Do Public Private Partnerships Improve Road Safety? The Case of Toll Concessions in Spain

El Transportation Research Board es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte. Aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to evaluate whether PPPs lead to an improvement in road safety, when compared with other infrastructure management systems. Second, is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPP contracts in Spain have been effective at improving safety performance. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high-capacity network covering years 2007-2009. The results showed that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not manageable by the private concessionaire such as the average annual daily traffic, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of accidents.

AVALIAÇÃO DAS ALTERAÇÕES DENTÁRIAS E DO PERFIL FACIAL OBTIDAS NO TRATAMENTO ORTODÔNTICO COM BRAQUETES AUTOLIGADOS

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar as inclinações dentárias e o perfil facial de pacientes tratados ortodonticamente com braquete autoligado Damon 2, prescrição padrão. Para este estudo, foi selecionada uma amostra de 18 indivíduos, sendo 12 do sexo masculino e 6 do feminino, com idades que variaram de 12 a 20 anos (idade média de 15 anos) e que apresentavam discrepância de modelo negativa (de 4 mm a 15 mm). Como critério de inclusão, os pacientes deveriam apresentar dentição permanente completa até os segundos molares, má oclusão de Classe I de Angle, telerradiografias em norma lateral do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico e modelos de estudo em gesso dos arcos dentários superiores e inferiores do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico. As medições das inclinações ântero-posteriores dos incisivos centrais superiores e incisivos centrais inferiores e alterações do perfil facial foram realizadas por meio das telerradiografias em norma lateral. As distâncias transversais das regiões de cúspide e cervical inter-caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares, foram obtidas medindo-se os modelos de gesso. Todas as mensurações foram realizadas nas telerradiografias e modelos de gesso obtidos antes do início do tratamento ortodôntico (T1) e no final do tratamento (T2). Após a coleta de todos os dados aplicou-se o teste t de Student para comparar as medidas dos dois tempos avaliados neste estudo. Verificou-se diferença estatisticamente significante (p<0,05) na inclinação dos incisivos centrais inferiores e nas dimensões transversais inter-cúspides e inter-cervicais dos primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares na maxila. Na mandíbula todas as distâncias transversais (inter cúspides e cervicais) de caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares apresentaram significância estatística (p<0,05), exceto a distância inter-cervical dos caninos inferiores. Concluímos que o tratamento ortodôntico sem extrações de pacientes com má oclusão de Classe I realizados com os braquetes Damon 2, prescrição padrão, não promoveu alteração na inclinação vestíbulo-lingual dos incisivos centrais superiores, aumentou a inclinação vestibular dos incisivos centrais inferiores, não alterou o perfil facial e aumentou de modo significativo a dimensão transversal da maxila e da mandíbula por meio de inclinação vestibular de coroa.(AU)

AVALIAÇÃO DAS ALTERAÇÕES DENTÁRIAS E DO PERFIL FACIAL OBTIDAS NO TRATAMENTO ORTODÔNTICO COM BRAQUETES AUTOLIGADOS

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar as inclinações dentárias e o perfil facial de pacientes tratados ortodonticamente com braquete autoligado Damon 2, prescrição padrão. Para este estudo, foi selecionada uma amostra de 18 indivíduos, sendo 12 do sexo masculino e 6 do feminino, com idades que variaram de 12 a 20 anos (idade média de 15 anos) e que apresentavam discrepância de modelo negativa (de 4 mm a 15 mm). Como critério de inclusão, os pacientes deveriam apresentar dentição permanente completa até os segundos molares, má oclusão de Classe I de Angle, telerradiografias em norma lateral do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico e modelos de estudo em gesso dos arcos dentários superiores e inferiores do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico. As medições das inclinações ântero-posteriores dos incisivos centrais superiores e incisivos centrais inferiores e alterações do perfil facial foram realizadas por meio das telerradiografias em norma lateral. As distâncias transversais das regiões de cúspide e cervical inter-caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares, foram obtidas medindo-se os modelos de gesso. Todas as mensurações foram realizadas nas telerradiografias e modelos de gesso obtidos antes do início do tratamento ortodôntico (T1) e no final do tratamento (T2). Após a coleta de todos os dados aplicou-se o teste t de Student para comparar as medidas dos dois tempos avaliados neste estudo. Verificou-se diferença estatisticamente significante (p<0,05) na inclinação dos incisivos centrais inferiores e nas dimensões transversais inter-cúspides e inter-cervicais dos primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares na maxila. Na mandíbula todas as distâncias transversais (inter cúspides e cervicais) de caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares apresentaram significância estatística (p<0,05), exceto a distância inter-cervical dos caninos inferiores. Concluímos que o tratamento ortodôntico sem extrações de pacientes com má oclusão de Classe I realizados com os braquetes Damon 2, prescrição padrão, não promoveu alteração na inclinação vestíbulo-lingual dos incisivos centrais superiores, aumentou a inclinação vestibular dos incisivos centrais inferiores, não alterou o perfil facial e aumentou de modo significativo a dimensão transversal da maxila e da mandíbula por meio de inclinação vestibular de coroa.(AU)

