Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: analysis of admissions and mortality time series

INTRODUCTION: A time series study of admissions, deaths and acute cases was conducted in order to evaluate the context of Chagas disease in Pernambuco. METHODS: Data reported to the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian National Health Service between 1980 and 2008 was collected for regions and Federal Units of Brazil; and microregions and municipalities of Pernambuco. Rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) of hospitalization, mortality and acute cases were calculated using a national hospital database (SIH), a national mortality database (SIM) and the national Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), respectively. RESULTS: The national average for Chagas disease admissions was 0.99 from 1995 to 2008. Pernambuco obtained a mean of 0.39 in the same period, with the highest rates being concentrated in the interior of the state. The state obtained a mean mortality rate of 1.56 between 1980 and 2007, which was lower than the national average (3.66). The mortality rate has tended to decline nationally, while it has remained relatively unchanged in Pernambuco. Interpolating national rates of admissions and deaths, mortality rates were higher than hospitalization rates between 1995 and 2007. The same occurred in Pernambuco, except for 2003. Between 2001 and 2006, rates for acute cases were 0.56 and 0.21 for Brazil and Pernambuco, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although a decrease in Chagas mortality has occurred in Brazil, the disease remains a serious public health problem, especially in the Northeast region. It is thus essential that medical care, prevention and control regarding Chagas disease be maintained and improved.

Active surveillance to determine the impact of methicillin resistance on mortality in patients with bacteremia and influences of the use of antibiotics on the development of MRSA infection

Introduction Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is among the most important pathogens of nosocomial infections, mainly in intensive care units (ICUs), and accounts for 40-60% of all healthcare-associated S. aureus infections. We evaluated the incidence of nosocomial infection by S. aureus, identified the risk factors for MRSA infection, and evaluated the effect of resistance to methicillin on mortality in patients. Methods We conducted MRSA surveillance at a university hospital in Brazil from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2010, and performed a retrospective case-control matched study to evaluate the frequency of subsequent MRSA bacteremia and death among patients. We evaluated and compared the risk factors between patients with MRSA and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) infection. Results Sepsis was the most common cause of infection (17.7/1,000 patient-days), followed by surgical site (11.4/1,000 patient-days), pneumonia (4.1/1,000 patient-days), and urinary tract infection (2.4/1,000 patient-days). The significant risk factors were time of hospitalization, use of central vascular catheter (CVC), urinary catheter, nasogastric tube, parenteral nutrition, tracheostomy, mechanical ventilation, and previous antibiotic administration, the latter of which was the only independent risk factor for MRSA infection. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with MRSA. The number of antibiotics tested was not related to increases in the frequency of MRSA/1,000 patient-days. The incidence of mortality attributable to MRSA (bloodstream infection) BSI was 50%. Conclusions Surveillance results showed that the use of high levels of antibiotics was directly related to the development of MRSA infection, and the mortality attributable to MRSA in patients with bacteremia was significant.

High visceral leishmaniasis mortality rate in Barra Mansa, a new area of visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Introduction Nine cases of visceral leishmaniasis occurred recently in Barra Mansa, State of Rio de Janeiro, with a high mortality rate. Methods We reviewed the medical records of the patients. Results Eight were male; 7 were adults. Patients who died progressed to death quickly and presented with aggravating factors: systemic steroid therapy before diagnosis, bleeding, severe liver involvement, infection, and/or refusal to receive transfusion. Conclusions We warn clinicians to be aware of the emergence of visceral leishmaniasis in new areas and to keep in mind the possibility of atypical clinical pictures and aggravating factors, so timely diagnosis can be made and prompt and adequate treatment can be initiated.

