Error and complexity of random walk Monte Carlo radiosity

The author studies the error and complexity of the discrete random walk Monte Carlo technique for radiosity, using both the shooting and gathering methods. The author shows that the shooting method exhibits a lower complexity than the gathering one, and under some constraints, it has a linear complexity. This is an improvement over a previous result that pointed to an O(n log n) complexity. The author gives and compares three unbiased estimators for each method, and obtains closed forms and bounds for their variances. The author also bounds the expected value of the mean square error (MSE). Some of the results obtained are also shown

Simulating the effects of grassland management and grass ensiling on methane emission from lactating cows

A dynamic, mechanistic model of enteric fermentation was used to investigate the effect of type and quality of grass forage, dry matter intake (DMI) and proportion of concentrates in dietary dry matter (DM) on variation in methane (CH(4)) emission from enteric fermentation in dairy cows. The model represents substrate degradation and microbial fermentation processes in rumen and hindgut and, in particular, the effects of type of substrate fermented and of pH oil the production of individual volatile fatty acids and CH, as end-products of fermentation. Effects of type and quality of fresh and ensiled grass were evaluated by distinguishing two N fertilization rates of grassland and two stages of grass maturity. Simulation results indicated a strong impact of the amount and type of grass consumed oil CH(4) emission, with a maximum difference (across all forage types and all levels of DM 1) of 49 and 77% in g CH(4)/kg fat and protein corrected milk (FCM) for diets with a proportion of concentrates in dietary DM of 0.1 and 0.4, respectively (values ranging from 10.2 to 19.5 g CH(4)/kg FCM). The lowest emission was established for early Cut, high fertilized grass silage (GS) and high fertilized grass herbage (GH). The highest emission was found for late cut, low-fertilized GS. The N fertilization rate had the largest impact, followed by stage of grass maturity at harvesting and by the distinction between GH and GS. Emission expressed in g CH(4)/kg FCM declined oil average 14% with an increase of DMI from 14 to 18 kg/day for grass forage diets with a proportion of concentrates of 0.1, and on average 29% with an increase of DMI from 14 to 23 kg/day for diets with a proportion of concentrates of 0.4. Simulation results indicated that a high proportion of concentrates in dietary DM may lead to a further reduction of CH, emission per kg FCM mainly as a result of a higher DM I and milk yield, in comparison to low concentrate diets. Simulation results were evaluated against independent data obtained at three different laboratories in indirect calorimetry trials with COWS consuming GH mainly. The model predicted the average of observed values reasonably, but systematic deviations remained between individual laboratories and root mean squared prediction error was a proportion of 0.12 of the observed mean. Both observed and predicted emission expressed in g CH(4)/kg DM intake decreased upon an increase in dietary N:organic matter (OM) ratio. The model reproduced reasonably well the variation in measured CH, emission in cattle sheds oil Dutch dairy farms and indicated that oil average a fraction of 0.28 of the total emissions must have originated from manure under these circumstances.

A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

Modelagem não-paramétrica da dinâmica da taxa de juros instantânea utilizando contratos futuros da taxa média dos depósitos interfinanceiros de 1 dia (DI1)

Modelos de predição baseados em estimações não-paramétricas continuam em desenvolvimento e têm permeado a comunidade quantitativa. Sua principal característica é que não consideram a priori distribuições de probabilidade conhecidas, mas permitem que os dados passados sirvam de base para a construção das próprias distribuições. Implementamos para o mercado brasileiro os estimadores agrupados não-paramétricos de Sam e Jiang (2009) para as funções de drift e de difusão do processo estocástico da taxa de juros instantânea, por meio do uso de séries de taxas de juros de diferentes maturidades fornecidas pelos contratos futuros de depósitos interfinanceiros de um dia (DI1). Os estimadores foram construídos sob a perspectiva da estimação por núcleos (kernels), que requer para a sua otimização um formato específico da função-núcleo. Neste trabalho, foi usado o núcleo de Epanechnikov, e um parâmetro de suavizamento (largura de banda), o qual é fundamental para encontrar a função de densidade de probabilidade ótima que forneça a estimação mais eficiente em termos do MISE (Mean Integrated Squared Error - Erro Quadrado Integrado Médio) no momento de testar o modelo com o tradicional método de validação cruzada de k-dobras. Ressalvas são feitas quando as séries não possuem os tamanhos adequados, mas a quebra estrutural do processo de difusão da taxa de juros brasileira, a partir do ano 2006, obriga à redução do tamanho das séries ao custo de reduzir o poder preditivo do modelo. A quebra estrutural representa um processo de amadurecimento do mercado brasileiro que provoca em grande medida o desempenho insatisfatório do estimador proposto.