Moderating Variables Impacting Adherence to the Reducing Disability in Alzheimer's Disease (RDAD) Intervention

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Polymorphisms in glutathione S-transferases and non-melanoma skin cancer risk in Australian renal transplant recipients

Caucasian renal transplant recipients from Queensland, Australia have the highest non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) risk worldwide. Although ultraviolet light (UVR) exposure is critical, genetic factors also appear important. We and others have shown that polymorphism in the glutathione S-transferases (GST) is associated with NMSC in UK recipients. However, the effect of high UVR exposure and differences in immunosuppressive regimen on these associations is unknown. In this study, we examined allelism in GSTM1, GSTM3, GSTT1 and GSTP1 in 361 Queensland renal transplant recipients. Data on squamous (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC), UVR/tobacco exposure and genotype were obtained. Associations with both NMSC risk and numbers were examined using logistic and negative binomial regression, respectively. In the total group, GSTM1 AB [P = 0.049, rate ratio (RR) = 0.23] and GSTM3 AA (P = 0.015, RR = 0.50) were associated with fewer SCC. Recipients were then stratified by prednisolone dose (less than or equal to7 versus >7 mg/day). In the low-dose group, GSTT1 null (P = 0.006, RR = 0.20) and GSTP1 Val/Val (P = 0.021, RR = 0.20) were associated with SCC numbers. In contrast, in the high-dose group, GSTM1 AB (P = 0.009, RR = 0.05), GSTM3 AB (P = 0.042, RR = 2.29) and BB (P = 0.014, RR = 5.31) and GSTP1 Val/Val (P = 0.036, RR = 2.98) were associated with SCC numbers. GSTM1 AB (P = 0.016) and GSTP1 Val/Val (P = 0.046) were also associated with fewer BCC in this group. GSTP1 associations were strongest in recipients with lower UVR/tobacco exposure. The data confirm our UK findings, suggesting that protection against UVR-induced oxidative stress is important in NMSC development in recipients, but that this effect depends on the immunosuppressant regimen.

Food intake and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in a community: The Nambour skin cancer cohort study

There is some evidence that dietary factors may modify the risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin, but the association between food intake and SCC has not been evaluated prospectively. We examined the association between food intake and SCC incidence among 1,056 randomly selected adults living in an Australian sub-tropical community. Measurement-error corrected estimates of intake in 15 food groups were defined from a validated food frequency questionnaire in 1992. Associations with SCC risk were assessed using Poisson and negative binomial regression to the persons affected and tumour counts, respectively, based on incident, histologically confirmed tumours occurring between 1992 and 2002. After multivariable adjustment, none of the food groups was significantly associated with SCC risk. Stratified analysis in participants with a past history of skin cancer showed a decreased risk of SCC tumours for high intakes of green leafy vegetables (RR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.22-0.91; p for trend = 0.02) and an increased risk for high intake of unmodified dairy products (RR = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.15-5.54; p for trend = 0.03). Food intake was not associated with SCC risk in persons who had no past history of skin cancer. These findings suggest that consumption of green leafy vegetables may help prevent development of subsequent SCCs of the skin among people with previous skin cancer and that consumption of unmodified dairy products, such as whole milk, cheese and yoghurt, may increase SCC risk in susceptible persons.

