Prevalence of antibodies to human herpesvirus-8 in populations with and without risk for infection in São Paulo State

Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) is a newly described herpesvirus that is etiologically associated with all forms of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS). Seroepidemiological studies have shown high prevalence rates of HHV-8 antibodies among men who have sex with men (MSM) and AIDS patients, African children, Brazilian Amerindians, and elderly individuals in certain regions of Europe. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of HHV-8 antibodies in healthy children and young adults from different cities in São Paulo State, and in a population at high risk for HHV-8 infection: HIV-negative MSM, and AIDS patients with and without KS. Antibodies to HHV-8 latency-associated nuclear antigen and lytic-phase antigens were detected by immunofluorescence assays. In 643 healthy children and young adults from the general population attending a vaccination program for yellow fever in ten different cities in São Paulo State, the prevalence of HHV-8 antibodies detected by the presence of latent or lytic antigens ranged from 1.0 to 4.1% in the different age groups (mean = 2.5%). In the MSM group, the prevalence was 31/95 (32.6%). In the group of patients with AIDS, the prevalence was 39.2% (51/130) for non-KS patients and 98.7% (77/78) for AIDS patients with the diagnosis of KS confirmed by histopathological examination. We conclude that HHV-8 has a restricted circulation among healthy children and young adults in the general population of São Paulo State and a high prevalence among MSM and AIDS patients.

Epstein-Barr virus infection and gastric carcinoma in São Paulo State, Brazil

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a ubiquitous herpesvirus, and most people have serological evidence of previous viral infection at adult age. EBV is associated with infectious mononucleosis and human cancers, including some lymphomas and gastric carcinomas. Although EBV was first reported in lymphoepithelioma-like gastric carcinoma, the virus was also found in conventional adenocarcinomas. In the present study, 53 gastric carcinomas diagnosed in São Paulo State, Brazil, were evaluated for EBV infection by non-isotopic in situ hybridization with a biotinylated probe (Biotin-AGACACCGTCCTCACCACCC GGGACTTGTA) directed to the viral transcript EBER-I, which is actively expressed in EBV latently infected cells. EBV infection was found in 6 of 53 (11.32%) gastric carcinomas, mostly from male patients (66.7%), with a mean age of 59 years old. Most EBV-positive tumors were in gastric antrum. Two EBV-positive tumors (33.3%) were conventional adenocarcinomas, whereas four (66.7%) were classified as lymphoepithelioma-like carcinomas. EBV infection in gastric carcinomas was reported elsewhere in frequencies that range from 5.6% (Korea) up to 18% (Germany). In Brazil, a previous work found EBV infection in 4 of 80 (5%) gastric carcinomas, whereas another study found 4.7 and 11.2% of EBV-positive gastric carcinomas of Brazilians of Japanese origin or not, respectively. In the present study, the frequency of EBV-positive gastric carcinomas is similar to that reported in other series, and the clinicopathologic characteristics of these EBV-positive tumors are in agreement with the data in the literature.

L-histidine provokes a state-dependent memory retrieval deficit in mice re-exposed to the elevated plus-maze

The effects of L-histidine (LH) on anxiety and memory retrieval were investigated in adult male Swiss Albino mice (weight 30-35 g) using the elevated plus-maze. The test was performed on two consecutive days: trial 1 (T1) and trial 2 (T2). In T1, mice received an intraperitoneal injection of saline (SAL) or LH before the test and were then injected again and retested 24 h later. LH had no effect on anxiety at the dose of 200 mg/kg since there was no difference between the SAL-SAL and LH-LH groups at T1 regarding open-arm entries (OAE) and open-arm time (OAT) (mean ± SEM; OAE: 4.0 ± 0.71, 4.80 ± 1.05; OAT: 40.55 ± 9.90, 51.55 ± 12.10, respectively; P > 0.05, Kruskal-Wallis test), or at the dose of 500 mg/kg (OAE: 5.27 ± 0.73, 4.87 ± 0.66; OAT: 63.93 ± 11.72, 63.58 ± 10.22; P > 0.05, Fisher LSD test). At T2, LH-LH animals did not reduce open-arm activity (OAE and OAT) at the dose of 200 mg/kg (T1: 4.87 ± 0.66, T2: 5.47 ± 1.05; T1: 63.58 ± 10.22; T2: 49.01 ± 8.43 for OAE and OAT, respectively; P > 0.05, Wilcoxon test) or at the dose of 500 mg/kg (T1: 4.80 ± 1.60, T2: 4.70 ± 1.04; T1: 51.55 ± 12.10, T2: 43.88 ± 10.64 for OAE and OAT, respectively; P > 0.05, Fisher LSD test), showing an inability to evoke memory 24 h later. These data suggest that LH does not act on anxiety but does induce a state-dependent memory retrieval deficit in mice.

