Controle político da burocracia no presidencialismo de coalizão

O propósito da tese é analisar em que circunstâncias presidentes brasileiros recorrem a mecanismos de controle político sobre a burocracia pública. O argumento central é que o recurso presidencial a nomeações políticas, decretos regulamentares detalhados e criação de órgãos públicos centralizados na Presidência deverá variar em função de fatores políticos e características das coalizões de governo. Por meio de nomeações políticas, presidentes podem monitorar o comportamento de servidores públicos sob a influência indesejada de ministros do gabinete. Com decretos regulamentares detalhados podem reduzir a autonomia decisória de servidores públicos na interpretação de leis vagas. Por fim, por meio da criação de órgãos públicos centralizados na Presidência, podem gerar condições mais favoráveis ao futuro controle da burocracia pública. O propósito da tese será desdobrado em três problemas de pesquisa, com desenhos orientados para variáveis. O primeiro, desenvolvido no primeiro capítulo, aborda como a heterogeneidade política da coalizão afeta o controle presidencial sobre a burocracia pública por meio de nomeações políticas. O segundo problema, discutido no capítulo seguinte, analisa como a rotatividade ministerial e a demanda pela implementação interministerial de uma mesma lei afetam o grau de detalhamento de decretos regulamentares. Por fim, o terceiro problema de pesquisa, abordado no último capítulo, avalia como a composição heterogênea dos gabinetes afeta a criação de burocracias centralizadas na Presidência da República. Por meio de métodos estatísticos, foram estimados modelos de regressão linear multivariada a fim de analisar os determinantes 1. das nomeações políticas e 2. do grau de detalhamento dos decretos regulamentares, bem como modelos de regressão logística binária para avaliar a probabilidade de centralização presidencial na criação de órgãos públicos. A politização da burocracia federal tende a aumentar quando o conflito entre parceiros da coalizão é maior, uma alternativa presidencial às orientações ministeriais indesejadas sobre a burocracia pública. Decretos regulamentares tendem a ser mais detalhados quando ministérios são mais voláteis e quando há implementação interministerial, uma alternativa presidencial à autonomia da burocracia pública. Por fim, a centralização tende a crescer quando o conflito de políticas entre presidente e ministros é maior, uma saída às orientações ministeriais nocivas às preferências do presidente.

A standard format for design and evaluation of pond experiments

Details are given of a standard format used by the Pond Dynamics/Aquaculture Collaborative Research Support Program of the US Agency for International Development for the communication of experimental ideas. An example is given of the "Preliminary Proposal Format," which contains a list of information categories or headings as follows: Title; Objectives: Significance; Experimental design; Pond facilities; Stocking rate; Other inputs; Sampling plan; Hypotheses; Statistical methods; Duration; Water management; and Schedule.

Controle Gerencial e a Tecnologia da Informação: um estudo de caso na previsão orçamentária em uma organização do setor industrial.

A evolução tecnológica tem feito as empresas se modificarem, e para acompanhar o mercado elas buscam opções que possam ajudar melhor nas tomadas de suas decisões, uma delas é a utilização de tecnologias. A presente pesquisa objetiva analisar a contribuição da tecnologia da informação no orçamento da indústria Alfa. Esta pesquisa é descritiva e exploratória, pois busca descrever a realidade da organização, identificando as características do orçamento da mesma, é quantitativa, pois busca através de métodos estatísticos realizar previsões para o ano de 2013 das demonstrações de resultados advindos dos anos anteriores (2010 a 2012), é também, qualitativa, pois foi elaborado um questionário que pôde auxiliar na interpretação dos dados quantitativos, possibilitando melhores informações sobre o objetivo proposto. Concluiu-se que a tecnologia pode ajudar a melhorar a qualidade da previsão do orçamento da indústria Alfa e o método que melhor se adequou para as estimativas foi a suavização exponencial que demonstrou maior confiabilidade para os resultados.

Do quase nada ao praticamente tudo: uma análise espacial da evolução da votação dos candidatos do Partido dos Trabalhadores à presidência no Nordeste.

