Endogenous fisheries management in a stochastic model: Why do fishery agencies use TAC

The aim of this paper is to explain under which circumstances using TACs as instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be interesting from a regulatory point of view. In order to do this, the deterministic analysis of Homans and Wilen (1997)and Anderson (2000) is extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting endogenous stochastic model is numerically solved for finding the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highligted from simulations. First, the higher the uncertainty about the state of the stock is, the lower the probability of closing the fishery is. Second, the use of TACs as management instrument in fisheries already regulated with fishing periods leads to: i) An increase of the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high number of licences, ii) An improvement of the biological and economic variables when the size of the fleet is large; and iii) Eliminate the extinction risk for the resource. And third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences and do not restrict the season length.

Contribution of Resource-Based View and Entrepreneurial Orientation on Small Firm Growth

[EN] This research provides a useful framework for identifying a small firms’ propensity to engage in entrepreneurial orientation. We examine the impact of the Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) as a main resource and capability on small firm’ growth. The growth seems to come out as an important demonstration of the entrepreneurial orientation of small firms (Davidsson, 1989; Green and Brown, 1997; Janney and Gregory, 2006). Thus, this research builds on prior conceptual research that suggests a positive integration between entrepreneurial orientation and resource-based view. In the first instance, the research will focus on reviewing literature in the emerging area of entrepreneurial orientation as it applies to growth oriented small firms and resource-based view of the firm. Secondly, an empirical study was developed based on a stratified sample of small firms of manufacturing industry. Data were submitted to a multivariate statistical analysis and a linear regression model was performed in order to predict the influence of the resources and capabilities on small firms’ growth. In this sense, we consider the construct growth as a dependent variable and the ones relates with resources and capabilities (entrepreneur resources, firm resources, networks and EO) as independent variables. The research results suggest a set of resources and capabilities that promote the growth of the small firms. Also, the EO seems to have a predictive value on growth. Explaining variables related with resources and capabilities and EO were identified as essential in growth oriented small firms. It was still possible to conclude that the entrepreneurial firms which grew seem to have resources and develop more capabilities and take advantage in the search for those competences. This attitude reflects on the EO of the firm. This study has important implication for both researchers and practitioners. It highlights the necessity of firms to develop superior EO of all their members and also to invest on better resources and consequently superior capabilities as a way of reaching higher levels of growth. While previous authors have attempted to analyse certain aspects of this process (linkage between entrepreneurial orientation and growth), this research developed a framework that combines these and others factors (resource-based view) pertinent to growth oriented small firms. The results support the necessity to identify explicative variables of multiple levels to explain the growth of small firms. The adoption of an entrepreneurial orientation as an indispensable variable to the growth oriented small firms seems pertinent.

The biological sense of smell: olfactory search behavior and a metabolic view for olfactory perception

Part I of the thesis describes the olfactory searching and scanning behaviors of rats in a wind tunnel, and a detailed movement analysis of terrestrial arthropod olfactory scanning behavior. Olfactory scanning behaviors in rats may be a behavioral correlate to hippocampal place cell activity.

Part II focuses on the organization of olfactory perception, what it suggests about a natural order for chemicals in the environment, and what this in tum suggests about the organization of the olfactory system. A model of odor quality space (analogous to the "color wheel") is presented. This model defines relationships between odor qualities perceived by human subjects based on a quantitative similarity measure. Compounds containing Carbon, Nitrogen, or Sulfur elicit odors that are contiguous in this odor representation, which thus allows one to predict the broad class of odor qualities a compound is likely to elicit. Based on these findings, a natural organization for olfactory stimuli is hypothesized: the order provided by the metabolic process. This hypothesis is tested by comparing compounds that are structurally similar, perceptually similar, and metabolically similar in a psychophysical cross-adaptation paradigm. Metabolically similar compounds consistently evoked shifts in odor quality and intensity under cross-adaptation, while compounds that were structurally similar or perceptually similar did not. This suggests that the olfactory system may process metabolically similar compounds using the same neural pathways, and that metabolic similarity may be the fundamental metric about which olfactory processing is organized. In other words, the olfactory system may be organized around a biological basis.

The idea of a biological basis for olfactory perception represents a shift in how olfaction is understood. The biological view has predictive power while the current chemical view does not, and the biological view provides explanations for some of the most basic questions in olfaction, that are unanswered in the chemical view. Existing data do not disprove a biological view, and are consistent with basic hypotheses that arise from this viewpoint.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

30 p.

