Companion animals may have a positive effect on well-being, thus irnproving epilepsy outcome. (c) 2012 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of R&D in firm value across Europe

In this thesis the impact of R&D expenditures on firm market value and stock returns is examined. This is performed in a sample of European listed firms for the period 2000-2009. I apply different linear and GMM econometric estimations for testing the impact of R&D on market prices and construct country portfolios based on firms’ R&D expenditure to market capitalization ratio for studying the effect of R&D on stock returns. The results confirm that more innovative firms have a better market valuation,investors consider R&D as an asset that produces long-term benefits for corporations. The impact of R&D on firm value differs across countries. It is significantly modulated by the financial and legal environment where firms operate. Other firm and industry characteristics seem to play a determinant role when investors value R&D. First, only larger firms with lower financial leverage that operate in highly innovative sectors decide to disclose their R&D investment. Second, the markets assign a premium to small firms, which operate in hi-tech sectors compared to larger enterprises for low-tech industries. On the other hand, I provide empirical evidence indicating that generally highly R&D-intensive firms may enhance mispricing problems related to firm valuation. As R&D contributes to the estimation of future stock returns, portfolios that comprise high R&D-intensive stocks may earn significant excess returns compared to the less innovative after controlling for size and book-to-market risk. Further, the most innovative firms are generally more risky in terms of stock volatility but not systematically more risky than low-tech firms. Firms that operate in Continental Europe suffer more mispricing compared to Anglo-Saxon peers but the former are less volatile, other things being equal. The sectors where firms operate are determinant even for the impact of R&D on stock returns; this effect is much stronger in hi-tech industries.

Real-World Performance of Longitudinal Barriers Struck by Large Trucks

Outside of relatively limited crash testing with large trucks, very little is known regarding the performance of traffic barriers subjected to real-world large truck impacts. The purpose of this study was to investigate real-world large truck impacts into traffic barriers to determine barrier crash involvement rates, the impact performance of barriers not specifically designed to redirect large trucks, and the real-world performance of large-truck-specific barriers. Data sources included the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (2000-2009), the General Estimates System (2000-2009) and 155 in-depth large truck-to-barrier crashes from the Large Truck Crash Causation Study. Large truck impacts with a longitudinal barrier were found to comprise 3 percent of all police-reported longitudinal barrier impacts and roughly the same proportion of barrier fatalities. Based on a logistic regression model predicting barrier penetration, large truck barrier penetration risk was found to increase by a factor of 6 for impacts with barriers designed primarily for passenger vehicles. Although large-truck-specific barriers were found to perform better than non-heavy vehicle specific barriers, the penetration rate of these barriers were found to be 17 percent. This penetration rate is especially a concern because the higher test level barriers are designed to protect other road users, not the occupants of the large truck. Surprisingly, barriers not specifically designed for large truck impacts were found to prevent large truck penetration approximately half of the time. This suggests that adding costlier higher test level barriers may not always be warranted, especially on roadways with lower truck volumes.

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries

OBJECTIVE To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries. METHODS Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. RESULTS In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/μL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/μL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/μL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/μL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage. CONCLUSIONS Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Die Sprüche Salomos

Salomo. Bearb vom Hrsg. B. Wolf

Shifting the focus: Addressing breast cancer disparities at the health care organization level

The purpose of this study was to understand the scope of breast cancer disparities within the Texas Medical Center. The goal was to increase the awareness of breast cancer disparities at the health care organization level, and to foster the development of organizational interventions to reduce breast cancer disparities. The study seeks to answer the following questions: 1. Are hospitals in the Texas Medical Center implementing interventions to reduce breast cancer disparities? 2. What are their interventions for reducing the effects of non clinical factors on breast cancer treatment disparities? 3. What are their measures for monitoring, continuously improving, and evaluating the success of their interventions? ^ This research project was designed as a mixed methods case study. Quantitative breast cancer data for the years 2000-2009 was obtained from the Texas Cancer Registry (TCR). Qualitative data collection and analysis was done by conducting a total of 20 semi-structured interviews of administrators, physicians and nurses at five hospitals (A, B, C, D and E) in the Texas Medical Center (TMC). For quantitative analysis, the study was limited to early stage breast cancer patients: local and regional. The dependent variable was receipt of standard treatment: Surgery (Yes/No), BCS vs Mastectomy, Chemotherapy (Yes/No) and Radiation after BCS (Yes/No). The main independent variable was race: non-Hispanic White (NHW) , non-Hispanic Black (NHB), and Hispanic. Other covariates included age at diagnosis, diagnosis date, percent poverty, grade, stage, and regional nodes. Multivariate logistic regression was used to test the adjusted association between receipt of standard care and race. Qualitative data was analyzed with the Atlas.ti7 software (ATLAS.ti GmbH, Berlin). ^ Though there were significant differences by race for all dependent variables when the data was analyzed as a single group of all hospitals; at the level of the individual hospitals the results were not consistent by race/ethnicity across all dependent variables for hospitals A, B, and E. There were no racial differences in adjusted analysis for receipt of chemotherapy for the individual hospitals of interest in this study. For hospitals C and D, no racial disparities in treatment was observed in adjusted multivariable analysis. All organizations in this study were aware of the body of research which shows that there are disparities in breast cancer outcomes for patient population groups. However, qualitative data analysis found that there were differences in interest among hospitals in addressing breast cancer disparities in their patient population groups. Some organizations were actively implementing directed measures to reduce the breast cancer disparity gap in outcomes for patients, and others were not. Despite the differences in levels of interest, quantitative data analysis showed that organizations in the Texas Medical Center were making progress in reducing the burden of breast cancer disparities in the patient populations being served.^

