Evaluating the impacts of iteration on PD processes by transforming task network models into System Dynamics models

Iteration is unavoidable in the design process and should be incorporated when planning and managing projects in order to minimize surprises and reduce schedule distortions. However, planning and managing iteration is challenging because the relationships between its causes and effects are complex. Most approaches which use mathematical models to analyze the impact of iteration on the design process focus on a relatively small number of its causes and effects. Therefore, insights derived from these analytical models may not be robust under a broader consideration of potential influencing factors. In this article, we synthesize an explanatory framework which describes the network of causes and effects of iteration identified from the literature, and introduce an analytic approach which combines a task network modeling approach with System Dynamics simulation. Our approach models the network of causes and effects of iteration alongside the process architecture which is required to analyze the impact of iteration on design process performance. We show how this allows managers to assess the impact of changes to process architecture and to management levers which influence iterative behavior, accounting for the fact that these changes can occur simultaneously and can accumulate in non-linear ways. We also discuss how the insights resulting from this analysis can be visualized for easier consumption by project participants not familiar with simulation methods. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.

Effects of Boundary Layer Ingestion on the Aero-Acoustics of Transonic Fan Rotors

The use of boundary-layer-ingesting, embedded propulsion systems can result in inlet flow distortions where the interaction of the boundary layer vorticity and the inlet lip causes horseshoe vortex formation and the ingestion of streamwise vortices into the inlet. A previously-developed body-force-based fan modeling approach was used to assess the change in fan rotor shock noise generation and propagation in a boundary-layer-ingesting, serpentine inlet. This approach is employed here in a parametric study to assess the effects of inlet geometry parameters (offset-to-diameter ratio and downstream-to-upstream area ratio) on flow distortion and rotor shock noise. Mechanisms related to the vortical inlet structures were found to govern changes in the rotor shock noise generation and propagation. The vortex whose circulation is in the opposite direction to the fan rotation (counter-swirling vortex) increases incidence angles on the fan blades near the tip, enhancing noise generation. The vortex with circulation in the direction of fan rotation (co-swirling vortex) creates a region of subsonic relative flow near the blade tip radius which decreases the sound power propagated to the far-field. The parametric study revealed that the overall sound power level at the fan leading edge is set by the ingested streamwise circulation, and that for inlet designs in which the streamwise vortices are displaced away from the duct wall, the sound power at the upstream inlet plane increased by as much as 9 dB. By comparing the far-field noise results obtained to those for a conventional inlet, it is deduced that the changes in rotor shock noise are predominantly due to the ingestion of streamwise vorticity.

Effects of Boundary Layer Ingestion on the Aero-Acoustics of Transonic Fan Rotors

The use of boundary-layer-ingesting, embedded propulsion systems can result in inlet flow distortions where the interaction of the boundary layer vorticity and the inlet lip causes horseshoe vortex formation and the ingestion of streamwise vortices into the inlet. A previously-developed body-force-based fan modeling approach was used to assess the change in fan rotor shock noise generation and propagation in a boundary-layer-ingesting, serpentine inlet. This approach is employed here in a parametric study to assess the effects of inlet geometry parameters (offset-to-diameter ratio and downstream-to-upstream area ratio) on flow distortion and rotor shock noise. Mechanisms related to the vortical inlet structures were found to govern changes in the rotor shock noise generation and propagation. The vortex whose circulation is in the opposite direction to the fan rotation (counter-swirling vortex) increases incidence angles on the fan blades near the tip, enhancing noise generation. The vortex with circulation in the direction of fan rotation (co-swirling vortex) creates a region of subsonic relative flow near the blade tip radius which decreases the sound power propagated to the far-field. The parametric study revealed that the overall sound power level at the fan leading edge is set by the ingested streamwise circulation, and that for inlet designs in which the streamwise vortices are displaced away from the duct wall, the sound power at the upstream inlet plane increased by as much as 9 dB. By comparing the far-field noise results obtained to those for a conventional inlet, it is deduced that the changes in rotor shock noise are predominantly due to the ingestion of streamwise vorticity.

A novel MPT noise prediction methodology for highly-integrated propulsion systems with inlet flow distortion

Embedded propulsion systems, such as for example used in advanced hybrid-wing body aircraft, can potentially offer major fuel burn and noise reduction benefits but introduce challenges in the aerodynamic and acoustic integration of the high-bypass ratio fan system. A novel approach is proposed to quantify the effects of non-uniform flow on the generation and propagation of multiple pure tone noise (MPTs). The new method is validated on a conventional inlet geometry first. The ultimate goal is to conduct a parametric study of S-duct inlets in order to quantify the effects of inlet design parameters on the acoustic signature. The key challenge is that the mechanism underlying the distortion transfer, noise source generation and propagation through the non-uniform flow field are inherently coupled such that a simultaneous computation of the aerodynamics and acoustics is required. The technical approach is based on a body force description of the fan blade row that is able to capture the distortion transfer and the MPT noise generation mechanisms while greatly reducing computational cost. A single, 3-D full-wheel unsteady CFD simulation, in which the Euler equations are solved to second-order spatial and temporal accuracy, simultaneously computes the MPT noise generation and its propagation in distorted mean flow. Several numerical tools were developed to enable the implementation of this new approach. Parametric studies were conducted to determine appropriate grid and time step sizes for the propagation of acoustic waves. The Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings integral method is used to propagate the noise to far field receivers. Non-reflecting boundary conditions are implemented through the use of acoustic buffer zones. The body force modeling approach is validated and proof-of-concept studies demonstrate the generation of disturbances at both blade-passing and shaft-order frequencies using the perturbed body force method. The full methodology is currently being validated using NASA's Source Diagnostic Test (SDT) fan and inlet geometry. Copyright © 2009 by Jeff Defoe, Alex Narkaj & Zoltan Spakovszky.

Base isolated buildings

Appropriate models are essential for guiding the effective design of base-isolated buildings. While simple models suggest some guiding principles, these are often too simple for making any useful predictions of isolation performance. A modeling approach by which predictions of isolation performance may be made is proposed, along with suggestions of how this may be implemented in practice. Use of the approach can lead to better predictions of isolation performance and more effective designs.

Hybrid-electric propulsion for aircraft

Against a background of increasing energy demand and rising fuel prices, hybrid-electric propulsion systems (HEPS) have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption in the aviation industry, particularly in the lighter sectors. By taking advantage of both Electric Motor (EM) and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), HEPS provide not only a benefit in fuel saving but also a reduction in take-off noise and the emission levels. This research considers the design and sizing process of a hybrid-electric propulsion system for a single-seat demonstrator aircraft, the experimental derivation of the ICE map and the EM parameters. In addition to the experimental data, a novel modeling approach including several linked desktop PC software packages is presented to analyze and optimize hybrid-electric technology for aircraft. Further to the analysis of a parallel hybrid-electric, mid-scale aircraft, this paper also presents a scaling approach for a 20 kg UAV and a 50 tonne inter-city airliner. At the smaller scale, two different mission profiles are analyzed: an ISR mission profile, where the simulation routine optimizes the component size of the hybrid-electric propulsion system with respect to fuel saving, and a maximum duration profile; where the flight endurance is determined as a function of payload weight. At the larger scale, the performance of a 50 tonne inter-city airliner is modeled, based on a hybrid-electric gas-turbine, assuming a range of electric boost powers and battery masses.

蛇形机器人行波运动的研究

对蛇形机器人的行波运动机理进行了研究,基于Serpenoid曲线建立了蛇形机器人行波运动的形状控制模型、运动学模型、机构动力学模型及环境动力学模型,给出了求解过程。仿真结果表明:在行波运动中,各关节输入力矩大小呈周期变化,且随其与蛇体重心距离的增加而减小。蛇体中心关节的最大输入力矩为蛇形机器人所需最大输入力矩。对称关节输入力矩幅值变化规律相同,但相差不同;运动初始弯角保持不变,关节输入力矩随着环境摩擦因数的增加而增加。环境摩擦因数保持不变,关节输入力矩随着初始弯角的增加而减小。

典型人类活动对边坡变形及稳定性的影响研究

China is a mountainous country in which geological hazards occurred frequently, especially in the east of China. Except the geology, topography and extreme climate, the large scale human activities have become a major factor to landslides. Typical human activities which induced landslides are fill, cut and underground mining. On the topic of the deformation mechanism and slope stability, taking three different man-made slopes as examples, deformation mechanism and slope stability were studied by several methods, such as field work, numerical modeling and monitor. The details are as following: (1) The numerical modeling approach advantages over other conventional methods such as limit methods, so the numerical modeling is the major tool in this thesis. So far, there is no uniform failure criterion for numerical simulation. The failure criterion were summarized and analyzed firstly, subsequently the appropriate criterion was determinated. (2) Taking 220kV Yanjin transformation substation fill slope as example, the deformable characteristic, unstable mode and laboratory tests were studied systematically. The results show: the slope deformation was probably caused by a combination effect of unfavorable topographic, geological and hydro geological conditions, and external loading due to filling. It was concluded that the creep deformation of the slope was triggered by external loading applied at the back of the slope. In order to define the calculating parameters, a set of consolidated drained (CD) tests, consolidated undrained (CU) tests, repeated direct shear tests and UCS tests were carried out. The stability of the slope before and after reinforcement was assessed using 3D numerical modeling and shear strength reduction technique. The numerical modeling results showed: the factor of safety (FOS) of the slope was 1.10 in the natural state, and reduced to 1.03 after fill, which was close to the critical state and it caused creeping slip or deformation under rainfall. The failure surface in the slope is in active shear failure, whereas tensile failure occurs at the slope crest. After the site was reinforced with piles, the FOS was 1.27. Therefore, the slope is stable after reinforcement measures were taken. (3) The cut slope stability is a complex problem. Taking the left cut slope of Xiangjiaba as example in this thesis, the deformation and slope stability were studied systematically by numerical modeling and monitor methods. The numerical results show: the displacement is gradually increasing along with the cutting, and the largest displacement is 27.5mm which located at the bench between the elevation 340 and 380. Some failure state units distribute near the undermining part and there is no linked failure state occurred from crest to bottom during cutting. After cutting, some failure units appeared at the ground surface between elevation 340 and 360. The increasing tense stress made the disturbed rock failed. The slope is stable after cutting by the monitor method, such as surface monitor, multipoint displacement meter, inclinometer and anchor cable tensometer. (4) The interaction between underground mining and slope stability is a common situation in mountainous. The slope deformation mechanism induced by underground mining may contributed significantly to slope destabilization. The Mabukan slope in xiangjiaba was analyzed to illustrate this. Failure mechanism and the slope stability were presented by numerical modeling and residual deformation monitor. The results show: the roof deformed to the free face and the floor uplift lightly to the free face. The subsidence basin is formed, but the subsidence and the horizontal movement is small, and there is no failure zone occurred. When the underground mining is going on, the roof deformation, subsidence and the horizontal movements begin increasing. The rock deformation near the free face is larger than the ground surface, and the interaction between these coal seams appeared. There are some tensile failures and shear failures occurred on the roof and floor, and a majority of failure is tensile failure. The roof deformation, subsidence and the horizontal movements increased obviously along with the underground mining. The failure characteristic is shear failure which means the tensile stress transformed to the compressive stress. So the underground mining will induced tensile stress first which lead to structure crack, subsequently the compressive stress appeared which result in slippage. The crest was subjected to horizontal tension which made the rock crack along with the joint. The long term residual deformation monitor demonstrates that the slope is stable after the underground mining stopped.