Air pollution and cardiovascular hospital admissions in a medium-sized city in São Paulo State, Brazil

The objective of the present study was to estimate the contribution of environmental pollutants to hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease. A time series ecological study was conducted on subjects aged over 60 years and living in São José dos Campos, Brazil, with a population near 700,000 inhabitants. Hospital admission data of public health patients (SUS) were obtained from DATASUS for the period between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2006, according to the ICD-10 diagnoses I20 to I22 and I24. Particulate matter with less than 10 µm in aerodynamic diameter, sulfur dioxide and ozone were the pollutants examined, and the control variables were mean temperature and relative humidity. Data on pollutants were obtained from the São Paulo State Sanitary Agency. The generalized linear model Poisson regression with lags of up to 5 days was used. There were 1303 hospital admissions during the period. Exposure to particulate matter was significantly associated with hospitalization for cardiovascular disease 3 days after exposure (RR = 1.006; 95%CI = 1.000 to 1.010) and an increase of 16 µg/m³ was associated with a 10% increase in risk of hospitalization; other pollutants were not associated with hospitalization. Thus, it was possible to identify the role of exposure to particulate matter as an environmental pollutant in hospitalization for cardiovascular disease in a medium-sized city inSoutheastern Brazil.

Distribution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtypes in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, and subtype C identification

Few studies have reported the molecular epidemiological characterization of HIV-1 in the Northern region of Brazil. The present study reports the molecular and epidemiological characterization of 31 HIV-1 isolates from blood donors from the State of Amazonas who donated blood between April 2006 and March 2007. Serum/plasma samples from all donors were screened for HIV antibodies by ELISA and the results confirmed by Western blot analysis. Genomic DNA was extracted from the buffy coat using the Super Quik-Gene-DNA Isolation kit. Nested PCR was performed on the env, gag, and pol regions of HIV-1 using the Gene Amp PCR System 9700. Sequencing reactions were performed using the inner PCR primers and the DYEnamic™ ET Dye Terminator Kit, and phylogenetic analysis was performed using the gag, pol, and env gene sequences. We collected samples from 31 blood donors who tested positive for HIV-1 in confirmatory experiments. The male:female ratio of blood donors was 3.4:1, and the mean age was 32.4 years (range: 19 to 61 years). Phylogenetic analysis showed that subtype B is the most prevalent among Northern Brazilian HIV-1-seropositive blood donors. One HIV-1 subtype C and one circulating recombinant form (CRF_BF) of HIV-1 were identified in the State of Amazonas. This is the first study showing the occurrence of a possible "homogenous" subtype C in this region of Brazil. This finding could contribute to a better characterization of the HIV-1 strains that circulate in the country.