Trends and factors associated with dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Studies that generate information that may reduce the dengue death risk are essential. This study analyzed time trends and risk factors for dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil from 2001 to 2011.METHODS:Time trends for dengue mortality and fatality rates were analyzed using simple linear regression. Associations between the dengue mortality and the case fatality rates and socioeconomic, demographic, and health care indicators at the municipality level were analyzed using negative binomial regression.RESULTS:The dengue hemorrhagic fever case fatality rate increased in Brazil from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.67; p=0.036), in patients aged 0-14 years (β=0.48; p=0.030) and in those aged ≥15 years (β=1.1; p<0.01). Factors associated with the dengue case fatality rate were the average income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.038) and the number of basic health units per population (MRR=0.89; p<0.001). Mortality rates increased from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.350; p=0.002).Factors associated with mortality were inequality (RR=1.02; p=0.001) high income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.005), and higher proportions of populations living in urban areas (MRR=1.01; p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS:The increases in the dengue mortality and case fatality rates and the associated socioeconomic and health care factors, suggest the need for structural and intersectoral investments to improve living conditions and to sustainably reduce these outcomes.

Determinants of mortality in oncology patients colonized or infected with Staphylococcus aureus

Oxacillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (ORSA) infection is an important cause of hospital morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to identify the main factors associated with death in patients colonized or infected with Staphylococcus aureus in a cancer center. A matched-pair case-control study enrolled all patients infected or colonized with ORSA (cases) admitted to the Hospital do Câncer in Rio de Janeiro from 01/01/1992 to 12/31/1994. A control was defined as a patient hospitalized during the same period as the case-patients and colonized or infected with oxacillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (OSSA). The study enrolled 95 cases and 95 controls. Patient distribution was similar for the two groups (p > or = 0.05) with respect to gender, underlying diseases, hospital transfer, prior infection, age, temperature, heart and respiratory rates, neutrophil count, and duration of hospitalization. Univariate analysis of putative risk factors associated with mortality showed the following significant variables: admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), presence of bacteremia, use of central venous catheter (CVC), ORSA colonization or infection, pneumonia, use of urinary catheter, primary lung infection, prior use of antibiotics, mucositis, and absence of cutaneous abscesses. Multivariate analysis showed a strong association between mortality and the following independent variables: admission to ICU (OR [odds ratio]=7.2), presence of Staphylococcus bacteremia (OR=6.8), presence of CVC (OR=5.3), and isolation of ORSA (OR=2.7). The study suggests a higher virulence of ORSA in comparison to OSSA in cancer patients.

Prognostic factors influencing morbidity and mortality in esophageal carcinoma

PURPOSE: In 1980, operative mortality for esophageal resection was 29%. Over the last 15 years, technical and critical care improvements contributed to the reduction of postoperative mortality rate to 8%. The aim of this study is to analyze retrospectively the role of different factors (surgical procedure, stage of the disease, and anesthetic risk) on the postoperative mortality of 63 patients that underwent esophagectomy with gastric interposition for cancer. METHODS: Seventy-two patients underwent esophagectomy. The stomach was the esophageal substitute in 63 cases. Surgical procedures included transthoracic esophagectomy in 49 patients and transhiatal esophagectomy in 14 cases. Among the 49 transthoracic esophagectomy patients, there were 18 patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III). Among the patients that underwent transhiatal esophagectomy, there were 10 patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III). RESULTS: The operative mortality rate was 14% (2/14) in transhiatal esophagectomy group and 22% (11/49) in transthoracic esophagectomy group (P = ns). The postoperative mortality of patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III) was 47% (8/17) after transthoracic esophagectomy and 10% (1/10) after transhiatal esophagectomy (P <0.05). DISCUSSION: In our experience, the operative mortality was nearly 18% (16.6% after transhiatal esophagectomy and 20.8% after transthoracic esophagectomy). Among the patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III) that underwent surgery, the postoperative mortality was significantly lower after transhiatal esophagectomy (10%) compared to transthoracic esophagectomy (47%) (P <0.05).

Peacock bass mortality associated with catch-and-release sport fishing in the Negro River, Amazonas State, Brazil

Sport fishing for peacock bass Cichla spp. in the Brazilian Amazon has increased in popularity and attracts anglers who generate significant economic benefits in rural regions. The sustainability of this fishery is partly dependent on the survival of fish caught through catch-and-release fishing. The objective of this work was to investigate, hooking mortality of Cichla spp., including speckled peacock bass (C. temensis Humbolt), butterfly peacock bass (C. orinocensis Humbolt), and popoca peacock bass (C. monoculus Agassiz) in the basin of the Negro River, the largest tributary of the Amazon River. Fish were caught at two different sites using artificial lures, transported to pens anchored in the river and monitored for 72 hours. A total of 162 individual peacock bass were captured and hooking mortality (mean % ± 95% confidence intervals) was calculated. Mean mortality was 3.5% (± 5.0), 2.3% (± 3.5) and 5.2% (± 10.2) for speckled peacock bass, butterfly peacock bass, and popoca peacock bass, respectively. Lengths of captured fish ranged from 26 to 79 cm (standard length), however, only fish under 42 cm died. This research suggests that catch-and-release sport fishing of peacock bass does not result in substantial mortality in the Negro River basin.

