Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

Hormonal factors and insulin-like growth factor-1 in North American postmenopausal women

Background: Mechanisms underlying the effect of estrogen exposure on breast cancer risk remain unclear. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels have been positively associated with breast cancer and are a potential mechanism. Objectives: The objectives of this thesis are: 1) to explore whether the reproductive risk factors and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles (LCMC), as measures for long-term estrogen exposure, are associated with IGF-1 levels, and 2) to examine the effect of an aromatase inhibitor (AI) on IGF-1 levels, and the potential interaction with BMI. Methods: A cross sectional study and a randomized controlled trial nested with the MAP.3 chemoprevention trial were used to address objective 1 and 2, respectively. 567 postmenopausal women were selected. Anthropometric measurements, lifestyle factors, reproductive characteristics and serum IGF-1 concentrations were collected at baseline and one year. Objective 1. The LCMC was computed as a composite measure of the reproductive characteristics. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the association between IGF-1 levels and LCMC and the hormonal risk factors, while adjusting for potential covariates. Objective 2. Changes in IGF-1 were compared between the exemestane and placebo, and effect modification by BMI was tested with an interaction term. Results: Objective 1. Women aged 55 years or older at menopause had 16.26 ng/mL (95% CI: 1.76, 30.75) higher IGF-1 compared to women aged less than 50 years at menopause. Women in the highest category of menstrual cycles (≥500 cycles) had an average 19.00 ng/mL (95%CI: 5.86, 32.14) higher concentration of IGF-1 compared to women in the lowest category (<350). Exogenous hormones had no effect on postmenopausal IGF-1 levels. Objective 2. Exemestane significantly increased IGF-1 levels by 18% (95% CI: 14%-22%); while, placebo had no effect on IGF-1. The changes in IGF-1 were significantly different between the treatment arms (P<0.0001) and no significant interaction was observed between treatment and BMI on IGF-1 changes (P=0.1327). Conclusion: Objective 1. Larger number of menstrual cycles and a later age at menopause are positively associated with IGF-1. IGF-1 may be one mechanism by which prolonged estrogen exposure increases cancer risk. Objective 2. We conclude that the reduced cancer risk observed with AI therapy likely occurs in an IGF-1 independent mechanism. Further studies exploring the clinical consequences of increased IGF-1 on AI therapy are needed.

Burned Area Mapping in the North American Boreal Forest Using Terra-MODIS LTDR (2001–2011): A Comparison with the MCD45A1, MCD64A1 and BA GEOLAND-2 Products

An algorithm based on a Bayesian network classifier was adapted to produce 10-day burned area (BA) maps from the Long Term Data Record Version 3 (LTDR) at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (~5 km) for the North American boreal region from 2001 to 2011. The modified algorithm used the Brightness Temperature channel from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) band 31 T31 (11.03 μm) instead of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) band T3 (3.75 μm). The accuracy of the BA-LTDR, the Collection 5.1 MODIS Burned Area (MCD45A1), the MODIS Collection 5.1 Direct Broadcast Monthly Burned Area (MCD64A1) and the Burned Area GEOLAND-2 (BA GEOLAND-2) products was assessed using reference data from the Alaska Fire Service (AFS) and the Canadian Forest Service National Fire Database (CFSNFD). The linear regression analysis of the burned area percentages of the MCD64A1 product using 40 km × 40 km grids versus the reference data for the years from 2001 to 2011 showed an agreement of R2 = 0.84 and a slope = 0.76, while the BA-LTDR showed an agreement of R2 = 0.75 and a slope = 0.69. These results represent an improvement over the MCD45A1 product, which showed an agreement of R2 = 0.67 and a slope = 0.42. The MCD64A1, BA-LTDR and MCD45A1 products underestimated the total burned area in the study region, whereas the BA GEOLAND-2 product overestimated it by approximately five-fold, with an agreement of R2 = 0.05. Despite MCD64A1 showing the best overall results, the BA-LTDR product proved to be an alternative for mapping burned areas in the North American boreal forest region compared with the other global BA products, even those with higher spatial/spectral resolution

Revision of the North American and West Indian species of Cuscuta ...

