Stochastic lattice model describing a vector-borne disease

We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).

Fiber-Optic Technologies for Wireline and Wireless In-building Networks

This doctoral dissertation aims to establish fiber-optic technologies overcoming the limiting issues of data communications in indoor environments. Specific applications are broadband mobile distribution in different in-building scenarios and high-speed digital transmission over short-range wired optical systems. Two key enabling technologies are considered: Radio over Fiber (RoF) techniques over standard silica fibers for distributed antenna systems (DAS) and plastic optical fibers (POFs) for short-range communications. Hence, the objectives and achievements of this thesis are related to the application of RoF and POF technologies in different in-building scenarios. On one hand, a theoretical and experimental analysis combined with demonstration activities has been performed on cost-effective RoF systems. An extensive modeling on modal noise impact both on linear and non-linear characteristics of RoF link over silica multimode fiber has been performed to achieve link design rules for an optimum choice of the transmitter, receiver and launching technique. A successful transmission of Long Term Evolution (LTE) mobile signals on the resulting optimized RoF system over silica multimode fiber employing a Fabry-Perot LD, central launch technique and a photodiode with a built-in ball lens was demonstrated up to 525m with performances well compliant with standard requirements. On the other hand, digital signal processing techniques to overcome the bandwidth limitation of POF have been investigated. An uncoded net bit-rate of 5.15Gbit/s was obtained on a 50m long POF link employing an eye-safe transmitter, a silicon photodiode, and DMT modulation with bit and power loading algorithm. With the insertion of 3x2N quadrature amplitude modulation constellation formats, an uncoded net-bit-rate of 5.4Gbit/s was obtained on a 50 m long POF link employing an eye-safe transmitter and a silicon avalanche photodiode. Moreover, simultaneous transmission of baseband 2Gbit/s with DMT and 200Mbit/s with an ultra-wideband radio signal has been validated over a 50m long POF link.

Der Austausch von Stickstoffmonoxid zwischen Boden und Atmosphäre unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Bodenwassergehaltes

Stickstoffmonoxid (NO) ist als reaktives Spurengas eine wichtige Komponente atmosphärenchemischer Prozesse und hat somit einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre. Eine Hauptquelle des Spurengases stellen bodenmikrobiologische Prozesse dar, deren regionaler und globaler Anteil weiterhin mit größeren Unsicherheiten geschätzt wird. Ursache für die schwere Abschätzbarkeit der NO-Freisetzung aus Böden ist die hohe räumliche Variabilität der steuernden Faktoren. Als einer der wichtigsten Faktoren, die die Freisetzung von NO aus Böden regeln, gilt der Bodenwassergehalt. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, den Zusammenhang zwischen NO-Freisetzung, Bodenwassergehalt, den Bodeneigenschaften und den Standortbedingungen zu untersuchen und diesen möglichst zu quantifizieren. Dazu sind Bodenproben unterschiedlicher Landnutzungen in einem kleineren Wassereinzugsgebiet im Rheingau im Labor, unter kontrollierten Bedingungen, untersucht. Der charakteristische Zusammenhang zwischen Bodenfeuchte und NO-Freisetzung, die sogenannte Bodenfeuchtekurve, kann demnach weitestgehend auf die gemessenen Bodenmerkmale der untersuchten Proben zurückgeführt werden. Anhand der Bodenmerkmale kann die Bodenfeuchtekurve zufriedenstellend vorhergesagt werden. Dabei zeigt vor allem der Humusgehalt der Böden einen dominierenden Einfluss. Er ist die Variable, die die Unterschiede der Böden beim Zusammenhang zwischen Bodenfeuchte und NO-Freisetzung am besten und hinreichend erklären kann. Zur Konstruktion der Bodenfeuchtekurve müssen die optimale Bodenfeuchte und die dabei herrschende Freisetzung, sowie die obere Bodenfeuchte, bei der keine NO-Freisetzung mehr stattfindet, bekannt sein. Diese charakteristischen Punkte lassen sich durch lineare Regressionsmodelle gut aus den Bodeneigenschaften ableiten. Auf räumlicher Ebene werden die Bodeneigenschaften durch die standörtlichen Bedingungen geprägt, die wiederum Ausdruck der landschaftlichen Ausstattung sind. In der Kulturlandschaft kann der Mensch aufgrund seiner Landnutzungsansprüche als der dominierende Faktor angesehen werden. Die Landnutzung orientiert sich an den landschaftlichen Bedingungen und bestimmt in hohem Maße wichtige Bodeneigenschaften, die zu den erklärenden Merkmalen bei der Beziehung zwischen Bodenwassergehalt und NO-Freisetzung gehören. Die in erster Linie wirtschaftlich orientierten Kartenwerke Bodenschätzung, Weinbergsbodenkartierung und forstliche Standortkartierung sind dementsprechend geeignete Grundlagen, um eine Regionalisierung der Landschaft in - bezüglich der NO-Freisetzung - weitgehend homogene Flächen durchführen zu können. Eine hierauf beruhende Regionalisierung ist dazu geeignet, die räumliche Variabilität der NO-Freisetzung in räumlich sinnvoller Auflösung besser abschätzen zu können.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Chlorophyll a content, protist biomass and experimental plankton growth and mortality in West Greenland water samples