Mudanças marcantes no perfil geográfico eleitoral do Brasil, no que diz respeito às eleições para Presidente da República, aconteceram no ano de 2006. Candidatos do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) que antes eram bem votados em regiões mais desenvolvidas do país, passaram a ganhar as eleições, com grande margem de preferência, nas regiões mais pobres do país. Entenda por regiões mais pobres as regiões Norte e Nordeste. Esse trabalho pretende traçar um histórico da relação eleitoral da Região Nordeste do Brasil com os candidatos do Partido dos Trabalhadores ao cargo de Presidente da República desde a redemocratização. O objetivo é entender a relação entre a opção de voto em candidatos desse partido e o desenvolvimento socioeconômico ao longo do tempo da região, levando em consideração também o programa Bolsa Família para tentar comprovar a sua racionalidade. Além disso, este trabalho faz um estudo de caso da votação da cidade de Viçosa do Ceará para exemplificar o fato de que a indução do voto para candidatos de âmbito federal por representantes locais não é mais a regra da região e sim a exceção. A investigação usa análise bibliográfica, histórica e métodos de análise estatística, principalmente, técnicas de análise espacial.

Current research in embankment dam engineering at imperial college London

This paper gives a short introduction to two research streams in embankment dam engineering underway at Imperial College London. The first is the modelling of embankment dam behaviour during earthquakes and the second is an investigation into the susceptibility of granular filters to internal erosion. The research motivation, methods and expected outcomes of each stream are discussed.

Genome-wide analysis of restriction-modification system in unicellular and filamentous cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria are an ancient group of gram-negative bacteria with strong genome size variation ranging from 1.6 to 9.1 Mb. Here, we first retrieved all the putative restriction-modification (RM) genes in the draft genome of Spirulina and then performed a range of comparative and bioinformatic analyses on RM genes from unicellular and filamentous cyanobacterial genomes. We have identified 6 gene clusters containing putative Type I RMs and 11 putative Type II RMs or the solitary methyltransferases (MTases). RT-PCR analysis reveals that 6 of 18 MTases are not expressed in Spirulina, whereas one hsdM gene, with a mutated cognate hsdS, was detected to be expressed. Our results indicate that the number of RM genes in filamentous cyanobacteria is significantly higher than in unicellular species, and this expansion of RM systems in filamentous cyanobacteria may be related to their wide range of ecological tolerance. Furthermore, a coevolutionary pattern is found between hsdM and hsdR, with a large number of site pairs positively or negatively correlated, indicating the functional importance of these pairing interactions between their tertiary structures. No evidence for positive selection is found for the majority of RMs, e. g., hsdM, hsdS, hsdR, and Type II restriction endonuclease gene families, while a group of MTases exhibit a remarkable signature of adaptive evolution. Sites and genes identified here to have been under positive selection would provide targets for further research on their structural and functional evaluations.

The experimental research of R-phycoerythrin subunits on cancer treatment: A new photosensitizer in PDT

The mouse tumor cell 5180 and human liver carcinoma cell SMC 7721 cells were first treated with R-PE and its subunits (alpha, beta, gamma subunits), then irradiated with Argon laser (496 nm, 28.8 J/cm(2)). Survival rate was measured by MTT method. In order to compare the phototoxicity in normal cells, the mouse marrow cells were treated with photofrin II and beta-subunit, irradiated with 45 J/cm(2) of light; survival rate was also measured by MTT method. The result showed that R-PE subunits had better PDT effect on s180 cells than R-PE and lower phototoxicity in marrow cells than photofrin II Flow cytometric analysis showed that PDT results in a growth inhibition and a G(0)-G(1) cell cycle arrest in SMC 7721 cells. The tumor cells inhibited by PDT in vivo were morphologically observed by TEM, the tumor cell death was daze to the occlusion of tumor blood vessels and inducement of cell programmed death in nuclei. Therefore, with the advantage in special fluorescence activity, loth molecular weight, good light absorbent character and weak phototoxicity, R-PE subunit is art attractive option for improving the selectivity of PDT.

影响生育价值观因素的研究－传统回归分析与多层线性模型分析结果的比较

Based on the research of predictors of VOC, this study explores the predictive effect of factors, such as generation, urban/rural context, collectivism/individualism orientation, family value, independent/interdependent self, adult attachment, on the Emotional and Traditional factors of VOC. Considering the hierarchical data structure of the VOC study, which resulted from the original research design, this dissertation applies Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) after using traditional regression. A comparison between the results from the tow statistical methods is made, and the results are as follows: 1) Reliability coefficients of questionnaires used in this study are satisfactory, and most of them can be used in further research. 2) Samples from different generation and urban/rural context show significant differences on the score of collectivism/individualism orientation, family value, independent/interdependent self, adult attachment, and VOC. 3) Regression equations with VOC as outcome variable differ from each other when using data from sample with restricted generation or urban/rural context. 4) Results by HLM shows that interdependent self and mother identity have positive effect on emotional factor of VOC. Emotional factor’s variation on family level is not significant. 5) Results by HLM shows that Individualism, Interdependent Self and Grandmother Identity can predict Traditional factor of VOC. Traditional factor’s variation is significant on family level, which can be explained by family income and it’s area-urban or rural. Based on the results above, the researcher concludes that a) generation identity and urban/rural context have important effect on VOC; b) Interdependent Self is an important predictive factor of VOC’s Emotional factor, which is nearly subjective to other factors; d) VOC’s traditional factor varies with other factors, which show its strong relation with culture and tradition; e) more exact results can be gotten from HLM analysis, which beyond tradition regression.

