Multicriteria decision making: a case study in the automobile industry

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been one of the fastest-growing areas of operations research during the last decades. The academic attention devoted to MCDA motivated the development of a great variety of approaches and methods within the field. These methods distinguish themselves in terms of procedures, theoretical assumptions and type of decision addressed. This diversity poses challenges to the process of selecting the most suited method for a specific real-world decision problem. In this paper we present a case study in a real-world decision problem arising in the painting sector of an automobile plant. We tackle the problem by resorting to the well-known AHP method and to the MCDA method proposed by Pereira and Fontes (2012) (MMASSI). By relying on two, rather than one, MCDA methods we expect to improve the confidence and robustness of the obtained results. The contributions of this paper are twofold: first, we intend to investigate the contrasts and similarities of the results obtained by distinct MCDA approaches (AHP and MMASSI); secondly, we expect to enrich the literature of the field with a real-world MCDA case study on a complex decision making problem since there is a paucity of applied research work addressing real decision problems faced by organizations.

Using data mining techniques to support breast cancer diagnosis

More than ever, there is an increase of the number of decision support methods and computer aided diagnostic systems applied to various areas of medicine. In breast cancer research, many works have been done in order to reduce false-positives when used as a double reading method. In this study, we aimed to present a set of data mining techniques that were applied to approach a decision support system in the area of breast cancer diagnosis. This method is geared to assist clinical practice in identifying mammographic findings such as microcalcifications, masses and even normal tissues, in order to avoid misdiagnosis. In this work a reliable database was used, with 410 images from about 115 patients, containing previous reviews performed by radiologists as microcalcifications, masses and also normal tissue findings. Throughout this work, two feature extraction techniques were used: the gray level co-occurrence matrix and the gray level run length matrix. For classification purposes, we considered various scenarios according to different distinct patterns of injuries and several classifiers in order to distinguish the best performance in each case described. The many classifiers used were Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines, k-nearest Neighbors and Decision Trees (J48 and Random Forests). The results in distinguishing mammographic findings revealed great percentages of PPV and very good accuracy values. Furthermore, it also presented other related results of classification of breast density and BI-RADS® scale. The best predictive method found for all tested groups was the Random Forest classifier, and the best performance has been achieved through the distinction of microcalcifications. The conclusions based on the several tested scenarios represent a new perspective in breast cancer diagnosis using data mining techniques.

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a decision support tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy resource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Strategic Bidding for Electricity Markets Negotiation Using Support Vector Machines

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator.

Intelligent decision support systems for collaboration in industrial plants

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Sistemas de Informação Industriais, Engenharia Electrotécnica, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Child abuse monitor system model: a health care critical knowledge monitor system

The Childhood protection is a subject with high value for the society, but, the Child Abuse cases are difficult to identify. The process from suspicious to accusation is very difficult to achieve. It must configure very strong evidences. Typically, Health Care services deal with these cases from the beginning where there are evidences based on the diagnosis, but they aren’t enough to promote the accusation. Besides that, this subject it’s highly sensitive because there are legal aspects to deal with such as: the patient privacy, paternity issues, medical confidentiality, among others. We propose a Child Abuses critical knowledge monitor system model that addresses this problem. This decision support system is implemented with a multiple scientific domains: to capture of tokens from clinical documents from multiple sources; a topic model approach to identify the topics of the documents; knowledge management through the use of ontologies to support the critical knowledge sensibility concepts and relations such as: symptoms, behaviors, among other evidences in order to match with the topics inferred from the clinical documents and then alert and log when clinical evidences are present. Based on these alerts clinical personnel could analyze the situation and take the appropriate procedures.

