Promoting microbial immobilization of soil nitrogen during restoration of abandoned agricultural fields by organic additions

Application of organic materials to soils to enhance N immobilization into microbial biomass, thereby reducing inorganic N concentrations, was studied as a management option to accelerate the reestablishment of the native vegetation on abandoned arable fields on sandy soils the Kiskunsag National Park, Hungary. Sucrose and sawdust were used at three different topographic sites over 4 years. N availability and extractable inorganic N concentrations were significantly reduced in all sites. Soil microbial biomass C and microbial biomass N increased significantly following C additions, but the microbial C to microbial N ratio remained unaffected. It is concluded that the combined application of the rapidly utilized C source (sucrose) promoted N immobilization, whereas the addition of the slowly utilized C source (sawdust) maintained the elevated microbial biomass C and microbial biomass N in the field.

Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'don't know' responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness-to-pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rich and famous: recognition-based judgment in the Sunday Times rich list

Recognition as a cue to judgment in a novel, multi-option domain (the Sunday Times Rich List) is explored. As in previous studies, participants were found to make use of name recognition as a cue to the presumed wealth of individuals. Names that were recognized were judged to be the richest name from amongst the set presented at above chance levels. This effect persisted across situations in which more than one name was recognized; recognition was used as an inclusion criterion for the sub-set of names to be considered the richest of the set presented. However, when the question was reversed, and a “poorest” judgment was required, use of recognition as an exclusion criterion was observed only when a single name was recognized. Reaction times when making these judgments also show a distinction between “richest” and “poorest” questions with recognition of none of the options taking the longest time to judge in the “richest” question condition and full recognition of all the names presented taking longest to judge in the “poorest” question condition. Implications for decision-making using simple heuristics are discussed.

Local management and landscape drivers of pollination and biological control services in a Kenyan agro-ecosystem

Arthropods that have a direct impact on crop production (i.e. pests, natural enemies and pollinators) can be influenced by both local farm management and the context within which the fields occur in the wider landscape. However, the contributions and spatial scales at which these drivers operate and interact are not fully understood, particularly in the developing world. The impact of both local management and landscape context on insect pollinators and natural enemy communities and on their capacity to deliver related ecosystem services to an economically important tropical crop, pigeonpea was investigated. The study was conducted in nine paired farms across a gradient of increasing distance to semi-native vegetation in Kibwezi, Kenya. Results show that proximity of fields to semi-native habitats negatively affected pollinator and chewing insect abundance. Within fields, pesticide use was a key negative predictor of pollinator, pest and foliar active predator abundance. On the contrary, fertilizer application significantly enhanced pollinator and both chewing and sucking insect pest abundance. At a 1 km spatial scale of fields, there were significant negative effects of the number of semi-native habitat patches within fields dominated by mass flowering pigeonpea on pollinators abundance. For service provision, a significant decline in fruit set when insects were excluded from flowers was recorded. This study reveals the interconnections of pollinators, predators and pests with pigeonpea crop. For sustainable yields and to conserve high densities of both pollinators and predators of pests within pigeonpea landscapes, it is crucial to target the adoption of less disruptive farm management practices such as reducing pesticide and fertilizer inputs.

HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Are existing biodiversity conservation strategies appropriate in a changing climate?

Many countries have conservation plans for threatened species, but such plans have generally been developed without taking into account the potential impacts of climate change. Here, we apply a decision framework, specifically developed to identify and prioritise climate change adaptation actions and demonstrate its use for 30 species threatened in the UK. Our aim is to assess whether government conservation recommendations remain appropriate under a changing climate. The species, associated with three different habitats (lowland heath, broadleaved woodland and calcareous grassland), were selected from a range of taxonomic groups (primarily moths and vascular plants, but also including bees, bryophytes, carabid beetles and spiders). We compare the actions identified for these threatened species by the decision framework with those included in existing conservation plans, as developed by the UK Government's statutory adviser on nature conservation. We find that many existing conservation recommendations are also identified by the decision framework. However, there are large differences in the spatial prioritisation of actions when explicitly considering projected climate change impacts. This includes recommendations for actions to be carried out in areas where species do not currently occur, in order to allow them to track movement of suitable conditions for their survival. Uncertainties in climate change projections are not a reason to ignore them. Our results suggest that existing conservation plans, which do not take into account potential changes in suitable climatic conditions for species, may fail to maximise species persistence. Comparisons across species also suggest a more habitat-focused approach could be adopted to enable climate change adaptation for multiple species.