Vita.

GENETIC VARIATION, LOCAL ADAPTATION AND POPULATION STRUCTURE IN NORTH AMERICAN RED OAK SPECIES, QUERCUS RUBRA L. AND Q. ELLIPSOIDALIS E. J. HILL

Forest trees, like oaks, rely on high levels of genetic variation to adapt to varying environmental conditions. Thus, genetic variation and its distribution are important for the long-term survival and adaptability of oak populations. Climate change is projected to lead to increased drought and fire events as well as a northward migration of tree species, including oaks. Additionally, decline in oak regeneration has become increasingly concerning since it may lead to decreased gene flow and increased inbreeding levels. This will in turn lead to lowered levels of genetic diversity, negatively affecting the growth and survival of populations. At the same time, populations at the species’ distribution edge, like those in this study, could possess important stores of genetic diversity and adaptive potential, while also being vulnerable to climatic or anthropogenic changes. A survey of the level and distribution of genetic variation and identification of potentially adaptive genes is needed since adaptive genetic variation is essential for their long-term survival. Oaks possess a remarkable characteristic in that they maintain their species identity and specific environmental adaptations despite their propensity to hybridize. Thus, in the face of interspecific gene flow, some areas of the genome remain differentiated due to selection. This characteristic allows the study of local environmental adaptation through genetic variation analyses. Furthermore, using genic markers with known putative functions makes it possible to link those differentiated markers to potential adaptive traits (e.g., flowering time, drought stress tolerance). Demographic processes like gene flow and genetic drift also play an important role in how genes (including adaptive genes) are maintained or spread. These processes are influenced by disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic. An examination of how genetic variation is geographically distributed can display how these genetic processes and geographical disturbances influence genetic variation patterns. For example, the spatial clustering of closely related trees could promote inbreeding with associated negative effects (inbreeding depression), if gene flow is limited. In turn this can have negative consequences for a species’ ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, interspecific hybridization may also allow the transfer of genes between species that increase their adaptive potential in a changing environment. I have studied the ecologically divergent, interfertile red oaks, Quercus rubra and Q. ellipsoidalis, to identify genes with potential roles in adaptation to abiotic stress through traits such as drought tolerance and flowering time, and to assess the level and distribution of genetic variation. I found evidence for moderate gene flow between the two species and low interspecific genetic differences at most genetic markers (Lind and Gailing 2013). However, the screening of genic markers with potential roles in phenology and drought tolerance led to the identification of a CONSTANS-like (COL) gene, a candidate gene for flowering time and growth. This marker, located in the coding region of the gene, was highly differentiated between the two species in multiple geographical areas, despite interspecific gene flow, and may play a role in reproductive isolation and adaptive divergence between the two species (Lind-Riehl et al. 2014). Since climate change could result in a northward migration of trees species like oaks, this gene could be important in maintaining species identity despite increased contact zones between species (e.g., increased gene flow). Finally I examined differences in spatial genetic structure (SGS) and genetic variation between species and populations subjected to different management strategies and natural disturbances. Diverse management activities combined with various natural disturbances as well as species specific life history traits influenced SGS patterns and inbreeding levels (Lind-Riehl and Gailing submitted).

Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market

Biology of three species of North American Triatominae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) fed on rabbits

Aspects related to hatching, lifetime, number of blood meals for molting, mortality, feeding time, and postfeeding defecation delay were evaluated and compared in each instar of three North American Triatominae: Triatoma gerstaeckeri, Triatoma lecticularia and Triatoma protracta, all of them fed on rabbits. No significant differences (p > 0.05) were found among the three species regarding mean hatching rate, which was close to 20 days. Egg-to-adult development times were significantly shorter (p < 0.05) for T. lecticularia. Number of blood meals for molting to next instar ranged from one to five for T. protracta, and from one to six for T. gerstaeckeri and T. lecticularia. Mortality rates were higher in younger nymphs of T. lecticularia and T. protracta, while rates in T. gerstaeckeri were higher in fifth-instar nymphs. Mean feeding time was longest in T. gerstaeckeri, followed by T. lecticularia. More than twice the number of T. gerstaeckeri nymphs completed the development process, if compared to the nymphs from the other two species. Defecation delay was less than 10 min for T. lecticularia, T. protracta and the youngest nymphs of T. gerstaeckeri. Results point out that these three species may be important potential vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi for human populations, in areas of Mexico where these species are currently present.