Step towards multiplatform framework for supporting pediatric and neonatology care unit decision process

Children are an especially vulnerable population, particularly in respect to drug administration. It is estimated that neonatal and pediatric patients are at least three times more vulnerable to damage due to adverse events and medication errors than adults are. With the development of this framework, it is intended the provision of a Clinical Decision Support System based on a prototype already tested in a real environment. The framework will include features such as preparation of Total Parenteral Nutrition prescriptions, table pediatric and neonatal emergency drugs, medical scales of morbidity and mortality, anthropometry percentiles (weight, length/height, head circumference and BMI), utilities for supporting medical decision on the treatment of neonatal jaundice and anemia and support for technical procedures and other calculators and widespread use tools. The solution in development means an extension of INTCare project. The main goal is to provide an approach to get the functionality at all times of clinical practice and outside the hospital environment for dissemination, education and simulation of hypothetical situations. The aim is also to develop an area for the study and analysis of information and extraction of knowledge from the data collected by the use of the system. This paper presents the architecture, their requirements and functionalities and a SWOT analysis of the solution proposed.

Intelligent decision support to predict patient barotrauma risk in intensive care units

The occurrence of Barotrauma is identified as a major concern for health professionals, since it can be fatal for patients. In order to support the decision process and to predict the risk of occurring barotrauma Data Mining models were induced. Based on this principle, the present study addresses the Data Mining process aiming to provide hourly probability of a patient has Barotrauma. The process of discovering implicit knowledge in data collected from Intensive Care Units patientswas achieved through the standard process Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining. With the goal of making predictions according to the classification approach they several DM techniques were selected: Decision Trees, Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine. The study was focused on identifying the validity and viability to predict a composite variable. To predict the Barotrauma two classes were created: “risk” and “no risk”. Such target come from combining two variables: Plateau Pressure and PCO2. The best models presented a sensitivity between 96.19% and 100%. In terms of accuracy the values varied between 87.5% and 100%. This study and the achieved results demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the risk of a patient having Barotrauma by presenting the probability associated.

BeSmart2: A multicriteria decision aid application

This paper presents an improved version of an application whose goal is to provide a simple and intuitive way to use multicriteria decision methods in day-to-day decision problems. The application allows comparisons between several alternatives with several criteria, always keeping a permanent backup of both model and results, and provides a framework to incorporate new methods in the future. Developed in C#, the application implements the AHP, SMART and Value Functions methods.

Sistema de apoio à decisão clínica: quality of life system

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Real-Time decision support using data mining to predict blood pressure critical events in intensive medicine patients

Patient blood pressure is an important vital signal to the physicians take a decision and to better understand the patient condition. In Intensive Care Units is possible monitoring the blood pressure due the fact of the patient being in continuous monitoring through bedside monitors and the use of sensors. The intensivist only have access to vital signs values when they look to the monitor or consult the values hourly collected. Most important is the sequence of the values collected, i.e., a set of highest or lowest values can signify a critical event and bring future complications to a patient as is Hypotension or Hypertension. This complications can leverage a set of dangerous diseases and side-effects. The main goal of this work is to predict the probability of a patient has a blood pressure critical event in the next hours by combining a set of patient data collected in real-time and using Data Mining classification techniques. As output the models indicate the probability (%) of a patient has a Blood Pressure Critical Event in the next hour. The achieved results showed to be very promising, presenting sensitivity around of 95%.

The EPAGE internet guideline as a decision support tool for determining the appropriateness of colonoscopy

RÉSUMÉ Contexte : Peu d'études ont examiné la façon dont les médecins appréhendent les guidelines, et encore moins celle dont ils perçoivent de tels guidelines disponibles sur Internet. Cette étude évalue l'acceptation par les médecins d'un guideline électronique portant sur l'adéquation de la colonoscopie. Méthode : Des gastroentérologues participant à une étude observationnelle internationale ont consulté un guideline électronique pour une série consécutive de patients adressés pour une colonoscopie. Le guideline a été élaboré par le Panel Européen sur l'Adéquation de l'Endoscopie Gastro-intestinale (EPAGE en version anglaise), utilisant une méthode validée (RAND). Les opinions des médecins sur le guideline, sur le site Internet et sur les perspectives d'utilisation ont été recueillies au moyen de questionnaires. Résultats : 289 patients ont été inclus dans l'étude. Le temps moyen pour consulter le site Internet a été de 1.8 min et 86% des médecins l'ont considéré comme simple à utiliser. Les recommandations ont été facilement localisées pour 82% des patients et les médecins étaient d'accord avec l'adéquation de la colonoscopie dans 86% des cas. Selon les critères EPAGE, la colonoscopie était appropriée, incertaine et inappropriée, respectivement chez 59, 28 et 13% des patients. Conclusions : Le guideline EPAGE a été considéré comme acceptable et simple à utiliser. L'utilisation, l'utilité et la pertinence du site Internet a été jugée comme acceptable. Son utilisation effective dépendra cependant de la levée de certains obstacles au niveau organisationnel et culturel.