AVALIAÇÃO DAS ALTERAÇÕES DENTÁRIAS E DO PERFIL FACIAL OBTIDAS NO TRATAMENTO ORTODÔNTICO COM BRAQUETES AUTOLIGADOS

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar as inclinações dentárias e o perfil facial de pacientes tratados ortodonticamente com braquete autoligado Damon 2, prescrição padrão. Para este estudo, foi selecionada uma amostra de 18 indivíduos, sendo 12 do sexo masculino e 6 do feminino, com idades que variaram de 12 a 20 anos (idade média de 15 anos) e que apresentavam discrepância de modelo negativa (de 4 mm a 15 mm). Como critério de inclusão, os pacientes deveriam apresentar dentição permanente completa até os segundos molares, má oclusão de Classe I de Angle, telerradiografias em norma lateral do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico e modelos de estudo em gesso dos arcos dentários superiores e inferiores do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico. As medições das inclinações ântero-posteriores dos incisivos centrais superiores e incisivos centrais inferiores e alterações do perfil facial foram realizadas por meio das telerradiografias em norma lateral. As distâncias transversais das regiões de cúspide e cervical inter-caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares, foram obtidas medindo-se os modelos de gesso. Todas as mensurações foram realizadas nas telerradiografias e modelos de gesso obtidos antes do início do tratamento ortodôntico (T1) e no final do tratamento (T2). Após a coleta de todos os dados aplicou-se o teste t de Student para comparar as medidas dos dois tempos avaliados neste estudo. Verificou-se diferença estatisticamente significante (p<0,05) na inclinação dos incisivos centrais inferiores e nas dimensões transversais inter-cúspides e inter-cervicais dos primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares na maxila. Na mandíbula todas as distâncias transversais (inter cúspides e cervicais) de caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares apresentaram significância estatística (p<0,05), exceto a distância inter-cervical dos caninos inferiores. Concluímos que o tratamento ortodôntico sem extrações de pacientes com má oclusão de Classe I realizados com os braquetes Damon 2, prescrição padrão, não promoveu alteração na inclinação vestíbulo-lingual dos incisivos centrais superiores, aumentou a inclinação vestibular dos incisivos centrais inferiores, não alterou o perfil facial e aumentou de modo significativo a dimensão transversal da maxila e da mandíbula por meio de inclinação vestibular de coroa.(AU)

Models of Alternating Renewal Process at Discrete Time

We study a class of models used with success in the modelling of climatological sequences. These models are based on the notion of renewal. At first, we examine the probabilistic aspects of these models to afterwards study the estimation of their parameters and their asymptotical properties, in particular the consistence and the normality. We will discuss for applications, two particular classes of alternating renewal processes at discrete time. The first class is defined by laws of sojourn time that are translated negative binomial laws and the second class, suggested by Green is deduced from alternating renewal process in continuous time with sojourn time laws which are exponential laws with parameters α^0 and α^1 respectively.

Dimensioning BCH codes for coherent DQPSK systems with laser phase noise and cycle slips

Forward error correction (FEC) plays a vital role in coherent optical systems employing multi-level modulation. However, much of coding theory assumes that additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) is dominant, whereas coherent optical systems have significant phase noise (PN) in addition to AWGN. This changes the error statistics and impacts FEC performance. In this paper, we propose a novel semianalytical method for dimensioning binary Bose-Chaudhuri-Hocquenghem (BCH) codes for systems with PN. Our method involves extracting statistics from pre-FEC bit error rate (BER) simulations. We use these statistics to parameterize a bivariate binomial model that describes the distribution of bit errors. In this way, we relate pre-FEC statistics to post-FEC BER and BCH codes. Our method is applicable to pre-FEC BER around 10-3 and any post-FEC BER. Using numerical simulations, we evaluate the accuracy of our approach for a target post-FEC BER of 10-5. Codes dimensioned with our bivariate binomial model meet the target within 0.2-dB signal-to-noise ratio.

Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.