中国企业员工组织承诺研究

The research objectives were to investigate the psychological structure of employees' organizational commitments(OCs), and its antecedents, and to examine the relative effects of employees' OCs to their performances. In order to deeply uncover the nature of OCs, some standard methods, such as in-depth interview, focus-group, semi-open questionnaire, standard questionnaire etc., were employed. In data analysis, not only some common statistical methods, such as multivariate analysis of variance, cross-table analysis, factor analysis, but also some forefront ones, such as confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis of SEM, were used. The paper covers six chapters: 1) In the first chapter, Firstly some previous empirical studies, which examined structures, antecedents, correlates, and/or consequences of organizational commitment in China and Western countries, were summarized. This summary covers most of the respectable researchers' works of this field, such as H.S.Becker, B.Buchanan, L.W.Porter, G. Ritzer, H.M.Trice, J.A.Alutto, L.G.Hrebiniak, R.T.Mowday, J.P.Meyer, N.J.Allen, G.W.McGee, R.C.Ford, R.Eisenberger, etc. Then three theoretical hypothesis were put forward as following: ① In China, OCs should be multidimensional psychological structures, which means there should exist more than one type of OCs; ② There should be some different antecedents to different OCs; ③ Employees with different types of OC should perform differently in their works. Finally the theoretical and practical significance were discussed. 2) In the second chapter, great efforts were made to investigate the OC types. Firstly, in-depth interview with managers and employees, semi-open questionnaire, and some other methods were used in the pilot research to gather much qualitative material. Then OC questionnaire was designed to get quantitative data in about 20 enterprises, including state-owned, collective-owned, wholly foreign-funded, and joint-ventures. During revising of this questionnaire, there were about 5000 samples surveyed. after factor analysis, the data shows that there should be 5 types of OCs in China, which were respectively named as Affective Commitment, Normative commitment, Ideal Commitment, Economic Commitment, Choice Commitment. Thirdly, confirmatory factor analysis method was used to successfully confirm this 5-factor model. Finally, Cronbach a and test-retest correlate indicate that this questionnaire is reliable. Since factor analysis result has show its construct validity, a simple criterion-related validity research was conducted. 3) In order to investigate the correlation between different OC and employee performance and different antecedents of OC, 5 other questionnaires, such as Employee Satisfaction Questionnaire, Perceived Organizational Support Questionnaire, Social Exchange Questionnaire, Altruism Scale, and Leader Confidence Scale were revised in the third chapter. 4)In the fourth chapter, a lot of correlates, cross-table analysis were conducted to show the correlation between different OCs and 10 performances, which indicate employees with different OCs will show different performance in 10 variables, such as altruism, etc. 5) In the fifth chapter, correlate analysis, multivariate of analysis, and path analysis of SEM were used to investigate the antecedents of OC. A satisfactory model showing the correlation between OC and their antecedents was confirmed. 6) In the last chapter, all researches about OC, and its limitations were summarized.

Statistical method of modeling and optimization for wireless sensor nodes with different interconnect technologies and substrates

A comparison study was carried out between a wireless sensor node with a bare die flip-chip mounted and its reference board with a BGA packaged transceiver chip. The main focus is the return loss (S parameter S11) at the antenna connector, which was highly depended on the impedance mismatch. Modeling including the different interconnect technologies, substrate properties and passive components, was performed to simulate the system in Ansoft Designer software. Statistical methods, such as the use of standard derivation and regression, were applied to the RF performance analysis, to see the impacts of the different parameters on the return loss. Extreme value search, following on the previous analysis, can provide the parameters' values for the minimum return loss. Measurements fit the analysis and simulation well and showed a great improvement of the return loss from -5dB to -25dB for the target wireless sensor node.

