Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level.

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.

Explanatory Note on the General Scheme of the Further Education and Training Authority (SOLAS) Bill 2012

1. Interpretation. The purpose of this provision is set out some commonly used terms to be used in the Bill. 2. Establishment day. The purpose of this provision is to require the Minister to specify a day as the establishment day for the purposes of the Bill. This will be the day on which the new authority, to be known as SOLAS, will come into existence. 3. Establishment of SOLAS. The purpose of this head is to provide for the formal establishment of SOLAS and to define its status as a corporate body with the usual consequent powers. 4. Functions of SOLAS. The purpose of this head is to set down the statutory functions of the new further education and training authority. SOLAS is to have overall strategic responsibility for the provision of further education and training in the country. It will be responsible for deciding what further education and training programmes are provided. A core part of its role will be to ensure the referral of jobseekers to appropriate courses which may be delivered by VECs or by other, including private, providers. It will provide the funding stream to VECS and those other bodies for the provision of this training.

OECD Review of Early Childhood Education and Care Policy in Ireland - Information Note

Thematic reviews of early childhood policy originated in response to a significant change in Western societies in the latter part of the 20th century. In effect, the care and education of young children in the industrialised world had shifted from the private to the public sphere, to become a shared responsibility of families and the state. Not only was the provision of equal access to women to the labour market an important goal in this development, but also the issue of giving every child a fair start in life and at school.

Personal and Public Involvement Briefing Note

INVOLVE - Briefing note for researchers

Research Governance Guidance Note 1

HSC Trust Research Governance Permission - Pre-application guidance for applicants

Research Governance Guidance Note 2

HSC Trust Research Governance Permission - Submission of Application

Cope with Confidence - survey of heart failure patient experience

Your views matter - if you have heart failure, or are close to someone who does, please complete our survey by 31st�March 2012 (link below).Heart failure is a common condition affecting at least 20,000 people in Northern Ireland. The aim of this survey is to find out how to increase the confidence of people living with heart failure so they have a better quality of life, and can work in partnership with health care professionals and support services in managing their condition. The findings of this survey will be used to help improve services.Your views are important and we would encourage you to complete the survey. It should only take around 20 minutes. Participation is confidential which means that your identity will not be revealed. You are asked for your age, the first part of you post code and which GP practice you are registered with. This is so the results for different age groups and for different large geographical areas (i.e. Health & Social Care Trust areas) can be compared.� Results will not be examined by individual GP practice.Participation is voluntary i.e. taking part in the study is your decision. Whether you participate or not will have no effect on the medical care you receive from your GP practice or elsewhere. None of the health care professionals involved in your care will know if you participate or not: neither will they see your individual response.Whether you are an adult or a young person living with heart failure, or a partner, care giver, son, daughter, relative or friend, we would like you to share your experiences. This will help us to develop existing services in Northern Ireland to better meet your needs.You can share your experience by completing the survey online, clicking this�link:�http://sg.sensemaker-suite.com/CopewithconfidenceThe survey should be completed by 31st�March 2012.�If you have any queries about the survey, or you would like to request a paper copy to complete, please contact the Public Health Agency (028) 9032 1313 and ask for extension 2487 or email us at copewithconfidence@hscni.netPlease note that the survey team can only assist in survey related questions and will not able to answer questions about heart failure, its treatment or services provided.The Northern Ireland Chest Heart & Stroke Association and The British Heart Foundation can provide information about support available to people with heart failure. Their contact details are:.�Northern Ireland Chest Heart and Stroke Association:� www.nichsa.com, telephone (028) 9032 0184.�British Heart Foundation:� www.bhf.org.uk, telephone 0300 330 3311

Taking speed can really bring you down

This poster informs about the effects of taking speed stating: 'The more speed you take, the more exhausted you are when it wears off and the more likely you are to keep taking more. And that's called addiction'. It also provides contact details for the National Drugs Helpline. Tel: 0800 776600.

Molecular evidence that human immunodeficiency virus type 1 dissemination in a small Brazilian city was already taking place in the early 1990s

We recently performed a molecular epidemiology survey of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in Miracema, a small city in Southeast Brazil, and found multiple monophyletic clusters, consistent with independent introductions and spread of different viral lineages in the city. Here we apply Bayesian coalescent-based methods to the two largest subtype B clusters and estimate that the most recent common ancestors that gave rise to these two transmission chains were in circulation around 1991-1992. The finding that HIV-1 spread in this Brazilian small city was already taking place at a time Aids was considered a problem restricted to large urban centers may have important public health implications.

Technical note: Implementation of a geodatabase of published and unpublished data on the catastrophic Vaiont landslide

On 9 October 1963 a catastrophic landslide suddenly occurred on the southern slope of the Vaiont dam reservoir. A mass of approximately 270 million m3 collapsed into the reservoir generating a wave that overtopped the dam and hit the town of Longarone and other villages nearby. Several investigations and interpretations of the slope collapse have been carried out during the last 45 years, however, a comprehensive explanation of both the triggering and the dynamics of the phenomenon has yet to be provided. In order to re-evaluate the currently existing information on the slide, an electronic bibliographic database and an ESRI-geodatabase have been developed. The chronology of the collected documentation showed that most of the studies for re-evaluating the failure mechanisms were conducted in the last decade, as a consequence of knowledge, methods and techniques recently acquired. The current contents of the geodatabase will improve definition of the structural setting that influenced the slide and led to the the propagation of the displaced rock mass. The objectives, structure and contents of the e-bibliography and Geodatabase are indicated, together with a brief description on the possible use of the alphanumeric and spatial contents of the databases.

Une approche strategique du vote : à propos de « vote par appobation, vote par note »

Ce texte a pour ambition de revenir sur une procédure d'expérimentation destinée à tester l'impact du vote par approbation ainsi que du vote par note sur l'ampleur de ce qu'on a coutume d'appeler le vote utile. Les résultats de ces expériences, menées lors des élections présidentielles françaises de 2007 et de 2012, ont fait l'objet de deux articles publiés dans la Revue économique. Notre objectif est ici d'attirer l'attention du lecteur sur la conception implicite qui sous-tend ces expériences : le vote comme outil de dévoilement des préférences individuelles. Une telle orientation se fait au détriment d'une conception stratégique du vote, c'est-à-dire le vote comme processus de coordination. Or, il nous semble que le propre du vote utile est précisément de s'inscrire dans une dimension stratégique du vote, dimension que la procédure expérimentale mise en place tend à gommer en ne fournissant pas aux votants de repères informationnels relatifs aux choix des autres votants. On parlera à cet effet d'isolation informationnelle. This text has the ambition to return to an experimental procedure designed to test the impact of approval voting as well as evaluating voting on the scope of what is called in French vote utile (strategic voting). The results of these experiences, held during the 2007 and 2012 French presidential elections, have been the object of two papers published in the Revue économique. Our aim is to catch the attention of readers on the implicit conception inherent to these experiences: voting as a means to reveal individual preferences. Such a direction is taken at the cost of a strategic conception of voting, i.e. voting as a coordination process. Yet, it seems to us that the main characteristic of strategic voting is precisely to be strategic. The design of the experimental procedure tends to erase this dimension, by depriving the voters of information on other voter's choices. This is what we call informational isolation.

Behaviour evaluation for risk-taking adolescents (BERTA): an easy to use and assess instrument to detect adolescent risky behaviours in a clinical setting.

To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.