Biogeochemistry of Paleozoic brachiopods from New York State and Ontario

A comprehensive elemental, isotopic and microstructural analyses was undertaken of brachiopod calcites from the Hamilton Group (Middle Devonian), Clinton Group (Middle Silurian) and Middle to Upper Ordovician strata of Ontario and New York State. The majority of specimens were microstructurally and chemically preserved in a pristine state, although a number of specimens show some degree of post-depositional alteration. Brachiopod calcites from the Hamilton and Clinton Groups were altered by marine derived waters whereas Trenton Group (Middle Ordovician) brachiopods altered in meteorically derived fluids. Analysis of the elemental and isotopic compositions of pristine Hamilton Group brachiopods indicates there are several chemical relationships inherent to brachiopod calcite. Taxonomic differentiation of Mg, Sr and Na contents was evident in three co-occuring species from the Hamilton Group. Mean Mg contents of pristine brachiopods were respectively Athyris spiriferoides (1309ppm), Mucrospirifer mucronatus (1035ppm) and Mediospirifer audacula (789ppm). Similarly, taxonomic differentiation of shell calcite compositions was observed in co-occuring brachiopods from the Clinton Group (Middle Silurian) and the Trenton Group (Middle Ordovician). The taxonomic control of elemental regulation into shell calcite is probably related to the slightly different physiological systems and secretory mechanisms. A relationship was observed in Hamilton Group species between the depth of respective brachiopod communities and their Mg, Sr and Na contents. These elements were depleted in the shell calcites of deeper brachiopods compared to their counterparts in shallower reaches. Apparently shell calcite elemental composition is related to environmental conditions of the depositional setting, which may have controlled the secretory regime, mineral morphology of shell calcite and precipitation rates of each species. Despite the change in Mg, Sr and Na contents between beds and formations in response to environmental conditions, the taxonomic differentiation of shell calcite composition is maintained. Thus, it may be possible to predict relative depth changes in paleoenvironmental reconstructions using brachiopod calcite. This relationship of brachiopod chemistry to depth was also tested within a transgressiveregressive (T-R) cycle in the Rochester Shale Formation (Middle Silurian). Decreasing Mg, Sr and Na contents were observed in the transition from the shallow carbonates of the Irondequoit Formation to the deeper shales of the lowest 2 m of Rochester Shale. However, no isotopic and elemental trends were observed within the entire T-R cycle which suggests that either the water conditions did not change significantly or that the cycle is illusory. A similar relationship was observed between the Fe and Mn chemistries of shell calcite and redox/paleo-oxygen conditions. Hamilton Group brachiopods analysed from deeper areas of the shelf are enriched in Mn and Fe relative to those from shallow zones. The presence of black shales and dysaerobic faunas, during deposition of the Hamilton Group, suggests that the waters of the northern Appalachian Basin were stratified. The deeper brachiopods were marginally positioned above an oxycline and their shell calcites reflect periodic incursions of oxygen depleted water. Furthermore, analysis of Dalmanella from the black shales of the Collingwood Shale (Upper Ordovician) in comparison to those from the carbonates of the Verulam Formation (Middle Ordovician) confirm the relationship of Fe and Mn contents to periodic but not permanent incursions of low oxygen waters. The isotopic compositions of brachiopod calcite found in Hamilton Group (813C; +2.5% 0 to +5.5% 0; 8180 -2.50/00 to -4.00/00) and Clinton Group (813C; +4.00/00 to +6.0; 8180; -1.8% 0 to -3.60/ 00) are heavier than previously reported. Uncorrected paleotemperatures (assuming normal salinity, 0% 0 SMOW and no fractionation effects) derived from these isotopic values suggest that the Clinton sea temperature (Middle Silurian) ranged from 18°C to 28°C and Hamilton seas (Middle Devonian) ranged between 24°C and 29°C. In addition, the isotopic variation of brachiopod shell calcite is significant and is related to environmental conditions. Within a single time-correlative shell bed (the Demissa Bed; Hamilton Group) a positive isotopic shift of 2-2.5% 0 in 013C compositions and a positive shift of 1.0-1.50/00 in 0180 composition of shell calcite is observed, corresponding with a deepening of brachiopod habitats toward the axis of the Appalachian Basin. Moroever, a faunal succession from deeper Ambocoelia dominated brachiopod association to a shallow Tropidoleptus dominated assocation is reflected by isotopic shifts of 1.0-1.50/00. Although, other studies have emphasized the significance of ±20/oo shifts in brachiopod isotopic compositions, the recognition of isotopic variability in brachiopod calcite within single beds and within depositional settings such as the Appalachian Basin has important implications for the interpretation of secular isotopic trends. A significant proportion of the variation observed isotopic distribution during the Paleozoic is related to environmental conditions within the depositional setting.

