Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Assessment of the CMD Mini-Explorer, a new low-frequency multi-coil electromagnetic device, for archaeological investigations

In this article we assess the abilities of a new electromagnetic (EM) system, the CMD Mini-Explorer, for prospecting of archaeological features in Ireland and the UK. The Mini-Explorer is an EM probe which is primarily aimed at the environmental/geological prospecting market for the detection of pipes and geology. It has long been evident from the use of other EM devices that such an instrument might be suitable for shallow soil studies and applicable for archaeological prospecting. Of particular interest for the archaeological surveyor is the fact that the Mini-Explorer simultaneously obtains both quadrature (‘conductivity’) and in-phase (relative to ‘magnetic susceptibility’) data from three depth levels. As the maximum depth range is probably about 1.5 m, a comprehensive analysis of the subsoil within that range is possible. As with all EM devices the measurements require no contact with the ground, thereby negating the problem of high contact resistance that often besets earth resistance data during dry spells. The use of the CMD Mini-Explorer at a number of sites has demonstrated that it has the potential to detect a range of archaeological features and produces high-quality data that are comparable in quality to those obtained from standard earth resistance and magnetometer techniques. In theory the ability to measure two phenomena at three depths suggests that this type of instrument could reduce the number of poor outcomes that are the result of single measurement surveys. The high success rate reported here in the identification of buried archaeology using a multi-depth device that responds to the two most commonly mapped geophysical phenomena has implications for evaluation style surveys. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Use of the mini nutritional assessment tool in elderly people from long-term institutions of southeast of Brazil

Background: the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) is a multidimensional method of nutritional evaluation that allows the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in elderly people, it is important to mention that this method has not been well studied in Brazil. Objective: to verify the use of the MNA in elderly people that has been living in long term institutions for elderly people. Design: transversal study. Participants: 89 people (>= 60 years), being 64.0% men. The average of age for both genders was 73.7 +/- 9.1 years old, being 72.8 +/- 8.9 years old for men, and 75.3 +/- 9.3 years old for women. Setting: long-term institutions for elderly people located in the Southeast of Brazil. Methods: it was calculated the sensibility, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. It was data to set up a ROC curve to verify the accuracy of the MNA. The variable used as a ""standard"" for the nutritional diagnosis of the elderly people was the corrected arm muscle area because it is able to provide information or an estimative of the muscle reserve of a person being considered a good indicator of malnutrition in elderly people. Results: the sensibility was 84.0%, the specificity was 36.0%, the positive predictive value was 77.0%, and the negative predictive value was 47.0%; the area of the ROC curve was 0.71 (71.0%). Conclusion: the MNA method has showed accuracy, and sensibility when dealing with the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in institutionalized elderly groups of the Southeastern region of Brazil, however, it presented a low specificity.

Stress distribution in orthodontic mini-implants

The objective of this study was to evaluate the stress distribution in the resin in contact with the spirals of cylindrical and conical mini-implants, when submitted to lateral load and insertion torsion. A photoelastic model was fabricated using transparent gelatin to simulate the alveolar bone. The model was observed with a plane polariscope and photographically recorded before and after activation of the two screws with a lateral force and torsion. The lateral force application caused bending moments on both mini-implants, with the uprising of fringes or isochromatics, characteristics of stresses, along the threads of the mini-implants and in the apex. When the torsion was exerted in the mini-implants, a great concentration of stress upraised close to the apex. The conclusion was that, comparing conical with cylindrical mini-implants under lateral load, the stresses were similar on the traction sides. The differences appear (1) on the apex, where the cylindrical mini-implant showed a greater concentration of stress, and (2) along the spirals, in the compression side, where the conical mini-implant showed a greater concentration of stress. The greater part of the stress produced by both mini-implants, after torsion load in insertion, were concentrated on the apex. With the cylindrical mini-implant, the greater concentration of tension was close to the apex, while with the conical one, the stresses were distributed along a greater amount of apical threads.

The Trojan horse method in nuclear astrophysics: recent results

Difficulties in cross-section measurements at very low energies, when charged particles are involved, led to the development of some indirect methods. The Trojan horse method (THM) allows us to bypass the Coulomb effects and has been successfully applied to several reactions of astrophysical interest. A brief review of the THM applications is reported together with some of the most recent results.

Indirect study of (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions at astrophysical energies by means of the Trojan Horse Method: recent results

Nuclear (p,alpha) reactions destroying the so-called ""light-elements"" lithium, beryllium and boron have been largely studied in the past mainly because their role in understanding some astrophysical phenomena, i.e. mixing-phenomena occurring in young F-G stars [1]. Such mechanisms transport the surface material down to the region close to the nuclear destruction zone, where typical temperatures of the order of similar to 10(6) K are reached. The corresponding Gamow energy E(0)=1.22 (Z(x)(2)Z(X)(2)T(6)(2))(1/3) [2] is about similar to 10 keV if one considers the ""boron-case"" and replaces in the previous formula Z(x) = 1, Z(X) = 5 and T(6) = 5. Direct measurements of the two (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions in correspondence of this energy region are difficult to perform mainly because the combined effects of Coulomb barrier penetrability and electron screening [3]. The indirect method of the Trojan Horse (THM) [4-6] allows one to extract the two-body reaction cross section of interest for astrophysics without the extrapolation-procedures. Due to the THM formalism, the extracted indirect data have to be normalized to the available direct ones at higher energies thus implying that the method is a complementary tool in solving some still open questions for both nuclear and astrophysical issues [7-12].

Trojan Horse Method: a useful tool for electron screening effect investigation

Direct measurements in the last decades have highlighted a new problem related to the lowering of the Coulomb barrier between the interacting nuclei due to the presence of the ""electron screening"" in the laboratory measurements. It was systematically observed that the presence of the electronic cloud around the interacting ions in measurements of nuclear reactions cross sections at astrophysical energies gives rise to an enhancement of the astrophysical S(E)-factor as lower and lower energies are explored [1]. Moreover, at present Such an effect is not well understood as the value of the potential for screening extracted from these measurements is higher than the tipper limit of theoretical predictions (adiabatic limit). On the other hand, the electron screening potential in laboratory measurement is different from that occurring in stellar plasmas thus the quantity of interest in astrophysics is the so-called ""bare nucleus cross section"". This quantity can only be extrapolated in direct measurements. These are the reasons that led to a considerable growth on interest in indirect measurement techniques and in particular the Trojan Horse Method (THM) [2,3]. Results concerning the bare nucleus cross sections measurements will be shown in several cases of astrophysical interest. In those cases the screening potential evaluated by means of the THM will be compared with the adiabatic limit and results arising from extrapolation in direct measurements.