Risco de quedas em idosos: revisão integrativa pelo diagnóstico da North American Nursing Diagnosis Association

Foi objetivo desta pesquisa analisar a produção científica de fatores de risco para quedas, a partir do diagnóstico da North American Nursing Diagnosis Association, na literatura científica brasileira e estrangeira, de 2005 a 2010. Revisão integrativa, na qual foram utilizados os descritores: acidente por quedas e idoso, nas bases de dados da Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature e Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde, sendo selecionados 32 artigos para análise de conteúdo. Os resultados são apresentados conforme os fatores de riscos indicados na North American Nursing Diagnosis Association, sendo eles: fatores de riscos ambientais, como recinto com móveis e objetos/tapetes espalhados pelo chão, pouca iluminação, piso escorregadio; fatores de riscos cognitivos, tais como estado mental rebaixado; fatores de riscos em adultos, como idade acima de 65 anos; fatores de riscos fisiológicos, como equilíbrio prejudicado, dificuldades visuais, incontinência, dificuldade na marcha, neoplasia; fatores de riscos para uso de alguns medicamentos. A análise dos fatores de risco de quedas nos idosos evidência a necessidade de desenvolvimento de novas estratégias modificadoras dos ambientes e componentes intrínsecos.

Glover's rule in North American barn owls

Studying the geographic variation of phenotypic traits can provide key information about the potential adaptive function of alternative phenotypes. Gloger's rule posits that animals should be dark-vs. light-colored in warm and humid vs. cold and dry habitats, respectively. The rule is based on the assumption that melanin pigments and/or dark coloration confer selective advantages in warm and humid regions. This rule may not apply, however, if genes for color are acting on other traits conferring fitness benefits in specific climes. Covariation between coloration and climate will therefore depend on the relative importance of coloration or melanin pigments and the genetically correlated physiological and behavioral processes that enable an animal to deal with climatic factors. The Barn Owl (Tyto alba) displays three melanin-based plumage traits, and we tested whether geographic variation in these traits at the scale of the North American continent supported Gloger's rule. An analysis of variation of pheomelanin-based reddish coloration and of the number and size of black feather spots in 1,369 museum skin specimens showed that geographic variation was correlated with ambient temperature and precipitation. Owls were darker red in color and displayed larger but fewer black feather spots in colder regions. Owls also exhibited more and larger black spots in regions where the climate was dry in winter. We propose that the associations between pigmentation and ambient temperature are of opposite sign for reddish coloration and spot size vs. the number of spots because selection exerted by climate (or a correlated variable) is plumage trait-specific or because plumage traits are genetically correlated with different adaptations.

Molecular Genetics of FAM161A in North American Patients with Early-Onset Retinitis Pigmentosa.

Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) is a hereditary disease that leads to the progressive degeneration of retinal photoreceptor cells and to blindness. It is caused by mutations in several distinct genes, including the ciliary gene FAM161A, which is associated with a recessive form of this disorder. Recent investigations have revealed that defects in FAM161A represent a rather prevalent cause of hereditary blindness in Israel and the Palestinian territories, whereas they seem to be rarely present within patients from Germany. Genetic or clinical data are currently not available for other countries. In this work, we screened a cohort of patients with recessive RP from North America to determine the frequency of FAM161A mutations in this ethnically-mixed population and to assess the phenotype of positive cases. Out of 273 unrelated patients, only 3 subjects had defects in FAM161A. A fourth positive patient, the sister of one of these index cases, was also identified following pedigree analysis. They were all homozygous for the p.T452Sfx3 mutation, which was previously reported as a founder DNA variant in the Israeli and Palestinian populations. Analysis of cultured lymphoblasts from patients revealed that mutant FAM161A transcripts were actively degraded by nonsense-mediated mRNA decay. Electroretinographic testing showed 30 Hz cone flicker responses in the range of 0.10 to 0.60 microvolts in all cases at their first visit (age 12 to 23) (lower norm  =  50 μV) and of 0.06 to 0.32 microvolts at their most recent examination (age 27 to 43), revealing an early-onset of this progressive disease. Our data indicate that mutations in FAM161A are responsible for 1% of recessive RP cases in North America, similar to the prevalence detected in Germany and unlike the data from Israel and the Palestinian territories. We also show that, at the molecular level, the disease is likely caused by FAM161A protein deficiency.