Difference in the in-hospital mortality of unstable angina pectoris between men and women

PURPOSE: To assess differences in the in-hospital mortality (HM) rate between men and women with unstable angina pectoris (UA) according to age, depression of the ST segment, history of previous acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and risk factors for coronary heart disease. METHODS: From October 96 to March 98, 261 patients with UA were selected. Logistic regression models were developed to adjust the association between sex and HM for possible influence of covariables, such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, sedentary lifestyle, smoking, and familial history of early coronary heart disease. RESULTS: HM due to UA was approximately three times higher in women (9.3%; 12/129) than in men (3.0%; 4/132) accounting for a relative risk of 3.07; 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.02-9.27. In logistic regression models, the association between sex and death was not significantly altered when the following parameters were considered: age, depression of the ST segment, history of previous AMI and risk factors for coronary heart disease. The nonadjusted and adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the distinct covariables were 3.28 (CI 95%=1.03-10.45) and 3.14 (CI = 95% = 0.88-11.20), respectively. CONCLUSION: Similarly to AMI, HM in UA is higher in women than in men. Age, risk factors for coronary heart disease, and depression of the ST segment in the electrocardiogram on patients' admission to the hospital did not significantly influence the association between sex and death.

Mortality attributed to myocardial infarction in the male and female population of Salvador, BA, between 1981 and 1996

OBJECTIVE: To describe according to gender the trend in mortality attributed to myocardial infarction (MI) in the population of Salvador, Bahia between 1981 and 1996. METHODS: This study was on mortality due to MI estimates by period and gender of the city of Salvador, Bahia. Data from 1981 to 1996 were stratified by quadrienia, and the percentage reduction in death rate due to MI relative to the preceding period (PRR) was determined. Comparisons between genders were expressed by the male/female death ratio (DR) based on the gender-related PPR. RESULTS: An overall increase of approximately 8% was observed in the death rate attributed to MI for the period 1985-1988 (89.2/10 5 individuals / year) versus the period 1981-1984 (82.1/10(5)/ year). In the subsequent periods, overall reductions of 10% and 20.3% were observed for the periods 1989-1992 and 1993-1996, respectively. For men, the PPRs were 11.1 in the period 1989-1992 and 22.7% in the period 1993-1996. The PPRs in women were lower: 8.6% and 17.4% between 1989 and 1992, and 1993 and 1996, respectively. Death rate reduction was greater for men than women, then the male/female DR decreased from 1.66 in 1981-1984 to 1.35 in 1993-1996. CONCLUSION: The results indicate a trend towards a reduction in the death rate attributed to myocardial infarction in the city of Salvador from the second half of the 1980s onwards, striking in men.

Trends in mortality due to ischemic heart disease in the municipality of Goiania, Brazil, during the years between 1980 and 1994

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends of specific, standardized coefficients of mortality due to ischemic heart disease according to sex and age during the years 1980 and 1994 in the municipality of Goiania, GO, Brazil. METHODS: Data on deaths were retrieved from the Information on Mortality System of the Ministry of Health; population data were obtained from the Foundation of the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The trends of the specific coefficients were analyzed by triennia of the historical series, including individuals of both sexes from 25 years of age on, partitioned into 6 age groups of ten years intervals. The population data corresponding to the year 1980 were used as the standard for the calculation of each age group coefficient. Analyses were carried out by straight linear regression. RESULTS: Coefficients were greater for males in each triennium of the series and increased with age in both sexes. The study of the trends of the specific age coefficients of both sexes revealed a stable pattern of evolution up to the age of 65-74 years (P>0.05). From 75 years on, a clear-cut decline in mortality due to ischemic heart disease was shown by both sexes. The standardized coefficients also showed a significant decline (p<=0.05). CONCLUSION: The municipality of Goiânia is at present in a stage of epidemiological transition similar to that of developed countries, even though the observed decline is predominantly influenced by the mortality of older individuals (75 years of age or older).