Estimation of State Space Models and Stochastic Volatility

Ma thèse est composée de trois chapitres reliés à l'estimation des modèles espace-état et volatilité stochastique. Dans le première article, nous développons une procédure de lissage de l'état, avec efficacité computationnelle, dans un modèle espace-état linéaire et gaussien. Nous montrons comment exploiter la structure particulière des modèles espace-état pour tirer les états latents efficacement. Nous analysons l'efficacité computationnelle des méthodes basées sur le filtre de Kalman, l'algorithme facteur de Cholesky et notre nouvelle méthode utilisant le compte d'opérations et d'expériences de calcul. Nous montrons que pour de nombreux cas importants, notre méthode est plus efficace. Les gains sont particulièrement grands pour les cas où la dimension des variables observées est grande ou dans les cas où il faut faire des tirages répétés des états pour les mêmes valeurs de paramètres. Comme application, on considère un modèle multivarié de Poisson avec le temps des intensités variables, lequel est utilisé pour analyser le compte de données des transactions sur les marchés financières. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous proposons une nouvelle technique pour analyser des modèles multivariés à volatilité stochastique. La méthode proposée est basée sur le tirage efficace de la volatilité de son densité conditionnelle sachant les paramètres et les données. Notre méthodologie s'applique aux modèles avec plusieurs types de dépendance dans la coupe transversale. Nous pouvons modeler des matrices de corrélation conditionnelles variant dans le temps en incorporant des facteurs dans l'équation de rendements, où les facteurs sont des processus de volatilité stochastique indépendants. Nous pouvons incorporer des copules pour permettre la dépendance conditionnelle des rendements sachant la volatilité, permettant avoir différent lois marginaux de Student avec des degrés de liberté spécifiques pour capturer l'hétérogénéité des rendements. On tire la volatilité comme un bloc dans la dimension du temps et un à la fois dans la dimension de la coupe transversale. Nous appliquons la méthode introduite par McCausland (2012) pour obtenir une bonne approximation de la distribution conditionnelle à posteriori de la volatilité d'un rendement sachant les volatilités d'autres rendements, les paramètres et les corrélations dynamiques. Le modèle est évalué en utilisant des données réelles pour dix taux de change. Nous rapportons des résultats pour des modèles univariés de volatilité stochastique et deux modèles multivariés. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous évaluons l'information contribuée par des variations de volatilite réalisée à l'évaluation et prévision de la volatilité quand des prix sont mesurés avec et sans erreur. Nous utilisons de modèles de volatilité stochastique. Nous considérons le point de vue d'un investisseur pour qui la volatilité est une variable latent inconnu et la volatilité réalisée est une quantité d'échantillon qui contient des informations sur lui. Nous employons des méthodes bayésiennes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov pour estimer les modèles, qui permettent la formulation, non seulement des densités a posteriori de la volatilité, mais aussi les densités prédictives de la volatilité future. Nous comparons les prévisions de volatilité et les taux de succès des prévisions qui emploient et n'emploient pas l'information contenue dans la volatilité réalisée. Cette approche se distingue de celles existantes dans la littérature empirique en ce sens que ces dernières se limitent le plus souvent à documenter la capacité de la volatilité réalisée à se prévoir à elle-même. Nous présentons des applications empiriques en utilisant les rendements journaliers des indices et de taux de change. Les différents modèles concurrents sont appliqués à la seconde moitié de 2008, une période marquante dans la récente crise financière.

Dominant Mean Percentage Score Factors Of The Consumer Purchase Behaviour Of Passenger Cars

Globalization and liberalization, with the entry of many prominent foreign manufacturers, changed the automobile scenario in India, since early 1990’s. World Leaders in automobile manufacturing such as Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, Suzuki, Hyundai, Renault, Mitsubishi, Benz, BMW, Volkswagen and Nissan set up their manufacturing units in India in joint venture with their Indian counterpart companies, by making use of the Foreign Direct Investment policy of the Government of India, These manufacturers started capturing the hearts of Indian car customers with their choice of technological and innovative product features, with quality and reliability. With the multiplicity of choices available to the Indian passenger car buyers, it drastically changed the way the car purchase scenario in India and particularly in the State of Kerala. This transformed the automobile scene from a sellers’ market to buyers’ market. Car customers started developing their own personal preferences and purchasing patterns, which were hitherto unknown in the Indian automobile segment. The main purpose of this paper is to come up with the identification of possible parameters and a framework development, that influence the consumer purchase behaviour patterns of passenger car owners in the State of Kerala, so that further research could be done, based on the framework and the identified parameters.

Effect of rural transportation system on agricultural productivity in Oyo State, Nigeria

Food farming in Oyo North, Nigeria is characterised by an increasing use of Intermediary Mode of Transportation (IMT) to ease inputs and outputs mobility and farm access. To assess the influence on food farmer’s productivity, a random sample of 230 respondents was selected and data collected on their socio-economic and farm specific characteristics. Descriptive statistics, Herfindhal Index and Technical Efficiency Approach were used to analyse the data. The results indicate that majority of food farmers were in their middle age with mean age of 50 years and most of them used one plot at a location between 5 and 10km to their village of residence. They acquired land by inheritance and practiced intensive crop diversification as risk management strategy. The transportation modes used in addition to walking include bicycle, motorcycle, and car with increasing trend in the use of motorcycle. The mean Technical Efficiency (TE) of food farmers was 0.82 with significant inefficiency effects. The inefficiency analysis indicates positive effect of distance, crop diversification and un-tarred type of road on farmer’s productivity, while poor level of education among farmers, use of bicycle; trekking and weekly working time negatively affect farmer’s efficiency. The negative effect of trekking and use of bicycle and the excess working time suggest the adoption of more IMT of motorized type to optimize farming time and increase farmer’s productivity.

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability.

Correlations between microphysical properties of large-scale semi-transparent cirrus and the state of the atmosphere

By making use of TOVS Path-B satellite retrievals and ECMWF reanalyses, correlations between bulk microphysical properties of large-scale semi-transparent cirrus (visible optical thickness between 0.7 and 3.8) and thermodynamic and dynamic properties of the surrounding atmosphere have been studied on a global scale. These clouds constitute about half of all high clouds. The global averages (from 60°N to 60°S) of mean ice crystal diameter, De, and ice water path (IWP) of these clouds are 55 μm and 30 g m−2, respectively. IWP of these cirrus is slightly increasing with cloud-top temperature, whereas De of cold cirrus does not depend on this parameter. Correlations between De and IWp of large-scale cirrus seem to be different in the midlatitudes and in the tropics. However, we observe in general stronger correlations between De and IWP and atmospheric humidity and winds deduced from the ECMWF reanalyses: De and IWP increase both with increasing atmospheric water vapour. There is also a good distinction between different dynamical situations: In humid situations, IWP is on average about 10 gm−2 larger in regions with strong large-scale vertical updraft only that in regions with strong large-scale horizontal winds only, whereas the mean De of cold large-scale cirrus decreases by about 10 μm if both strong large-scale updraft and horizontal winds are present.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Vibrational energy levels for the electronic ground state of the diazocarbene (CNN) molecule

The vibrational energy levels of diazocarbene (diazomethylene) in its electronic ground state, (X) over tilde (3) Sigma(-) CNN, have been predicted using the variational method. The potential energy surfaces of (X) over tilde (3) A" CNN were determined by employing ab initio single reference coupled cluster with single and double excitations (CCSD), CCSD with perturbative triple excitations [CCSD(T)], multi-reference complete active space self-consistent-field (CASSCF), and internally contracted multi-reference configuration interaction (ICMRCI) methods. The correlation-consistent polarised valence quadruple zeta (cc-pVQZ) basis set was used. Four sets of vibrational energy levels determined from the four distinct analytical potential functions have been compared with the experimental values from the laser-induced fluorescence measurements of Wurfel et al. obtained in 1992. The CCSD, CCSD(T), and CASSCF potentials have not provided satisfactory agreement with the experimental observations. In this light, the importance of both non-dynamic (static) and dynamic correlation effects in describing the ground state of CNN is emphasised. Our best theoretical fundamental frequencies at the cc-pVQZ ICMRCI level of theory, v(1) = 1230, v(2) = 394, and v(3) = 1420 cm(-1) are in excellent agreement with the experimental values of v(1) = 1235, v(2) = 396, and v(3) = 1419cm(-1) and the mean absolute deviation between the 23 calculated and experimental vibrational energy levels is only 7.4 cm(-1). It is shown that the previously suggested observation of the v(3) frequency at about 2847cm(-1) was in fact the first overtone 2v(3).

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.