Plastid DNA variation in Prunus serotina var. serotina (Rosaceae), a North American tree invading Europe

Black cherry (Prunus serotina) is a tree from North America, where it is often used for economical purposes, whereas it is widespread and invasive in Europe. Plastid DNA variation was Wrst investigated in both its native and invasive ranges using microsatellite loci and sequences of three intergenic spacers (trnT-trnL, trnD-trnT and trnS-trnG). This analysis was focused on P. serotina var. serotina, with the inclusion of samples of closely related taxa. Length variation at a microsatellite locus (ccmp5) and a few sequence polymorphisms were identi- Wed among P. serotina samples. Four new primer pairs were then designed to speciWcally amplify variable regions and a combination of Wve markers was Wnally proposed for phylogeographic studies in P. serotina. These loci allow identiWcation of six chlorotypes in P. serotina var. serotina, which may be particularly useful to depict the maternal origins of European invasive populations

The role of clade competition in the diversification of North American canids.

The history of biodiversity is characterized by a continual replacement of branches in the tree of life. The rise and demise of these branches (clades) are ultimately determined by changes in speciation and extinction rates, often interpreted as a response to varying abiotic and biotic factors. However, understanding the relative importance of these factors remains a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Here we analyze the rich North American fossil record of the dog family Canidae and of other carnivores to tease apart the roles of competition, body size evolution, and climate change on the sequential replacement of three canid subfamilies (two of which have gone extinct). We develop a novel Bayesian analytic framework to show that competition from multiple carnivore clades successively drove the demise and replacement of the two extinct canid subfamilies by increasing their extinction rates and suppressing their speciation. Competitive effects have likely come from ecologically similar species from both canid and felid clades. These results imply that competition among entire clades, generally considered a rare process, can play a more substantial role than climate change and body size evolution in determining the sequential rise and decline of clades.

Life-time growth patterns of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus introduced to Europe, relative to North American populations

The pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus, an omnivorous, nest guarding North American sunfish, was introduced into European waters about 100 years ago. To assess growth performance following introduction, we reviewed the available data for North American and European populations of pumpkinseed and compared the back-calculated age-specific growth for juveniles (standard length, SL, at age two) and adults (age two to five increment) as well as adult body size (SL at age five), von Bertalanffy growth model parameters and the index of growth (in length) performance (φ′). For continental comparisons of growth trajectory, mean growth curves for North American and Europe were calculated with the von Bertalanffy model using pooled data sets for each continent. Juvenile growth rate did not differ between European and North American pumpkinseed, but mean adult body size and adult growth rate were both significantly greater in North American than European populations. Adult body size decreased with increasing latitude (ANOVA) in North American populations, but this was not observed with adult growth rate. In contrast, adult body size tended to increase with latitude in European populations. Adult body size correlated significantly with φ′. The von Bertalanffy model described the overall growth patterns of North American and European populations reasonably well, but on the individual population level, length asymptotes were unrealistic (estimates that were > 20 % of the mean back-calculated size for the oldest age class) for a third of European populations and 80% of the North American populations. In contrast to North American pumpkinseed populations, somatic growth in European populations appears to be compromised by limited, but adequate, food resources, probably due to strong intraspecific interactions. This appears to be especially acute in adults, having potential ramifications for life span and reproductive allocation