The numbers of sample design for evaluation of the soil fertility

The determination of the amount of sample units that will compose the sample express the optimization of the workforce, and reduce errors inherent in the report of recommendation and evaluation of soil fertility. This study aimed to determine in three systems use and soil management, the numbers of units samples design, needed to form the composed sample, for evaluation of soil fertility. It was concluded that the number of sample units needed to compose the composed sample to determination the attributes of organic matter, pH, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al and H+Al and base saturation of soil vary by use and soil management and error acceptable to the mean estimate. For the same depth of collected, increasing the number of sample units, reduced the percentage error in estimating the average, allowing the recommendation of 14, 14 and 11 sample in management with native vegetation, pasture cultivation and corn, respectively, for a error 20% on the mean estimate.

Carnivore mammals in a fragmented landscape in northeast of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Sao Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and little of its native vegetation remains. In Luiz Antonio and Santa Rita do Passa Quatro municipalities, only small fragments of cerrado (Brazilian savanna) physiognomies (cerrado, cerrado sensu stricto) and of semideciduous forest have been left, surrounded by eucalyptus silviculture and sugar-cane agriculture. However, that vegetation mosaic still shelters large mammals, including several carnivore species. To detect the carnivores present in such a mosaic area (50,000 ha), and to find out how they use the landscape, we recorded them through 21 camera traps and 21 track plots, during 18 months. Species richness, diversity and relative frequency were evaluated according to the habitat. Ten species were recorded, some of them locally threatened to extinction (Puma concolor, Leopardus pardalis, Chrysocyon brachyurus). Species diversity did not significantly differ among fragments, and although most species preferred one or another habitat, the carnivore community as a whole explored all the study area regardless of the vegetation cover;eucalyptus plantations were as used by the carnivores as the native fragments. Therefore, it seems possible to maintain such animals in agricultural landscapes, where some large native fragments are left and the matrix is permeable to native fauna.

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

Price discovery using a regime-sensitive cointegration approach

This work proposes a method to examine variations in the cointegration relation between preferred and common stocks in the Brazilian stock market via Markovian regime switches. It aims on contributing for future works in "pairs trading" and, more specifically, to price discovery, given that, conditional on the state, the system is assumed stationary. This implies there exists a (conditional) moving average representation from which measures of "information share" (IS) could be extracted. For identification purposes, the Markov error correction model is estimated within a Bayesian MCMC framework. Inference and capability of detecting regime changes are shown using a Montecarlo experiment. I also highlight the necessity of modeling financial effects of high frequency data for reliable inference.

Atributos de qualidade de solos sob dois diferentes tipos de manejo no município de Ibiúna/SP, Brazil

Agricultural activity has direct consequences on the soil and water quality. Thus, assessing environmental impacts of this vital economic activity, through soil attribute analysis, is essential to the proposal of alternatives. The aim of this study was to analyze soil quality under different land management practices, conventional and organic. The study was carried out in a watershed of the Ibiuna municipality, SP, Brazil, an important supplier of agricultural products for the São Paulo metropolitan area. A hundred samples were collected, 20 in each type of land use: reforested areas, native vegetation, pasture, conventional cultivation and organic cultivation. The soil resistance to penetration, its pH (in water and KO), electrical conductivity, bulk density, particle density, porosity, soil color, soil texture and the percentages of carbon and nitrogen were analyzed. The data were statistically analyzed, searching for significant differences. The results of soil analysis showed great similarity between the organic and conventional culture, with no statistical differences. However, organic cultivation showed greater similarity to the soil of native vegetation in the percentage of carbon and nitrogen in soils compared to conventional culture. Thus, the discussion begins on a topic very little explored so far, and the results obtained should be further studied.

Composição da fauna de formigas (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) de serapilheira em florestas semidecídua e de Eucalyptus spp., na região sudeste do Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Movimento de borboletas frugívoras e conectividade funcional em uma paisagem de Mata Atlântica

An organisms movement within and between habitats is an essential trait of life history, one that shapes population dynamics, communities and ecosystems in space and time. Since the ability to perceive and react to specific conditions varies greatly between organisms, different movement patterns are generated. These, in turn, will reflect the way species persist in the original habitat and surrounding patches. This study evaluated patterns of movement of frugivorous butterflies in order to estimate the connectivity of a landscape mosaic in an area of Atlantic Forest. For this purpose, we used the capture-mark-recapture method on butterflies trapped with fermented fruit bait in three distinct habitats. The first represents a typical Atlantic forest fragment, while the other two represent man-made matrix habitats. One contains a coconut plantation and the other a plantation of the exotic Acacia mangium species. Five traps were randomly placed in each landscape unit in areas of 40 x 40m. Using recapture data and relating it to distance between captures and habitat structure, I found that movement frequencies, both within and between landscape units were different for the analyzed species, suggesting that they do not interpret and react to the landscape in the same way. Thus this study was able to measure landscape functional connectivity. For most species, the exchange between forest and coconut plantations occurred with low frequency compared to exchanges between the forest and acacia plantations, which share more structural similarities. This seems to indicate that a matrix that is more similar to patches of native vegetation can shelter species, permit their movement and, consequently, contribute to the landscape connectivity

Influência do manejo do solo nas propriedades químicas e físicas em topossequência na bacia do rio Araguaia, Estado do Tocantins

A conversão do Cerrado nativo em áreas de exploração agrícola pode modificar os processos de decomposição e síntese da matéria orgânica do solo e, assim, na disponibilidade de nutrientes. Objetivou-se avaliar as propriedades químicas e físicas do solo em topossequência caracterizada por apresentar uso com pastagem cultivada com Brachiaria brizantha ao lado do Cerrado nativo, na camada de 0- 15 cm de profundidade. O estudo foi realizado no município de Colmeia, Estado do Tocantins. Foram determinados 10 pontos de coleta (cinco para Cerrado nativo e cinco para pasto) para cada posição do relevo (topo, encosta e pedimento); em cada ponto amostral, foram coletados solos em três profundidades (0-5, 5-10 e 10- 15 cm), totalizando 90 amostras. Foram realizadas as seguintes análises químicas e físicas: C orgânico, P, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, H + Al, pH e granulometria. O C orgânico não apresentou diferença (p > 0,05) entre os valores encontrados no Cerrado nativo e pastagem e as posições do relevo avaliadas. A conversão de Cerrado nativo para uso agropecuário reduziu os teores de P. Os teores de K trocável não foram alterados pela retirada da cobertura vegetal original. Observou-se aumento dos teores de areia quando se passou da meia-encosta para o pedimento.

Qualidade física de um latossolo vermelho férrico sob sistemas de uso e manejo

The soil physical quality is defined as the soil capacity to maintain the sustainable productivity during the years. To assess soil physical quality, attributes were evaluated in the layers of 0.0-0.10, 0.10-0.20, 0.20-0.30, 0.30-0.40 m in acrustox. The experimental design was entirely randomized, with four systems of use ( corn, sugar-cane, pasture and native vegetation), four soil depths and four replications. The parameter evaluated were: texture, degree of clay flocculation, soil bulk density, porosity, water retention and "S" parameter. The usage and management systems caused soil physical degradation, being greater in pasture system with intensive usage, with smaller soil physical quality for plants development. The soil physical quality, evaluated by physical attributes, followed the following order: native vegetation > maize > sugar-cane > pasture. The Oxisol, although shows present excellent physical structure and needs an adequate management to prevent excessive compaction.