Paleoclimate reconstructions from sediment core MD01-2378

On the basis of the radiocarbon (14C) plateau-tuning method a new age model for Timor Sea Core MD01-2378 was established. It revealed a precise centennial-scale phasing of climate events in the ocean, cryo-, and atmosphere during the last deglacial and provides important new insights into causal linkages controlling events of global climate change. At Site MD01-2378 reservoir ages of surface waters dropped from 1600 yr prior to 20 cal ka to 250-500 yr after 18.8 cal ka. This evidence was crucial for generating a high-resolution age model for deglacial events in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Sea-surface temperatures (SST) started to change near 18.8 cal ka, that is ~500 yr after the start of, presumably northern hemispheric, deglacial melt and sea level rise as shown by the benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratio (d18O). However, the SST rise occurred 500-1000 yr prior to the onset of deglacial Antarctic warming and the first major rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide at about 18 ka. The increase in SST may partly reflect reduced seasonal upwelling of cold subsurface waters along the eastern margin of the Indian Ocean, which is reflected by a doubling of the thermal gradient between the sea surface and the thermocline, a halving of chlorin productivity from 19 to 18.5 cal ka, and in particular, by the strong decrease in surface water reservoir ages. Two significant increases in deglacial Timor Sea surface salinities from 19-18.5 and 15.5-14.5 cal ka, may partly reflect the deglacial increase in the distance of local river mouths, partly an inter-hemispheric millennial-scale see-saw in tropical monsoon intensity, possibly linked to a deglacial increase in the dominance of Pacific El Niño regimes over Heinrich stadial 1.

Un estudio etnopragmático de la variación morfosintáctica en el empleo de los tiempos de futuro en el discurso político

El siguiente trabajo presenta los inicios de una tesis de maestría de la Universidad de Buenos Aires en Análisis del Discurso bajo el título El futuro de los políticos. Un estudio de la variación morfosintáctica en el empleo de los tiempos de futuro en el discurso político. El marco teórico describe qué se entiende por lenguaje y por discurso desde la concepción de la Escuela de Columbia (Diver, W. 1995; Contini-Morava 1995) que sostiene que la sintaxis no es autónoma. Se basa también en la definición de discurso político de corte institucional-funcionalista de Mangone & Warley (1994). El corpus abarca 160 casos/ejemplos de expresiones futuras tomadas de discursos reales. El propósito es develar el significado del tiempo verbal futuro elegido por los políticos argentinos en sus discursos, concentrándonos en el futuro imperfecto (lograré) y el futuro perifrástico (voy a lograr), que están en la variación del español de Argentina. Nuestro interés es hacer un estudio etnopragmático (García, E. 1990, 1995; Martínez, A. 1995, 1999, 2000, 2009; Mauder 2000) que combine los análisis cuantitativo y cualitativo del uso de cada una de estas formas partiendo del foco problemático ¿Por qué los políticos argentinos emplean el futuro imperfecto en sus discursos cuando en el discurso cotidiano se impone el uso del futuro perifrástico para expresar lo que se tiene intención de concretar? Observamos en las primeras conclusiones parciales que si bien las formas de futuro estudiadas conservan el mismo significado respecto del uso general del español, se manifiesta una extensión paradigmática del empleo del futuro morfológico ligado a la posibilidad de control sobre la acción proclamada y al mensaje apodíctico