We evaluated the role of microzooplankton (sensu latto, grazers <500 µm) in determining the fate of phytoplankton production (PP) along a glacier-to-open sea transect in the Greenland subarctic fjord, Godthabfjord. Based on the distribution of size fractionated chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations we established 4 zones: (1) Fyllas Bank, characterized by deep chl a maxima (ca. 30 to 40 m) consisting of large cells, (2) the mouth and main branch of the fjord, where phytoplankton was relatively homogeneously distributed in the upper 30 m layer, (3) inner waters influenced by glacial melt water and upwelling, with high chl a concentrations (up to 12 µg/l) in the >10 µm fraction within a narrow (2 m) subsurface layer, and (4) the Kapisigdlit branch of the fjord, ice-free, and characterized with a thick and deep chl a maximum layer. Overall, microzooplankton grazing impact on primary production was variable and seldom significant in the Fyllas Bank and mouth of the fjord, quite intensive (up to >100% potential PP consumed daily) in the middle part of the main and Kapisigdlit branches of the fjord, and rather low and unable to control the fast growing phytoplankton population inhabiting the nutrient rich waters in the upwelling area in the vicinity of the glacier. Most of the grazing impact was on the <10 µm phytoplankton fraction, and the major grazers of the system seem to be >20 µm microzooplankton, as deducted from additional dilution experiments removing this size fraction. Overall, little or no export of phytoplankton out of the fjord to the Fyllas Bank can be determined from our data.

Caracterización del crecimiento de plantines de Brassica rapa var. pekinensis en contenedores.

Brassica rapa var. pekinensis, hakusay, es una hortaliza cuya producción puede iniciarse a partir de transplantes o siembra directa. El objetivo de este trabajo fue caracterizar el crecimiento de plantines de esta hortaliza en contenedores, previo al transplante, a través de variables morfogenéticas y de crecimiento. La biomasa total (PST), el peso seco aéreo (PSA) y el peso seco de raíces (PSR) mostraron una tendencia creciente, particular en cada caso. El área foliar (AF) se incrementó hasta estabilizarse días antes del transplante, momento en el cual se observó el efecto limitante del contenedor. Las variables morfogenéticas: razón de área foliar (RAF) y área foliar específica (AFE) descendieron hasta alcanzar valores casi constantes la semana previa al transplante. Las variables de crecimiento: índice de crecimiento relativo de la planta (ICRP) e índice de crecimiento relativo foliar (ICRF) descendieron, el primero con valores superiores hasta el día 31, hecho que se refleja a través de Gamma (Gf); la tasa absoluta de crecimiento (TAC) se incrementó hasta el día 31 del período y después cayó abruptamente; la tasa de asimilación neta (TAN) creció hasta el día 31 posterior a la siembra para luego caer al final del período. El productor podría decidir el momento del transplante como aquel definido por la detención de la expansión foliar.