Irish Times coverage of Irish relief and development nongovernmental organisations, legitimacy and accountability, 1994-2009: analysis and implications for the role of nongovernmental organisations

The overall aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which and ways in which Irish relief and development nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) were linked with the concepts of legitimacy and accountability in Irish Times newspaper coverage between 1994 and 2009. This research was based on a quantitative content analysis of 215 Irish Times articles and the results were analysed using statistical methods. Key findings of the research included that NGO accountability received significantly more coverage than NGO legitimacy, "principal-agent" approaches to NGO accountability received significantly more coverage than "stakeholder" approaches to NGO accountability, and questioning of NGOs based on either their accountability or legitimacy was very limited. It is suggested that these findings may indicate both a failure by Irish NGOs to promote "development literacy" and global solidarity among the Irish public, and a limited degree of "development literacy" and global solidarity among the Irish public.

Hospital clinicians information behaviour and attitudes towards the 'Clinical Informationist': an Irish survey

Background: Hospital clinicians are increasingly expected to practice evidence-based medicine (EBM) in order to minimize medical errors and ensure quality patient care, but experience obstacles to information-seeking. The introduction of a Clinical Informationist (CI) is explored as a possible solution. Aims:  This paper investigates the self-perceived information needs, behaviour and skill levels of clinicians in two Irish public hospitals. It also explores clinicians perceptions and attitudes to the introduction of a CI into their clinical teams. Methods: A questionnaire survey approach was utilised for this study, with 22 clinicians in two hospitals. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics. Results: Analysis showed that clinicians experience diverse information needs for patient care, and that barriers such as time constraints and insufficient access to resources hinder their information-seeking. Findings also showed that clinicians struggle to fit information-seeking into their working day, regularly seeking to answer patient-related queries outside of working hours. Attitudes towards the concept of a CI were predominantly positive. Conclusion: This paper highlights the factors that characterise and limit hospital clinicians information-seeking, and suggests the CI as a potentially useful addition to the clinical team, to help them to resolve their information needs for patient care.

Qualitative analysis of the interdisciplinary interaction between data analysis specialists and novice clinical researchers.

BACKGROUND: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of "what if" situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.

Comparative effectiveness studies to improve clinical outcomes in end stage renal disease: the DEcIDE patient outcomes in end stage renal disease study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is lacking to inform providers' and patients' decisions about many common treatment strategies for patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS/DESIGN: The DEcIDE Patient Outcomes in ESRD Study is funded by the United States (US) Agency for Health Care Research and Quality to study the comparative effectiveness of: 1) antihypertensive therapies, 2) early versus later initiation of dialysis, and 3) intravenous iron therapies on clinical outcomes in patients with ESRD. Ongoing studies utilize four existing, nationally representative cohorts of patients with ESRD, including (1) the Choices for Healthy Outcomes in Caring for ESRD study (1041 incident dialysis patients recruited from October 1995 to June 1999 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2009), (2) the Dialysis Clinic Inc (45,124 incident dialysis patients initiating and receiving their care from 2003-2010 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2010), (3) the United States Renal Data System (333,308 incident dialysis patients from 2006-2009 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2010), and (4) the Cleveland Clinic Foundation Chronic Kidney Disease Registry (53,399 patients with chronic kidney disease with outcome ascertainment from 2005 through 2009). We ascertain patient reported outcomes (i.e., health-related quality of life), morbidity, and mortality using clinical and administrative data, and data obtained from national death indices. We use advanced statistical methods (e.g., propensity scoring and marginal structural modeling) to account for potential biases of our study designs. All data are de-identified for analyses. The conduct of studies and dissemination of findings are guided by input from Stakeholders in the ESRD community. DISCUSSION: The DEcIDE Patient Outcomes in ESRD Study will provide needed evidence regarding the effectiveness of common treatments employed for dialysis patients. Carefully planned dissemination strategies to the ESRD community will enhance studies' impact on clinical care and patients' outcomes.

R Markdown: Integrating A Reproducible Analysis Tool into Introductory Statistics

Nolan and Temple Lang argue that “the ability to express statistical computations is an es- sential skill.” A key related capacity is the ability to conduct and present data analysis in a way that another person can understand and replicate. The copy-and-paste workflow that is an artifact of antiquated user-interface design makes reproducibility of statistical analysis more difficult, especially as data become increasingly complex and statistical methods become increasingly sophisticated. R Markdown is a new technology that makes creating fully-reproducible statistical analysis simple and painless. It provides a solution suitable not only for cutting edge research, but also for use in an introductory statistics course. We present experiential and statistical evidence that R Markdown can be used effectively in introductory statistics courses, and discuss its role in the rapidly-changing world of statistical computation.