Decision Support Methods for Global Optomization

Immobile location-allocation (LA) problems is a type of LA problem that consists in determining the service each facility should offer in order to optimize some criterion (like the global demand), given the positions of the facilities and the customers. Due to the complexity of the problem, i.e. it is a combinatorial problem (where is the number of possible services and the number of facilities) with a non-convex search space with several sub-optimums, traditional methods cannot be applied directly to optimize this problem. Thus we proposed the use of clustering analysis to convert the initial problem into several smaller sub-problems. By this way, we presented and analyzed the suitability of some clustering methods to partition the commented LA problem. Then we explored the use of some metaheuristic techniques such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing or cuckoo search in order to solve the sub-problems after the clustering analysis

Decision-support tools to manage drug incompatibilities: evaluation by nurses

Introduction Preventing drug incompatibilities has a high impact onthe safety of drug therapy. Although there are no internationalguidelines to manage drug incompatibilities, different decision-supporttools such as handbooks, cross-tables and databases are available.In a previous study, two decision-support tools have been pre-selectedby pharmacists as fitting nurses' needs on the wards1. The objective ofthis study was to have these both tools evaluated by nurses todetermine which would be the most suitable for their daily practice.Materials & Methods Evaluated tools were:1. Cross-table of drug pairs (http://files.chuv.ch/internet-docs/pha/medicaments/pha_phatab_compatibilitessip.pdf)2. Colour-table (a colour for each drug according to the pH: red =acid; blue = basic; yellow = neutral; black = to be infused alone)2Tools were assessed by 48 nurses in 5 units (PICU, adult andgeriatric intensive care, surgery, onco-hematology) using a standardizedform1. The scientific accuracy of the tools was evaluated bydetermining the compatibility of five drugs pairs (rate of correctanswers according to the Trissel's Handbook on Injectable Drugs,chi-square test). Their ergonomics, design, reliability and applicabilitywere estimated using visual analogue scales (VAS 0-10; 0 =null, 10 = excellent). Results are expressed as the median and interquartilerange (IQR) for 25% and 75% (Wilcoxon rank sum test).Results The rate of correct answers was above 90% for both tools(cross-table 96.2% vs colour-table 92.5%, p[0.05).The ergonomics and the applicability were higher for the crosstable[7.1 (IQR25 4.0, IQR75 8.0) vs 5.0 (IQR25 2.7, IQR75 7.0), p =0.025 resp. 8.3 (IQR25 7.4, IQR75 9.2) vs 7.6 (IQR25 5.9, IQR75 8.8)p = 0.047].The design of the colour-table was judged better [4.6 (IQR25 2.9,IQR75 7.1) vs 7.1 (IQR25 5.4, IQR75 8.4) p = 0.002].No difference was observed in terms of reliability [7.3 (IQR25 6.5,IQR75 8.4) vs 6.7 (IQR25 5.0, IQR758.6) p[0.05].The cross-table was globally preferred by 65% of the nurses (27%colour-table, 8% undetermined) and 68% would like to have thisdecision-support tool available for their daily practice.Discussion & Conclusion Both tools showed the same accuracy toassess drug compatibility. In terms of ergonomics and applicabilitythe cross-table was better than the colour-table, and was preferred bythe nurses for their daily practice. The cross-table will be implementedin our hospital as decision-support tool to help nurses tomanage drug incompatibilities.