Myocardial revascularization with coronary endarterectomy. Stratification of risk factors for early mortality

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk factors for mortality related to myocardial revascularization when performed in association with coronary endarterectomy. METHODS: We assessed retrospectively 353 patients who underwent 373 coronary endarterectomies between January '89 and November '98, representing 3.73% of the myocardial revascularizations in this period of time. The arteries involved were as follows: right coronary artery in 218 patients (58.45%); left anterior descending in 102 patients (27.35%); circumflex artery in 39 patients (10.46%); and diagonal artery in 14 patients (3.74%). We used 320 (85.79%) venous grafts and 53 (14.21%) arterial grafts. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality among our patients was 9.3% as compared with 5.7% in patients with myocardial revascularizations without endarterectomy (p=0.003). Cause of death was related to acute myocardial infarction in 18 (54.55%) patients. The most significant risk factors for mortality identified were as follows: diabetes mellitus (p=0.001; odds ratio =7.168), left main disease (<0.001; 9.283), female sex (0.01; 3.111), acute myocardial infarction (0.02; 3.546), ejection fraction <35% (<0.001; 5.89), and previous myocardial revascularization (<0.001; 4.295). CONCLUSION: Coronary endarterectomy is related to higher mortality, and the risk factors involved are important elements of a poor outcome.

Mortality due to cardiovascular disease in women during the reproductive age (15 to 49 years), in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1991 to 1995

OBJECTIVE: To describe mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in women during the reproductive age (15 to 49 years) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1991 to 1995. METHODS: A list of all deaths and their underlying causes, coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, multiple causes of death, and estimates of the female population according to age groups were provided by the SEADE Foundation. Specific coefficients for 100 thousand women for each year as well as the medians of these coefficients related to 5 years, and the percentage of death by subgroups were calculated. RESULTS: Cerebrovascular diseases have the highest coefficients (14.24 for 100 thousand females), followed by ischemic heart disease (7.37), other heart diseases (6.39), hypertensive disease (3.03), chronic rheumatic heart disease (1.58), pulmonary vascular diseases (1.29), and active rheumatic fever (0.05). Systemic arterial hypertension, as an associated cause, occurred in 55.3% to 57.8% of all the deaths due to intracerebral hemorrhage and in 30.4% to 30.8% due to subarachnoid hemorrhage. CONCLUSION: The significance of cerebrovascular diseases, coronary artery disease, and systemic arterial hypertension as causes of mortality suggests the need to emphasize preventive actions for young women who have the potential to reproduce to avoid possible complications in future pregnancies, and premature mortality.

Is female sex an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether female sex is a factor independently related to in-hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction. METHODS: Of 600 consecutive patients (435 males and 165 females) with acute myocardial infarction, we studied 13 demographic and clinical variables obtained at the time of hospital admission through uni- and multivariate analysis, and analyzed their relation to in-hospital death. RESULTS: Females were older (p<0.001) and had a higher incidence of hypertension (p<0.001). Males were more frequently smokers (p<0.001). The remaining risk factors had a similar incidence among both sexes. All variables underwent uni- and multivariate analysis. Through univariate analysis, the following variables were found to be associated with in-hospital death: female sex (p<0.001), age >70 years (p<0.001), the presence of previous coronary artery disease (p=0.0004), previous myocardial infarction (p<0.001), infarction in the anterior wall (p=0.007), presence of left ventricular dysfunction (p<0.001), and the absence of thrombolytic therapy (p=0.04). Through the multivariate analysis of logistic regression, the following variables were associated with in-hospital mortality: female sex (p=0.001), age (p=0.008), the presence of previous myocardial infarction (p=0.02), and left ventricular dysfunction (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: After adjusting for all risk variables, female sex proved to be a variable independently related to in-hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction.