Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Queensland The Cotton Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is often perceived as a solution to changes in water availability that have occurred within southern Australia as a result of changes to government policy in response to and exacerbated by climate change. This report examines the likely private, social and community costs and benefits associated with the establishment of a cotton industry in the Burdekin. The research undertaken covers three spatial scales by modelling the response of cotton and to climate change at the crop and farm scale and linking this to regional scale modelling of the economy. Modelling crop growth as either a standalone crop or as part of a farm enterprise provides the clearest picture of how yields and water use will be affected under climate change. The alternative to this is to undertake very costly trials in environmental chambers. For this reason it is critical that funding for model development especially for crops being crop in novel environments be seen as a high priority for climate change and adaptation studies. Crop level simulations not only provide information on how the crop responds to climate change, they also illustrate that that these responses are the result of complex interactions and cannot necessarily be derived from the climate information alone. These simulations showed that climate change would lead to decreased cotton yields in 2030 and 2050 without the affect of CO2 fertilisation. Without CO2 fertilisation, yields would be decreased by 3.2% and 17.8%. Including CO2 fertilisation increased yields initially by 5.9%, but these were reduced by 3.6% in 2050. This still represents a major offset and at least ameliorates the impact of climate change on yield. To cope with the decreased in-crop rainfall (4.5% by 2030 and 15.8% in 2050) and an initial increase in evapotranspiration of 2% in 2030 and

A design approach to innovation in the Australian energy industry

Electricity businesses across Australia are facing many market disruptions, such as the increasing demand from the rapid uptake of domestic air conditioners and the contrasting problematic generation from solar power connections to the grid. In this context, the opportunity to proactively leverage forthcoming technological advances in battery storage and electric vehicles to address the steeply rising cost of electricity supply has emerged. This research explores a design approach to support a business to navigate such disruptions in the current market.This study examines a design-led approach to innovation conducted over a ten month action research study within a large, risk-averse firm in the Australian energy sector. This article presents results describing a current foresight gap within the business; the response of the business to using design-led innovation to address this issue; and the tools, approaches and processes used. The business responses indicate their perception of the value of qualitative customer engagement as a path to addressing, and potentially benefiting from, disruptive innovation. It is anticipated that these results will further business model development within the company, and assist in leveraging disruptive innovations for this industry participant, thus limiting future increases in the cost of electricity supply for customers in Australia.

Time dependent deformations in concrete: A multi-scale approach

Estimation of creep and shrinkage are critical in order to compute loss of prestress with time in order to compute leak tightness and assess safety margins available in containment structures of nuclear power plants. Short-term creep and shrinkage experiments have been conducted using in-house test facilities developed specifically for the present research program on 35 and 45 MPa normal concrete and 25 MPa heavy density concrete. The extensive experimental program for creep, has cylinders subject to sustained levels of load typically for several days duration (till negligible strain increase with time is observed in the creep specimen), to provide the total creep strain versus time curves for the two normal density concrete grades and one heavy density concrete grade at different load levels, different ages at loading, and at different relative humidity’s. Shrinkage studies on prism specimen for concrete of the same mix grades are also being studied. In the first instance, creep and shrinkage prediction models reported in the literature has been used to predict the creep and shrinkage levels in subsequent experimental data with acceptable accuracy. While macro-scale short experiments and analytical model development to estimate time dependent deformation under sustained loads over long term, accounting for the composite rheology through the influence of parameters such as the characteristic strength, age of concrete at loading, relative humidity, temperature, mix proportion (cement: fine aggregate: coarse aggregate: water) and volume to surface ratio and the associated uncertainties in these variables form one part of the study, it is widely believed that strength, early age rheology, creep and shrinkage are affected by the material properties at the nano-scale that are not well established. In order to understand and improve cement and concrete properties, investigation of the nanostructure of the composite and how it relates to the local mechanical properties is being undertaken. While results of creep and shrinkage obtained at macro-scale and their predictions through rheological modeling are satisfactory, the nano and micro indenting experimental and analytical studies are presently underway. Computational mechanics based models for creep and shrinkage in concrete must necessarily account for numerous parameters that impact their short and long term response. A Kelvin type model with several elements representing the influence of various factors that impact the behaviour is under development. The immediate short term deformation (elastic response), effects of relative humidity and temperature, volume to surface ratio, water cement ratio and aggregate cement ratio, load levels and age of concrete at loading are parameters accounted for in this model. Inputs to this model, such as the pore structure and mechanical properties at micro/nano scale have been taken from scanning electron microscopy and micro/nano-indenting of the sample specimen.

Device oriented statistical modeling method for process variability in 45nm analog CMOS technology

With the rapid scaling down of the semiconductor process technology, the process variation aware circuit design has become essential today. Several statistical models have been proposed to deal with the process variation. We propose an accurate BSIM model for handling variability in 45nm CMOS technology. The MOSFET is designed to meet the specification of low standby power technology of International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS).The process parameters variation of annealing temperature, oxide thickness, halo dose and title angle of halo implant are considered for the model development. One parameter variation at a time is considered for developing the model. The model validation is done by performance matching with device simulation results and reported error is less than 10%.© (2012) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

A complexidade da dinâmica socioambiental em território insular: desafio ao planejamento - Ilha Grande, Angra dos Reis (RJ)

A Ilha Grande situa-se na chamada Costa Verde do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, tem a totalidade de seu território protegido legalmente e vem sendo alvo de especuladores e investidores cujos interesses são, principalmente, explorar o potencial natural do bioma de Mata Atlântica. Observa-se um processo de transformação local em diversos aspectos que englobam o meio ambiente e a sociedade, como a degradação ambiental e o deslocamento da comunidade tradicional. O Poder Público manteve-se distante ou mesmo ausente por décadas, o que possibilitou a instalação de problemas ambientais e a configuração de conflitos na esfera do planejamento e gestão. Considerando-se a relevância socioambiental deste território insular e, em especial, com a implantação do Centro de Estudos Ambientais e Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CEADS) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) na Enseada de Dois Rios, o presente estudo tem como objetivo identificar a dinâmica ambiental estabelecida na ilha. Os aspectos relacionados ao uso e ocupação do solo e à fragilidade ambiental são fundamentais para a análise integrada, para a compreensão da configuração atual do território e para a formulação de diretrizes de desenvolvimento adequadas à complexa realidade da Ilha Grande, cuja atividade econômica está pautada no turismo. Identificou-se como as principais causas dos problemas ambientais e dos conflitos de gestão: o caótico ordenamento do território, a falta de infraestrutura de serviços, a dificuldade de mobilização social, a falta de integração entre as políticas públicas e competências administrativas, a precariedade da fiscalização, a impunidade aos que não cumpriram a normatização em vigor e, a não observância da fragilidade ambiental do geossistema Ilha Grande.

A implantação da Coleta Seletiva Solidária em uma empresa pública de administração indireta de caldeiraria pesada do estado do Rio de Janeiro.

A crescente geração de resíduos e desperdício das repartições públicas, os custos de seu manejo e a necessidade de inclusão social dos catadores foram os propulsores para o modelo de Gerenciamento de Resíduos Sólidos Recicláveis (MGRSR) desenvolvido, visando à implementação da Coleta Seletiva Solidária em empresas e indústrias públicas. As perguntas que nortearam o desenvolvimento deste trabalho foram: Como o programa de coleta seletiva solidária impacta a gestão de uma empresa? Há dificuldades para o cumprimento do Decreto 5940/06? O MGRSR teve como base o modelo do PDCA (NBR 14001:2004), o Manual de Gerenciamento de Resíduos da FIRJAN, além dos requisitos legais que regulamentam o Gerenciamento de Resíduos e a Coleta Seletiva Solidária no Brasil. Foi adotado, como metodologia, o Estudo de caso em uma fábrica pública de Caldeiraria Pesada, por suas características de produção e grande geração de sucatas metálicas e o uso de mapas conceituais, desenvolvidos por meio da ferramenta IHMC Cmap Tools v.05.04.01. Os principais resultados da aplicação do modelo foram: elaboração de procedimentos internos; otimização da segregação dos resíduos com diminuição do percentual de resíduos perigosos gerados e aumento da taxa de reciclagem; sensibilização ambiental e a formalização de termos de doação com cooperativas/associações no período de 2009 a 2011. Porém, foram entraves: a ausência de área adequada ao armazenamento e triagem dos resíduos, de um sistema adequado de logística, de licenças dos galpões das cooperativas, a resistência à doação dos recicláveis, uma vez que a renda obtida com a sua venda estimada em R$300 mil reais/ano, deixaria de compor o orçamento da empresa e o fato do pesquisador ser também um dos atores no processo de implantação do programa. Recomendações foram feitas em análise crítica ao modelo sugerido: incluir na fase de planejamento a elaboração de projetos socioambientais às Cooperativas e a aprovação de verba específica para o Programa de Coleta Seletiva Solidária; criar programa de redução de resíduos; criar relatório para ser enviado ao Comitê Interministerial de Inclusão Social dos Catadores de Materiais Recicláveis e ao INEA/Gerência de Educação Ambiental com as sugestões de alteração do Decreto n 5940/06 e dos relatórios semestrais; e verificar a possibilidade de replicação do modelo MGRSR em outras organizações. Na conclusão, identificou-se que o MGRSR foi aplicável à empresa objeto de estudo e que o Programa de Coleta Seletiva Solidária permite sensibilização ambiental dos atores sociais envolvidos; inclusão social, melhoria da imagem da empresa, redução de resíduos gerados e desperdícios traduzidos em economia a médio e longo prazo, melhoria das articulações entre as diversas organizações públicas; aumento de trabalho e renda com melhoria das condições de saúde e trabalho do catador.

Modelagem da Dinâmica do Sistema de Controle de Lastro de uma Plataforma Semisubmersível.

É descrita a modelagem, para controle, da dinâmica de uma plataforma semisubmersível com seis graus de liberdade. O modelo inclui os efeitos dos tanques de lastro como forças e momentos, assim como a dinâmica da plataforma. Os parâmetros do sistema foram obtidos das características da plataforma e de resultados experimentais obtidos com uma plataforma semisubmersível de dimensões reduzidas. O desenvolvimento de uma metodologia e de um software capazes de determinar o volume submerso e o centro de empuxo de uma estrutura com geometria complexa foram pontos determinantes nessa Dissertação, tendo em vista a complexidade do processo e as importâncias desses parâmetros para o desenvolvimento do modelo. A linearização do modelo permitiu a elaboração de uma estratégia de controle capaz de estabilizar a plataforma mesmo em condições iniciais distantes do equilíbrio. As equações que descrevem o movimento da plataforma nos graus de liberdade vertical, jogo e arfagem foram desenvolvidas. A realocação dos polos e um observador de estado foram utilizados com o objetivo de melhorar o controle do sistema.

Inverse induction motor modelling of a submarine propulsion system

An inherent trade-off exists in simulation model development and employment: a trade-off between the level of detail simulated and the simulation models computational cost. It is often desirable to simulate a high level of detail to a high degree of accuracy. However, due to the nature of design optimisation, which requires a large number of design evaluations, the application of such simulation models can be prohibitively expensive. A induction motor modelling approache to reduce the computational cost while maintaining a high level of detail and accuracy in the final design is presented. © 2012 IEEE.