柴达木盆地北缘地区油气成藏过程模拟与含油气系统评价

As an important part of petroleum exploration areas in the west of China, the north part of Qaidam basin is very promising in making great progress for petroleum discovery. But there are still many obstacles to overcome in understanding the process of petroleum formation and evaluation of oil & gas potential because of the complexity of geological evolution in the study area. Based upon the petroleum system theory, the process of petroleum formation is analyzed and the potential of oil & gas is evaluated in different petroleum systems by means of the modeling approach. The geological background for the formation of petroleum systems and the consisting elements of petroleum systems are described in detail. The thickness of strata eroded is estimated by means of vitrinite reflectance modeling, compaction parameter calculating and thickness extrapolating. The buried histories are reconstructed using the transient compaction model, which combines of forward and reverse modeling. The geo-history evolution consists of four stages - sedimentation in different rates with different areas and slow subsidence during Jurassic, uplifting and erosion during Cretaceous, fast subsidence during the early and middle periods of Tertiary, subsidence and uplifting in alternation during the late period of Tertiary and Quaternary. The thermal gradients in the study area are from 2.0 ℃/100m to 2.6 ℃/100m, and the average of heat flow is 50.6 mW/m~2. From the vitrinite reflectance and apatite fission track data, a new approach based up Adaptive Genetic Algorithms for thermal history reconstruction is presented and used to estimate the plaeo-heat flow. The results of modeling show that the heat flow decreased and the basin got cooler from Jurassic to now. Oil generation from kerogens, gas generation from kerogens and gas cracked from oil are modeled by kinetic models. The kinetic parameters are calculated from the data obtained from laboratory experiments. The evolution of source rock maturation is modeled by means of Easy %Ro method. With the reconstruction of geo-histories and thermal histories and hydrocarbon generation, the oil and gas generation intensities for lower and middle Jurassic source rocks in different time are calculated. The results suggest that the source rocks got into maturation during the time of Xiaganchaigou sedimentation. The oil & gas generation centers for lower Jurassic source rocks locate in Yikeyawuru sag, Kunteyi sag and Eboliang area. The centers of generation for middle Jurassic source rocks locate in Saishenteng faulted sag and Yuka faulted sag. With the evidence of bio-markers and isotopes of carbonates, the oil or gas in Lenghusihao, Lenghuwuhao, Nanbaxian and Mahai oilfields is from lower Jurassic source rocks, and the oil or gas in Yuka is from middle Jurassic source rocks. Based up the results of the modeling, the distribution of source rocks and occurrence of oil and gas, there should be two petroleum systems in the study area. The key moments for these two petroleum, J_1-R(!) and J_2-J_3, are at the stages of Xiaganchaigou-Shangyoushashan sedimentation and Xiayoushashan-Shizigou sedimentation. With the kinetic midels for oil generated from kerogen, gas generated from kerogen and oil cracked to gas, the amount of oil and gas generated at different time in the two petroleum systems is calculated. The cumulative amount of oil generated from kerogen, gas generated from kerogen and gas cracked from oil is 409.78 * 10~8t, 360518.40 * 10~8m~3, and 186.50 * 10~8t in J_1-R(!). The amount of oil and gas generated for accumulation is 223.28 * 10~8t and 606692.99 * 10~8m~3 in J_1-R(!). The cumulative amount of oil generated from kerogen, gas generated from kerogen and gas cracked from oil is 29.05 * 10~8t, 23025.29 * 10~8m~3 and 14.42 * 10~8t in J_2-J_3 (!). The amount of oil and gas generated for accumulation is 14.63 * 10~8t and 42055.44 * 10~8m~3 in J_2-J_3 (!). The total oil and gas potential is 9.52 * 10~8t and 1946.25 * 10~8m~3.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

In Silico Prediction of the Mechanobiological Response of Arterial Tissue: Application to Angioplasty and Stenting

One way to restore physiological blood flow to occluded arteries involves the deformation of plaque using an intravascular balloon and preventing elastic recoil using a stent. Angioplasty and stent implantation cause unphysiological loading of the arterial tissue, which may lead to tissue in-growth and reblockage; termed “restenosis.” In this paper, a computational methodology for predicting the time-course of restenosis is presented. Stress-induced damage, computed using a remaining life approach, stimulates inflammation (production of matrix degrading factors and growth stimuli). This, in turn, induces a change in smooth muscle cell phenotype from contractile (as exists in the quiescent tissue) to synthetic (as exists in the growing tissue). In this paper, smooth muscle cell activity (migration, proliferation, and differentiation) is simulated in a lattice using a stochastic approach to model individual cell activity. The inflammation equations are examined under simplified loading cases. The mechanobiological parameters of the model were estimated by calibrating the model response to the results of a balloon angioplasty study in humans. The simulation method was then used to simulate restenosis in a two dimensional model of a stented artery. Cell activity predictions were similar to those observed during neointimal hyperplasia, culminating in the growth of restenosis. Similar to experiment, the amount of neointima produced increased with the degree of expansion of the stent, and this relationship was found to be highly dependant on the prescribed inflammatory response. It was found that the duration of inflammation affected the amount of restenosis produced, and that this effect was most pronounced with large stent expansions. In conclusion, the paper shows that the arterial tissue response to mechanical stimulation can be predicted using a stochastic cell modeling approach, and that the simulation captures features of restenosis development observed with real stents. The modeling approach is proposed for application in three dimensional models of cardiovascular stenting procedures.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Optimization strategy for minimizing damage in postbuckling stiffened panels

Composite materials are finding increasing use on primary aerostructures to meet demanding performance targets while reducing environmental impact. This paper presents a finite-element-based preliminary optimization methodology for postbuckling stiffened panels, which takes into account damage mechanisms that lead to delamination and subsequent failure by stiffener debonding. A global-local modeling approach is adopted in which the boundary conditions on the local model are extracted directly from the global model. The optimization procedure is based on a genetic algorithm that maximizes damage resistance within the postbuckling regime. This routine is linked to a finite element package and the iterative procedure automated. For a given loading condition, the procedure optimized the stacking sequence of several areas of the panel, leading to an evolved panel that displayed superior damage resistance in comparison with nonoptimized designs.