Twelve-Month Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Rapid-cycling bipolar disorder: cross-national community study

Background The epidemiology of rapid-cycling bipolar disorder in the community is largely unknown. Aims To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of rapid cycling and non-rapid-cycling bipolar disorder in a large cross-national community sample. Method The Composite International Diagnostic interview (CIDI version 3.0) was used to examine the prevalence, severity, comorbidity, impairment, suicidality, sociodemographics, childhood adversity and treatment of rapid-cycling and non-rapid-cycling bipolar disorder in ten countries (n=54257). Results The 12-month prevalence of rapid-cycling bipolar disorder was 0.3%. Roughly a third and two-fifths of participants with lifetime and 12-month bipolar disorder respectively met criteria for rapid cycling. Compared with the non-rapid-cycling, rapid-cycling bipolar disorder was associated with younger age at onset, higher persistence, more severe depressive symptoms, greater impairment from depressive symptoms, more out-of-role days from mania/hypomania, more anxiety disorders and an increased likelihood of using health services. Associations regarding childhood, family and other sociodemographic correlates were less clear cut. Conclusions The community epidemiological profile of rapid-cycling bipolar disorder confirms most but not all current clinically based knowledge about the illness. Declaration of interest R.C.K. has been a consultant for GlaxoSmithKline Inc, Kaiser Permanente, Pfizer Inc, Sanofi-Aventis, Shire Pharmaceuticals and Wyeth-Ayerst; has served on advisory boards for Eli Lilly & Company and Wyeth-Ayerst, and has had research support for his epidemiological studies from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly & Company, GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals, Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceuticals Inc, Pfizer Inc and Sanofi-Avertis.

Genotype and mating type distribution within clinical Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii isolates from patients with cryptococcal meningitis in Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil

We molecularly characterized 81 cryptococcal isolates recovered from cerebrospinal fluid samples of 77 patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2007 as having cryptococcal meningitis in Uberaba Minas Gerais, Brazil. Fifty-seven (74%) were male with a mean age 35.6 years. Seventy-two (88.9%) of the isolates were from 68 AIDS patients and cryptococcosis was the first AIDS-defining condition in 38 (55.9%) patients. Cryptococcosis and AIDS were simultaneously diagnosed in 25 (65.8%) of these 38 patients. Genotypes were characterized through the use of URA5 restriction fragment length polymorphisms analysis, the genetic variability was determined using PCR-fingerprinting with the minisatellite-specific primer M13, and the mating type and serotypes were established by PCR. Seventy-six of the 81 isolates were Cryptococcus neoformans (93.8%), while the remaining five were C. gattii (6.1%), but all were mating type a. C. neoformans isolates were genotype VNI (serotype A), while C. gattii isolates were VGII. Four of the latter isolates were identical, but only two were from AIDS patients. Six of the nine isolates from non-AIDS patients were VNI. PCR fingerprints of the isolates from two of the three AIDS patients with clinical relapse were 100% identical. The predominance of VNI and mating type a is in accordance with data from other parts of the world. The occurrence of VGII in Minas Gerais indicates a geographical expansion within Brazil.

Oral lesions and immune reconstitution syndrome in HIV+/AIDS patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy. Epidemiological evidence

Objective: To determine whether opportunistic oral infections associated to HIV infection (OOI-HIV) are found in HIV+/AIDS patients with immune reconstitution related to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods. From among 1100 HIV+/AIDS patients (Service of Internal Medicine, Carlos Haya Hospital, Malaga, Spain) subjected to review of the oral cavity between January 1996 and May 2007, we identified those examined in 1996 and which were again examined between 1997 and 2007, and were moreover receiving HAART. The following data were collected: age, gender, form of contagion, antiretroviral therapy at the time of review, number of CD4+ lymphocytes/ml, and viral load (from 1997 onwards). We identified those subjects with an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes/ ml associated to HAART, and classified them as subjects with quantitative evidence of immune reconstitution (QEIR). Among these individuals with QEIR we moreover identified those with undetectable viral loads (QEIR+VL), and differentiated those patients with an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes > 500/ml (QEIRm+VL). In each group we determined the prevalence of OOI-HIV, following the diagnostic recommendations of the EC-Clearinghouse (CDC-Atlanta, USA - WHO). In addition, we analyzed the prevalence of OOI-HIV in the different groups in relation to the duration of HAART. Results. A total of 86 subjects were included (44 females and 42 males; 19 heterosexuals, 34 male homosexuals, and 33 intravenous drug abusers). Forty-two patients showed QEIR: 21 belonged to the QEIR+VL group, and 17 conformed the QEIRm+VL group. The prevalence of OOI-HIV per group was as follows: QEIR = 54.8%; QEIR+VL = 33%; QEIRm+VL = 35%. The most prevalent lesion in all groups was erythematous candidiasis. OOI-HIV increased with the duration of HAART (p=0.008), and were seen to be dependent upon late appearance of the mycotic lesions ( after 24 months under HAART). Conclusions: It is suggested that opportunistic oral infections associated to HIV infection form part of the clinical picture of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome, though such infections are of late onset.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.