Metodologia para avaliação de rodovias extraídas computacionalmente em imagens digitais

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Single fluoroscopic image based 2D/3D reconstruction of a scaled, patient-specific vertebral model

Purpose Accurate three-dimensional (3D) models of lumbar vertebrae can enable image-based 3D kinematic analysis. The common approach to derive 3D models is by direct segmentation of CT or MRI datasets. However, these have the disadvantages that they are expensive, timeconsuming and/or induce high-radiation doses to the patient. In this study, we present a technique to automatically reconstruct a scaled 3D lumbar vertebral model from a single two-dimensional (2D) lateral fluoroscopic image. Methods Our technique is based on a hybrid 2D/3D deformable registration strategy combining a landmark-to-ray registration with a statistical shape model-based 2D/3D reconstruction scheme. Fig. 1 shows different stages of the reconstruction process. Four cadaveric lumbar spine segments (total twelve lumbar vertebrae) were used to validate the technique. To evaluate the reconstruction accuracy, the surface models reconstructed from the lateral fluoroscopic images were compared to the associated ground truth data derived from a 3D CT-scan reconstruction technique. For each case, a surface-based matching was first used to recover the scale and the rigid transformation between the reconstructed surface model Results Our technique could successfully reconstruct 3D surface models of all twelve vertebrae. After recovering the scale and the rigid transformation between the reconstructed surface models and the ground truth models, the average error of the 2D/3D surface model reconstruction over the twelve lumbar vertebrae was found to be 1.0 mm. The errors of reconstructing surface models of all twelve vertebrae are shown in Fig. 2. It was found that the mean errors of the reconstructed surface models in comparison to their associated ground truths after iterative scaled rigid registrations ranged from 0.7 mm to 1.3 mm and the rootmean squared (RMS) errors ranged from 1.0 mm to 1.7 mm. The average mean reconstruction error was found to be 1.0 mm. Conclusion An accurate, scaled 3D reconstruction of the lumbar vertebra can be obtained from a single lateral fluoroscopic image using a statistical shape model based 2D/3D reconstruction technique. Future work will focus on applying the reconstructed model for 3D kinematic analysis of lumbar vertebrae, an extension of our previously-reported imagebased kinematic analysis. The developed method also has potential applications in surgical planning and navigation.

Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

Trends of mean and extreme temperature indices since 1874 at low-elevation sites in the Southern Alps

We describe the recovery of three daily meteorological records for the southern Alps (Domodossola, Riva del Garda, and Rovereto), all starting in the second half of the nineteenth century. We use these new data, along with additional records, to study regional changes in the mean temperature and extreme indices of heat waves and cold spells frequency and duration over the period 1874–2015. The records are homogenized using subdaily cloud cover observations as a constraint for the statistical model, an approach that has never been applied before in the literature. A case study based on a record of parallel observations between a traditional meteorological window and a modern screen shows that the use of cloud cover can reduce the root-mean-square error of the homogenization by up to 30% in comparison to an unaided statistical correction. We find that mean temperature in the southern Alps has increased by 1.4°C per century over the analyzed period, with larger increases in daily minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures. The number of hot days in summer has more than tripled, and a similar increase is observed in duration of heat waves. Cold days in winter have dropped at a similar rate. These trends are mainly caused by climate change over the last few decades.

Video Prioritization for Unequal Error Protection

We analyze the effect of packet losses in video sequences and propose a lightweight Unequal Error Protection strategy which, by choosing which packet is discarded, reduces strongly the Mean Square Error of the received sequence