A GIS-based model of soil erosion and transport

Soil erosion is a natural process that occurs when the force of wind, raindrops or running water on the soil surface exceeds the cohesive forces that bind the soil together. In general, vegetation cover protects the soil from the effects of these erosive forces. However, land management activities such as ploughing, burning or heavy grazing may disturb this protective layer, exposing the underlying soil. The decision making process in rural catchment management is often supported by the predictive modelling of soil erosion and sediment transport processes within the catchment, using established techniques such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation [USLE] and the Agricultural Nonpoint Source pollution model [AGNPS]. In this article, the authors examine the range of erosion models currently available and describe the application of one of these to the Burrishoole catchment on the north-west coast of Ireland, which has suffered heavy erosion of blanket peat in recent years.

Otto Kelland’s Model Dories and the Digital Archives Initiative

Otto Kelland was a truly unique individual in Newfoundland. During his long life he had several careers from being a prison superintendant to being an instructor at Marine Institute. During his life Kelland made hundreds of wooden boat models. They are beautifuly hand-crafted and represented the type of watercraft used by fishermen in Newfoundland. The collection of boat models made by Otto Kelland and owned by Marine Institute made an ideal object to be digitalized. In particular the collection of dories was an ideal group to be digitized. They were housed in one cabinet and accompanied by hand-written documents describing each model. The Digital Archives Initiative (DAI) is a “gateway to the learning and research-based cultural resources held by Memorial University of Newfoundland and partnering organizations.” The DAI hosts a variety of collections which together reinforce the importance, past and present, of Newfoundland and Labrador's history and culture. I will give an oral presentation of the project followed by a demonstration of the Otto Kelland Dories exhibit on the Digital Archives Initiative (DAI) at Memorial University of Newfoundland. I will be happy to answer questions following my presentation.

Altered expression of Alzheimer's disease-related genes in the cerebellum of autistic patients: a model for disrupted brain connectome and therapy

Autism and Alzheimer's disease (AD) are, respectively, neurodevelopmental and degenerative diseases with an increasing epidemiological burden. The AD-associated amyloid-beta precursor protein-alpha has been shown to be elevated in severe autism, leading to the 'anabolic hypothesis' of its etiology. Here we performed a focused microarray analysis of genes belonging to NOTCH and WNT signaling cascades, as well as genes related to AD and apoptosis pathways in cerebellar samples from autistic individuals, to provide further evidence for pathological relevance of these cascades for autism. By using the limma package from R and false discovery rate, we demonstrated that 31% (116 out of 374) of the genes belonging to these pathways displayed significant changes in expression (corrected P-values <0.05), with mitochondria- related genes being the most downregulated. We also found upregulation of GRIN1, the channel-forming subunit of NMDA glutamate receptors, and MAP3K1, known activator of the JNK and ERK pathways with anti-apoptotic effect. Expression of PSEN2 (presinilin 2) and APBB1 (or F65) were significantly lower when compared with control samples. Based on these results, we propose a model of NMDA glutamate receptor-mediated ERK activation of alpha-secretase activity and mitochondrial adaptation to apoptosis that may explain the early brain overgrowth and disruption of synaptic plasticity and connectome in autism. Finally, systems pharmacology analyses of the model that integrates all these genes together (NOWADA) highlighted magnesium (Mg2+) and rapamycin as most efficient drugs to target this network model in silico. Their potential therapeutic application, in the context of autism, is therefore discussed.

Muscle wasting in myotonic dystrophies: a model of premature aging

Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1 or Steinert's disease) and type 2 (DM2) are multisystem disorders of genetic origin. Progressive muscular weakness, atrophy and myotonia are the most prominent neuromuscular features of these diseases, while other clinical manifestations such as cardiomyopathy, insulin resistance and cataracts are also common. From a clinical perspective, most DM symptoms are interpreted as a result of an accelerated aging (cataracts, muscular weakness and atrophy, cognitive decline, metabolic dysfunction, etc.), including an increased risk of developing tumors. From this point of view, DM1 could be described as a progeroid syndrome since a notable age dependent dysfunction of all systems occurs. The underlying molecular disorder in DM1 consists of the existence of a pathological (CTG) triplet expansion in the 3' untranslated region (UTR) of the Dystrophia ll/Iyotonica Protein Kinase (DMPK) gene, whereas (CCTG)n repeats in the first intron of the Cellular Nucleic acid Binding Protein/Zinc Finger Protein 9 (CNBP/ZNF9) gene cause DM2. The expansions are transcribed into (CUG)n and (CCUG)n-containing RNA, respectively, which form secondary structures and sequester RNA binding proteins, such as the splicing factor muscleblind-like protein (MBNL), forming nuclear aggregates known as foci. Other splicing factors, such as CUGBP, are also disrupted, leading to a spliceopathy of a large number of downstream genes linked to the clinical features of these diseases. Skeletal muscle regeneration relies on muscle progenitor cells, known as satellite cells, which are activated after muscle damage, and which proliferate and differentiate to muscle cells, thus regenerating the damaged tissue. Satellite cell dysfunction seems to be a common feature of both age-dependent muscle degeneration (sarcopenia) and muscle wasting in DM and other muscle degenerative diseases. This review aims to describe the cellular, molecular and macrostructural processes involved in the muscular degeneration seen in DM patients, highlighting the similarities found with muscle aging.