Influence of fertilization on the growth of radicchio "Rosso di Chioggia" cultivated in two different environments

Este trabajo evalúa la influencia de la fertilización en radicchio tipo "Rosso de Chioggia" (precocidad media) sobre algunos índices de crecimiento. Se realizaron ensayos durante dos campañas en Rovigo (Italia) y una en Mendoza (Argentina), aplicándose dosis crecientes de NPK, identificadas como N0P0K0, N1P1K1, N2P2K2, en Mendoza y en Rovigo, además, N3P2K2. Durante el cultivo se calcularon índices de crecimiento como: relative growth rate (RGR), net assimilation rate (NAR), leaf area ratio (LAR), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf weigh ratio (LWR), crop growth ratio (CGR), leaf area index (LAI) and leaf area duration (LAD). En Mendoza, el CGR estuvo fuertemente influenciado por NAR desde el trasplante hasta alcanzar 776 grados días (GDD); desde 1052 a 1653 GDD el CGR fue afectado por el LAI el cual aumentó marcadamente debido a las condiciones ambientales favorables. Entre los 1052 y 1653 GDD el incremento del LAI determinó una reducción en la eficiencia fotosintética. En Rovigo, la tendencia de los índices fue disímil en los dos años, encontrándose respuestas diferentes en LAR y en SLA. En el segundo año, el CGR siempre arrojó valores más altos, mientras que NAR no difirió en ninguno de los años. En la segunda mitad del ciclo, CGR estuvo fuertemente asociado a una menor eficiencia fotosintética, debido a la formación de la cabeza. Valores elevados de LAI indicaron una extensión del ciclo, retrasando la formación de la cabeza. Las plantas alcanzaron la madurez comercial con LWR entre 0,35 - 0,40 g g-1. En ambos ambientes, no se observó claramente el efecto de la fertilización sobre los índices; si bien las dosis más altas mostraron mayor actividad de crecimiento en las etapas tempranas.

Decreased light availability can amplify negative impacts of ocean acidification on calcifying coral reef organisms

Coral reef organisms are increasingly and simultaneously affected by global and local stressors such as ocean acidification (OA) and reduced light availability. However, knowledge of the interplay between OA and light availability is scarce. We exposed 2 calcifying coral reef species (the scleractinian coral Acropora millepora and the green alga Halimeda opuntia) to combinations of ambient and increased pCO2 (427 and 1073 µatm, respectively), and 2 light intensities (35 and 150 µmol photons/m**2/s) for 16 d. We evaluated the individual and combined effects of these 2 stressors on weight increase, calcification rates, O2 fluxes and chlorophyll a content for the species investigated. Weight increase of A. millepora was significantly reduced by OA (48%) and low light intensity (96%) compared to controls. While OA did not affect coral calcification in the light, it decreased calcification in the dark by 155%, leading to dissolution of the skeleton. H. opuntia weight increase was not affected by OA, but decreased (40%) at low light. OA did not affect algae calcification in the light, but decreased calcification in the dark by 164%, leading to dissolution. Low light significantly reduced gross photosynthesis (56 and 57%), net photosynthesis (62 and 60%) and respiration (43 and 48%) of A. millepora and H. opuntia, respectively. In contrast to A. millepora, H. opuntia significantly increased chlorophyll content by 15% over the course of the experiment. No interactive effects of OA and low light intensity were found on any response variable for either organism. However, A. millepora exhibited additive effects of OA and low light, while H. opuntia was only affected by low light. Thus, this study suggests that negative effects of low light and OA are additive on corals, which may have implications for management of river discharge into coastal coral reefs.

Increased CO2 modifies the carbon balance and the photosynthetic yield of two common Arctic brown seaweeds: Desmarestia aculeata and Alaria esculenta

Ocean acidification affects with special intensity Arctic ecosystems, being marine photosynthetic organisms a primary target, although the consequences of this process in the carbon fluxes of Arctic algae are still unknown. The alteration of the cellular carbon balance due to physiological acclimation to an increased CO2 concentration (1300 ppm) in the common Arctic brown seaweeds Desmarestia aculeata and Alaria esculenta from Kongsfjorden (Svalbard) was analysed. Growth rate of D. aculeata was negatively affected by CO2 enrichment, while A. esculenta was positively affected, as a result of a different reorganization of the cellular carbon budget in both species. Desmarestia aculeata showed increased respiration, enhanced accumulation of storage biomolecules and elevated release of dissolved organic carbon, whereas A. esculenta showed decreased respiration and lower accumulation of storage biomolecules. Gross photosynthesis (measured both as O2 evolution and 14C fixation) was not affected in any of them, suggesting that photosynthesis was already saturated at normal CO2 conditions and did not participate in the acclimation response. However, electron transport rate changed in both species in opposite directions, indicating different energy requirements between treatments and species specificity. High CO2 levels also affected the N-metabolism, and 13C isotopic discrimination values from algal tissue pointed to a deactivation of carbon concentrating mechanisms. Since increased CO2 has the potential to modify physiological mechanisms in different ways in the species studied, it is expected that this may lead to changes in the Arctic seaweed community, which may propagate to the rest of the food web.