Western Hemisphere, 1740 (Image 1 of 2) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte nouvelle de la mer du Sud : dressée par ordre des principaux directeurs & tirée des memoires les plus recents et des relations des navigateurs les plus modernes, tant de France, que d'Espagne l'on ÿa joint, diverses remarques curieuses par raport aux decouvertes des graduations des manierres du pais que de la navigation. It was published by Donné au public, par And. & Henry de Leth ... sur le Pont de la Bourse au Pescheur ca. 1740. Scale [ca. 1:30,000,000]. Covers the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and the Americas, with parts of Asia, Australia, Europe, and Africa. This layer is image 1 of 2 total images of the two sheet source map representing the western portion of the map. Text in French, Dutch, and Latin. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'Mercator' projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. Note: The central meridian of this map is not the same as the Prime Meridian and may wrap the International Date Line or overlap itself when displayed in GIS software. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief is shown pictorially. Includes historical and cultural notes, view of "Fort au Cap de Bonne Esperance," and other ill. Insets: Vera-cruz -- Baye de Rio Janeiro -- La Havane ... -- Le Detroit de Gibaltar -- La ville de Mexico -- Istme de Panama ou de Darien -- Baye de Porto Bello. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection and the Harvard University Library as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Organizing Our World: Sponsored Exploration and Scientific Discovery in the Modern Age. Maps selected for the project correspond to various expeditions and represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Western Hemisphere, 1740 (Image 2 of 2) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte nouvelle de la mer du Sud : dressée par ordre des principaux directeurs & tirée des memoires les plus recents et des relations des navigateurs les plus modernes, tant de France, que d'Espagne l'on ÿa joint, diverses remarques curieuses par raport aux decouvertes des graduations des manierres du pais que de la navigation. It was published by Donné au public, par And. & Henry de Leth ... sur le Pont de la Bourse au Pescheur ca. 1740. Scale [ca. 1:30,000,000]. Covers the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and the Americas, with parts of Asia, Australia, Europe, and Africa. This layer is image 2 of 2 total images of the two sheet source map representing the eastern portion of the map. Text in French, Dutch, and Latin. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to a non-standard 'Mercator' projection with the central meridian at 172.66600 degrees west. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. Note: The central meridian of this map is not the same as the Prime Meridian and may wrap the International Date Line or overlap itself when displayed in GIS software. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief is shown pictorially. Includes historical and cultural notes, view of "Fort au Cap de Bonne Esperance," and other ill. Insets: Vera-cruz -- Baye de Rio Janeiro -- La Havane ... -- Le Detroit de Gibaltar -- La ville de Mexico -- Istme de Panama ou de Darien -- Baye de Porto Bello. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection and the Harvard University Library as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Organizing Our World: Sponsored Exploration and Scientific Discovery in the Modern Age. Maps selected for the project correspond to various expeditions and represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Chile and Argentina, 1779 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte du Chili méridional, du Rio de la Plata des Patagons, et du Détroit de Magellan : ce qui fait l'extremité australe de l'Amérique Meridle., par le sr. d'Anville. It was published by P. Santini in 1779. Scale [ca. 1:6,500,000]. Covers southern South America including portions of Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and the Falkland Islands. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to a non-standard 'World Sinusoidal' projection with the central meridian at 58.000000 degrees west. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief is shown pictorially. Includes note. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection and the Harvard University Library as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Organizing Our World: Sponsored Exploration and Scientific Discovery in the Modern Age. Maps selected for the project correspond to various expeditions and represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Central South America, 1779 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte qui représente la parte méridionale du Brésil et du Pérou, le Chili septentrional et le Paraguay : ce qui fait la partie de milieu de L'Amérique Méridionale, par le sr. d'Anville. It was published by P. Santini, Chez M. Remondini in 1779. Scale [ca. 1:6,500,000]. Covers the central part of South America including parts of Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to a non-standard 'World Sinusoidal' projection with the central meridian at 58.000000 degrees west. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief is shown pictorially. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection and the Harvard University Library as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Organizing Our World: Sponsored Exploration and Scientific Discovery in the Modern Age. Maps selected for the project correspond to various expeditions and represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Liverpool, England, 1889 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan of the Mersey docks and harbour estate with part of the city of Liverpool. It was published in 1889. Scale [ca. 1:10,750]. Covers portions of Liverpool and Birkenhead, England. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'British National Grid' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, railroads, drainage, built-up areas and selected buildings and industries, canals, docks, wharves, city districts, ground cover, parks and more. Includes list of references to excursions, places of interest and to wards in Birkenhead. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Liverpool, England, 1900 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Bacon's plan of Liverpool : divided into 1/4 mile squares. It was published by G.W. Bacon & Co. in 1900. Scale [ca. 1:10,560]. Covers Liverpool, England. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'British National Grid' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, railroads and stations, drainage, built-up areas and selected buildings and industries, canals, docks, wharves, parks and more. Includes insets: Key map showing wards -- Continuation north on same scale. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.