Determination of ethenzamide and acetoaminophen in quaternary powdered samples by near infrared spectroscopy and searching combination moving window partial least squares algorithm: effects of spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio

The present study reports an application of the searching combination moving window partial least squares (SCMWPLS) algorithm to the determination of ethenzamide and acetoaminophen in quaternary powdered samples by near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Another purpose of the study was to examine the instrumentation effects of spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio of the Buchi NIRLab N-200 FT-NIR spectrometer equipped with an InGaAs detector. The informative spectral intervals of NIR spectra of a series of quaternary powdered mixture samples were first located for ethenzamide and acetoaminophen by use of moving window partial least squares regression (MWPLSR). Then, these located spectral intervals were further optimised by SCMWPLS for subsequent partial least squares (PLS) model development. The improved results are attributed to both the less complex PLS models and to higher accuracy of predicted concentrations of ethenzamide and acetoaminophen in the optimised informative spectral intervals that are featured by NIR bands. At the same time, SCMWPLS is also demonstrated as a viable route for wavelength selection.

Modelling pedestrian escalator behaviour

This paper presents an escalator model for use in circulation and evacuation analysis. As part of the model development, human factors data was collected from a Spanish underground station. The collected data relates to: escalator/stair choice, rider/walker preference, rider side preference, walker travel speeds and escalator flow rates. The dataset provides insight into pedestrian behaviour in utilising escalators and is a useful resource for both circulation and evacuation models. Based on insight derived from the dataset a detailed microscopic escalator model which incorporates person-person interactions has been developed. A range of demonstration evacuation scenarios are presented using the newly developed microscopic escalator model.

Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Placing biodiversity in ecosystem models without getting lost in translation

A key challenge to progressing our understanding of biodiversity’s role in the sustenance of ecosystem function is the extrapolation of the results of two decades of dedicated empirical research to regional, global and future landscapes. Ecosystem models provide a platform for this progression, potentially offering a holistic view of ecosystems where, guided by the mechanistic understanding of processes and their connection to the environment and biota, large-scale questions can be investigated. While the benefits of depicting biodiversity in such models are widely recognized, its application is limited by difficulties in the transfer of knowledge from small process oriented ecology into macro-scale modelling. Here, we build on previous work, breaking down key challenges of that knowledge transfer into a tangible framework, highlighting successful strategies that both modelling and ecology communities have developed to better interact with one another. We use a benthic and a pelagic case-study to illustrate how aspects of the links between biodiversity and ecosystem process have been depicted in marine ecosystem models (ERSEM and MIRO), from data, to conceptualisation and model development. We hope that this framework may help future interactions between biodiversity researchers and model developers by highlighting concrete solutions to common problems, and in this way contribute to the advance of the mechanistic understanding of the role of biodiversity in marine (and terrestrial) ecosystems.

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

Atomic data for modelling fusion and astrophysical plasmas

Trends and focii of interest in atomic modelling and data are identified in connection with recent observations and experiments in fusion and astrophysics. In the fusion domain, spectral observations are included of core, beam penetrated and divertor plasma. The helium beam experiments at JET and the studies with very heavy species at ASDEX and JET are noted. In the astrophysics domain, illustrations are given from the SOHO and CHANDRA spacecraft which span from the solar upper atmosphere, through soft x-rays from comets to supernovae remnants. It is shown that non-Maxwellian, dynamic and possibly optically thick regimes must be considered. The generalized collisional-radiative model properly describes the collisional regime of most astrophysical and laboratory fusion plasmas and yields self-consistent derived data for spectral emission, power balance and ionization state studies. The tuning of this method to routine analysis of the spectral observations is described. A forward look is taken as to how such atomic modelling, and the atomic data which underpin it, ought to evolve to deal with the extended conditions and novel environments of the illustrations. It is noted that atomic physics influences most aspects of fusion and astrophysical plasma behaviour but the effectiveness of analysis depends on the quality of the bi-directional pathway from fundamental data production through atomic/plasma model development to the confrontation with experiment. The principal atomic data capability at JET, and other fusion and astrophysical laboratories, is supplied via the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure (ADAS) Project. The close ties between the various experiments and ADAS have helped in this path of communication.

O processo de reconhecimento, validação e certificação de competências na (re)definição de trajectórias de desenvolvimento pessoal, social e profissional

Trabalho de projecto de mestrado, Ciências da Educação (Formação de Adultos), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2011