Calcareous green alga Halimeda tolerates ocean acidification conditions at tropical carbon dioxide seeps

We investigated ecological, physiological, and skeletal characteristics of the calcifying green alga Halimeda grown at CO2 seeps (pHtotal ? 7.8) and compared them to those at control reefs with ambient CO2 conditions (pHtotal ? 8.1). Six species of Halimeda were recorded at both the high CO2 and control sites. For the two most abundant species Halimeda digitata and Halimeda opuntia we determined in situ light and dark oxygen fluxes and calcification rates, carbon contents and stable isotope signatures. In both species, rates of calcification in the light increased at the high CO2 site compared to controls (131% and 41%, respectively). In the dark, calcification was not affected by elevated CO2 in H. digitata, whereas it was reduced by 167% in H. opuntia, suggesting nocturnal decalcification. Calculated net calcification of both species was similar between seep and control sites, i.e., the observed increased calcification in light compensated for reduced dark calcification. However, inorganic carbon content increased (22%) in H. digitata and decreased (-8%) in H. opuntia at the seep site compared to controls. Significantly, lighter carbon isotope signatures of H. digitata and H. opuntia phylloids at high CO2 (1.01 per mil [parts per thousand] and 1.94 per mil, respectively) indicate increased photosynthetic uptake of CO2 over HCO3- potentially reducing dissolved inorganic carbon limitation at the seep site. Moreover, H. digitata and H. opuntia specimens transplanted for 14 d from the control to the seep site exhibited similar delta13C signatures as specimens grown there. These results suggest that the Halimeda spp. investigated can acclimatize and will likely still be capable to grow and calcify in inline image conditions exceeding most pessimistic future CO2 projections.

Carbonate chemistry, community metabolism, PAR, temperature and salinity of One Tree Island reef

There are few in situ studies showing how net community calcification (Gnet) of coral reefs is related to carbonate chemistry, and the studies to date have demonstrated different predicted rates of change. In this study, we measured net community production (Pnet), Gnet, and carbonate chemistry of a reef flat at One Tree Island, Great Barrier Reef. Diurnal pCO2 variability of 289-724 µatm was driven primarily by photosynthesis and respiration. The reef flat was found to be net autotrophic, with daily production of ? 35 mmol C/m**2/d and net calcification of ? 33 mmol C/m**2/d . Gnet was strongly related to Pnet, which drove a hysteresis pattern in the relationship between Gnet and aragonite saturation state (Omega ar). Although Pnet was the main driver of Gnet, Omega ar was still an important factor, where 95% of the variance in Gnet could be described by Pnet and Omega ar. Based on the observed in situ relationship, Gnet would be expected to reach zero when Omega ar is 2.5. It is unknown what proportion of a decline in Gnet would be through reduced calcification and what would occur through increased dissolution, but the results here support predictions that overall calcium carbonate production will decline in coral reefs as a result of ocean acidification.

Spatial community shift from hard to soft corals in acidified water

Anthropogenic increases in the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) cause ocean acidification, declining calcium carbonate saturation states, reduced coral reef calcification and changes in the compositions of marine communities. Most projected community changes due to ocean acidification describe transitions from hard coral to non-calcifying macroalgal communities; other organisms have received less attention, despite the biotic diversity of coral reef communities. We show that the spatial distributions of both hard and soft coral communities in volcanically acidified, semi-enclosed waters off Iwotorishima Island, Japan, are related to pCO2 levels. Hard corals are restricted to non-acidified low- pCO2 (225 µatm) zones, dense populations of the soft coral Sarcophyton elegans dominate medium- pCO2 (831 µatm) zones, and both hard and soft corals are absent from the highest- pCO2 (1,465 µatm) zone. In CO2-enriched culture experiments, high- pCO2 conditions benefited Sarcophyton elegans by enhancing photosynthesis rates and did not affect light calcification, but dark decalcification (negative net calcification) increased with increasing pCO2. These results suggest that reef communities may shift from reef-building hard corals to non-reef-building soft corals under pCO2 levels (550-970 µatm) predicted by the end of this century, and that higher pCO2 levels would challenge the survival of some reef organisms.