The activity view of inner speech

We distinguish two general approaches to inner speech (IS) the "format" and the "activity" views and defend the activity view. The format view grounds the utility of IS on features of the representational format of language, and is related to the thesis that the proper function of IS is to make conscious thinking possible. IS appears typically as a product constituted by representations of phonological features. The view also has implications for the idea that passivity phenomena in cognition may be misat-tributed IS. The activity view sees IS as a speaking activity that does not have a proper function in cognition. It simply inherits the array of functions of outer speech. We argue that it is methodologically advisable to start from this variety of uses, which suggests commonalities between internal and external activities. The format view has several problems; it has to deny "unsymbolized thinking"; it cannot easily explain how IS makes thoughts available to consciousness, and it cannot explain those uses of IS where its format features apparently play no role. The activity view not only lacks these problems but also has explanatory advantages: construing IS as an activity allows it to be integrally constituted by its content; the view is able to construe unsymbolized thinking as part of a continuum of phenomena that exploit the same mechanisms, and it offers a simple explanation for the variety of uses of IS

Learning shape priors for single view reconstruction

In this paper, we aim to reconstruct free-from 3D models from a single view by learning the prior knowledge of a specific class of objects. Instead of heuristically proposing specific regularities and defining parametric models as previous research, our shape prior is learned directly from existing 3D models under a framework based on the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM). The major contributions of the paper include: 1) a probabilistic framework for prior-based reconstruction we propose, which requires no heuristic of the object, and can be easily generalized to handle various categories of 3D objects, and 2) an attempt at automatic reconstruction of more complex 3D shapes, like human bodies, from 2D silhouettes only. Qualitative and quantitative experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficacy of our new approach. ©2009 IEEE.

Model based learning of sigma points in unscented Kalman filtering

The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a widely used method in control and time series applications. The UKF suffers from arbitrary parameters necessary for a step known as sigma point placement, causing it to perform poorly in nonlinear problems. We show how to treat sigma point placement in a UKF as a learning problem in a model based view. We demonstrate that learning to place the sigma points correctly from data can make sigma point collapse much less likely. Learning can result in a significant increase in predictive performance over default settings of the parameters in the UKF and other filters designed to avoid the problems of the UKF, such as the GP-ADF. At the same time, we maintain a lower computational complexity than the other methods. We call our method UKF-L. ©2010 IEEE.

Model based learning of sigma points in unscented Kalman filtering

The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a widely used method in control and time series applications. The UKF suffers from arbitrary parameters necessary for sigma point placement, potentially causing it to perform poorly in nonlinear problems. We show how to treat sigma point placement in a UKF as a learning problem in a model based view. We demonstrate that learning to place the sigma points correctly from data can make sigma point collapse much less likely. Learning can result in a significant increase in predictive performance over default settings of the parameters in the UKF and other filters designed to avoid the problems of the UKF, such as the GP-ADF. At the same time, we maintain a lower computational complexity than the other methods. We call our method UKF-L. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Industrial ecology at factory level - A conceptual model

Growing environmental concerns caused by natural resource depletion and pollution need to be addressed. One approach to these problems is Sustainable Development, a key concept for our society to meet present as well as future needs worldwide. Manufacturing clearly has a major role to play in the move towards a more sustainable society. However it appears that basic principles of environmental sustainability are not systematically applied, with practice tending to focus on local improvements. The aim of the work presented in this paper is to adopt a more holistic view of the factory unit to enable opportunities for wider improvement. This research analyses environmental principles and industrial practice to develop a conceptual manufacturing ecosystem model as a foundation to improve environmental performance. The model developed focuses on material, energy and waste flows to better understand the interactions between manufacturing operations, supporting facilities and surrounding buildings. The research was conducted in three steps: (1) existing concepts and models for industrial sustainability were reviewed and environmental practices in manufacturing were collected and analysed; (2) gaps in knowledge and practice were identified; (3) the outcome is a manufacturing ecosystem model based on industrial ecology (IE). This conceptual model has novelty in detailing IE application at factory level and integrating all resource flows. The work is a base on which to build quantitative modelling tools to seek integrated solutions for lower resource input, higher resource productivity, fewer wastes and emissions, and lower operating cost within the boundary of a factory unit. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.