UPTAKE OF THE PERIODIC HEALTH EXAM AMONG ADULTS WITH INTELLECTUAL AND DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES FROM 2003 TO 2015

Background: Over the past decade, annual heath exams have been de-emphasized for the general population but emphasized for adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). The purpose of this project was to determine if there has been an increase in the uptake of the health exam among adults with IDD in Ontario, to what extent, and the effect on the quality of preventive care provided. Methods: Using administrative health data, the proportion of adults (18-64 years old) with IDD who received a health exam (long appointment, general assessment, and “true” health exam), a high value on the primary care quality composite score (PCQS), and a health exam or high PCQS each year was compared to the proportion in a propensity score matched sample of the general population. Negative binomial and segmented negative binomial regression controlling for age and sex were used to determine the relative risk of having a health exam/high PCQS/health exam or PCQS over time. Results: Pre joinpoint, the long appointment and general assessment health exam definitions saw a decrease and the “true” health exam saw an increase in the likelihood of adults having a health exam. Post joinpoint, all health exam definitions saw a decrease in the likelihood of adults having a health exam. Pre joinpoint, all PCQS measures (high PCQS, long appointment or high PCQS, “true” health exam or high PCQS) saw an increase in the likelihood for adults to achieve a high PCQS or high PCQS/have a health exam. Post joinpoint, all PCQS measures saw a decrease in the likelihood for adults to achieve a high PCQS or high PCQS/have a health exam. Achieving a high PCQS was strongly associated with having a health exam regardless of health exam definition or IDD status. Conclusions: Despite the publication of guidelines, only a small proportion of adults with IDD are receiving health exams. This indicates that the publication of guidelines alone was not sufficient to change practice. More targeted measures, such as the implementation of an IDD-specific health exam fee code, should be considered to increase the uptake of the health exam among adults with IDD.

Upgrading Bridge Rails on Low-Volume Roads in Iowa, TR-679, 2016

Building on previous research, the goal of this project was to identify significant influencing factors for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) to consider in future updates of its Instructional Memorandum (I.M.) 3.213, which provides guidelines for determining the need for traffic barriers (guardrail and bridge rail) at secondary roadway bridges—specifically, factors that might be significant for the bridge rail rating system component of I.M. 3.213. A literature review was conducted of policies and guidelines in other states and, specifically, of studies related to traffic barrier safety countermeasures at bridges in several states. In addition, a safety impact study was conducted to evaluate possible non-driver-related behavior characteristics of crashes on secondary road structures in Iowa using road data, structure data, and crash data from 2004 to 2013. Statistical models (negative binomial regression) were used to determine which factors were significant in terms of crash volume and crash severity. The study found that crashes are somewhat more frequent on or at bridges possessing certain characteristics—traffic volume greater than 400 vehicles per day (vpd) (paved) or greater than 50 vpd (unpaved), bridge length greater than 150 ft (paved) or greater than 35 ft (unpaved), bridge width narrower than its approach (paved) or narrower than 20 ft (unpaved), and bridges older than 25 years (both paved and unpaved). No specific roadway or bridge characteristic was found to contribute to more serious crashes. The study also confirmed previous research findings that crashes with bridges on secondary roads are rare, low-severity events. Although the findings of the study support the need for appropriate use of bridge rails, it concludes that prescriptive guidelines for bridge rail use on secondary roads may not be necessary, given the limited crash expectancy and lack of differences in crash expectancy among the various combinations of explanatory characteristics.

Distribuição espacial de adultos de Empoasca kraemeri (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) em pinhão-manso Jatropha curcas L.

2016

Co-Infestation and Spatial Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and Anastrepha spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Common Guava in the Eastern Amazon.

Field infestation and spatial distribution of introduced Bactrocera carambolae Drew and Hancock and native species of Anastrepha in common guavas [Psidium guajava (L.)] were investigated in the eastern Amazon. Fruit sampling was carried out in the municipalities of Calc¸oene and Oiapoque in the state of Amapa, Brazil. The frequency distribution of larvae in fruit was fitted to the negative binomial distribution. Anastrepha striata was more abundant in both sampled areas in comparison to Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann) and B. carambolae. The frequency distribution analysis of adults revealed an aggregated pattern for B. carambolae as well as for A. fraterculus and Anastrepha striata Schiner, described by the negative binomial distribution. Although the populations of Anastrepha spp. may have suffered some impact due to the presence of B. carambolae, the results are still not robust enough to indicate effective reduction in the abundance of Anastrepha spp. caused by B. carambolae in a general sense. The high degree of aggregation observed for both species suggests interspecific co-occurrence with the simultaneous presence of both species in the analysed fruit. Moreover, a significant fraction of uninfested guavas also indicated absence of competitive displacement.

Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.