Coral-algae metabolism and diurnal changes in the CO2-carbonate system of bulk sea water

Precise measurements were conducted in continuous flow seawater mesocosms located in full sunlight that compared metabolic response of coral, coral-macroalgae and macroalgae systems over a diurnal cycle. Irradiance controlled net photosynthesis (Pnet), which in turn drove net calcification (Gnet), and altered pH. Pnet exerted the dominant control on [CO3]2- and aragonite saturation state (Omega arag) over the diel cycle. Dark calcification rate decreased after sunset, reaching zero near midnight followed by an increasing rate that peaked at 03:00 h. Changes in Omega arag and pH lagged behind Gnet throughout the daily cycle by two or more hours. The flux rate Pnet was the primary driver of calcification. Daytime coral metabolism rapidly removes dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the bulk seawater and photosynthesis provides the energy that drives Gnet while increasing the bulk water pH. These relationships result in a correlation between Gnet and Omega arag, with Omega arag as the dependent variable. High rates of H+ efflux continued for several hours following mid-day peak Gnet suggesting that corals have difficulty in shedding waste protons as described by the Proton Flux Hypothesis. DIC flux (uptake) followed Pnet and Gnet and dropped off rapidly following peak Pnet and peak Gnet indicating that corals can cope more effectively with the problem of limited DIC supply compared to the problem of eliminating H+. Over a 24 h period the plot of total alkalinity (AT) versus DIC as well as the plot of Gnet versus Omega arag revealed a circular hysteresis pattern over the diel cycle in the coral and coral-algae mesocosms, but not the macroalgae mesocosm. Presence of macroalgae did not change Gnet of the corals, but altered the relationship between Omega arag and Gnet. Predictive models of how future global changes will effect coral growth that are based on oceanic Omega arag must include the influence of future localized Pnet on Gnet and changes in rate of reef carbonate dissolution. The correlation between Omega arag and Gnet over the diel cycle is simply the response of the CO2-carbonate system to increased pH as photosynthesis shifts the equilibria and increases the [CO3]2- relative to the other DIC components of [HCO3]- and [CO2]. Therefore Omega arag closely tracked pH as an effect of changes in Pnet, which also drove changes in Gnet. Measurements of DIC flux and H+ flux are far more useful than concentrations in describing coral metabolism dynamics. Coral reefs are systems that exist in constant disequilibrium with the water column.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, community calcification and photosynthesis during experiments with coral reefs at Shiraho reef, Ishigaki Island, southwest Japan, 2009

Seven coral reef communities were defined on Shiraho fringing reef, Ishigaki Island, Japan. Net photosynthesis and calcification rates were measured by in situ incubations at 10 sites that included six of the defined communities, and which occupied most of the area on the reef flat and slope. Net photosynthesis on the reef flat was positive overall, but the reef flat acts as a source for atmospheric CO2, because the measured calcification/photosynthesis ratio of 2.5 is greater than the critical ratio of 1.67. Net photosynthesis on the reef slope was negative. Almost all excess organic production from the reef flat is expected to be effused to the outer reef and consumed by the communities there. Therefore, the total net organic production of the whole reef system is probably almost zero and the whole reef system also acts as a source for atmospheric CO2. Net calcification rates of the reef slope corals were much lower than those of the branching corals. The accumulation rate of the former was approximately 0.5 m kyr?1 and of the latter was ~0.7-5 m kyr?1. Consequently, reef slope corals could not grow fast enough to keep up with or catch up to rising sea levels during the Holocene. On the other hand, the branching corals grow fast enough to keep up with this rising sea level. Therefore, a transition between early Holocene and present-day reef communities is expected. Branching coral communities would have dominated while reef growth kept pace with sea level rise, and the reef was constructed with a branching coral framework. Then, the outside of this framework was covered and built up by reef slope corals and present-day reefs were constructed.